Can the Leafs afford to wait for Liljegren and Sandin?

[Gary Nylund]

The Leafs have played 1 bad game against St.Louis. SO lets assume the leafs have been terrible. Laughable.

I agree we haven't been terrible. We haven't been very good either, maybe mediocre is a better word for how we've played most nights. Really good game against WSH, really bad game against STL and mostly mediocre the rest of the time.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I'd take his production over the odd defensive gaf any day.

We will see what management says.

 

[ToneDog]

TBH they have played one good game this year and have had A LOT of puck luck.

2 solid games, Dallas and Washington.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I cannot get on board with moving Nylander for futures alone.

Mostly because we are a win now team.
The Window will be the length of Matthews next contract

 

[biotk]

The Leafs have played 1 bad game against St.Louis. SO lets assume the leafs have been terrible. Laughable.

If you think that the Leafs have only played 1 bad game this year, and think that Kapanen has replaced Nylander, and think that the Matthews line has played well - I will not bother wasting any of my time with you.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

If you think that the Leafs have only played 1 bad game this year, and think that Kapanen has replaced Nylander, and think that the Matthews line has played well - I will not bother wasting any of my time with you.

IMO the Leafs have been competitive in all of their games with the exception of the last one. I guess it depends on how you define bad? Maybe some people around here expected the Leafs, with their defense constructed the way it is, was going to light this league on fire.

Man expectations have really gotten silly around Leafs nation. People need to pump the breaks and realise the NHL is a tough league.

What exactly do you expect of the Matthews line? Im guessing anything shy of McDavid has you wanting them traded right?

 

[Gary Nylund]

2 solid games, Dallas and Washington.

Yeah the Dallas game was pretty good too.

 

[Voodoo Child]

People are forgetting because it's not as urgent an issue as it is with our forwards, but at some point soon we're going to need good, effective and cheap depth on D.

Were already almost certainly walking away from Jake.

Reilly makes 5 a year for this year and the three after...don't focus on his improving at the moment, if he stays steady as a 50 point guy he's getting at least 7 per on his next deal. If he improves he is looking at Carlson money+.

Kadri the same year will probably need a come up to at least six and Freddy the year before will also want at least six.

Zaitsev is still here but I find the money fine but the term is odious.

Dermott will probably come in somewhere around 3-4.5.

Were gonna have Tavares (11), Matthews (11+), Marner (8+), hopefully Willy, Freddy (6+), Kadri (6+) and Rielly (6.5+).

We need to have competent second pair young D on ELC deals to compete.

And as such I have no problem waiting. Liljegren is ready next opening day at the earliest and Sandin the one after that at the earliest. I can wait.

 

[biotk]

What exactly do you expect of the Matthews line? Im guessing anything shy of McDavid has you wanting them traded right?

How about not being the worst line on the team in everything from CF% to HDCF% despite having extremely favourable zone starts. How about being ale to get out of their own zone with possession so that they don't get lit up so bad that Matthews' line has allowed as many goals against 5v5 in his first 9 games as they allowed in his first 30 games last year. (Last year 30 GP 30 GF 11 GA HDCF% 58% at 5v5 despite 46% OZ starts. This year 9 GP 9 GF 11 GA HDCF% 44% with 62% OZ starts - leading all NHL forwards for most 5v5 GA this season and 8th highest among forwards in xGA in the NHL - again despite very favourable zone starts and with opposing teams having a harder matchup decision)

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

They are not that far away. I expect both to be on the bottom pairing to star next year. Dermott will move up to the second pair to replace Gardiner and hopefully we can finally find a partner for Reilly.

 

[Gary Nylund]

They are not that far away. I expect both to be on the bottom pairing to star next year. Dermott will move up to the second pair to replace Gardiner and hopefully we can finally find a partner for Reilly.

The question is, where do we find this guy? The way I see it, the future of our defence is one of these choices:

1 - resign Gardiner
2 - sign a UFA
3 - cut ties with Gardiner and make a trade.

Counting on a UFA seems foolhardy so that leaves Gardiner or a trade. If people are assuming Gardiner is gone then a trade is the only option and if that's the case, then we may as well make it sooner as opposed to later. Understand though that you gotta give to get and I'd be fine with parting with Sandin or Liljegren as part of the package assuming we get someone that can be part of the team for many years to come. Maybe Liljegren is good for 15 years once he arrives in the NHL but if we get back someone who can play for us at a high level for 7-8 years, that's not bad.

We can't have everything. Keep all our key offensive guys and not give up any of our top prospects and trade for a guy who moves the needle on defence just isn't realistic.

 

[LeafGrief]

There are some things that we should be patient with and there are also times when we need to act decisively or miss opportunities. We need to be patient with Liljegren and Sandin, letting them develop (and keeping them in the org) will be huge for the long term health of our team. Rushing them is a recipe for long term disaster and trading them for a quick fix now would need to be an absolute slam-dunk to make any sense.

But this year is also one of the biggest opportunities that the Leafs will ever have with this core. We have Matthews and Marner on ELC's which gives us the cap space to really load up and try to go deep this year. Patience is important, but we cannot just let opportunities like this pass by. This isn't poker where we can wait for the perfect hand, there will always be other strong teams in the league. We need to take advantage of every edge that we can and ice the best team we can every year. Going all-in would be a mistake, but sitting on our hands and waiting for Liljegren and Sandin is also a mistake.

IMO, we trade our first and some prospects to pick up a high quality D rental for this year. Unless we can find a hockey trade for Gardiner, we keep him as well. That's a significant investment in the team this year, but it's also not raiding the cupboards. Keep Liljegren and Sandin developing, but moves to win today are important.

John Tavares took a discount here because he wants to win. If Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are going to take discounts they want to win. Liljegren and Sandin could be very important pieces for us in the future, but they are not going to help us win today.

 

[dangomon]

Yeah the Dallas game was pretty good too.

Honestly I think the Ottawa game was one of our better ones too (even though we lost). We out-shot, out-chanced and out-possessed them, but a couple breakdowns and a stellar Craig Anderson lost us the game.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Well I for one absolutely think we can win this season and I think we should absolutely be trying to get a Dman to help now. I also think we shouldn't count on Liljegren and Sandin to put us over the top as even if they can do it, we're likely waiting a couple of years for that to happen. I think our window is huge, if we're lucky it could be a decade+. That doesn't mean we should be content to waste the first couple of years of that window though.

It's a fine line to walk - win now vs win later. We should be trying to do both which means difficult decisions will need to be made. I don't think we should be looking to trade our top 2 D prospects for help now but I also think that if we can make a deal to improve our team now, it's not a deal breaker if that means we get a bit older at the same time.

I also agree that we should be aiming to win now (as well as later). With our biggest need being a competent all around top 4 Right Dman who can be trusted to take on matchups, kill penalties, etc.

Fans of this team are far afraid to go for it because of years of the team being bad. Signing Tavares was a clear move to starting winning now though.

We are a top end team right now. Some fans will say we lack X but every single team in the league has flaws.

Rielly + Kadri are also in their primes right now on great deals for 4 seasons (including this season). Good luck getting high end players at their level for those prices down the road. There contract period is the prime window to win. We will be waiting till at least 20-21 for either Lilj and Sanhiem to be 20+ a night guys with a possibility they actually never become that.

We really should be trying to get a 2 or 3 year stop gap Dman who we could squeeze into our cap situation to bridge the gap to Sanhiem and Lilj. Looking at the standing think names like Martinez (3 years @ 4M), Hjalmarsson (3 years @ 5M), Demers (3 years @ 4M). Solid vets who'd bump Hainsey out of the top 4 role.

However, there is a lot of considerations and deals don't typically happen till the deadline. By that point Dubas will have a much clearer view on Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Kapanen and Marleau.

 

[Havoc]

Tavares is here for 7 years.

When he leaves, big 3 are all under 30 years old still.


Everyone needs to take a deep breath and stop trading everyone away and stay the course.

You want to be the best team in the league then be the best team in the league. Draft and develop your own D that other teams wish they had.

Canes did it. Ducks did it. Look at the draft positions of guys like Manson and Pesce and Slavin.

Our team is in a unique position where it can literally be a cup contender every season for the next 10-12 years as long as nobody on HFBoards runs it.

 

[Luminiferous]

Mostly because we are a win now team.
The Window will be the length of Matthews next contract

Win now = 8-10 years ? Lololololol.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I also agree that we should be aiming to win now (as well as later). With our biggest need being a competent all around top 4 Right Dman who can be trusted to take on matchups, kill penalties, etc.

Fans of this team are far afraid to go for it because of years of the team being bad. Signing Tavares was a clear move to starting winning now though.

We are a top end team right now. Some fans will say we lack X but every single team in the league has flaws.

Rielly + Kadri are also in their primes right now on great deals for 4 seasons (including this season). Good luck getting high end players at their level for those prices down the road. There contract period is the prime window to win. We will be waiting till at least 20-21 for either Lilj and Sanhiem to be 20+ a night guys with a possibility they actually never become that.

We really should be trying to get a 2 or 3 year stop gap Dman who we could squeeze into our cap situation to bridge the gap to Sanhiem and Lilj. Looking at the standing think names like Martinez (3 years @ 4M), Hjalmarsson (3 years @ 5M), Demers (3 years @ 4M). Solid vets who'd bump Hainsey out of the top 4 role.

However, there is a lot of considerations and deals don't typically happen till the deadline. By that point Dubas will have a much clearer view on Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Kapanen and Marleau.

So the question is, should be be willing to part with one of Sandin/Liljegren if that's what it takes to get someone like Martinez, Hjalmarsson or Demers?

 

[Daisy Jane]

Do you know why the Oilers are terrible? Because they do not have a defensman that can move the puck. Im not sure people understand how important puck moving defensman are to the defensive side of the game. If you cannot move the puck down the ice with possession, you are simply not going to exit your zone. Its a joke that we feel like Jake Gardiner is the only defenseman to make mistakes defensively. Shane Ghostibhere, John Carlsson, Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, Tyson Barrie, Keith Yandle, John Klingberg, are all guys that are raved about because of their offensive play, yet all of them are probably worse defensively then Gardiner. We need to appreciate what Jake Gardiner is, and understand how difficult it is to be a top 4 defenseman in the national hockey league.

Fact* Did you know that 15 teams in the NHL didnt have a defenseman that scored 50 or more points? Doesnt that tell you something?

you know why the Oilers are terrible? Because they have Lucic playing in the line up and he's not very good, and a lot of money spent on players who aren't performing for them. I don't think the Oilers having a puck moving defenseman would have fixed all their woes last season - better depth scoring, and goaltending would have (on top of having more competent defense).

What always amuses me is that people think that people who don't care for Jake - feels that Jake needs to be perfect, and everyone else can just be themselves, and poor Jake. So again, for the umpteenth time.

I know what Jake is. I appreciate the nuances that Jake skillset brings. I get that he is a good skating, puck moving defenseman. I don't want to invest in that type of defenseman of which - we have several. Forgive me and others for thinking that as we have a few of those in the system, and on the team, that wanting someone who - shock of all shocks - wants to actually play defensive-minded hockey (note. this does not mean a Roman Polak which is always the first 'counter' argument - but simply a defenseman who can also skate/move the puck, but doesn't go for offense, or is more defensive in nature).

Not to mention, I would rather not invest that much money to a defenseman that under pressure makes egrious mistakes. constantly - so no. it's not the "odd defensive gaff' or "just game seven." Jake is not a cerebral type of player. and forgive me for not wanting to commit heavily in such a player.

 

[Gary Nylund]

you know why the Oilers are terrible? Because they have Lucic playing in the line up and he's not very good, and a lot of money spent on players who aren't performing for them. I don't think the Oilers having a puck moving defenseman would have fixed all their woes last season - better depth scoring, and goaltending would have (on top of having more competent defense).

What always amuses me is that people think that people who don't care for Jake - feels that Jake needs to be perfect, and everyone else can just be themselves, and poor Jake. So again, for the umpteenth time.

I know what Jake is. I appreciate the nuances that Jake skillset brings. I get that he is a good skating, puck moving defenseman. I don't want to invest in that type of defenseman of which - we have several. Forgive me and others for thinking that as we have a few of those in the system, and on the team, that wanting someone who - shock of all shocks - wants to actually play defensive-minded hockey (note. this does not mean a Roman Polak which is always the first 'counter' argument - but simply a defenseman who can also skate/move the puck, but doesn't go for offense, or is more defensive in nature).

Not to mention, I would rather not invest that much money to a defenseman that under pressure makes egrious mistakes. constantly - so no. it's not the "odd defensive gaff' or "just game seven." Jake is not a cerebral type of player. and forgive me for not wanting to commit heavily in such a player.

So you want to invest in a more cerebral Dman. That's fine in principle, unfortunately we don't have a player like that. If you have ideas on who you'd like and how we can get him, I'm all ears.

Also, for the umpteenth time, Jake does not "constantly" make egregious mistakes. This false narrative is really getting old.

 

[Zizzzzy]

Yes. This notion that we must trade away offense for defense to accelerate our rebuild is what will kill us. Our core is still so young and while we have the potential to win it all now, really we have several years of growth ahead of us and lots of time to fill from within.

Our inability to reliably exit the zone when we have possession isn't suddenly solved by one stud D. There is a lot more growth needed by everybody.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

you know why the Oilers are terrible? Because they have Lucic playing in the line up and he's not very good, and a lot of money spent on players who aren't performing for them. I don't think the Oilers having a puck moving defenseman would have fixed all their woes last season - better depth scoring, and goaltending would have (on top of having more competent defense).

What always amuses me is that people think that people who don't care for Jake - feels that Jake needs to be perfect, and everyone else can just be themselves, and poor Jake. So again, for the umpteenth time.

I know what Jake is. I appreciate the nuances that Jake skillset brings. I get that he is a good skating, puck moving defenseman. I don't want to invest in that type of defenseman of which - we have several. Forgive me and others for thinking that as we have a few of those in the system, and on the team, that wanting someone who - shock of all shocks - wants to actually play defensive-minded hockey (note. this does not mean a Roman Polak which is always the first 'counter' argument - but simply a defenseman who can also skate/move the puck, but doesn't go for offense, or is more defensive in nature).

Not to mention, I would rather not invest that much money to a defenseman that under pressure makes egrious mistakes. constantly - so no. it's not the "odd defensive gaff' or "just game seven." Jake is not a cerebral type of player. and forgive me for not wanting to commit heavily in such a player.

Ok, so you are unable to look passed Gardiners obvious defensive brain farts. You are however able to overlook the fact that Jake Gardiner over the last 3 seasons has the 2nd best Corsi against in the entire NHL amongst active defenseman. Meaning his goalie faces less shots with him on the ice, then any other player on his team. If you are using stats as your metric (rather then eye test) Jake Gardiner is our best defenseman.

With that said, what exactly is your plan moving forward to fix the defense? Simply remove our best defensman from a statistics perspective because the fans arent happy with him when he makes a mistake. Replace him with arguably our worst defensman right now (dermott) and elevate a rookie into the lineup? Its funny because the Oilers had their Jake Gardiner, and chose to exile him for the same reasons you are with Jake. Now out of a Canadian market and away from an idiot of a general manager, Justin Schultz has become a top defenseman in the league. Lets learn from mistakes that have been made by other teams, not duplicate them.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Win now = 8-10 years ? Lololololol.

10 year contracts aren't allowed in the CBA.

So you dont buy the idea that the Leafs best chance of winning is in the next 8 years with Tavares and Matthews ?

By signing Tavares, to me, Management is in full win now mode.

 

[Luminiferous]

8-10 counting this season. I know 10 years is not allowed.

I buy the idea that obtaining Matthews and Tavares moved the Leafs forward in their overall goal to win a cup. I do not buy that they are in win now mode. When you are in win now mode, you obtain the final piece. The leafs have a putrid defence and are still looking for consistency from the roster.

I laugh at the idea of purging the future for a shot at not winning the cup.

This roster ain't winning shit.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ok, so you are unable to look passed Gardiners obvious defensive brain farts. You are however able to overlook the fact that Jake Gardiner over the last 3 seasons has the 2nd best Corsi against in the entire NHL amongst active defenseman. Meaning his goalie faces less shots with him on the ice, then any other player on his team. If you are using stats as your metric (rather then eye test) Jake Gardiner is our best defenseman.

With that said, what exactly is your plan moving forward to fix the defense? Simply remove our best defensman from a statistics perspective because the fans arent happy with him when he makes a mistake. Replace him with arguably our worst defensman right now (dermott) and elevate a rookie into the lineup? Its funny because the Oilers had their Jake Gardiner, and chose to exile him for the same reasons you are with Jake. Now out of a Canadian market and away from an idiot of a general manager, Justin Schultz has become a top defenseman in the league. Lets learn from mistakes that have been made by other teams, not duplicate them.

Nice post, agree 100%. Once people get stuck on a narrative though, it's almost impossible to move them off it no matter how many facts you show them. There are people who have an irrational dislike of Gardiner and I doubt that'll ever change.

8-10 counting this season. I know 10 years is not allowed.

I buy the idea that obtaining Matthews and Tavares moved the Leafs forward in their overall goal to win a cup. I do not buy that they are in win now mode. When you are in win now mode, you obtain the final piece. The leafs have a putrid defence and are still looking for consistency from the roster.

I laugh at the idea of purging the future for a shot at not winning the cup.

This roster ain't winning ****.

I wouldn't complain too much about "consistency from the roster", it's October FFS.

Tied for 6th overall last season suggests some degree of consistency.

Who's talking about purging the future?

This team is a lot better than some people realize.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

So the question is, should be be willing to part with one of Sandin/Liljegren if that's what it takes to get someone like Martinez, Hjalmarsson or Demers?

Only for Martinez and that's with salary retention would I start to entertain that if I were Dubas.

I'd personally look at dealing picks and forward depth first.

However, for the right piece and/or amount of retention Lilj or Sanhiem should definitely be on the table.