Are you sure?
Ok I'll care also.
Are you sure?
Correlation between corsi and winning is an unproven theory.
Two last cup champs were terrible corsi-teams by choice, not because they had terrible support crew for their superstar-power.
Trotz said it himself last year. Their advanced stats looked terribad because their gameplan was opposite of what the advanced stats were for. Caps chose to take less shots, and had no problem giving in puck control and "low-danger" shots for the opponent.
Hockey is always evolving and Caps and Pens decided to give the corsi and puck control away and concentrate on 'fast' trap/counter strategy. It worked. Now someone needs to outwork that one.
That being said, is it friday yet? Cant wait to see the 'El Corsico'!! It should be a good game between two hot teams.
The correlation is proven. A team with higher regular season CF% has the exact same chance of winning a playoff series as a team with more regular season points. This is a 56.7% winning percentage since 2007-2007. 94 out of 165 playoff series.
Yes, Washington and Pittsburgh just won Stanley Cups with less than elite Corsi. But both of those teams had two elite superstar #1Cs, an elite superstar winger, and at least one elite goaltender; all 9 of whom could have won the Conn Smythe. Most teams don’t have that.
You can win with good corsi stats, and you can lose. When it comes to a best out of 7 series against one specific team, the equation is way more than what your corsi-numbers look like. You do not simply have 56,7% better chance to win if you have better corsi than the team you play against.
56,7% is definately not outclosing number on a 165 series take either. Try flipping a coin 165 times, id take a wild guess you dont get 50/50 heads and tails.
There is really no correct way to test actual correlation of Corsi and winning. As long as a superstar can make the difference between winning or losing against corsi-champions, you can only speculate. Too much of variable parts and underlying stats and even puck luck going on in the process.
Each team builds their own way of winning. The fact is Pens and Caps have won 15/15 series last 3 years where they didnt play each other, and they have found different ways to do so. They have destroyed all kinds of corsi numbers doing so. Should that prove that there is actually correlation between corsi and losing? No.
A good and talented team that comes together as a group does not need good corsi numbers to have advantage. Thats just hockey, too many variable parts.
Every team has superstars. Its NHL. But If corsi + superstars is the ultimate equation for winning, Tampa should win 5/10 cups (and slightly over) by your proven numbers.
94 out of 165 says a hell of a lot. Also, Pittsburgh in 2016 was the 2nd best Corsi team and they had the best xGF, and they were by far the best Corsi team after they hired Sullivan. A team that has good Corsi is a team that controls a high percentage of shot attempts, and that gives them a much better chance at winning if all else is equal. That really isn't hard to understand.
Tampa Bay was 7th with a 51.63% Corsi last year and their superstars disappeared in game 7. Corsi+Superstars playing well is more like the Kings and Blackhawks between 2010 and 2015 when they won 5 out of 6 Stanley Cups.
94/165 says more to you than for me and thats fine. That just has a lot of room for errors in my view. And sure, if all else is equal maybe you actually do win 56,7% of the games if you have better corsi, but as hockey is not executed on a vacuum space there will be highly limited amount of those situations and therefore its quite irrelevant.
The whole problem that im having with Corsi is the concept of "shot attempts" and seeing them as higher chance of winning. Not every shot attempt, or shot, is equal and does not give the equal chance to score a goal. Ill trade one hard snipe from high danger area to 10 sloppy shots from the corner of blueline everytime and I think I have better chance at winning the game. And thats also what Trotz pointed out when asked last year.
A Bettman gambit!This entire thread is just an evil plot by Bettman operatives to get people to care about a Sharks-Canes game on a Friday in October.
I seriously just awoke from a dream where, in the dream, I was re-living a (fictional) pre-season matchup between the two teams. The Canes scored and then somehow the Canes goaltender removed his skates and then stood on the hamstrings of a face-down Logan Couture. Things got rough after this and players began fighting; the biggest part that I can remember from this fight occurred when a Hurricanes player accidentally punched Justin Williams in the face and knocked him out.
You keep bringing up Washington and Pittsburgh, but Corsi is the reason that Toews and Kopitar have more cups than Crosby and Ovechkin.
You keep bringing up Washington and Pittsburgh, but Corsi is the reason that Toews and Kopitar have more cups than Crosby and Ovechkin.
Well I for one have noticed how good Carolina is at the possession game in the past few years. One of the few teams in the league consistently able to beat the sharks at their own strength. However Karlsson has turned the Sharks from a strong possession team to potentially historically dominant, so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
The 2016 pens were corsi dominant as well
lol it wasn't even
To become a historically dominant team.
I understood that Leafs reference.
lol it wasn't even
it's actually a statistical possibility.
Just don't get sick...So excite! Taking the youngest spawn to the game. We are planning a french fry per shot. Will report on weight gained on the morrow...
Too late. The warm ups are killing us...Just don't get sick...
Update: Hurricanes just tied the game at 8 shots to 8
5V5 CF: 15-7 Sharks
5V5 xGF: 0.93-0.45 Sharks
Thank god.
All I could get on the Score app was the score of the game which is irrelevant.