Can/Will the flyers make the playoffs?

[sabremike]

Sorry we couldn't help tonight, we tried

 

[Appleyard]

After tonight:

#1: Washington: .753% (123 point pace)
#2: Rangers: .625% (103 point pace)
#3: Pittsburgh: .613% (101 point pace)

#1: Florida: .620% (102 point pace)
#2: Tampa Bay: .612% (100 point pace)
#3: Boston: .579% (95 point pace)

#7: Islanders: .601% (99 point pace)
#8: Philly: .580% (95 point pace)

#9: Detroit: .572% (94 point pace)
#10: Carolina: .533% (87 point pace)
#11: New Jersey: .526% (86 point pace)
#12: Ottawa: .507% (83 point pace)
#13: Montreal: .487% (80 point pace)
#14: Buffalo: .474% (78 point pace)
#15: Columbus: .447% (73 point pace)
#16: Toronto: .433% (71 point pace)

To get to 94:

Florida: 0-6-1 (.071%)
Tampa: 0-5-1 (.083%)
Penguins: 1-6-0 (.143%)
Islanders: 2-5-1 (.313%)

Flyers: 3-3-1 (.500%)
Boston: 3-3-0 (.500%)
Detroit: 3-2-1 (.583%)

 

[Appleyard]

According to sportsclubstats Flyers playoff odds now at 70.9%.

And here is the chance of play-offs depending on how they finish:

2-4-1 (92pts) = 24.3%
3-4-0 (93pts) = 50.2%
3-3-1 (94pts) = 69.4%
4-3-0 (95pts) = 89.4%
4-2-1 (96pts) = 96.7%

 

[FlyerFaithful17]

According to sportsclubstats Flyers playoff odds now at 70.9%.

And here is the chance of play-offs depending on how they finish:

2-4-1 (92pts) = 24.3%
3-4-0 (93pts) = 50.2%
3-3-1 (94pts) = 69.4%
4-3-0 (95pts) = 89.4%
4-2-1 (96pts) = 96.7%

I've been thinking for a few weeks that 95 should be the target.

 

[Appleyard]

I've been thinking for a few weeks that 95 should be the target.

It is pretty unlikely they would 'need' 95 now to get it though...

as that would require:

Detroit to go 4-2-0
Boston to go 3-2-1

bearing in mind they play each other once and Detroit play the Flyers too it will basically mean one of those two teams has to win every game that is not a head to head for both of those to happen!

and even still if the Flyers went 4-3-0 to get 95 that would probably be good enough even if the other two got to 95... as I imagine they would be tied in ROW with Boston in that scenario... but have the 2nd tiebreaker.


I mean, if the Flyers beat Detroit that would mean:

The Flyers have to go 2-3-1 in their other 6 remaining games for 94.
Detroit have to go 3-1-1 in their other 5 remaining games for 94.

Basically... just beat Detroit and they *should* be in barring catastrophe elsewhere.

 

[Patrick Division]

That is going to be a tough game. Playing Detroit on the road is no picnic mid season when the stakes are lower. That is going to be a playoff atmosphere.

 

[FlyerFaithful17]

It is pretty unlikely they would 'need' 95 now to get it though...

as that would require:

Detroit to go 4-2-0
Boston to go 3-2-1

bearing in mind they play each other once and Detroit play the Flyers too it will basically mean one of those two teams has to win every game that is not a head to head for both of those to happen!

and even still if the Flyers went 4-3-0 to get 95 that would probably be good enough even if the other two got to 95... as I imagine they would be tied in ROW with Boston in that scenario... but have the 2nd tiebreaker.


I mean, if the Flyers beat Detroit that would mean:

The Flyers have to go 2-3-1 in their other 6 remaining games for 94.
Detroit have to go 3-1-1 in their other 5 remaining games for 94.

Basically... just beat Detroit and they *should* be in barring catastrophe elsewhere.

You are likely right, but I will feel good about it with 95. This team can be stressful enough. If rather be "in" before the last game with a chance to bounce the Isles from the WC1.

 

[sabremike]

That is going to be a tough game. Playing Detroit on the road is no picnic mid season when the stakes are lower. That is going to be a playoff atmosphere.

I know it seems intimidating but there is a reason the Wings are struggling to make it. They simply aren't that good. Take away the name and rep and It's like playing a team like Carolina who are certainly beatable.

 

[Sawdalite]

According to sportsclubstats Flyers playoff odds now at 70.9%.

And here is the chance of play-offs depending on how they finish:

2-4-1 (92pts) = 24.3%
3-4-0 (93pts) = 50.2%
3-3-1 (94pts) = 69.4%
4-3-0 (95pts) = 89.4%
4-2-1 (96pts) = 96.7%

Remaining Schedule:

4 Home - 3 Road
5 PO Contenders - 2 Spoilers
4 Head-to-Heads - 3 Two-Point Games
2 Should Wins - 1 It Depends - 4 Do or Dies (all for lack of better terms)

Home vs CAPITALS
Home vs SENATORS
Road @ PENGUINS
Road @ RED WINGS
Home vs MAPLE LEAFS
Home vs PENGUINS
Road @ ISLANDERS


...The W/L importance depends on who they are against... but the Flyers basically need three Wins and an OTL over these seven Games... A Win over the Wings goes a long way towards making the PostSeason, while a win against the Isles could go a long way towards gaining the higher WC Slot, as I figure it.



The Flyers must up their play over the last couple Games they've played... take advantage of Home Ice... and pray Mason stays in his lofty Zone and stays healthy... Must shoot for at least a Point in every Game, even if that is not the case.

 

[Rebels57]

If our powerplay gets in a rhythm, we are in. If not, it could go either way.

 

[Gsus]

Habs with a big win over Detroit. Still tied, and Detroid outside looking in. Huge huge points for Flyers/Habs.

 

[Roo Mad Bro]

I'm at the point that if we don't get in I'll be really disappointed.

 

[jabba2]

I dont see how they dont get in at this point. Detroit and Boston both with Coyotes-like losses of their own. Both outshoot the opposition by large margins, and lose in regulation.

 

[Appleyard]

After tonight:

#1: Washington: .753% (123 point pace)
#2: Rangers: .625% (103 point pace)
#3: Pittsburgh: .618% (101 point pace)

#1: Tampa Bay: .612% (100 point pace)
#2: Florida: .612% (100 point pace)
#3: Boston: .571% (94 point pace)

#7: Islanders: .607% (99 point pace)
#8: Philly: .580% (95 point pace)

#9: Detroit: .565% (93 point pace)
#10: New Jersey: .532% (87 point pace)
#11: Carolina: .532% (87 point pace)
#12: Ottawa: .507% (83 point pace)
#13: Montreal: .494% (81 point pace)
#14: Buffalo: .474% (78 point pace)
#15: Columbus: .447% (73 point pace)
#16: Toronto: .441% (72 point pace)

To get to 94:

Tampa: 0-5-1 (.083%)
Florida: 0-5-1 (.083%)
Islanders: 1-5-1 (.214%)

Flyers: 3-3-1 (.500%)
Boston: 3-2-0 (.600%)
Detroit: 3-1-1 (.700%)

 

[Sombastate]

What's the earliest we can clinch? Theoretically of course?

Or does it look like it will go to the last game regardless?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

What's the earliest we can clinch? Theoretically of course?

Or does it look like it will go to the last game regardless?

So I think as of Sunday, the magic number to clinch the WC was 15 points. Any combination of Flyers points earned or Red Wings points lost. So I think we're at 11 now.*

*I haven't fact checked this

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

^

Yes, the magic number for the Flyers is 11.

Both teams have 87 points and Detroit has 5 games left.

To answer Devastate's question: that means the earliest they could clinch is next Wednesday (not tomorrow). The Flyers play three games between now and Wednesday; the Wings play two. On Wednesday, the Flyers play Detroit. If the Flyers win all three and Detroit loses both before the head-to-head game, the Flyers could clinch with an OT/SO loss to Detroit. Won't happen, but would be hilarious to see Detroit's playoff streak end in a game they won.

Edit: for Detroit to actually be eliminated on Wednesday, Boston would also have to win their games between now and then, as well. But the scenario above would result in the Flyers clinching.

 

[The Rage Kage]

If they beat the Wings they will most likely make it.

 

[Appleyard]

What's the earliest we can clinch? Theoretically of course?

Or does it look like it will go to the last game regardless?

If:

Flyers win in regulation or OT:

3/30 vs Washington
4/2 vs Ottawa
4/3 @ Pittsburgh

they would have 93pts with 38 ROW and 4 games left

If also:

Boston lose in regulation (or actually lose two in regulation and have 1 OT/SO loss):

4/1 @ St. Louis
4/3 @ Chicago
4/5 vs Carolina

they would have 88 or 89pts with 36 ROW and 2 games left.

Boston would be 4 or 5 points and 2 ROW behind with 2 games left... and Flyers hold the head to head tiebreaker.

So April 5th I believe if results went perfectly... earliest Detroit can be eliminated I believe is the game vs us on April 6th...

 

[LIWingnut24]

What's the likely hood we play Tampa instead of Washington in the first round as the top wild card?

 

[Laveuglette]

What's the likely hood we play Tampa instead of Washington in the first round as the top wild card?

Unlikely. Even if we have more points than Det and Bos, one of them will be higher than us because third in their division. We'd have to pass the Isles, but that is unlikely.

 

[Appleyard]

What's the likely hood we play Tampa instead of Washington in the first round as the top wild card?

Well, it could be either Tampa or Florida atop the Atlantic...

but the Flyers would have to overhaul the Isles to get away from Washington... Pens are realistically too far gone now to catch.

To catch Isles realistically:

If Isles go 3-4-0 down stretch and finish with 97 points and 39 ROW.

Flyers would need to go 5-2-0 and finish with 97 points and 40 ROW to overtake them.

I mean, it is conceivable the Isles go 2-5-0 from here... if so the Flyers would 'only' need to go 4-3-0 to get past them.

That being said I cannot see Isles only getting 4pts from here... Flyers really likely have to go 5-2-0 to have a legit shot of avoiding the Caps.

 

[flyersfan018]

Well, it could be either Tampa or Florida atop the Atlantic...

but the Flyers would have to overhaul the Isles to get away from Washington... Pens are realistically too far gone now to catch.

To catch Isles realistically:

If Isles go 3-4-0 down stretch and finish with 97 points and 39 ROW.

Flyers would need to go 5-2-0 and finish with 97 points and 40 ROW to overtake them.

I mean, it is conceivable the Isles go 2-5-0 from here... if so the Flyers would 'only' need to go 4-3-0 to get past them.

That being said I cannot see Isles only getting 4pts from here... Flyers really likely have to go 5-2-0 to have a legit shot of avoiding the Caps.

Islanders could go let's say 2-3-1 in their next 6. Flyers 4-2. Flyers could potentially move past with a win in their final match-up on April 10th.

The part that sucks is that New York currently has more ROW.

 

[LIWingnut24]

Islanders could go let's say 2-3-1 in their next 6. Flyers 4-2. Flyers could potentially move past with a win in their final match-up on April 10th.

The part that sucks is that New York currently has more ROW.

I just want the right to say my flyers beat out my friends islanders lol

 

[Girouxtiful]

What an awesome time to be a fan.

I expect that we'll make it, and almost hope we face the Caps. I think we match up well, and even if we don't win we're guaranteed a great series. Playoff hockey is playoff hockey, but I'd much prefer a classic series against a great Washington team than something against Tampa or Florida. And then let's say they do win - huge for this team's confidence moving forward, not only in the playoffs but over the next several years as the kids grow up.

This rules. LGF.