Canucks Off-season Thread - Canucks re-sign Teves, Rafferty, Boucher

UticaHockey

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Feb 27, 2013
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I wouldn't worry too much about Teves and Rafferty getting paid $700K each to play in Utica the following season. Now paying Loui Eriksson $6M to play in Utica is a different story. But it's more likely they pay Loui Eriksson $6M to play for the Toronto Marlies....
 
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krutovsdonut

eeyore
Sep 25, 2016
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The first thing you have to understand here is that 23-24 y/o defensive prospects out of the NCAA is basically a trash-heap that nothing ever good comes from. Signing these guys at all is generally a waste of time even on two-way deals. CHL overagers and Euro guys are far better options with massively higher hit rates.

i am skeptical of the idea that "23-24 year old defensive prospects" is a logically discreet tranche of ncaa ufa players with characteristics radically differentiating them from 22 year old defensive prospects or 23-24 year old forward prospects. i would say the fact dmen that age have not worked out is a factor of small sample size meeting high risk outcome, and that past performance is not an indicator of future results.
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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i am skeptical of the idea that "23-24 year old defensive prospects" is a logically discreet tranche of ncaa ufa players with characteristics radically differentiating them from 22 year old defensive prospects or 23-24 year old forward prospects. i would say the fact dmen that age have not worked out is a factor of small sample size meeting high risk outcome, and that past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Virtually nobody good is still playing in the NCAA at age 24.

There are some UFA hits from the NCAA pool, but they're almost entirely guys aged 21-22 who were missed in the USHL at age 18-20 and then quickly separated themselves in the NCAA. Stecher was a guy who was 21-22 and a top defender at a top program ... and after 3 full NHL seasons is less than 10 months younger than Teves.

It shouldn't be rocket science that guys who are really old for this mediocre level and not dominating in their draft+6 season are not very good prospects.

As for the two players specifically, Rafferty's skating was horrendous and Teves looked to me like an undersized ECHLer.
 

Fatass

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Apr 17, 2017
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Virtually nobody good is still playing in the NCAA at age 24.

There are some UFA hits from the NCAA pool, but they're almost entirely guys aged 21-22 who were missed in the USHL at age 18-20 and then quickly separated themselves in the NCAA. Stecher was a guy who was 21-22 and a top defender at a top program ... and after 3 full NHL seasons is less than 10 months younger than Teves.

It shouldn't be rocket science that guys who are really old for this mediocre level and not dominating in their draft+6 season are not very good prospects.

As for the two players specifically, Rafferty's skating was horrendous and Teves looked to me like an undersized ECHLer.
So true. We are much better having these guys aren’t we? :huh:
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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So true. We are much better having these guys aren’t we? :huh:

The whole thing with NCAA free agents is this bizarre economy where - I'm guessing because not that much else is happening in late March from a player transaction perspective - teams hugely overpay for these dud 23-24 y/o prospects who are OK players at a mediocre level in their draft+5 and draft+6 seasons. And every year, the vast majority end up being Griffin Molinos who can barely even carry their weight in the AHL.

Meanwhile, there are tons of 21-25 y/o defenders playing top-4 minutes and killing it against a much higher level of play and those guys don't get a sniff. It's bizarre.

Like, this guy can't get a contract after destroying the KHL last year at age 25, and he was a competent AHL defender before he left :

Darren Dietz Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com
 

Lindgren

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Jun 30, 2005
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I'm not that bothered by these contracts. I also wasn't that bothered by the asset given up for Pouliot, or the cost of acquiring Pedan, or trading Shinkaruk for Granlund instead of a pick, or giving up on Forsling for Clendenning, or giving a contract to Stewart, or signing Gagner for that money ... but after a while, these things start to accumulate. As Sam Spade said, "maybe some of them are unimportant — I won't argue about that — but look at the number of them."

 

Phenomenon13

Registered User
Oct 10, 2011
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The whole thing with NCAA free agents is this bizarre economy where - I'm guessing because not that much else is happening in late March from a player transaction perspective - teams hugely overpay for these dud 23-24 y/o prospects who are OK players at a mediocre level in their draft+5 and draft+6 seasons. And every year, the vast majority end up being Griffin Molinos who can barely even carry their weight in the AHL.

Meanwhile, there are tons of 21-25 y/o defenders playing top-4 minutes and killing it against a much higher level of play and those guys don't get a sniff. It's bizarre.

Like, this guy can't get a contract after destroying the KHL last year at age 25, and he was a competent AHL defender before he left :

Darren Dietz Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com
I have to agree here. It's far better to sign for guys who are 22 and under wanting to leave the NCAA for the AHL.

There just isn't much development left for guys who are 24 and above. They are pretty much what they are already. I think Teves and Rafferty are going to be depth defenseman if they pan out and that in itself is a win.
 

RobertKron

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Sep 1, 2007
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Virtually nobody good is still playing in the NCAA at age 24.

There are some UFA hits from the NCAA pool, but they're almost entirely guys aged 21-22 who were missed in the USHL at age 18-20 and then quickly separated themselves in the NCAA. Stecher was a guy who was 21-22 and a top defender at a top program ... and after 3 full NHL seasons is less than 10 months younger than Teves.

It shouldn't be rocket science that guys who are really old for this mediocre level and not dominating in their draft+6 season are not very good prospects.

As for the two players specifically, Rafferty's skating was horrendous and Teves looked to me like an undersized ECHLer.

It's weird how teams have seemingly figured this out such that they aren't chasing after 18-20 year olds who are doing well in Tier II junior, but can't seem to apply the same reasoning to the NCAA.
 

Megaterio Llamas

el rey del mambo
Oct 29, 2011
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I have to agree here. It's far better to sign for guys who are 22 and under wanting to leave the NCAA for the AHL.

There just isn't much development left for guys who are 24 and above. They are pretty much what they are already. I think Teves and Rafferty are going to be depth defenseman if they pan out and that in itself is a win.
You do see the occasional 25 year old college FA success story like Brandon Tanev or Matt Read but it is rare. It is reasonable to hope for some quality organizational depth in Utica though.
 

orcatown

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Feb 13, 2003
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One thing bad about the Rafferty and Teves type contracts is that they tie up space to acquire players. These deals put the Canucks at the allowable limit of contracted players and prevented them from going after free agents, in Europe or elsewhere, from their signing up to the deadline. There were a couple of interesting European and Russian free agents. But we had not ability to pursue them.

So what's better to throw the dice on - older college free agents or older European free agents??? Probably the latter.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
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Montreal, QC
Lol why do u have Mackenzie Stewart in quotations. Hes by definition a minor issue. Obviously, he didnt deserve a contract but it's fine because it didnt affect us in any way except a contract spot and we had plenty of contract spots that year. As stupid as it was, it's a very common occurence. Gms fall in love with their prospects and hands out underserved contracts.

They really don't.

It was a massive issue because it was one of the clearest early signs we received that these people are morons with absolutely no clue how to run a club.

There were a lot of red flags before then, but that was basically the moment I knew we were doomed to be in the basement for the next five years.
 

F A N

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Aug 12, 2005
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The whole thing with NCAA free agents is this bizarre economy where - I'm guessing because not that much else is happening in late March from a player transaction perspective - teams hugely overpay for these dud 23-24 y/o prospects who are OK players at a mediocre level in their draft+5 and draft+6 seasons. And every year, the vast majority end up being Griffin Molinos who can barely even carry their weight in the AHL.

Meanwhile, there are tons of 21-25 y/o defenders playing top-4 minutes and killing it against a much higher level of play and those guys don't get a sniff. It's bizarre.

Like, this guy can't get a contract after destroying the KHL last year at age 25, and he was a competent AHL defender before he left :

Darren Dietz Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

It's an interesting discussion. The KHL is considered a better league than the NCAA, but the NCAAs have also done a great job of producing NHL players. Undrafted college UFAs certainly seem to have a better track record than undrafted CHL UFAs. I would say that there are more examples of undrafted college UFA Dmen who develop into NHL players than those from KHL or even Europe. As for guys who were drafted but went unsigned and went to play in Europe, I'm not sure how many of those guys actually make it to the NHL, whether it is due to a lack of opportunity or otherwise. Forwards seem to have a better time than Dmen in the transition.

I think Rafferty shouldn't be pigeon holed just because he's 24. He's a converted forward who entered college late but drew NHL interest pretty early on. The Canucks were rumored to be interested in him two years ago. I think Rafferty could have signed with an NHL team had he decided to turn pro after his sophomore year. So while he is a year older, he did technically turn pro after his junior year which matches guys like Dekeyser and Sustr. I like Teves less.
 
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F A N

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Aug 12, 2005
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So what's better to throw the dice on - older college free agents or older European free agents??? Probably the latter.

For the Canucks? Probably college free agents. They have had some luck with college UFAs. European UFAs? Not so much.
 

geebaan

7th round busted
Oct 27, 2012
10,180
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Good organizations don't fall in love with McKenzie Stewarts.

It was such a ridiculous signing and ended up being the best foreshadowing for what’s come. I remember making it my avatar because I couldn’t believe they signed a guy to a contract slot contract who’d literally only played ice hockey to get it.
 
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Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
Jun 21, 2014
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Bailey is sort of a poor man's Jake Virtanen.

Big guy, rangy strong skater, hard shot ... absolutely no tool box and has never developed the sort of defensive/physical game to allow him to stick in a bottom-6 role. Will be a solid 2nd line type for Utica.

Buffalo fans were tantalized by his tools for years but he could just never do anything with them.

Hey MS,

I don’t want to stray too far from the topic (apology in advance mods), but what the heck happened between you and the Canuckscorner folks from back in the day?

Those guys seem really obsessed with you, lol.

LOL - Page 40 - Vancouver Canucks Messageboard

I’m friends with a few guys over there, but also highly respect your opinions even if we disagree a lot of the time. The difference between me and them however is that they seem to have taken your constructive criticism of their posts (on another message board?) very personally. Those guys also talk quite frequently about RIP Botchford, PG Canuck, Y2K, Melvin, etc.

I’d love to Strangelove come on here more to be honest. I think you guys would have some wickedly good debates.
 

clunk

Registered User
Dec 10, 2015
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I'm gonna..
Hey MS,

I don’t want to stray too far from the topic (apology in advance mods), but what the heck happened between you and the Canuckscorner folks from back in the day?

Those guys seem really obsessed with you, lol.

LOL - Page 40 - Vancouver Canucks Messageboard

I’m friends with a few guys over there, but also highly respect your opinions even if we disagree a lot of the time. The difference between me and them however is that they seem to have taken your constructive criticism of their posts (on another message board?) very personally. Those guys also talk quite frequently about RIP Botchford, PG Canuck, Y2K, Melvin, etc.

I’d love to Strangelove come on here more to be honest. I think you guys would have some wickedly good debates.
Why do you care about what a bunch of pathetic neets who treat CC like their cult headquarters think?
 

Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
Jun 21, 2014
9,668
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Beijing
Why do you care about what a bunch of pathetic neets who treat CC like their cult headquarters think?

Honestly, it’s because I think a debate between Strangelove and MS would effing epic. They are two of the best debators that I know and they stand at opposite ends of the spectrum with regards to this management group.

I go way back with Strange and am also a fan of MS’ postings and so I’d be highly interested in seeing what this World Heavyweight debate match-up would look like, lol.
 

clunk

Registered User
Dec 10, 2015
11,343
5,417
I'm gonna..
Honestly, it’s because I think a debate between Strangelove and MS would effing epic. They are two of the best debators that I know and they stand at opposite ends of the spectrum with regards to this management group.

I go way back with Strange and am also a fan of MS’ postings and so I’d be highly interested in seeing what this World Heavyweight debate match-up would look like, lol.
A debate on what? Benning has been objectively terrible.
 

Megaterio Llamas

el rey del mambo
Oct 29, 2011
11,219
5,929
North Shore
Honestly, it’s because I think a debate between Strangelove and MS would effing epic. They are two of the best debators that I know and they stand at opposite ends of the spectrum with regards to this management group.

I go way back with Strange and am also a fan of MS’ postings and so I’d be highly interested in seeing what this World Heavyweight debate match-up would look like, lol.
I never heard of the place before now but I see they have a forty page thread dedicated to obsessing over this forum.

Geez, that seems pretty unhealthy to me.
 

me2

Go ahead foot
Jun 28, 2002
37,903
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Make my day.
Can you explain it to me? Does it affect the cap in any way for the difference in one way and two way? I thought the only difference is the amount they get paid if they get sent to the minors. I feel this is a very minor issue.
It makes these players very hard to move. I get overpaying the occasional AHL vet/emergency callups but rookies? It isn't often that what will be likely be career minor leaguers have negative value.
 

BeardyCanuck03

@BeardyCanuck03
Jun 19, 2006
10,823
410
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It makes these players very hard to move. I get overpaying the occasional AHL vet/emergency callups but rookies? It isn't often that what will be likely be career minor leaguers have negative value.

2 year deals... if Rafferty and/or Teves aren't pushing for a roster spot in 2021 they aren't coming back and they aren't going to have any value no matter what their AHL salary is.

This is the definition of the overthinking and overreacting.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
53,362
83,418
Vancouver, BC
Hey MS,

I don’t want to stray too far from the topic (apology in advance mods), but what the heck happened between you and the Canuckscorner folks from back in the day?

Those guys seem really obsessed with you, lol.

LOL - Page 40 - Vancouver Canucks Messageboard

I’m friends with a few guys over there, but also highly respect your opinions even if we disagree a lot of the time. The difference between me and them however is that they seem to have taken your constructive criticism of their posts (on another message board?) very personally. Those guys also talk quite frequently about RIP Botchford, PG Canuck, Y2K, Melvin, etc.

I’d love to Strangelove come on here more to be honest. I think you guys would have some wickedly good debates.

I posted there for a bit in the early 2000s. I was pretty young and tried to engage in honest debate but that whole board was basically an echo chamber for about 5 really weird guys who were all about their super-involved online personas and didn't know jack shit about hockey. One of them would make a really stupid argument (one of the only things I can remember is that they LOVED Dan Cloutier) and you'd respond and then you'd have 5 guys ganging up with the same stupid argument and then all high-fiving each other for drowning you out and how smart they were. It was a waste of time to post there and I really didn't have the time to post on two boards so I left.

And yeah, it's hilarious that they're still obsessed with me 15 years later. They tried coming here last year and their stupid personas with no substance got absolutely destroyed (and not just by me) and they ran back to that board and got even more bitter.
 

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