Confirmed Signing with Link: Capitals sign Ilya Samonov

FissionFire

Registered User
Dec 22, 2006
12,569
1,091
Las Vegas, NV
www.redwingscentral.com
For reference, here's what goalies have fetched in trade returns in the recent years. H/T to @Gigantor The Goalie for the image/compilation:

f24afob.png


A low first doesn't seem all that outlandish for starters.
That graphic is a bit misleading. For example, listing Raanta+ as netting a 1st+ makes it look like he was he main piece when in reality he was a throw in where Stepan was the main player. Plus he’s much older than many of the guys who were acquired to be starters with a 1st round pick. Grubauer is 26 with only one season topping 30 games whereas guys like Varlamov (22), Lehner (23), and Jones (25) were younger and Schneider (26, 2 years over 30gp) and Andersen (26, 2 seasons as a starter at 43,54gp) were far more proven safe options. Goalies only get that first round pick when they are young and highly regarded or well proven over multiple seasons with a solid workload. Even a guy like Dubnyk had more games under his belt at the same age. The real question is does any team consider Grubauer to be bona fide #1 goalie better than anything else available and worth he high price. He hasn’t hit the 40 game mark in a season since 2014-15 and hasn’t even hit 2000 minutes since then. Can he handle a full starters workload? There are plenty of capable stopgap starter level guys available for far less (like a Jimmy Howard) who can bridge the gap for a season or two or bring stability to a shaky crease short term.
 
Last edited:

Wingsfan 4 life

Registered User
Oct 9, 2016
1,711
428
About freaking time :D

Samsonov is the one goalie prospect I've been anxious to see in NHL action(hopefully he gets a cup of coffeee sometime this year)

Quick question: Am I just misreading the capfriendly tweet? I thought max ELC is
$925 000 for base salary.
 

Ensane

EL GUAPO
Mar 2, 2002
15,746
69
That graphic is a bit misleading. For example, listing Raanta+ as netting a 1st+ makes it look like he was he main piece when in reality he was a throw in where Stepan was the main player. Plus he’s much older than many of the guys who were acquired to be starters with a 1st round pick. Grubauer is 26 with only one season topping 30 games whereas guys like Varlamov (22), Lehner (23), and Jones (25) were younger and Schneider (26, 2 years over 30gp) and Andersen (26, 2 seasons as a starter at 43,54gp) were far more proven safe options. Goalies only get that first round pick when they are young and highly regarded or well proven over multiple seasons with a solid workload.
Fair points. The chart is merely a short hand summary, so I wouldn't say it's misleading as much as it is a simplified snapshot. Market conditions will dictate Grubauer's return more than the points you made in differentiating Grubauer from the rest. He's got 275 professional games under his belt, came through one of the more renowned goaltending pipelines, understudied with a recent Vezina winner and workhorse, which is the reason he hasn't had the opportunities the other had at an earlier age. Because of that, I wouldn't hold his age against him. In fact, some GMs would likely see that as a benefit. All it takes is one team to have scouted him heavily and think he's their guy. To push the market up, all it takes is two. A low first is not a stretch.

Also relevant:
Updating the list from the first page, for your goalie musical chairs needs. Raanta had re-signed and Edmonton added Koskinen yesterday. UFAs listed in parenthesis.

Anaheim: Gibson|Miller
Arizona: Raanta|Kuemper
Calgary: Smith|Rittich|Gillies
Edmonton: Talbot|Koskinen|Montoya
Los Angeles: Quick|Campbell
San Jose: Jones|Dell
Vancouver: Markstrom|Nilsson|Demko
Vegas: Fleury|Subban

Chicago: Crawford|Forsberg
Colorado: Varlamov|(Bernier)|Francouz
Dallas: Bishop|(Lehtonen)
Minnesota: Dubnyk|Stalock
Nashville: Rinne|Saros
St. Louis: Allen|(Hutton)
Winnipeg: Hellebuyck|Mason|(Hutchinson)

Boston: Rask|(Khudobin)
Buffalo: Lehner|(Johnson)|Ullmark
Detroit: Howard|Coreau
Florida: Luongo|Reimer
Montreal: Price|Lindgren|(Niemi)
Ottawa: Anderson|Condon
Tampa Bay: Vasilevskiy|Budaj|(Domingue)
Toronto: Andersen|McElhinney|Pickard

Carolina: Darling|(Ward)
Columbus: Bobrovsky|Korpisalo
New Jersey: Schneider|Kinkaid|(Lack)
NY Islanders: (Halak)|Greiss|Gibson
NY Rangers: Lundqvist|Georgiev|(Pavelec)
Philadelphia: Elliott|Neuvirth|(Mrazek)
Pittsburgh: Murray|Jarry|DeSmith
Washington: Holtby|Grubauer
 

PROMputt

I promise to never forget.
Jan 4, 2008
2,656
575
Lawnguyland
Incorrect. The Caps don't have to deal Grubauer. Samsonov is likely to play in Hershey next year anyway so there's no rush to get Grubauer out of there. As for the return, Grubauer is comparable in age and numbers to Schneider, Anderson, and Martin Jones whom all returned 1st round picks. There are a bunch of teams who need goalies, and some team who thinks they're a solid goalie away from taking that next step will pay up for him.

That said, I'm not 100% wedded to a 2019 1st round pick as the ask. If a team wants to give up an equivalent forward prospect (i.e. Jordan Kyrou from St. Louis) then that could work too.

I agree with you that I am not 100% sold that Grubauer is dealt w/o at least letting Samsonov get his feet wet in the AHL. That being written I hope the Islanders are all in on trying to acquire Grubauer when he is made available. Still don't know if the Caps trade him within the division but if the offer is good enough I think they at least have to listen.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
37,009
13,425
Philadelphia
Samsonov and Grubauer are not interlinked. Samsonov signing his ELC should have little impact on the Capitals' plans for Grubauer. Grubauer is once again an RFA this off-season, and likely due for at least a modest raise after his performance this season. The Capitals likely aren't particularly interested in having an expensive back-up, and similar are very much in need of restocking their farm system and young talent. Grubauer would likely be on the trade block with or without the arrival of Samsonov.

Similarly, Samsonov would (hopefully) be slated for the AHL regardless of what happens to Grubauer. The Caps will likely allow Vanecek and Copley compete for the back-up role in training camp, perhaps with another veteran option mixed in as an insurance policy. That leaves Samsonov an opportunity to be the starter for Hershey (or at least part of a platoon). It's possible Samsonov will get call-ups at various points (perhaps even as a "2B" goaltender that assumes NHL starting duties should Holtby go down for a prolonged injury), but my assumption is that the Caps organization will want him to get regular playing time and a chance to acclimate himself with North American rinks down in the AHL.
 

as Pure as Evil

Registered User
Sep 18, 2011
4,897
2,062
Hell, Alberta
last time the caps ran in to this problem they were able to get a first for varly, Teams are just as desperate for a good goalie and he is more established then varly was at the time he was traded
 

AlexBrovechkin8

At least there was 2018.
Sponsor
Feb 18, 2012
26,744
24,941
District of Champions
You do realize that Buffalo's second round pick is the first one in the second round, in other words it's just one pick out of the first round and the 32nd overall pick. Would give the Caps three picks in the first 50 picks.

Yes, I do realize that. I also realize that other teams who need goalies are picking between 10-20.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hivemind

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
37,009
13,425
Philadelphia
You do realize that Buffalo's second round pick is the first one in the second round, in other words it's just one pick out of the first round and the 32nd overall pick. Would give the Caps three picks in the first 50 picks.
Yes, most of us realize that. But we also realize it may be possible to get a pick about 10 spots earlier than 32 (or have Buffalo throw in an additional later pick).
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
37,009
13,425
Philadelphia
last time the caps ran in to this problem they were able to get a first for varly, Teams are just as desperate for a good goalie and he is more established then varly was at the time he was traded
A 1st AND a 2nd. And the 1st was unprotected 1st round pick for the following year coming from a team picking 3rd overall.
 

Funk21

Registered User
Mar 6, 2013
4,335
1,856
Toronto
I may be the only one here thinking this but I am going to go out on a limb and say that Washington tries to trade Holtby not Grubauer. Washington needs the cap space and Holtby will garner a much bigger return than Grubauer.

A team like Philly or NYI could trade one of their first plus for Holtby. Yup not issue is that trading him in the east might not be the smartest. STL might be another as they will likely have two first next year. Unfortunately they need somebody to take Allen of their hands.
 

justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
11,629
6,249
A 1st AND a 2nd. And the 1st was unprotected 1st round pick for the following year coming from a team picking 3rd overall.

Forsberg and a 2nd. That trade was made post-draft and it wouldn't shock me if this happens again where he's dealt post draft.
 

Vancouver Canucks

Registered User
Feb 8, 2015
14,591
2,587
I may be the only one here thinking this but I am going to go out on a limb and say that Washington tries to trade Holtby not Grubauer. Washington needs the cap space and Holtby will garner a much bigger return than Grubauer.

A team like Philly or NYI could trade one of their first plus for Holtby. Yup not issue is that trading him in the east might not be the smartest. STL might be another as they will likely have two first next year. Unfortunately they need somebody to take Allen of their hands.

Holtby's been looking good in the playoffs. Grubauer hasn't. I think the Capitals will keep the former.
 

BB88

Registered User
Jan 19, 2015
40,796
20,390
I may be the only one here thinking this but I am going to go out on a limb and say that Washington tries to trade Holtby not Grubauer. Washington needs the cap space and Holtby will garner a much bigger return than Grubauer.

A team like Philly or NYI could trade one of their first plus for Holtby. Yup not issue is that trading him in the east might not be the smartest. STL might be another as they will likely have two first next year. Unfortunately they need somebody to take Allen of their hands.

The question would then just be how a team like Washington would do with 2 unproven goalies.
 

AlexBrovechkin8

At least there was 2018.
Sponsor
Feb 18, 2012
26,744
24,941
District of Champions
I may be the only one here thinking this but I am going to go out on a limb and say that Washington tries to trade Holtby not Grubauer. Washington needs the cap space and Holtby will garner a much bigger return than Grubauer.

A team like Philly or NYI could trade one of their first plus for Holtby. Yup not issue is that trading him in the east might not be the smartest. STL might be another as they will likely have two first next year. Unfortunately they need somebody to take Allen of their hands.

I would agree with you had Grubauer taken the reigns during the playoffs but he did not and Holtby looks back to form so I think it'll be Grubauer heading out.
 

DudeWhereIsMakar

Bergevin sent me an offer sheet
Apr 25, 2014
15,596
6,619
Winnipeg
I imagine Grubauer gets traded to a team that missed the playoffs for a veteran star player to help the Caps in the playoffs. They sign an inexperienced AHL goaltender as their back-up and have Holtby start a majority of them, but have Samsonov earn his way up from Hershey.
 

Owen Doty

Registered User
Jan 1, 2018
206
223
Grubauer for Sam Bennett? Would be hesitant to do this as a flames fan, but good goalies don't grow on trees
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->