Series Talk: CDSF: Nashville Predators vs Carolina Hurricanes

[Armourboy]

Excellent point. This would easily fit under a blanket statement. There are other guys who are going to be sitting - Grimaldi, Cousins, at least one of Harpur/Gudbranson/Benning - who are also pretty legit players in the lineup, and could be covered off under a generic "tough decisions" statement.

Part of that too is they were directly asked about Tolvanen, so they were addressing the question being asked.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Looking good and actually producing of late are different things. He has ten games with 27:27 of PP time without a PP goal ... one PP secondary assist.

What is the game plan? Who is healthy? Of those healthy players who has the greatest overall potential to positively impact the game within the plan? We, as a fanbase, knew that there would be tough choices as people came back from injury.

The Canes took an average of 3.5 penalties per game and killed off 85% of those. Beating them is done 5on5 which means finding the best line combinations to do that.

Does Richardson bring that much more over Tolvanen? I don't really see Richardson as fitting in with our 4th line as currently constructed, which is more physical than defensively-oriented. Tolvanen has points on nearly half of the PP goals we scored this year.

And just because the Canes have a good PK doesn't mean we shouldn't try to put the best possible PP unit we can make out there, which IMO includes Tolvanen.

 

[Paranoid Android]

Welp- apparently Tolvanen is not practicing today, and I just saw some comments from Poile on Twitter:

"Tolvanen knows he's part of the future, but we need more consistency from him..... Hasn't come back quite as strong after injury"

He even literally said he may need to sit a game or two.

So, like like it or not, looking like he probably is not going to be in game 1.

If he's not even practicing then to me that implies he's still nursing an injury. So maybe the reasoning is two-fold.

Calling him out in public is bold move, but could also mean they think very highly of his attitude and trust he'll take it the right way.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Couple other tidbits.

 

[bdub24]

If he were living up to the Goalvanen nickname it would be one thing. One goal in his last ten games, two in his last twelve, six in his last twenty one with four of those coming in February. Since the team's turn around in results in mid-March, Tolvanen has three total PP goals. If his play on the PP is the logic to play Tolvanen then we'd need Carolina to take more penalties than the 3.5 per game they averaged during the regular season AND would need to up the conversion rate to around 25% ... against the team that had the 3rd best PK% in the league ... that is to get to about one goal a game from our PP.

Not unfair but the answer isnt Cousins and Richardson. His upside potential far outstrips any potential
cousins or richardson could dream of.

 

[101st_fan]

Does Richardson bring that much more over Tolvanen? I don't really see Richardson as fitting in with our 4th line as currently constructed, which is more physical than defensively-oriented. Tolvanen has points on nearly half of the PP goals we scored this year.

And just because the Canes have a good PK doesn't mean we shouldn't try to put the best possible PP unit we can make out there, which IMO includes Tolvanen.

Beating the Canes is done 5on5 with PP as secondary. Tolvanen had a good March with 7 of his 12 PP points coming that month ... 3 PP points in Feb. Since then, not so much. His performance against the Canes is 1 secondary assist in five games.

If the logic to play him is based on PP play, there isn't much there to support it over the past month and a half. That puts the question back to what is the overall game plan and what is the best composition of the roster to execute that plan? If Tolvanen is the better fit on one of the wings, put him in. If he isn't, sit him. Reassess after game one.

 

[101st_fan]

Not unfair but the answer isnt Cousins and Richardson. His upside potential far outstrips any potential
cousins or richardson could dream of.

Depends on the gameplan and roles each player is going to fill. He was a -7 in April alone while the team won 4 of 7 games he played in that month. He's -2 against Carolina with his one point being a secondary PP assist against them. The call out here has been his 5on5 play. He isn't producing on the PP of late. We'll see if he is the better fit for the plan against Carolina in game 1.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

The chances of our PP% hitting 25 in this series are about the same as me winning the lottery.

it may be a tough task but when Forsberg and tolvanen were clicking before the injuries, they were tops in the NHL in power play points.

 

[101st_fan]

it may be a tough task but when Forsberg and tolvanen were clicking before the injuries, they were tops in the NHL in power play points.

Tolvanen's PP success was a 17 game run from February 23rd to March 25 ... 5 of his 6 PP goals, 4 of his 6 PP assists in that run. It was an amazing, but limited, stretch.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I have zero concern with Tolvanen long term. He will get there. Asking for more at this point in his career isn't an insult or even surprise to me. I think he will get games in this series.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I'd rather see Tolvanen than almost any forward but the Herd, Granlund, Kunin, and Haula (I know, Forsberg, but he hasn't been that great since coming back either).

That said, you figure Johansen and Forsberg are automatics, so that leaves 4 spots for Arvy, Duchene, Cousins, Olivier, Richardson, Tolvanen, Rocco, etc... and I do think there's an argument that Cousins and Richardson have a lot of value 5v5 versus a team like the Canes, plus Arvy can exploit those stretch passes. Not enough spots for everyone.

 

[Predsanddead24]

My concern is a repeat of 18-19 where we can't score at all on the power play. We may have still lost that series anyways but there were a couple opportunities that a timely power play goal could have flipped a game. Tolvanen very well may still struggle and not make a difference, but the only time our power play has looked competent in the last season or more was with him on the ice.

 

[Legionnaire11]

When Tolvanen was hot on the PP was when he had that triangle attack with Forsberg and Josi. All three of them then went through various periods of injury, so who is to say Tolvanen's scoring dip was individual vs other factors? But it's not like the coach and GM wouldn't have already analyzed that, so if they think he needs to come out then I'm certain it's warranted, whether I like it or not.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Need some advice: the Preds turned their season around on the same day Julius Caesar was stabbed in the back. Should I drop $10 on the Preds to win at the Caesar's sportsbook for irony or not possibly jinx.

 

[101st_fan]

My concern is a repeat of 18-19 where we can't score at all on the power play. We may have still lost that series anyways but there were a couple opportunities that a timely power play goal could have flipped a game. Tolvanen very well may still struggle and not make a difference, but the only time our power play has looked competent in the last season or more was with him on the ice.

A legitimate concern but his PP performance since March 25 consists of 1 g, 2 secondary assists with a -7 month 5on5 in since then. There was a good 17 game run for his PP scoring but it ended six games into the latter half of the season leaving 22 games of the run from oblivion to the playoffs outside of his major PP contributions.

We start this series on the road without last change. Is his PP performance earlier in the season enough to counteract the risk of him exploited 5on5 defensively? Is his one point in May enough to justify him playing above other healthy forwards? No forward played more games than him in May but nine scored more than him. There are tough choices to start this series and some of it will come down to what have younger players done lately and what roles do they fit in accordingly. Trenin's physicality will get him a 4th line slot even without scoring. The same doesn't necessarily hold true for Tolvanen.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

my biggest takeaway from tolvanen sitting is what it means for our PP. Our PP has been bottom 5 in the league for 2-3 years now. Tolvanen and forsberg found magic for a stretch even if it was limited. if we are going on a run like 16-17, our PP is going to have to at least be at the 20-25% range. I don’t see us sniffing that without tolvanen in the lineup. no one wants arvy on that half wall.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

i think tolvanen is in the lineup as early as game 2. seems like a cop out though to single out tolvanen. what about Forsberg, johansen, ect?

I mean we are a 2 line team at this point. herd line and kunin’s line. those are our effective lines. I don’t think it’s going to matter much with the other lines as long as they don’t go too much in the negative ES.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I think Tolvanen is a negative asset at 5v5 in 2 specific areas. Controlled zone entries and gaining possession as a whole...more specifically puck battles on the boards.

 

[Armourboy]

i think tolvanen is in the lineup as early as game 2. seems like a cop out though to single out tolvanen. what about Forsberg, johansen, ect?

I mean we are a 2 line team at this point. herd line and kunin’s line. those are our effective lines. I don’t think it’s going to matter much with the other lines as long as they don’t go too much in the negative ES.

It's not a cop out he just hasn't been playing all that well since his injury and the stats bear that out.

At the end of the day if they believe he gives them the best opportunity to win he will be playing, if not he won't be. They aren't going to sit just because they want to single out Tolvanen.

Forsberg and Joey earned there spots based on previous years performance. Whether it's fair or not if those guys don't get on track we aren't going very far.

Hynes did call them out too though for what it's worth. He said on the radio this morning that anyone playing in that last game needed to show them something. Guess who that top line was?

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Major over reaction to the possibility of Tolvanen sitting a game.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Major over reaction to the possibility of Tolvanen sitting a game.

I mean it’s literally the only news today so of course people are going to talk about it more than it’s worth.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

It's not a cop out he just hasn't been playing all that well since his injury and the stats bear that out.

At the end of the day if they believe he gives them the best opportunity to win he will be playing, if not he won't be. They aren't going to sit just because they want to single out Tolvanen.

Forsberg and Joey earned there spots based on previous years performance. Whether it's fair or not if those guys don't get on track we aren't going very far.

Hynes did call them out too though for what it's worth. He said on the radio this morning that anyone playing in that last game needed to show them something. Guess who that top line was?

But are they potentially sitting? no, they’re not.

Tolvanen lighting up the PP was a big factor in Hynes even keeping his job. The injuries forced us to play the kids and it paid off mightily. i thought we were past all the loyalty to the vets.

i don’t really care who plays. i just think the one guy that breathed life into the PP should play. Tolvanen will be in there by game 2 anyways.

 

[Armourboy]

But are they potentially sitting? no, they’re not.

Tolvanen lighting up the PP was a big factor in Hynes even keeping his job. The injuries forced us to play the kids and it paid off mightily. i thought we were past all the loyalty to the vets.

i don’t really care who plays. i just think the one guy that breathed life into the PP should play. Tolvanen will be in there by game 2 anyways.

Joey never stopped playing and Forsberg was injured and isn't sitting and any though of that is flat ignorant.

Tolvanen has done relatively nothing in a month and we have still won games. If Tolvanen is who we are relying on to win a series its over already.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think the main thing here is that it is just objectively and massively clear who the better PP forward is between the guys we're likely considering. Tolvanen (2:20/g), Duchene (2:21/g), and Arvidsson (2:10/g) have all had relatively similar amounts of PP opportunity. Tolvanen has 12 pts, Duchene and Arvidsson have 3 each. Tolvanen has 7.69 PPP/60, which dwarves Arvidsson's 1.67 and Duchene's 2.26. He is basically 4 TIMES BETTER at it than they are.

I don't think we'd be putting up such a fuss if it was close, or a matter of subjective taste, or whatever. Tolvanen was #1 on our entire team on the PP. And that's including whatever cold stretch he finished on after coming back from injury.

And it also matches the eye test perfectly.

For all we know Hynes won't actually be dumb enough to sit Tolvanen. Who knows. But putting that aside, I just make the argument against the mere idea of not playing Tolvanen on PP1. The whole season just happened, it was real, and it told us in very clear terms what the answer should be. The data doesn't leave any room for argument. A coach who ignores that degree of objective evidence is really playing with fire. If he thinks he can win without a functional PP, that's a pretty bold strategy anyway.

If they aren't going to play Tolvanen, I submit that they had better pass over both Arvy and Duchene entirely and move to a next-best option. Which is probably Jarnkrok. He doesn't have the shot, but he's got some of the craftiness, low panic threshold, and smart passing that Tolvanen has. They could mirror over the umbrella in that setup perhaps.

 

[Armourboy]

We have zero idea who is going to be playing and in fact outside of the 2nd line I'm not sold any of them are guaranteed.

These are the problems depth brings you, especially when all of those options aren't exactly optimal all around.

I'm not worried about it tbh and odds are we are going to see guys move in and out. We are going to play a heavy game, we will need everyone especially if we get through the first round.