Confirmed Signing with Link: Capitals sign Ilya Samonov

[Garbage Goal]

Are you familiar with the buffalo sabres

Putting aside all the things you didn’t address, such as the Caps being the team that needs to make a move and Grub being a lower caliber goalie than the two who have moved for first in recent years, are you expecting the Sabres to trade away the first overall? Because that’s the only first they gave.

 

[BigHabs]

I think Carolina would definitely trade for Grubauer.

Not sure what they would send back. Definitely not the 1st this year. It would be hard for them to deal their 1st next year unless they figured Grubauer was the sure thing to get them over the hump.

With Carlson not sure to return or not and Jerabek/Kempny also free agents. Orpik having 1yr left and has slowed down.

I could see a package of one of Carolina’s dmen for Grubauer whether in a package or straight up.

 

[Garbage Goal]

Isles, Philly, and even Canes?

None of the are desperate enough to trade a 1st. Canes have a top three pick, Philly has a GM that already expressed faith in his current goalies and is notorious for patience and not trading away assets, and the aisles are picking relatively high with their 1sts. Isles also have way more problems than just goaltending. You’re also not addressing the fact that Caps are the ones who gave to make a move here. Also not addressing the fact that the Caps are the ones that gave to make a move eventually here.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

That’s the things. Caps are in a position of excess with a player they have to give Grubs spit to now. They have to deal him eventually. Teams don’t have to take him. From a negotiation standpoint it’s the Caps in a position of weakness not the rest of the league. That’s putting aside the historically poor return goalies fetch. Last goalie I remember fetching a first is Andersen and I can’t remember before that. He was much higher profile and went to a relatively desperate team too. Unlike the Caos, the Ducks didn’t have a Samsonov knocking at the door either.

Incorrect. The Caps don't have to deal Grubauer. Samsonov is likely to play in Hershey next year anyway so there's no rush to get Grubauer out of there. As for the return, Grubauer is comparable in age and numbers to Schneider, Anderson, and Martin Jones whom all returned 1st round picks. There are a bunch of teams who need goalies, and some team who thinks they're a solid goalie away from taking that next step will pay up for him.

That said, I'm not 100% wedded to a 2019 1st round pick as the ask. If a team wants to give up an equivalent forward prospect (i.e. Jordan Kyrou from St. Louis) then that could work too.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yeah, I'd be surprised if they just threw Samsonov into the NHL as a back-up. I assume they want him playing as many games as possible right now and work his way up.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

None of the are desperate enough to trade a 1st. Canes have a top three pick, Philly has a GM that already expressed faith in his current goalies and is notorious for patience and not trading away assets, and the aisles are picking relatively high with their 1sts. Isles also have way more problems than just goaltending. You’re also not addressing the fact that Caps are the ones who gave to make a move here. Also not addressing the fact that the Caps are the ones that gave to make a move eventually here.

I mean, back in 2013, New Jersey wasn't desperate for a goaltender, and they signed Schneider. They could have kept Brodeur for one more year.

 

[Garbage Goal]

Incorrect. The Caps don't have to deal Grubauer. Samsonov is likely to play in Hershey next year anyway so there's no rush to get Grubauer out of there. As for the return, Grubauer is comparable in age and numbers to Schneider, Anderson, and Martin Jones whom all returned 1st round picks. There are a bunch of teams who need goalies, and some team who thinks they're a solid goalie away from taking that next step will pay up for him.

That said, I'm not 100% wedded to a 2019 1st round pick as the ask. If a team wants to give up an equivalent forward prospect (i.e. Jordan Kyrou from St. Louis) then that could work too.

You’re telling me the Caps are going to be more willing to waste ELC years in the minors than accept a 2nd or 2nd+ instead of holding out for the possibility for a 1st for a goalie that’s never been a starter?

 

[Garbage Goal]

I mean, back in 2013, New Jersey wasn't desperate for a goaltender, and they signed Schneider. They could have kept Brodeur for one more year.

So the most recent example is from five years ago? And if their only goalie was an 80 year old Brodeur then, yes, they were desperate for a goalie one wary or another.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

So the most recent example is from five years ago? And if their only goalie was an 80 year old Brodeur then, yes, they were desperate for a goalie one wary or another.

Well, I paid more attention to Vancouver than any other team, you know. I mean, I'm not disagreeing with you. I just wanted to know if what I was thinking was right.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

You’re telling me the Caps are going to be more willing to waste ELC years in the minors than accept a 2nd or 2nd+ instead of holding out for the possibility for a 1st for a goalie that’s never been a starter?

I doubt the Caps see it as wasting ELC years. Samsonov needs some seasoning and needs to play as much as possible which he won't do sitting on the bench behind Holtby. Holtby still has 2 years left on his deal. I'll let you connect the dots. Think Tampa Bay for the likely succession plan. Vasi was drafted in 2012 and came over in 2014. He got his feet wet in Syracuse, had a few callups and got in some games, then took over in 2015-2016 for Bishop. Samsonov will likely follow the same path assuming he fulfills his potential.

 

[NotYou]

Putting aside all the things you didn’t address, such as the Caps being the team that needs to make a move and Grub being a lower caliber goalie than the two who have moved for first in recent years, are you expecting the Sabres to trade away the first overall? Because that’s the only first they gave.

Obviously not. They have good prospects and 32 overall and could make Washington very happy.

What you're missing is that when there's competion for an asset the buyers have to appeal to the seller relative to other buyers. If team A would like to give Washington a third rounder based on the logic that Washington has to make a move that's lovely for them. Unless Washington is run by abject morons they will say thank you very much we'll get back to you.

Team B offers a low second because getting grabs at that price is preferable to not getting him. Now if team A wants him they gave to up their offer to be more appealing than team B.

We can see quite easily that the impact of Washington's hand being forced has only had the effect of starting the bidding lower than it otherwise would be. Competition between buyers determines the final price.

 

[Ensane]

For reference, here's what goalies have fetched in trade returns in the recent years. H/T to @Gigantor The Goalie for the image/compilation:

A low first doesn't seem all that outlandish for starters.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Attn: Carolina Hurricanes

 

[Flukeshot]

I could see roughly 30th to 40th overall being a good deal both ways.

Personally, I would rather have Grubauer on the Flyers than Elliott/Neuvirth just as the combination of performance and injury with those two is such a big concern.

But as noted by others, I don't think the Flyers will buy a goalie.

 

[Pelle31]

I don’t think they’d have to look very far to find a suitor.

Just talking within the division, the Flyers have a glaring need and Grubauer would be a good stopgap til Hart, who would become the 1B. Carolina can’t ride with Darling again and expect progression, so they’re probably a little desperate, too.

If I had to pick between the two, Carolina is probably likelier to pull trigger out of desperation.

Depending on what the Capitals do this playoffs, wouldn't trading Holtby and his $6.1 million cap hit for the next two years make more sense? That way the Caps would have more cap space to do a retool.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Depending on what the Capitals do this playoffs, wouldn't trading Holtby and his $6.1 million cap hit for the next two years make more sense? That way the Caps would have more cap space to do a retool.

Depends. If they can get more value out of Grubauer, trading him might not be the bad option after all.

 

[Yamazaki]

Holtby to the sabres for nylander and a pick?

Caps can than resign Carlson

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Holtby to the sabres for nylander and a pick?

Caps can than resign Carlson

I have a feeling he'll get traded to the West, but that's just my gut feeling.

 

[TorontoTrades]

Grubauer and their 1st for Jeff Skinner

 

[hb12xchamps]

You’re telling me the Caps are going to be more willing to waste ELC years in the minors than accept a 2nd or 2nd+ instead of holding out for the possibility for a 1st for a goalie that’s never been a starter?

This might come as a surprise, but Martin Jones was never a starter either. This might come as another surprise, Varlamov was never the official Capitals starting goaltender when they had Varlamov/Neuvrith/Holtby in their system. Both went for a 1st rounder+.

This might also be a surprise, but TB had Vasilevsky start in the AHL before he eventually supplanted Bishop.

 

[THE Green Man]

Incorrect. The Caps don't have to deal Grubauer. Samsonov is likely to play in Hershey next year anyway so there's no rush to get Grubauer out of there. As for the return, Grubauer is comparable in age and numbers to Schneider, Anderson, and Martin Jones whom all returned 1st round picks. There are a bunch of teams who need goalies, and some team who thinks they're a solid goalie away from taking that next step will pay up for him.

That said, I'm not 100% wedded to a 2019 1st round pick as the ask. If a team wants to give up an equivalent forward prospect (i.e. Jordan Kyrou from St. Louis) then that could work too.

Seems odd to me that this would be an option. Sure he could probably use some AHL time, but I doubt Grubauer is taking a bridge deal to stay in Washington. If he is resigned unless Orpik is moved this ensures that Carlson is not brought back. Seems somewhat dumb to tie that much money up in the crease waiting on a prospect and losing who I thought was a Norris contender this year.

There will be lots of teams in the goalie market: Islanders, Philly, Carolina (all in division), St. Louis, Buffalo, Detroit, Calgary and Ottawa. I think a 1st is definitely plausible based on their potentially being that many teams interested as well as the 3 teams that make the most sense are all in division. That drives up the price- and makes sense when 2 of them have multiple 1st rounders.

 

[Kolzilla]

Yeah, I'd be surprised if they just threw Samsonov into the NHL as a back-up. I assume they want him playing as many games as possible right now and work his way up.

I believe this is WSH's strategy moving forward...1 or 2 seasons of Samsonov starting in HER.

 

[Kolzilla]

You’re telling me the Caps are going to be more willing to waste ELC years in the minors than accept a 2nd or 2nd+ instead of holding out for the possibility for a 1st for a goalie that’s never been a starter?

Apparently, you don't understand the arc of goalie development...

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Grubauer to Buffalo for their 2018 2nd round pick.

 

[EdAVSfan]

So the most recent example is from five years ago? And if their only goalie was an 80 year old Brodeur then, yes, they were desperate for a goalie one wary or another.

Martin Jones