TSN: Carolina interested in Kapanen

[Randy Randerson]

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Toronto Maple Leafs - Los Angeles Kings - November 13th, 2018

PP TOI and SH TOI listed

thanks

so do you really think that Kapanen presents as a no-upside PP option, or just not a "special" PP player?

 

[garyturner3]

Pesce is a suitable centerpiece to be added to in order to acquire Tarasenko or ROR.
Kapanen is not a suitable centerpiece to be added to in order to acquire Pesce. He'd be the add.

This post is a little hypocritical IMO. Tarasenko is a superstar. The difference between him and a 2nd pairing d-man like Pesce is massive. Why is the lesser player a realistic starting point for a trade only when it's your team giving up the lesser player? I would argue the difference between Pesce and Tarasenko is larger than Pesce and Kapanen.

 

[GoldiFox]

People pushing Pesce for Tarasenko, but laughing at Kapanen for Pesce probably shouldn't throw stones...

Check the Tarasenko thread. Blues fans seem quite happy with the Pesce++ offers they are receiving. They must not understand valuations either, I guess?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Only in a discussion about a Leafs player would "Yeah he is only a 40 point winger but if you give him PP time then he is definitely worth your premium asset" be used by fans as a justification to push a lopsided trade.

you don't think PP time would increase his production? how many 40 point 5v5 players do you think there are in the league? Aho had 44 last year. Also maybe you should consider that your 20 point defenseman who gets carried by Slavin isn't quite the premium asset you're painting him as

 

[garyturner3]

The Leafs will not move out any contributing players, end of story. If they add it will be done with prospects and picks only this season. Off-season is another story depending on how much they have to pay up.

I disagree. I have no doubt whatsoever the Leafs would move a contributing forward if it brought them back the RHD they desperately need. I love Kapanen and how much he brings to the lineup in all situations, but you're kidding yourself if you don't think they'd ship him out as part of a package for a greater need.

 

[zeke]

You are just confused about what I am arguing versus what the data shows. I am an engineer, it is in my nature to be unable to completely divorce the data from the conclusion.

apparently not.

Of course it is very unlikely that Kapanen would continue to produce zero points with his PP time.

correct.

But there is no absolutely no data to suggest that Kapanen is proficient on the PP. It can't be a selling point.

Sure there is.

There's of course simply observing that he's a very good offensive player, and that he would likely produce at a solid rate on the PP. That's easy to do, and reasonable.

But we also have (unsurprising) data.

Expected Goals For per 60 minutes on the PP, minimum 5pp minutes:

1.Kapanen 11.79
2.Marner 11.57
3.Tavares 11.24
4.Kadri 11.12
5.Matthews 10.76
6.Marleau 9.44
7.Johnsson 9.09
8.Ennis 8.76
9.Hyman 8.69
10.Nylander 7.00
12.Brown 5.53

Does this mean Kapanen is elite on the PP? could be, but no need to assume that. Just be reasonable and assume that he would be a decent PP producer based on the fact that he is a good skilled offensive player.

Imagine a scenario where the Canes told Calgary "Lindholm has only ever scored 45 points but he is probably a ppg+ player next to Gaudreau so you should really pay us as if he was actually a ppg forward". They would be laughed at AND it also happened to be true in the end. You can be right here and your argument can still be bad.

Actually, any GM that ignored the role of PP production in a player's offense would be doomed to failure.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Nope, right on the same subject.

You dismissed his total points based on his shooting percentage.

You are one confused poster. You said what if we factor in Kapanen getting hypothetical PP mins. I posted why use hypothetical PP mins when we have real ones. 19:57 PP TOI mins this year. With zero actual points.

The only other thing I said about Kapanen is he is not likely to maintain his 19% shooting % from last week, when some were already calling him a 31 goal scorer on a hypothetical projection over 82 games at the 30 game mark.

Well 2 games into this, his shooting % has gone down to a still lofty 17.6% and he is now on pace for 28.9 goals this year. Not 31. This only took 2 games.

Pretty easy to understand for most.

 

[zeke]

This post is a little hypocritical IMO. Tarasenko is a superstar. The difference between him and a 2nd pairing d-man like Pesce is massive. Why is the lesser player a realistic starting point for a trade only when it's your team giving up the lesser player? I would argue the difference between Pesce and Tarasenko is larger than Pesce and Kapanen.

hey try comparing Kappy and Tarasenko at the same ages. you might be surprised.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

hey try comparing Kappy and Tarasenko at the same ages. you might be surprised.

hell, try comparing them now

 

[BB88]

I think especially given his youth, 2nd line is fair. He has shown he is more than a bottom-6 guy at this point. Could that all cave-in? Sure, but that could be the case with almost any young player. In his first opportunity in a top-6 role, he is proving he belongs there.

I have yet to see a serious trade proposal for Kapanen have a "build around him" guy coming back. From what I have seen from the Leafs boards, it has mainly been looking at trying to get a 2nd pairing defender back, which while valuble, also certainly isn't a franchise cornerstone type guy. No one thinks Kapenen would have gotten say, Hanifin if he were still a Cane (personally I still think Carolina undersold on him; I love his game), that would be absurd.

These days it doesn't seem to matter the D-man involved, Kaps is the player offered from Toronto.
Atleast on the main boards.

You don't trade high end D-man signed longterm for your basic 2nd line guys.

Well this is pretty obvious, but here's the thing....the canes wouldn't be targeting him as that. They are building around guys like Slavin/Aho. That's why the talk is around Pesce (and i get why Carolina doesn't do that)...but Pesce is 3rd or fourth on your D depth chart depending on how you view Faulk.

Canes need a high end forward to get their offense to the next level.

They'll build around Aho but their 3rd best forward needs to be better than Kapanen.

 

[zeke]

You are one confused poster.

clearly.

You said what if we factor in Kapanen getting hypothetical PP mins. I posted why use hypothetical PP mins when we have real ones. 19:57 PP TOI mins this year. With zero actual points.

correct.

Yet, you used hypothetical shooting percentage without any reservations.

The only other thing I said about Kapanen is he is not likely to maintain his 19% shooting % from last week, when some were already calling him a 31 goal scorer on a hypothetical projection over 82 games at the 30 game mark.

Well 2 games into this, his shooting % has gone down to a still lofty 17.6% and he is now on pace for 28.9 goals this year. Not 31. This only took 2 games.

Pretty easy to understand for most.

It is easy to understand. So easy, in fact, that everyone agrees with it. Everybody knows his shooting percentage is unlikely to stay at 17.6%, and that he would lose a few goals and points with a more normal shooting percentage. Everyone agrees.

Also just as easy to understand is that pretending that Kappy wouldn't score more points with regular PP time is obviously childish.

 

[GoldiFox]

you don't think PP time would increase his production? how many 40 point 5v5 players do you think there are in the league? Aho had 44 last year. Also maybe you should consider that your 20 point defenseman who gets carried by Slavin isn't quite the premium asset you're painting him as

Not all 5v5. Only 4 points 5v5 as far as I can tell. 2 of the points were 4v4 and 1 was short handed.

4 5v5 points in 14 games = 23 point pace for 5v5 over a season. Which places him at about #200 last year.

 

[NoName]

There are about 20 pages of "With vs without Matthews" calculations. As the Canes have no Matthews, it is safe to project Kapanen's numbers with the Canes as being more similar to his numbers while Matthews was injured. 7 points in 14 games during that stretch (41 point pace).

No, it really isn't. Comparing a 10 point spread with a sample size of 14 games is rather nonsensical. Case-in-point, if he just gets one extra bounce in there he gets an 8th point and suddenly that is a 47 point pace and changes that narrative.
What we do know is this: he is a 22 year old winger on non-arbitration RFA contract that is up this summer who will likely get 50 points (which by definition would make him a "50 point player"). That is a fairly valuable asset, and it isn't going to be shipped out for a minimal return. Pesce is not a premium asset. His contract is good and being a 2nd pairing caliber RHD is valuble, but you are being incredibly loose on the definition of "premium". If you want a "premium asset" on the blue-line you are looking at both contract value and talent, like a Noah Hanafin at $4.95 million until 2024 or a Morgan Rielly at $6 million until 2022 (and this is without including the super-studs on the blue-line like Seth Jones). Pesce with his production and contract is definitely a good value, but it is hard to market him as "premium" in any sense of the word.

Funnily enough, I have a feeling that if the Jackets sell Panarin at the deadline to a playoff team desperate for scoring, I think they can get a massive haul in return; just look at what the shell of Rick Nash got.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Canes need a high end forward to get their offense to the next level.

They'll build around Aho but their 3rd best forward needs to be better than Kapanen.

Aren't the Canes expecting Svechnikov and Necas to be in the team's top 4 forwards? Svechnikov is a face of the franchise type prospect

 

[ESH]

No, it really isn't. Comparing a 10 point spread with a sample size of 14 games is rather nonsensical. Case-in-point, if he just gets one extra bounce in there he gets an 8th point and suddenly that is a 47 point pace and changes that narrative.
What we do know is this: he is a 22 year old winger on non-arbitration RFA contract that is up this summer who will likely get 50 points (which by definition would make him a "50 point player"). That is a fairly valuable asset, and it isn't going to be shipped out for a minimal return. Pesce is not a premium asset. His contract is good and being a 2nd pairing caliber RHD is valuble, but you are being incredibly loose on the definition of "premium". If you want a "premium asset" on the blue-line you are looking at both contract value and talent, like a Noah Hanafin at $4.95 million until 2024 or a Morgan Rielly at $6 million until 2022 (and this is without including the super-studs on the blue-line like Seth Jones). Pesce with his production and contract is definitely a good value, but it is hard to market him as "premium" in any sense of the word.

Funnily enough, I have a feeling that if the Jackets sell Panarin at the deadline to a playoff team desperate for scoring, I think they can get a massive haul in return; just look at what the shell of Rick Nash got.

Kapanen isn't worth a "premium" asset though.

 

[GoldiFox]

No, it really isn't. Comparing a 10 point spread with a sample size of 14 games is rather nonsensical. Case-in-point, if he just gets one extra bounce in there he gets an 8th point and suddenly that is a 47 point pace and changes that narrative.
What we do know is this: he is a 22 year old winger on non-arbitration RFA contract that is up this summer who will likely get 50 points (which by definition would make him a "50 point player"). That is a fairly valuable asset, and it isn't going to be shipped out for a minimal return. Pesce is not a premium asset. His contract is good and being a 2nd pairing caliber RHD is valuble, but you are being incredibly loose on the definition of "premium". If you want a "premium asset" on the blue-line you are looking at both contract value and talent, like a Noah Hanafin at $4.95 million until 2024 or a Morgan Rielly at $6 million until 2022 (and this is without including the super-studs on the blue-line like Seth Jones). Pesce with his production and contract is definitely a good value, but it is hard to market him as "premium" in any sense of the word.

Funnily enough, I have a feeling that if the Jackets sell Panarin at the deadline to a playoff team desperate for scoring, I think they can get a massive haul in return; just look at what the shell of Rick Nash got.

For you:
Noah Hanifin is a premium asset at $4.95 million x 6 years
Brett Pesce isn't a premium asset at $4 million x 6 years

Brett Pesce is a significantly better asset than Noah Hanifin. He is a better player on a cheaper deal right now. Are you forgetting that Canes fans actually watched both of these guys for years?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Not all 5v5. Only 4 points 5v5 as far as I can tell. 2 of the points were 4v4 and 1 was short handed.

4 5v5 points in 14 games = 23 point pace for 5v5 over a season. Which places him at about #200 last year.

if you think that's a reasonable sample then sure. It's not though

 

[garyturner3]

hey try comparing Kappy and Tarasenko at the same ages. you might be surprised.

Already have. I'm constantly going back and comparing players at younger ages because fans on here always seem to have so much trouble giving credit to a young player until they've not just proven it, but proven it for 3 straight years. Which I don't understand because as a young player you don't have the luxury of a proven track record at the NHL level. I put a lot more stock into a young player's pedigree and how they're performing TODAY. You can be sure most people thought Tarasenko wouldn't turn out to the player he is today when he was 21 and the same with a guy like Slavin. Most young players follow the trend of making huge strides between their 21-24 years and I usually bank on that because the chances of that happening are much higher than Kapanen hitting a development wall and topping out as a 40 point player.

Having said all that, I don't expect Kapanen to ever become close to the star that Tarasenko is. That guy has looked unstoppable since the 2014 season and I don't see that level of talent in Kapanen at all. Still a very valuable asset nonetheless.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

This post is a little hypocritical IMO. Tarasenko is a superstar. The difference between him and a 2nd pairing d-man like Pesce is massive. Why is the lesser player a realistic starting point for a trade only when it's your team giving up the lesser player? I would argue the difference between Pesce and Tarasenko is larger than Pesce and Kapanen.

There is actually a pretty obvious answer. The Blues may have the internal motivation to move Tarasenko beyond the quality of the return (shaking up the room, impending NTC). Carolina should have no internal motivation to move Pesce beyond the quality of the return. Maybe the Leafs get lucky and the Canes are so desperate for a forward that they settle for less, but I'll believe this type of trade when I see it.

Effectively, what was said by Leafs fans in those Nylander threads holds here for Canes fans: Pesce shouldn't be the best asset in the deal, if dealt.

 

[NoName]

These days it doesn't seem to matter the D-man involved, Kaps is the player offered from Toronto.
Atleast on the main boards.

You don't trade high end D-man signed longterm for your basic 2nd line guys.

If the Canes don't want to trade at least a 2nd pairing defender then Toronto is best served just holding on to Kapanen at this point, since that is really all they need; they don't need more 3rd pairing caliber guys and Kapanen plays a valuable role on the team. If it isn't worth it for Carolina I can understand that, it just means that a trade just isn't in the cards between these two teams for this particular player.

And Imagine that the Leafs like any other team will be willing to hear offers on any of their players; a GM that simply refuses to entertain offers just on principle is a fool. I am sure a Nylander or even a Marner caliber player could be traded, it is just the return would have to be huge. More than Pesce at least.

 

[NoName]

Kapanen isn't worth a "premium" asset though.

That is true. Hence no "premium" asset is being asked in the proposals I have seen.

As of yet, I think Big Daddy Cane has come up with the best proposal I have seen in a while and it was built around a deal for Faulk.

There is actually a pretty obvious answer. The Blues may have the internal motivation to move Tarasenko beyond the quality of the return (shaking up the room, impending NTC). Carolina should have no internal motivation to move Pesce beyond the quality of the return. Maybe the Leafs get lucky and the Canes are so desperate for a forward that they settle for less, but I'll believe this type of trade when I see it.

Effectively, what was said by Leafs fans in those Nylander threads holds here for Canes fans: Pesce shouldn't be the best asset in the deal, if dealt.

That is a fair point. The issue is that in most of these trades, the best player in the team is usually going from the team in a poor position in need of a shakeup, and that isn't Toronto in this situation. At this point, Carolina might have some internal pressure for a shake-up: the team is underperforming but the Metro division is also tantalizingly weak so far (the Isles are 3rd in the Metro having played 1 more game and having 5 more points then Carolina).
From the Leafs perspective it seems like the best move is that unless you get an offer that addresses the very clear need of the team (another top-4 defender) you are probably best served by sitting pat with Kapanen until the offseason.

I don't think many HF board fans like to propose trades where the best player in the deal is leaving their team, unless it is for a rebuild and the assets coming back are futures. Fortunately we are all "armchair GMs" rather than real ones.

 

[Battle Lin]

how does a team desperate for offense give away lindholm and skinner...both would look mighty fine on the canes right now

 

[garyturner3]

For you:
Noah Hanifin is a premium asset at $4.95 million x 6 years
Brett Pesce isn't a premium asset at $4 million x 6 years

Brett Pesce is a significantly better asset than Noah Hanifin. He is a better player on a cheaper deal right now. Are you forgetting that Canes fans actually watched both of these guys for years?

That's only true if you're not considering the asset's future. Being a Canes fan, you obviously realize there's a ceiling people are hoping for in Hanifin that is much higher than what Pesce provides. He was drafted 5th overall in a stacked draft for a reason. And if you're comparing the two players this season, I'm not sure you can make the argument for Pesce even today. Last season Pesce was obviously the better player, but Hanifin has taken huge strides this season. He's facing much tougher competition and his advanced stats are great. Plus he's still only 21 so it's only going to get better. I'm guessing if you created a going forward poll on Hanifin vs Pesce, you would not like the results.

 

[bleedgreen]

I've watched Hanifin, he's still making mistakes like he made last year. The team is doing amazing, of course his fancy stats are good. He's also playing with a very good partner. He's incrementally better than he was last year, as most players are as they develop through their early 20's. He hasn't taken "huge strides".

An hf poll? seriously? What does that prove outside of shiny new toy biases?

 

[garyturner3]

There is actually a pretty obvious answer. The Blues may have the internal motivation to move Tarasenko beyond the quality of the return (shaking up the room, impending NTC). Carolina should have no internal motivation to move Pesce beyond the quality of the return. Maybe the Leafs get lucky and the Canes are so desperate for a forward that they settle for less, but I'll believe this type of trade when I see it.

Effectively, what was said by Leafs fans in those Nylander threads holds here for Canes fans: Pesce shouldn't be the best asset in the deal, if dealt.

I'm not sure if the bolded is completely true. They're not exactly sitting in a good spot in the standings right now. They're dead last in the conference in goals scored and need forwards who can score. With the amount of depth on D they have of course there's motivation to trade a player like Pesce for a forward who can help their offensive struggles. We can debate about whether Kappy is the right starting point or not, but I'm just saying the motivation should definitely be there from management to make a move. I don't think this season is lost for them yet.