Confirmed with Link: Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) - Signed, #37

[LaxSabre]

 

[LaxSabre]

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Obligatory 5 game sample disclaimer.

P/60: 1st
P1/60: 1st
GF/60: 1st
Pen Drawn/60: 1st

The underlying stats aren't there yet, but it's encouraging that he's been able to step right in and produce at this level.

That being said, it will be interesting to see how the team treats him when they're actually trying to win hockey games. He's been kept out of the defensive zone at a top-5 rate, and they haven't really used him with talent. One of those things will probably change next season, and it will be interesting to see which. Using him as an offensive specialist between a sheltered bottom-six scoring line and double-shifts with Eichel/O'Reilly is probably optimal, but too advanced for Phil.

 

[sabrebuild]

Obligatory 5 game sample disclaimer.

P/60: 1st
P1/60: 1st
GF/60: 1st
Pen Drawn/60: 1st

The underlying stats aren't there yet, but it's encouraging that he's been able to step right in and produce at this level.

That being said, it will be interesting to see how the team treats him when they're actually trying to win hockey games. He's been kept out of the defensive zone at a top-5 rate, and they haven't really used him with talent. One of those things will probably change next season, and it will be interesting to see which. Using him as an offensive specialist between a sheltered bottom-six scoring line and double-shifts with Eichel/O'Reilly is probably optimal, but too advanced for Phil.

He looks like he could really thrive on a Roy/vanek attack line.

His timing is impressively on point for his age. I’m torn right now between starting him next year for 15-20 games in the ahl and then letting him jump back to the league with a lot of confidence, or starting at 3C if they can spread enough talent thru the top 9.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Adding him and another mystery top 6/9 scorer would really help. Then uh fix the defense (ristolainen, scandella, Guhle are alright), fix the bottom six, and fix the goaltending.... PLAYOFFS BABY

 

[1TuchAnd1NoTuch]

He is a lock for our opening day lineup at this point

 

[sabrebuild]

He is a lock for our opening day lineup at this point

I think that heavily depends on how Botts wants this lineup to be structured. Something that wasn’t really fledged out this season.

If Botts wants to get a strong 3C in free agency to build a shutdown third line to leverage ror and Eichel lines, then I could see Casey getting sometime to dominate with a talented ahl group.

If they want to run and gun and expect ror to handle the tough matchups, he stays up assuming they can give him two quality wingers in free agency or development guys like baptiste, fasching and Bailey, I know same old song.

 

[joshjull]

That being said, it will be interesting to see how the team treats him when they're actually trying to win hockey games. He's been kept out of the defensive zone at a top-5 rate, and they haven't really used him with talent. One of those things will probably change next season, and it will be interesting to see which. Using him as an offensive specialist between a sheltered bottom-six scoring line and double-shifts with Eichel/O'Reilly is probably optimal, but too advanced for Phil.

Too advanced for Phil? Or thats not something thats really done?

What team comes into a game with the intention of double shifting their 3rd line center on the top 2 lines as an offensive tactic? I'm not talking situational adjustments like trying to get back into a game or shaking things up after a crappy start or stretch of play. I'm talking right from the start of the game they are giving extra shifts to their 3rd line center and using them as their "offensive specialist".

Nevermind that using a player in that manner would be putting an enormous amount of pressure on them to produce offense. Not exactly the smartest use of your 19/20 year old rookie center.

The optimal use of Casey would be in an offensively focused bottom 6 center role (the #2 offensive center Roy/Connolly role during the co- caps era) and getting PP ice time. If you want him to play more then give his line more ice time when they are playing well.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

On the bright side of things: The better the roster gets, the greater the chance for Phil to accidentally stumble into better player usage.

I say that half jokingly...some pretty mediocre coaches have been made to look competent and even great because of their well-balanced rosters (looking at you Ruff and Bylsma).

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Too advanced for Phil? Or thats not something thats really done?

What team comes into a game with the intention of double shifting their 3rd line center on the top 2 lines as an offensive tactic? I'm not talking situational adjustments like trying to get back into a game or shaking things up after a crappy start or stretch of play. I'm talking right from the start of the game they are giving extra shifts to their 3rd line center and using them as their "offensive specialist".

Nevermind that using a player in that manner would be putting an enormous amount of pressure on them to produce offense. Not exactly the smartest use of your 19/20 year old rookie center.

The optimal use of Casey would be in an offensively focused bottom 6 center role (the #2 offensive center Roy/Connolly role during the co- caps era) and getting PP ice time. If you want him to play more then give his line more ice time when they are playing well.

I think you guys are saying the same thing, more of less.

 

[joshjull]

I think that heavily depends on how Botts wants this lineup to be structured. Something that wasn’t really fledged out this season.

If Botts wants to get a strong 3C in free agency to build a shutdown third line to leverage ror and Eichel lines, then I could see Casey getting sometime to dominate with a talented ahl group.

If they want to run and gun and expect ror to handle the tough matchups, he stays up assuming they can give him two quality wingers in free agency or development guys like baptiste, fasching and Bailey, I know same old song.

I imagine the set up will be the same as the one they came into the season with and try to stick to when healthy enough up front to do so

Eichel ---> 70% or so Ozone starts
ROR ----> 50-60% or so
Sam now Casey -> 65-70%
Josefson/Larsson --> 30%

Those are breakdowns for how each line is used. ROR obviously got more shifts taking Dzone draws which skew his Ozone start numbers downward.

 

[joshjull]

I think you guys are saying the same thing, more of less.

I'm pretty sure he is saying use him like Roy/Connolly AND double shift him with Jack/ROR with the totality of that making him an offensive specialist. I was with him up until the AND. If I'm wrong I'm sure he will correct me.

 

[sabrebuild]

I imagine the set up will be the same as the one they came into the season with and try to stick to when healthy enough up front to do so

Eichel ---> 70% or so Ozone starts
ROR ----> 50-60% or so
Sam now Casey -> 65-70%
Josefson/Larsson --> 30%

Those are breakdowns for how each line is used. ROR obviously got more shifts taking Dzone draws which skew his Ozone start numbers downward.

To be honest you are more gutsy than I to try and predict phil’s usage plans for next year after this fiasco.

 

[old kummelweck]

I'm pretty sure I've seen Mittelstadt score from that same spot for both the Gophers and team USA.

This is what secondary scoring looks like. Consistent point production from both a 3rd line and a second PP unit. He doesn't even have his NHL chops yet- I can't wait until he takes games over.

Now they need to find two wingers for Jack.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

I'm pretty sure I've seen Mittelstadt score from that same spot for both the Gophers and team USA.

This is what secondary scoring looks like. Consistent point production from both a 3rd line and a second PP unit. He doesn't even have his NHL chops yet- I can't wait until he takes games over.

Now they need to find two wingers for Jack.

Olofsson is one. I think Girgs is fine on his left just to go and chase pucks... Hopefully Casey+Nylander becomes a thing and ROR and Reinhart get along just fine. That's the basis for 3 scoring lines already...

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Too advanced for Phil? Or thats not something thats really done?

What team comes into a game with the intention of double shifting their 3rd line center on the top 2 lines as an offensive tactic? I'm not talking situational adjustments like trying to get back into a game or shaking things up after a crappy start or stretch of play. I'm talking right from the start of the game they are giving extra shifts to their 3rd line center and using them as their "offensive specialist".

Nevermind that using a player in that manner would be putting an enormous amount of pressure on them to produce offense. Not exactly the smartest use of your 19/20 year old rookie center.

The optimal use of Casey would be in an offensively focused bottom 6 center role (the #2 offensive center Roy/Connolly role during the co- caps era) and getting PP ice time. If you want him to play more then give his line more ice time when they are playing well.

At the moment, it's hard to project Mittelstadt as a pure 3C because he hasn't been trusted in the defensive zone yet, and his wingers won't be particularly great barring a busy offseason. The opportunity cost of not having Eichel or O'Reilly out for the easiest minutes remains pretty significant, and Casey has a pretty large scoring burden in your setup if he's forcing the top six into more difficult matchups.

 

[Chainshot]

He can generate offense, certainly. The defense will need to come as it should for any 19-year old.

 

[1972]

At least we don’t need to hear about his college PPG anymore...

He still looks like he needs to drop 10-15 pounds and put on some muscle. He looks like Drew Doughty did at that age.

Could be a special player.

 

[Chainshot]

At least we don’t need to hear about his college PPG anymore...

He still looks like he needs to drop 10-15 pounds and put on some muscle. He looks like Drew Doughty did at that age.

Could be a special player.

He needs to shed more baby fat and get his upper body in better shape. Glad he's been able to translate the scoring skills early. Hope he can carry it over and we don't have the same situation they've had with so many other kids who've gotten the late look.

 

[sabrebuild]

He needs to shed more baby fat and get his upper body in better shape. Glad he's been able to translate the scoring skills early. Hope he can carry it over and we don't have the same situation they've had with so many other kids who've gotten the late look.

Pull-ups perhaps????

Tho I liked the nature of his points and the ability to repeat them. His shot choice and location have been good. In the easiest terms, he just gets it. The skills are their and the brain works good and fast, particularly with the puck on his stick.

I still want them to pay a real 3C in free agency and put Casey with Eichel or RoR.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

He needs to shed more baby fat and get his upper body in better shape. Glad he's been able to translate the scoring skills early. Hope he can carry it over and we don't have the same situation they've had with so many other kids who've gotten the late look.

Not worried about him, too much skill and as importantly too much compete, he has high expectations/confidence in himself. He's pretty special.

 

[Chainshot]

Not worried about him, too much skill and as importantly too much compete, he has high expectations/confidence in himself. He's pretty special.

Possibly. Hope he does.

 

[joshjull]

At the moment, it's hard to project Mittelstadt as a pure 3C because he hasn't been trusted in the defensive zone yet, and his wingers won't be particularly great barring a busy offseason. The opportunity cost of not having Eichel or O'Reilly out for the easiest minutes remains pretty significant, and Casey has a pretty large scoring burden in your setup if he's forcing the top six into more difficult matchups.

The bolded is simply not true. Jack and ROR will never play the easiest minutes by virtue of who they are (the top two centers). You can try to make their minutes easier but they will never be the easiest. Also their roles will not change nor will they being forced into more difficult matchups with Casey centering the 3rd line. Jack will still be the top offensive center and ROR's line will be used in a two way role with ROR himself getting extra shifts taking FOs. That will be the case whether Casey centers the 3rd line of plays on one of their lines. You want to get a center that can change their burdens, get a face-off specialist to cut down on the amount of times ROR goes out extra to take draws.

 

[joshjull]

He can generate offense, certainly. The defense will need to come as it should for any 19-year old.

Its not all Casey obviously but what a difference in the last 6 games since he arrived (among others).

2 - 5v5 goals per game (1.45 for the season)
3.67- total goals per game (2.41 for the season)

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

The bolded is simply not true. Jack and ROR will never play the easiest minutes by virtue of who they are (the top two centers). You can try to make their minutes easier but they will never be the easiest. Also their roles will not change nor will they being forced into more difficult matchups with Casey centering the 3rd line. Jack will still be the top offensive center and ROR's line will be used in a two way role with ROR himself getting extra shifts taking FOs. That will be the case whether Casey centers the 3rd line of plays on one of their lines.

My point is that the last time Phil tried to use a 3 line setup, the bolded wasn't really happening. Eichel was getting favorable zone splits but generally faced top lines & pairings, and O'Reilly wasn't seeing much time in the offensive zone. The top six was also taxed because possible wing options were being used to service the third line.

Given how the team probably won't trust Mittelstadt's defense in a summer, the setup you're outlining features most of the same difficulties as last year.

If you look at how Chicago handled Alex Debrincat this season, you'll see that they were able to give him sheltered minutes, largely away from Toews and Kane, without much impact on top 6 deployments. That's because they limited his icetime in bottom six roles, and played him up the lineup as form dictated. I'd like to see the same tactics with Casey next year. Unfortunately, we probably won't.

You want to get a center that can change their burdens, get a face-off specialist to cut down on the amount of times ROR goes out extra to take draws.

This isn't an either/or situation. You can add some defensive forwards and also create a more nuanced role for Casey than "be the '07 Roy line."