Speculation: Canucks will offer BiG money AAV but short term on mystery UFA ( possibly John Carlson)

[jd22]

I agree with most of the viewpoints here, but if it can be done for 1-2 years - even at league max - I think it could be worth looking at. Particularly with a two year contract that is heavily front loaded, allowing the Canucks to deal him at TDL #2 at 50% retained while taking on a cap dump.

Meh. It's never going to happen, but it's not the worst idea. Interesting to talk about anyway.

 

[Jyrki21]

"It was the right move at the time" is what i suspect will be an excuse.

Mumble mumble winning culture mumble mumble just look at Edmonton mumble mumble

↳ About a team losing lots of games just like Edmonton.

 

[2011 still hurts]

I'm actually scared of how much long term damage dim Jim/Linden could do with this much cap space

these idiots will find a way to achieve the worst outcome possible over the off-season

please no Bozak/JVR ty

 

[StreetHawk]

Benning/Weisbrod probably think they are so clever here. I bet this is the conversation they had: "Based on previous UFA signings, the issue with highly sought after UFAs is term. Players regress and the contract is bad. Let's just shorten the term and offer them more money, problem solved!" ... yet somehow they fail to recognize that players would rather have guaranteed money on a long-term contract to compensate for career-ending injuries.

God, our management is incompetent.

Their thought is to take the eriksson contract and take the real dollar cap hit basically. If the Canucks hold onto him until his ntc becomes a mntc and they pay his year 5 signing bonus, he would have gotten $31 million from the Canucks for 4 years of service. That’s the only way to completely clear his cap hit off the books in the future.

Only way that can work is for a guy in the age range of an eriksson, backed, ladd when they signed their deals 2 years ago. Talking about 30-31 year olds.

Makes no sense for a 28 year old. The potential of the extra money isn’t worth the risk. Better to have the extra $25 million guaranteed in the books than risk it to gain an extra 7 million or so during the term of 2 contracts.

 

[rypper]

The mystery UFA will be Tyler Bozak.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

this reminds me of the time near the end of the 2010 season, i picked up john carlson in my keeper league right after he'd scored his first NHL goal because he was awesome in the world juniors. i was in a tight race for the league championship.

erik karlsson was also on the waiver pile. karlsson picked up four points in the next two days and was very quickly scooped up. he scored 3 goals and seven assists in the last eight games while carlson only got into four games the rest of the way and got one single assist.

i finished second that year.

 

[me2]

Sounds like a stupid idea.

Sounds like a great way to buy yourself another year or two. If it works, claim credit, if it backfires claim it as intentional tanking.

 

[VanillaCoke]

How does overpaying for a short term (unlikely to be accepted) deal buys you anything. Aside from finishing 20th instead of 28th

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

I don't see this happening.

Like Tavares, he will get just about whatever he wants with term from a team much closer to contending than the Canucks.

If they want to sign ONE player to a term deal and Tavares/Carlson are off the table, at least make it Kane.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

in all seriousness though, guy clears his previous career high in points by eleven and counting in his contract year. you sure you want to buy that jim?

 

[Pavel96]

How does overpaying for a short term (unlikely to be accepted) deal buys you anything. Aside from finishing 20th instead of 28th

Exactly. Management will be able to point to the standings, talk about how the team is getting better despite losing the Sedins, and then they will say - look at all of our new prospects as well. Despite whomever is selected, the draft class of 2018 will be the best yet in canucks history. Those player's last names will be made plural and repeated at press conferences. And then think - bc they did better in the standings they can sign more free agents, make more trades to win now. The cycle will continue. These guys know what they are doing, they've shown that right?

 

[StreetHawk]

How does overpaying for a short term (unlikely to be accepted) deal buys you anything. Aside from finishing 20th instead of 28th

It has to be for the right type of player to help the next core develop a winning atmosphere. That’s the type of player that they would need to target.

Don’t want to be continually losing for much longer.
THat said, no clue who that player would be.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Oh yeah that winning culture horseshit. Because players have never lost in their 16+ year careers before somehow miraculously making the NHL.

Only players on winning teams make the nhl.
No rookies that lost their first few nhl seasons have ever won a cup. FACTS.

Add it to the Benning facts, mentorpede, only veterans can possibly handle the weight of captaincy...

 

[GetFocht]

The more I think about this and hearing Benning/Linden talk about signing a veteran to mentor the kids because the team will be very young next season. I think they will sign Joe Thornton to a 2 year contract at 7-8 million. Similar to when Gillis signed Mats Sundin, there is no way Carlson will sign a short-term contract at this stage in his career, players usually look for a balance of money and security.

 

[VanJack]

Smart enough to pay him 10m? Would secure us being average for more years. Might as well tank properly 1-2 more years.

It's a nice thought, getting Carlson to sign for just three years.....but not happening...he and his agent are going to want at least an Eriksson term....this basically is protection for the player.....once he's in his 30's and the injuries start to pile up, particularly for d-men, he's going to want the protection of a long-term contract with guaranteed money.

Nope, I'm almost resigned to Jimbo paying stupid money on someone like Kane...who's still only 26, but ticks off all the boxes in terms of scoring and physicality....but I'm sure SJ will make a pitch to keep him.

 

[me2]

The more I think about this and hearing Benning/Linden talk about signing a veteran to mentor the kids because the team will be very young next season. I think they will sign Joe Thornton to a 2 year contract at 7-8 million. Similar to when Gillis signed Mats Sundin, there is no way Carlson will sign a short-term contract at this stage in his career, players usually look for a balance of money and security.

Thornton has plenty of money, him coming here is crazy talk imho. He will either stick with SJ or go for a contender to get a cup.

 

[me2]

It's a nice thought, getting Carlson to sign for just three years.....but not happening...he and his agent are going to want at least an Eriksson term....this basically is protection for the player.....once he's in his 30's and the injuries start to pile up, particularly for d-men, he's going to want the protection of a long-term contract with guaranteed money.

Nope, I'm almost resigned to Jimbo paying stupid money on someone like Kane...who's still only 26, but ticks off all the boxes in terms of scoring and physicality....but I'm sure SJ will make a pitch to keep him.

Kane is his most likely his first contract offered (6.5m+*7). If that fails it is guys like Neal and Perron who could chase big short term $$$. It makes way more sense for Neal/Perrin to take $20m over 2 than someone like Carlson. Carlson might get as much as $8m*7 from a desperate GM, $56m guaranteed with $10m/y cash up front for the first 3 years beats $10m/y for 2 years. Neal might feel the maths works better for him taking a big short term deal.

 

[krutovsdonut]

if you assume there is pressure on this team's management to compete and to spend close to the cap to compete, then i like this strategy better than the alternatives. i like the idea of wasting money on as few roster spots as possible for as short a time as possible. if we get decent players out of it, that is a bonus.

in particular, we are going to have to overpay for ufas anyway, so if we are going to do it, why not overpay spectacularly in return for shorter terms. it's not my money.

if benning has the option of standing mostly pat and being $10 million under the cap, i'd be fine with that also.

what frightens me is signing a bunch of long term deals out of a meh ufa pool.

 

[krutovsdonut]

one other comment is that this is not unlike what happened with sundin. so maybe thornton is not a bad guess.

 

[Snatcher Demko]

I don't think Carlson will want to sign with Vancouver on a 3-year deal. Players of his ilk entering UFA will want 7 to 8 years and set them up for life. Moving again after 3 years isn't the goal.

You might be able to get a player like Bozak like that (ie $5mm/yr for 3 years) but that's a shit deal for this team. We already have 3 terrible contracts in Gudbranson, Eriksson and Gagner. No need to add more.

 

[MS]

A prime, sought-after, UFA defenseman from Massachusetts is not signing in bottom-of-the-league Vancouver. It's an insane suggestion.

Yup.

Carlson is going to get $50-60 million guaranteed on a 7-year deal from a good team on the East Coast.

The notion that he'd take $30 million on a shorter contract from a garbage team on the other side of the continent is frankly ludicrous and anyone who thinks this could happen simply does not understand the economics of the sport at all.

 

[me2]

one other comment is that this is not unlike what happened with sundin. so maybe thornton is not a bad guess.

Sundin stepped onto a playoff team, Thornton would be stepping onto a mess. If this was 2 years down the track and Pettersson had broke out, demko was an elite starter and the team's D top 5-10, he might come here.

 

[me2]

if you assume there is pressure on this team's management to compete and to spend close to the cap to compete, then i like this strategy better than the alternatives. i like the idea of wasting money on as few roster spots as possible for as short a time as possible. if we get decent players out of it, that is a bonus.

in particular, we are going to have to overpay for ufas anyway, so if we are going to do it, why not overpay spectacularly in return for shorter terms. it's not my money.

if benning has the option of standing mostly pat and being $10 million under the cap, i'd be fine with that also.

what frightens me is signing a bunch of long term deals out of a meh ufa pool.

Best option is to only make deals that make sense for the future at money that makes sense. If Carlson wants to come on a reasonable wage that is fine but don't keep up the money for the sake of it. Pettersson could well be a $10m+ per season player in a few years, if Boeser is the real deal $8m, etc that cap space will disappear quickly.

Best options given the best UFAs aren't coming nhee

A. Do nothing (keep the powder dry and wait for opportunities)
B. 1 year sign and trades for minor players (the kind that people actually want at the deadline)
C. Big contract for high end college UFAs. If they are good that's good, if not waive them and 2-way cleans up the mess.
D. Very short term deal (1 year) for overpriced but tradable mid tier UFAs.
E. Eat bad 1 year contracts

 

[ATypicalCanadian]

This should add clarifications. Friedman talked about it in his 31 thoughts column. Most of it/if not all is pure speculation on his/people around the leagues part.

2. All of a sudden, Vancouver has more than $20 million to play with for 2018–19. Word is they were very interested in Mikael Backlund before Calgary re-signed him. They have young players with top-six skill - Jonathan Dahlen,
Adam Gaudette
and Elias Pettersson — who might not be ready for full-time top-six roles. How do they bridge that one-, two- or three-year gap? One possibility is they offer some short-term, bigger-money contracts to the group of available free agents.

Their interest in Backlund has opponents thinking they could be an aggressive participant in the market. The other is by leveraging their cap space like Vegas did last summer. We’ll help you, the Canucks can say, but you are going to help us. Two calls I’d be making would be to Chicago and Ottawa. Could the Canucks pitch taking some or all of Marian Hossa’s cap hit and/or Bobby Ryan’s contract, as long as the Blackhawks and Senators make it worth their while? (Ryan would have some control over his destination.)

 

[iceburg]

Yup.

Carlson is going to get $50-60 million guaranteed on a 7-year deal from a good team on the East Coast.

The notion that he'd take $30 million on a shorter contract from a garbage team on the other side of the continent is frankly ludicrous and anyone who thinks this could happen simply does not understand the economics of the sport at all.

Because Carlson is only 28, it is not so black and white IMO. Let's say he's offered something at the lower end of your suggestion: $7.5M x 7 = $52.5M. He could alternatively sign for 3x$10M. Then, at 31 years of age, provided his play hasn't fallen off dramatically, he could get a $8M x 5 because the cap will have increased and there will be a few teams looking to add a top offensive defenseman that still has something left in the tank. I realize this is on the high end of what he could possibly expect over the next 8 years but it amounts to $70M.

So, from purely a total salary potential pov he could take a 3 year then a 5 year and come out quite head if he's a bit of a gambler.

But your points on him likely wanting to play for a competitive team on the east coast will clearly be relevant decision factors. I'm just not sure how much relative to the increase potential earnings. Of course, it's also possible (likely?) that an east coast team offers him the 3x$10M. It will come down to who has the cap space and the need.