Are you sure?
Ok I'll care also.
CAR vs SJ - Legendary Corsi Battle on Friday
- Thread starter GoldiFox
- Start date
Ok I'll care also.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
The correlation is proven. A team with higher regular season CF% has the exact same chance of winning a playoff series as a team with more regular season points. This is a 56.7% winning percentage since 2007-2007. 94 out of 165 playoff series.
Yes, Washington and Pittsburgh just won Stanley Cups with less than elite Corsi. But both of those teams had two elite superstar #1Cs, an elite superstar winger, and at least one elite goaltender; all 9 of whom could have won the Conn Smythe. Most teams don’t have that.
You can win with good corsi stats, and you can lose. When it comes to a best out of 7 series against one specific team, the equation is way more than what your corsi-numbers look like. You do not simply have 56,7% better chance to win if you have better corsi than the team you play against.
56,7% is definately not outclosing number on a 165 series take either. Try flipping a coin 165 times, id take a wild guess you dont get 50/50 heads and tails.
There is really no correct way to test actual correlation of Corsi and winning. As long as a superstar can make the difference between winning or losing against corsi-champions, you can only speculate. Too much of variable parts and underlying stats and even puck luck going on in the process.
Each team builds their own way of winning. The fact is Pens and Caps have won 15/15 series last 3 years where they didnt play each other, and they have found different ways to do so. They have destroyed all kinds of corsi numbers doing so. Should that prove that there is actually correlation between corsi and losing? No.
A good and talented team that comes together as a group does not need good corsi numbers to have advantage. Thats just hockey, too many variable parts.
Every team has superstars. Its NHL. But If corsi + superstars is the ultimate equation for winning, Tampa should win 5/10 cups (and slightly over) by your proven numbers.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
94 out of 165 says a hell of a lot. Also, Pittsburgh in 2016 was the 2nd best Corsi team and they had the best xGF, and they were by far the best Corsi team after they hired Sullivan. A team that has good Corsi is a team that controls a high percentage of shot attempts, and that gives them a much better chance at winning if all else is equal. That really isn't hard to understand.
Tampa Bay was 7th with a 51.63% Corsi last year and their superstars disappeared in game 7. Corsi+Superstars playing well is more like the Kings and Blackhawks between 2010 and 2015 when they won 5 out of 6 Stanley Cups.
94/165 says more to you than for me and thats fine. That just has a lot of room for errors in my view. And sure, if all else is equal maybe you actually do win 56,7% of the games if you have better corsi, but as hockey is not executed on a vacuum space there will be highly limited amount of those situations and therefore its quite irrelevant.
The whole problem that im having with Corsi is the concept of "shot attempts" and seeing them as higher chance of winning. Not every shot attempt, or shot, is equal and does not give the equal chance to score a goal. Ill trade one hard snipe from high danger area to 10 sloppy shots from the corner of blueline everytime and I think I have better chance at winning the game. And thats also what Trotz pointed out when asked last year.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
You keep bringing up Washington and Pittsburgh, but Corsi is the reason that Toews and Kopitar have more cups than Crosby and Ovechkin.
- Feb 23, 2014
- 26,818
- 83,559
A Bettman gambit!
- Feb 23, 2014
- 26,818
- 83,559
Good thinking by that Canes goalie to be on the safe side to keep the lead.
KaseMeOutside
Based
- Oct 18, 2011
- 44,090
- 9,720
This means there will be so much fun puck possession that actually nobody will have the puck at all and no goals are going to be scored
Alwalys
Phu m.
- May 19, 2010
- 25,894
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Well I for one have noticed how good Carolina is at the possession game in the past few years. One of the few teams in the league consistently able to beat the sharks at their own strength. However Karlsson has turned the Sharks from a strong possession team to potentially historically dominant, so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
The 2016 pens were corsi dominant as well
The 2016 pens were corsi dominant as well
Well, thats quite a black and white approach there. I do not think Corsi is the reason why Kings and Hawks had success. It was one part of the context for sure, but stripping out everything else just isnt right.
In overall context, yes, supressing the shot total of your opponent while simultaneously increasing the scoring chances for yourself is obviously good for you, and Corsi-statistics does show inclination on how you are doing on that part. But again, my problem with Corsi is that it sees every shot as an equal scoring chance and therefore it is hard to correlate it straight into winning games.
And of course im bringing up Washington and Pittsbugh. Wouldnt it be weird if I was showcasing a team with bad corsi, that didnt have success.
I wasnt looking for Corsi-fight as I dont really have a big opinion on that and this propably isnt the right place to have it anyways (just think its one-dimensional way to approach a multi-dimensional game), so im fine just agreeing to disagree too
hotcabbagesoup
why u guys want Celebrini, he played like a weenie
Alwalys
Phu m.
- May 19, 2010
- 25,894
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lol it wasn't even
To become a historically dominant team.
I understood that Leafs reference.
it's actually a statistical possibility.
hotcabbagesoup
why u guys want Celebrini, he played like a weenie
Haha ahhh well it was still funny even if unintended. Last week Leaf fans used that term "historically dominant" both when Matthews scored like 8 goals in 5 games and Morgan Reilly scored more points than every dman in history besides Bobby Orr or something.
And then they go on a two-game losing streak and it quiets down.
It was so embarassing heheh.
"corsi lovers" Yes, yes, the statistics people are the ones with an inexplicable emotional attachment.
So excite! Taking the youngest spawn to the game. We are planning a french fry per shot. Will report on weight gained on the morrow...
hotcabbagesoup
why u guys want Celebrini, he played like a weenie
Dear friends,
A friendly reminder that this game starts at 4:30PST/7:30EST.
Prepare yourselves.
A friendly reminder that this game starts at 4:30PST/7:30EST.
Prepare yourselves.
Just don't get sick...
Too late. The warm ups are killing us...
Boats Ahoes
Registered User
- Apr 28, 2011
- 1,519
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Update: Hurricanes just tied the game at 8 shots to 8
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
NyQuil
Big F$&*in Q
Thank god.
All I could get on the Score app was the score of the game which is irrelevant.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Indeed. I didn’t even cheer for Meier’s goal because it was on the PP and therefore not sustainable.
Corsica.hockey has you covered!
