Can/Will the flyers make the playoffs?

[Bleed orange]

Flyers 37-25-13 7 GR 87 Points:
WSH
OTT
@PIT
@DET
TOR
PIT
@NYI

Penguins 42-25-8 7 GR 92 Points:
BUF
NSH
@NYI
PHI
@OTT
@WSH
@PHI

Red Wings 38-27-11 6 GR 87 Points:
@MON
MIN
@TOR
PHI
@BOS
@NYR


The flyers after tonight have officially hit the midway point of the season with 41 games played so far. These are the point totals in each of the last 5 seasons for the 8th seed/2nd wild card spot

2014-2015: 98
2013-2014: 93
2012-2013: 55 in 48 games which is a 94 point pace over 82 games
2011-2012: 92
2010-2011: 93

It is tough to project what the required point total will be for this season, but based on the previous 5 years, for arguments sake, let's set the magic number for the last playoff spot at 95 points. I guess if your a pessimist, you can set it at 97, but last years 98 point total by the Penguins seems to be an anomaly compared to previous years

So if 95 points is just good enough for the last playoff spot, and the flyers currently have 45 points in 41 games at 19-15-7, a record of 22-13-6 in the final 41 games would put them 95 for the season

I know it may seem like an uphill battle, but if the flyers can maintain some sort of consistently, I think the playoffs are certainly within reach. All they have to do is play at a slightly better pace than they did in the first 41, and with how bad they were to start the season when they were still getting used to hakstol, I don't think it's that far fetched

Click to read more...

 

[catbellysqueezer]

I can't imagine us getting that many wins in the games remaining.

I didn't realize we were in that bad shape.

 

[Appleyard]

Very much so. ~92 points will be the playoff cut-off this season in all likelihood. The pack is very bunched up this year, while last year there was a lot of separation... so the threshold will be far lower this season.

As things stand right now pace wise if things held true until the wire:

1st: Capitals. 131 points
2nd: Panthers. 106 points (including game that just finished)
3rd: Rangers. 100 points
4th: Detroit. 97 points
5th: Islanders. 97 points
6th: Boston. 94 points
7th: Montreal. 93 points
8th: Tampa Bay. 92 points
9th: Flyers. 90 points
10th: Penguins. 90 points
11th: New Jersey. 88 points
12th: Senators. 88 points (ignoring tonight as it stands)
13th: Carolina. 84 points

Average of 4-12: 92.11
Average of 5-11: 91.93
Average of 6-10: 91.62
Average of 7-9: 91.67
Average of these intervals: 91.83

Last year teams pace at almost same point in season (January 12th):

1st: Penguins. 112 points
2nd: Tampa Bay. 111 points
3rd: Islanders. 111 points
4th: Montreal. 110 points
5th: Rangers. 109 points
6th: Capitals. 104 points
7th: Detroit. 103 points
8th: Panthers. 100 points
9th: Boston. 95 points
10th: Leafs. 92 points
11th: Ottawa. 84 points
12th: Columbus. 80 points
13th: Flyers. 76 points

Average of 4-12: 97.44
Average of 5-11: 98.14
Average of 6-10: 98.80
Average of 7-9: 99.33
Average of these intervals: 98.43 (98 was cut-off at years end)

Statistically speaking it would be virtually impossible for the playoff cut-off this year to be over ~95-96 points in the East now. Almost certainly the most likely scenario is 92 being 8th place in my mind... but could easily fall ~2pts either side of it as well depending on if more separation down stretch.

Realistically... if things went close to 'perfect' I think 90 is the absolute lowest that the last playoff spot can really be this year... and 95 is probably the absolute max. (though 94 feels more likely than 95.)

92 points and the Flyers likely have a 50:50 shot... mainly due to being behind on tiebreaker... 93 and they are more than likely in.

92 would require 21-15-5
93 would require 21-14-6

so yeh, Flyers play as well as they have in last few months down stretch and they have a good shot of getting in.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

nope miss it by 7+ points..

 

[Juicy Pop]

Right on the bubble, 2-3 points short.

 

[Appleyard]

nope miss it by 7+ points..

I doubt it tbh...

they will likely have to go ~17-18-6 (85 points) or worse down the stretch to do that... which would mean they finished with less points than last season.

 

[backburner]

a strong maybe

 

[Sawdalite]

They also didn't have Ghost during the early stretch either.

If they can play as they have from around Game 20 and be consistent and avoid long losing streaks... and be able to keep up with the tighter schedule which has given them so many Games-In-Hand to-date... I believe they have a very good shot.

With that said, all the other teams in the bunched up pack of contenders also have a very good chance... so whoever picks up their play, and foregoes worse play, will battle each other to he end, most likely.

They will of course have to take advantage of head-to-head competition... and pray for the least possible Three-Point Games.

... Again they have shot themselves in the foot by yet another slow start to the Season.

((Was that wishy-washy enough for you? ))

 

[Rebels57]

What is their record since Ghosts arrival? How would that winning percentage project for the remaining games?

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

They definitely can. There are like 5 teams overall who you can pretty much write off, and then maybe 8 teams that will definitely be in. The rest are in a pig pile fighting it out to get it.

It puts Hextall in a tough spot. It's never a good look if you're 9th or 10th in the conference and you sell off assets - it doesn't send a great message to the current players or the fans. But this isn't a Cup-caliber team, and isn't going to be one after the deadline either.

My guess is that they will miss the playoffs somewhat narrowly, but don't sell off many of the obvious assets like Streit and Medvedev.

 

[Appleyard]

They also didn't have Ghost during the early stretch either.

If they can play as they have from around Game 20 and be consistent and avoid long losing streaks... and be able to keep up with the tighter schedule which has given them so many Games-In-Hand to-date... I believe they have a very good shot.

With that said, all the other teams in the bunched up pack of contenders also have a very good chance... so whoever picks up their play, and foregoes worse play, will battle each other to he end, most likely.

They will of course have to take advantage of head-to-head competition... and pray for the least possible Three-Point Games.

... Again they have shot themselves in the foot by yet another slow star to the Season.

((Was that wishy-washy enough for you? )

Yeh, it is basically likely going to be a ~7-9 way battle for 5 slots down the stretch in all likelihood.

The fact that 17 of our next 19 games are in conference will probably mean we know one way or another by the trade-deadline tbh if we have a good or bad stretch.

Washington & Florida are already basically in.
Statistically one of the Rags, Isles or Red Wings pulls away.
One of us, the Penguins, Ottawa of Jersey will very likely fall off.
Toronto, Columbus & Buffalo are already basically out.
Carolina are very close to being out. (they need to go at ~46pts over last 38 to be in with a real shot. So ~21-12-5... that will be very, very tough... though Ottawa did similar last year.)

Boston
Tampa
Montreal
Flyers
New Jersey
Penguins
Ottawa

are all within 3 points of each other atm in terms of pace. (ie if all had played same amount of games.)

 

[CodyTheHuman]

a strong maybe

 

[Bleed orange]

They definitely can. There are like 5 teams overall who you can pretty much write off, and then maybe 8 teams that will definitely be in. The rest are in a pig pile fighting it out to get it.

It puts Hextall in a tough spot. It's never a good look if you're 9th or 10th in the conference and you sell off assets - it doesn't send a great message to the current players or the fans. But this isn't a Cup-caliber team, and isn't going to be one after the deadline either.

My guess is that they will miss the playoffs somewhat narrowly, but don't sell off many of the obvious assets like Streit and Medvedev.

That's the thing, unless your completely hopeless and out of it, if you have a chance at the playoffs, even if you don't think the flyers are a cup-caliber team, why wouldn't you go for it.

I'm a believer that getting some of the young guys some playoff experience, even if they don't win a round, is more beneficial in the long run rather than tanking to get a top 5 pick. Besides, even if they fall just short and end up picking at the 12th-14th range, I'm confident in our management to still get a very good player

 

[Striiker]

They're 2 points out of a playoff spot with games in hand on everyone... obviously yes they could make it.

Of course they could miss it too, but it's going to be close.

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

That's the thing, unless your completely hopeless and out of it, if you have a chance at the playoffs, even if you don't think the flyers are a cup-caliber team, why wouldn't you go for it.

I'm a believer that getting some of the young guys some playoff experience, even if they don't win a round, is more beneficial in the long run rather than tanking to get a top 5 pick. Besides, even if they fall just short and end up picking at the 12th-14th range, I'm confident in our management to still get a very good player

Well... that depends on one's definition of going for it.

If you mean to keep the team together as currently constructed and see how they fare, I am on board.

I wouldn't be on board with selling significant assets to improve the team this season. The Flyers really could make some major upgrades if they wanted to. They have a little cap space now, they've got a few blue chip prospects and a growing group of solid prospects, and they have extra picks this year (2 in the 2nd round, 2 in the third). That's plenty to add talent to what's already here. But I wouldn't be looking to really upgrade either. And I have full faith in Hextall that he would never do anything as stupid as the Adam Oates trade.

 

[Bleed orange]

Well... that depends on one's definition of going for it.

If you mean to keep the team together as currently constructed and see how they fare, I am on board.

I wouldn't be on board with selling significant assets to improve the team this season. The Flyers really could make some major upgrades if they wanted to. They have a little cap space now, they've got a few blue chip prospects and a growing group of solid prospects, and they have extra picks this year (2 in the 2nd round, 2 in the third). That's plenty to add talent to what's already here. But I wouldn't be looking to really upgrade either. And I have full faith in Hextall that he would never do anything as stupid as the Adam Oates trade.

Oh I completely agree Man. I don't mean that the flyers should trade assets to stock for a potential playoff run this year. My point is if they're in the thick of it come trade deadline, I'd rather them try to make the playoffs rather than tank for a top 5 pick.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

well right now they are trending up with a big test this weekend.
only reason they were in contention last year were all those OT/SO losses. they led the league(or were very close to it)
I think they will be a bubble team this year. they cannot afford any injuries to any key players. But I do feel better about our goaltending if Mason goes down.

 

[Laveuglette]

I hope we get in. We have nothing of real value to sell anyway. Getting in the playoffs is the first step before contention. With Ghost and Morin/Sanheim/Provorov coming in the next 2 years, we could have a very good team. Our offense is solid. Just make a couple of key moves and I could see us being a serious team for the 2018 playoffs. Maybe event the 2017 playoffs. Always good news.

 

[dats81]

Highly unpredictable mainly due to this team being very inconsistent.

I do not trust them to keep up the strong play as of late after the All-start break.

 

[PensBrony 6 9*]

If the Flyers are in a playoff spot (or relatively close) at the deadline, I'd stand pat. As it stands, they're in a good spot in terms of prospects. Like everyone keeps saying, they have plenty of picks in this draft to gain forward depth. They aren't in a position where they need to stockpile picks anymore, at least not in this year's draft. Getting back into the playoffs, in my opinion, would be more important for the long term development of the team. You can have all of the prospects you want, but without a taste of success, they may stagnate. That's one of the problems with a team like Edmonton, for example. Talented roster, but there's a losing culture there, meaning guys have gotten used to losing, have accepted it, and now just collect their paychecks. Not everyone, but enough to where it has a pretty big effect I think. You want playoff success to be a carrot on a stick for the young guys, not some kind of vague goal they hope to achieve later in their careers.

 

[Hakroach]

I did some work with game-by-game statistics. The Flyers played a bad stretch from Oct 27 to Nov 21. In thirteen games between those dates Flyers were 2-7-4 and only got 8 points out of possible 26. Otherwise they have been a .600-team in winning percent but during that time they were a .300-team. If they would have performed on the same level in those thirteen games as they otherwise have, they would have 54 points and would be in solid 2nd place in the Metro.

During that time Flyers scored only 19 goals and allowed 39 for differential of -20. In all other games they have scored 74 and allowed 68 for +6 goals. Same thing with shots for and allowed:
27Oct-21Nov: 361-435=-74
Rest of the season: 870-882=-12

It would be interesting to see what the advanced stats say about the Flyers performance during that time period compared to the rest of the season.

All in all, I would say that if the Flyers keep up their level and play their ".600"-game they will make the playoffs. But they really need to improve their goalscoring to keep winning. Only Anaheim has scored less.

 

[bb12]

I think it is way too tough to perdict. There are too many teams close together that just arent cup contenders. Boston, NJ, Philly Ottawa, Pitt, Carolina, Tampa and even NYR and NYI. None of those teams are built for a cup run imo.

That being said, anyone of those teams could go on a hot streak and jump in the standings and separate themselves from this bunch and join FLA and Washington. Or they can go on a cold streak lose 3-4 in a row and get left in the dust.

There are too many teams too close with too much uncertainty.

 

[Curufinwe]

I think the PP will need to get going for them to make the playoffs. I can't believe it's 29th.

 

[BillDineen]

I could be close. Regardless, they should be sellers at the deadline.

 

[Striiker]

I think the PP will need to get going for them to make the playoffs. I can't believe it's 29th.

Hopefully Ghost coming back will be a boost like it was when he first came up.