TSN: Carolina interested in Kapanen

[zeke]

Your argument is that Kapanen would produce more points with PP time. Babcock has played Kapanen for ~20 minutes of PP time this year. He scored zero points.

What fudge factor should we add to the data to show Kapanen's true PP scoring capabilities? How many points should he have scored in those 20 minutes to give us the real picture?

There are many reasonable ways to do this. You could just assume average PP production for him if you'd like. Or above average PP production. Or below average production

Or, to be more granular, you could reasonably estimate that he would eventually have better than a 0.0 shooting percentage and a 0.0 on-ice shooting percentage on the PP going forward. Maybe a lot better.

Or, instead, you could claim this talented young player would continue to put up 0 points on the PP no matter what.

It's up to you.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Your argument is that Kapanen would produce more points with PP time. Babcock has played Kapanen for ~20 minutes of PP time this year. He scored zero points.

What fudge factor should we add to the data to show Kapanen's true PP scoring capabilities? How many points should he have scored in those 20 minutes to give us the real picture?

I think you'll find that PP time is made up mostly of the last 20 seconds of PP's when the puck is iced to the Toronto end and there isn't enough time for the second unit to get re-established in the forward zone so Babcock roles his next 5v5 line. What's a normal PP production rate, about 4/60? So he's missing about 1.33pts from being very normal there, 2 points in the next month of the same usage puts him ahead of the curve, even without the consideration of what that time actually has been for Kapanen, this is still a bit of a small sample aberration

shouldn't be a stretch to project Kapanen as being more productive with PP time given that he has a very good release & finishes well in tight for a 2 or 4 PP spot, has decent vision and the wheels/hands to occupy a 1 or 3 PP spot, should it?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

your entire argument is a what if - "what if his shooting percentage slips?"

and it is a reasonable what if. you are correct in projecting a slip in shooting percentage. he is at 17.6% shooting percentage this year - at his career 13.5sh%, he'd have 3 less goals and points, and be at a 22gl/46pt pace. This is a very reasonable what if, and no leaf fans disagree with it.

but there is another reasonable what if - "what if he got regular PP time?"

there is a reasonable projection for this what if too, but you refuse to deal with it.

The stats say Kapanen has 0 PP points in 19.57 PP minutes this year. This is not a what if stat.

 

[GoldiFox]

There are many reasonable ways to do this. You could just assume average PP production for him if you'd like. Or above average PP production. Or below average production

Or, to be more granular, you could reasonably estimate that he would eventually have better than a 0.0 shooting percentage and a 0.0 on-ice shooting percentage on the PP going forward. Maybe a lot better.

Or, instead, you could claim this talented young player would continue to put up 0 points on the PP no matter what.

It's up to you.

You are the one making an argument that Kapanen is the PP wizard. I'm just pointing out the only data available which states that Kapanen has never produced on the PP.

You can make an argument of "Well Kapanen would probably produce similar to what Andreas Johnsson (52 PP minutes), Tyler Ennis (54 PP minutes), or Josh Leivo (61 PP minutes) produce". I don't entirely disagree. I just think it is a bit funny that this is the line you want to take given that the PP players currently better than him (or at least getting much more PP time) according to Babcock are Andreas Johnsson, Tyler Ennis, and Josh Leivo.

 

[The3rd]

The Leafs will not move out any contributing players, end of story. If they add it will be done with prospects and picks only this season. Off-season is another story depending on how much they have to pay up.

 

[GoldiFox]

I think you'll find that PP time is made up mostly of the last 20 seconds of PP's when the puck is iced to the Toronto end and there isn't enough time for the second unit to get re-established in the forward zone so Babcock roles his next 5v5 line...

This actually isn't true at all. Babcock tried Kapanen on the PP extensively in November (11/13-11/26) and removed him after a complete lack of production.

11/13 vs Kings: 5:21 PP time
11/15 vs. Sharks: 3:00 PP time
11/16 vs. Ducks: 2:12 PP time
11/19 vs. Columbus: Leafs had no PP
11/21 vs. Carolina: 0:57 PP time
11/23 vs. Columbus: 2:09 PP time
11/24 vs. Flyers: Leafs had no PP
11/26 vs. Boston: 1:22 PP Time

So 15-16 of Kapanen's total ~20 PP minutes came during this 8 game stretch with extended shifts and he produced nothing.

 

[glucker]

My god, only in a discussion about a Leaf player is “PP time will increase his production” a controversial topic.

Love the “neutral fans” chiming in.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

Car is supposedly interested in Kap so
Kap+Lilj+2nd for Hamilton

 

[Randy Randerson]

This actually isn't true at all. Babcock tried Kapanen on the PP extensively in November (11/13-11/26) and removed him after a complete lack of production.

11/13 vs Kings: 5:21 PP time
11/15 vs. Sharks: 3:00 PP time
11/16 vs. Ducks: 2:12 PP time
11/19 vs. Columbus: Leafs had no PP
11/21 vs. Carolina: 0:57 PP time
11/23 vs. Columbus: 2:09 PP time
11/24 vs. Flyers: Leafs had no PP
11/26 vs. Boston: 1:22 PP Time

So 15-16 of Kapanen's total ~20 PP minutes came during this 8 game stretch with extended shifts and he produced nothing.

where are you getting the icetime logs, couldn't find them for PP time

the Nov 13 addition and Nov 26 removal from the PP probably has more do to with Matthews getting hurt and then returning than Kapanen, outside of Matthews' absence he doesn't get normal PP time - just the early shift end parts.

and again, 20 mins in PP time without a point is not out of the ordinary for any player who gets regular PP time, it just blends in to a larger sample. I'm also not saying that he's going to be some kind of a special PP player, but do you really think it's a reasonable assertion that he would would produce at well below average rates, or nothing at all, with regular PP time and regular PP linemates?

 

[zeke]

The stats say Kapanen has 0 PP points in 19.57 PP minutes this year. This is not a what if stat.

The stats say he has 12gls and 22pts. Also not a what if stat.

 

[zeke]

You are the one making an argument that Kapanen is the PP wizard. I'm just pointing out the only data available which states that Kapanen has never produced on the PP.

I am the one arguing that it is reasonable to assume that Kappy would score some points on the PP with regular PP time.

You are the one arguing that it is reasonable to assume Kappy will never score points on the PP.

Again, it's up to you whether you want to have a reasonable discussion, or just troll.

 

[BB88]

22 points in 34 games means he needs 28 in 48 to hit 50. While not impossible to happen, he could slack off his current pace substantially and still hit that number. Could he go on a massive cold-streak the rest of the season? Sure, as it could happen for any player, but it isn;'t fair to calculate his value based off the assumption that his scoring will massively dry up, at least not without other data suggesting it will do so.
Again, I don't think anyone is saying he fetches a top-pair dman on a decent contract; those guys are gold, but if you are Toronto the only thing you really need right now is a guy who can play top-4 (2nd pairing caliber would be fine too, which is why Pesce is so talked about). They aren't just going to ship out Kapanen, who plays a useful role on the team, in return for a player back they don't need, which is why if the rumors are true about Carolina enquiring about him then the asking price in return is going to be a top-4 defender, otherwise Toronto just has no reason to move him... which indeed could be the case since these rumors are more often then not just smoke.

So again, some fans are raising his value through the roof based on 34 games.
Gm's who move Ellis/Parayko for x player based on sample sizes like that are looking to get fired.

Toronto shouldn't trade Kapanen just for fun, I haven't said that.
But they shouldn't either expect teams to go crazy over him based on 34 games on one of the best offenses in the league.

Kaps would be a good 2nd to 3rd line addition to a team competing, but he's not a guy you build around.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Is anyone else amazed that this thread has reached 41 pages?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

The stats say he has 12gls and 22pts. Also not a what if stat.

Changing the subject? You cited what if PP mins for Kapanen, I gave you actual PP mins. 0 pts in 19:57 PP TOI. Not exactly backing up your switching hypothetical what ifs right here.

 

[GoldiFox]

My god, only in a discussion about a Leaf player is “PP time will increase his production” a controversial topic.

Love the “neutral fans” chiming in.

Only in a discussion about a Leafs player would "Yeah he is only a 40 point winger but if you give him PP time then he is definitely worth your premium asset" be used by fans as a justification to push a lopsided trade.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

Is anyone else amazed that this thread has reached 41 pages?

toronto is involved, so... nah

 

[GoldiFox]

where are you getting the icetime logs, couldn't find them for PP time

the Nov 13 addition and Nov 26 removal from the PP probably has more do to with Matthews getting hurt and then returning than Kapanen, outside of Matthews' absence he doesn't get normal PP time - just the early shift end parts.

and again, 20 mins in PP time without a point is not out of the ordinary for any player who gets regular PP time, it just blends in to a larger sample. I'm also not saying that he's going to be some kind of a special PP player, but do you really think it's a reasonable assertion that he would would produce at well below average rates, or nothing at all, with regular PP time and regular PP linemates?

Toronto Maple Leafs Schedule
--> click box score on schedule
--> click Team Stats tab
Toronto Maple Leafs - Los Angeles Kings - November 13th, 2018

PP TOI and SH TOI listed

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Is anyone else amazed that this thread has reached 41 pages?

If anything I’m amazed it took this long.

 

[Liferleafer]

So again, some fans are raising his value through the roof based on 34 games.

Toronto shouldn't trade Kapanen just for fun, but they shouldn't either expect teams to go crazy over him based on 34 games on one of the best offenses in the league.

Kaps would be a good 2nd to 3rd line addition to a team competing, but he's not a guy you build around.

Well this is pretty obvious, but here's the thing....the canes wouldn't be targeting him as that. They are building around guys like Slavin/Aho. That's why the talk is around Pesce (and i get why Carolina doesn't do that)...but Pesce is 3rd or fourth on your D depth chart depending on how you view Faulk.

 

[NoName]

Kaps would be a good 2nd to 3rd line addition to a team competing, but he's not a guy you build around.

I think especially given his youth, 2nd line is fair. He has shown he is more than a bottom-6 guy at this point. Could that all cave-in? Sure, but that could be the case with almost any young player. In his first opportunity in a top-6 role, he is proving he belongs there.

I have yet to see a serious trade proposal for Kapanen have a "build around him" guy coming back. From what I have seen from the Leafs boards, it has mainly been looking at trying to get a 2nd pairing defender back, which while valuble, also certainly isn't a franchise cornerstone type guy. No one thinks Kapenen would have gotten say, Hanifin if he were still a Cane (personally I still think Carolina undersold on him; I love his game), that would be absurd.

 

[GoldiFox]

I am the one arguing that it is reasonable to assume that Kappy would score some points on the PP with regular PP time.

You are the one arguing that it is reasonable to assume Kappy will never score points on the PP.

Again, it's up to you whether you want to have a reasonable discussion, or just troll.

You are just confused about what I am arguing versus what the data shows. I am an engineer, it is in my nature to be unable to completely divorce the data from the conclusion.

Of course it is very unlikely that Kapanen would continue to produce zero points with his PP time. But there is no absolutely no data to suggest that Kapanen is proficient on the PP. It can't be a selling point.

Imagine a scenario where the Canes told Calgary "Lindholm has only ever scored 45 points but he is probably a ppg+ player next to Gaudreau so you should really pay us as if he was actually a ppg forward". They would be laughed at AND it also happened to be true in the end. You can be right here and your argument can still be bad.

 

[NoName]

Only in a discussion about a Leafs player would "Yeah he is only a 40 point winger but if you give him PP time then he is definitely worth your premium asset" be used by fans as a justification to push a lopsided trade.

Right now he is on pace for 53 points this season. 40 points would represent a very large cold-streak, If say he puts up 50 points (say he cools a tad) and it is pretty much all on 5v5 or on the PK, is that not solid production? I imagine getting power-play time would boost those numbers; increased powerplay time boosts any players numbers. Of course, there is only so much PP time to go around, and it is fair to say, Kapanen is way down the pecking order for who on Toronto should have those extra prime scoring touches (Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Kadri are all forwards who are unambiguously superior point scorers and Marleau has his track record of excellence to lean on). It does make me wonder if maybe he could excel more on a team with less depth up front like Carolina where he could see more premium ice-time.

And what "premium asset" is being floated here? It seems the ask is for a 2nd pairing defender from Carolina like Pesce or maybe a guy like Faulk due to his contract situation (this suggestion came from a Canes fan and it seemed interesting), no one in their right mind is suggesting Carolina send out their stud stars like Aho or a top-shelf young talent like Svechnikov.

 

[zeke]

Changing the subject? You cited what if PP mins for Kapanen, I gave you actual PP mins. 0 pts in 19:57 PP TOI. Not exactly backing up your switching hypothetical what ifs right here.

Nope, right on the same subject.

You dismissed his total points based on his shooting percentage.

 

[GoldiFox]

Right now he is on pace for 53 points this season. 40 points would represent a very large cold-streak, If say he puts up 50 points (say he cools a tad) and it is pretty much all on 5v5 or on the PK, is that not solid production? I imagine getting power-play time would boost those numbers; increased powerplay time boosts any players numbers. Of course, there is only so much PP time to go around, and it is fair to say, Kapanen is way down the pecking order for who on Toronto should have those extra prime scoring touches.

And what "premium asset" is being floated here? It seems the ask is for a 2nd pairing defender from Carolina like Pesce or maybe a guy like Faulk due to his contract situation (this suggestion came from a Canes fan and it seemed interesting), no one in their right mind is suggesting Carolina send out their stud stars like Aho or a top-shelf young talent like Svechnikov.

There are about 20 pages of "With vs without Matthews" calculations. As the Canes have no Matthews, it is safe to project Kapanen's numbers with the Canes as being more similar to his numbers while Matthews was injured. 7 points in 14 games during that stretch (41 point pace).

You are confusing premium player and premium asset. $4 million x 6 years for a rock solid 24 year old, 6'3" top-4 RHD who can play on the top pair is a premium asset whilst not being a premium player. Conversely a player like Panarin who has said he will not re-sign with anyone might be considered a premium player but not necessarily a premium asset.

It isn't too confusing, I'm willing to bet most Toronto fans understand the presence of the Cap and why getting core pieces signed to cheap deals would be valuable.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Only in a discussion about a Leafs player would "Yeah he is only a 40 point winger but if you give him PP time then he is definitely worth your premium asset" be used by fans as a justification to push a lopsided trade.

People pushing Pesce for Tarasenko, but laughing at Kapanen for Pesce probably shouldn't throw stones...