The first thing you have to understand here is that 23-24 y/o defensive prospects out of the NCAA is basically a trash-heap that nothing ever good comes from. Signing these guys at all is generally a waste of time even on two-way deals. CHL overagers and Euro guys are far better options with massively higher hit rates.
Good organizations don't fall in love with McKenzie Stewarts.
i am skeptical of the idea that "23-24 year old defensive prospects" is a logically discreet tranche of ncaa ufa players with characteristics radically differentiating them from 22 year old defensive prospects or 23-24 year old forward prospects. i would say the fact dmen that age have not worked out is a factor of small sample size meeting high risk outcome, and that past performance is not an indicator of future results.
So true. We are much better having these guys aren’t we?Virtually nobody good is still playing in the NCAA at age 24.
There are some UFA hits from the NCAA pool, but they're almost entirely guys aged 21-22 who were missed in the USHL at age 18-20 and then quickly separated themselves in the NCAA. Stecher was a guy who was 21-22 and a top defender at a top program ... and after 3 full NHL seasons is less than 10 months younger than Teves.
It shouldn't be rocket science that guys who are really old for this mediocre level and not dominating in their draft+6 season are not very good prospects.
As for the two players specifically, Rafferty's skating was horrendous and Teves looked to me like an undersized ECHLer.
So true. We are much better having these guys aren’t we?
I have to agree here. It's far better to sign for guys who are 22 and under wanting to leave the NCAA for the AHL.The whole thing with NCAA free agents is this bizarre economy where - I'm guessing because not that much else is happening in late March from a player transaction perspective - teams hugely overpay for these dud 23-24 y/o prospects who are OK players at a mediocre level in their draft+5 and draft+6 seasons. And every year, the vast majority end up being Griffin Molinos who can barely even carry their weight in the AHL.
Meanwhile, there are tons of 21-25 y/o defenders playing top-4 minutes and killing it against a much higher level of play and those guys don't get a sniff. It's bizarre.
Like, this guy can't get a contract after destroying the KHL last year at age 25, and he was a competent AHL defender before he left :
Darren Dietz Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com
Virtually nobody good is still playing in the NCAA at age 24.
There are some UFA hits from the NCAA pool, but they're almost entirely guys aged 21-22 who were missed in the USHL at age 18-20 and then quickly separated themselves in the NCAA. Stecher was a guy who was 21-22 and a top defender at a top program ... and after 3 full NHL seasons is less than 10 months younger than Teves.
It shouldn't be rocket science that guys who are really old for this mediocre level and not dominating in their draft+6 season are not very good prospects.
As for the two players specifically, Rafferty's skating was horrendous and Teves looked to me like an undersized ECHLer.
When did I mention a salary cap?
You do see the occasional 25 year old college FA success story like Brandon Tanev or Matt Read but it is rare. It is reasonable to hope for some quality organizational depth in Utica though.I have to agree here. It's far better to sign for guys who are 22 and under wanting to leave the NCAA for the AHL.
There just isn't much development left for guys who are 24 and above. They are pretty much what they are already. I think Teves and Rafferty are going to be depth defenseman if they pan out and that in itself is a win.
Lol why do u have Mackenzie Stewart in quotations. Hes by definition a minor issue. Obviously, he didnt deserve a contract but it's fine because it didnt affect us in any way except a contract spot and we had plenty of contract spots that year. As stupid as it was, it's a very common occurence. Gms fall in love with their prospects and hands out underserved contracts.
The whole thing with NCAA free agents is this bizarre economy where - I'm guessing because not that much else is happening in late March from a player transaction perspective - teams hugely overpay for these dud 23-24 y/o prospects who are OK players at a mediocre level in their draft+5 and draft+6 seasons. And every year, the vast majority end up being Griffin Molinos who can barely even carry their weight in the AHL.
Meanwhile, there are tons of 21-25 y/o defenders playing top-4 minutes and killing it against a much higher level of play and those guys don't get a sniff. It's bizarre.
Like, this guy can't get a contract after destroying the KHL last year at age 25, and he was a competent AHL defender before he left :
Darren Dietz Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com
So what's better to throw the dice on - older college free agents or older European free agents??? Probably the latter.
Good organizations don't fall in love with McKenzie Stewarts.
Bailey is sort of a poor man's Jake Virtanen.
Big guy, rangy strong skater, hard shot ... absolutely no tool box and has never developed the sort of defensive/physical game to allow him to stick in a bottom-6 role. Will be a solid 2nd line type for Utica.
Buffalo fans were tantalized by his tools for years but he could just never do anything with them.
Why do you care about what a bunch of pathetic neets who treat CC like their cult headquarters think?Hey MS,
I don’t want to stray too far from the topic (apology in advance mods), but what the heck happened between you and the Canuckscorner folks from back in the day?
Those guys seem really obsessed with you, lol.
LOL - Page 40 - Vancouver Canucks Messageboard
I’m friends with a few guys over there, but also highly respect your opinions even if we disagree a lot of the time. The difference between me and them however is that they seem to have taken your constructive criticism of their posts (on another message board?) very personally. Those guys also talk quite frequently about RIP Botchford, PG Canuck, Y2K, Melvin, etc.
I’d love to Strangelove come on here more to be honest. I think you guys would have some wickedly good debates.
Why do you care about what a bunch of pathetic neets who treat CC like their cult headquarters think?
A debate on what? Benning has been objectively terrible.Honestly, it’s because I think a debate between Strangelove and MS would effing epic. They are two of the best debators that I know and they stand at opposite ends of the spectrum with regards to this management group.
I go way back with Strange and am also a fan of MS’ postings and so I’d be highly interested in seeing what this World Heavyweight debate match-up would look like, lol.
I never heard of the place before now but I see they have a forty page thread dedicated to obsessing over this forum.Honestly, it’s because I think a debate between Strangelove and MS would effing epic. They are two of the best debators that I know and they stand at opposite ends of the spectrum with regards to this management group.
I go way back with Strange and am also a fan of MS’ postings and so I’d be highly interested in seeing what this World Heavyweight debate match-up would look like, lol.
It makes these players very hard to move. I get overpaying the occasional AHL vet/emergency callups but rookies? It isn't often that what will be likely be career minor leaguers have negative value.Can you explain it to me? Does it affect the cap in any way for the difference in one way and two way? I thought the only difference is the amount they get paid if they get sent to the minors. I feel this is a very minor issue.
It makes these players very hard to move. I get overpaying the occasional AHL vet/emergency callups but rookies? It isn't often that what will be likely be career minor leaguers have negative value.
Looks like their HF thread is more popular than the rest of the site combined. What a depressing way to conduct one's lifeI never heard of the place before now but I see they have a forty page thread dedicated to obsessing over this forum.
Geez, that seems pretty unhealthy to me.
Hey MS,
I don’t want to stray too far from the topic (apology in advance mods), but what the heck happened between you and the Canuckscorner folks from back in the day?
Those guys seem really obsessed with you, lol.
LOL - Page 40 - Vancouver Canucks Messageboard
I’m friends with a few guys over there, but also highly respect your opinions even if we disagree a lot of the time. The difference between me and them however is that they seem to have taken your constructive criticism of their posts (on another message board?) very personally. Those guys also talk quite frequently about RIP Botchford, PG Canuck, Y2K, Melvin, etc.
I’d love to Strangelove come on here more to be honest. I think you guys would have some wickedly good debates.