Can Lucic bounce back?

[McDNicks17]

Players go on PDO benders all time. I can find stretches where Kassian put up good point totals in under 20 games (like how he ended 2015/2016 with Hall and Draisaitl). I can find stretches where Ryan Jones put up good numbers in short periods. You can do this for any bottom 6 player

Lucic was glued to either Mcdavids or Draisaitls hip at every point he should be putting up those points over 82 games to justify his spot in the line up and 6 mil. His play was bad and he was making everyone worse off

In his 131 games as an Oiler before he fell off a cliff in 2018, he scored at a 51 point pace.

Saying he's basically never been good as an Oiler is just people with short memories trying to rewrite history to fit their tiresome doom and gloom narrative.

 

[shoop]

You are right, it is the recency effect. Do you realize the recency effect is used to describe cognitive BIAS that actually clouds the true facts? In this context, recency effect would say that you are biased against Lucic's recovery simply because of his last stretch of play. You are quoting a phenomenon that, yes does explain/rationalize, but also discredits your position.

Yeah....

Half a season is more than a 'stretch of play'.

The bias in the recency effect is less valuable in sports due to injury and other factors associated with the natural aging of the human body.

Do provide any proof from academic literature that "discredits my position" in the context of sports performance if you really want to go down this rabbit hole.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

In his 131 games as an Oiler before he fell off a cliff in 2018, he scored at a 51 point pace.

Saying he's basically never been good as an Oiler is just people with short memories trying to rewrite history to fit their tiresome doom and gloom narrative.

Truth means very little to some Lucic haters.

It's just an avenue for them to vent.

 

[Soundwave]

He just doesn't fit this team, and never really has.

He doesn't play well with either McDavid or Draisaitl. And now RNH is off with McDavid, so that leaves him with who? Strome? He has no chemistry with anyone else here.

His even strength production has always been bad here.

I expect about 14-15 goals, 34-40 points from him, nothing more. He's beginning the downside of his career and I don't think he wants to be here either, which is always a nice bonus.

 

[bucks_oil]

Yeah....

Half a season is more than a 'stretch of play'.

The bias in the recency effect is less valuable in sports due to injury and other factors associated with the natural aging of the human body.

Do provide any proof from academic literature that "discredits my position" in the context of sports performance if you really want to go down this rabbit hole.

I'm just saying you are using the term "recency effect" incorrectly. It basically says one would be over-influenced (biased) by the most recent data. Recency Effect (SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY) - IResearchNet

Since you are trying to make the point that Lucic most recent performance IS predictive of his future, you'd want to refer to data points (say each game in the sequence of the last 40+ games, or blocks of 20 games going back several seasons) that point to a trend... and that trend will continue.

Like I said (and all that I said)... "Recency Effect" does not support your position.

 

[shoop]

I'm just saying you are using the term "recency effect" incorrectly. It basically says one would be over-influenced (biased) by the most recent data.

So you are saying you don't have any research where the recency effect is applied to or changes predictions in a sports environment?

"rececy effect" is a phrase not a word while we are at it.

I'm all for a bounce back year for Looch. Truly hoping for it. But go ahead with your pedantic quibble all you want.

 

[Soundwave]

His 6 points in 13 playoff games was also a dud. That prorates to a 38 point season.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

His 6 points in 13 playoff games was also a dud. That prorates to a 38 point season.

Mark Letestu had 11 points in 13 game....prorates to 69 points a game

so stud then?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Mark Letestu had 11 points in 13 game....prorates to 69 points a game

so stud then?

Letestu was very good in the playoffs.

Lucic had a nice view of a few GWGAs.

 

[bucks_oil]

So you are saying you don't have any research where the recency effect is applied to or changes predictions in a sports environment?

Ha... I’m just trying to help you. If you want to sound smart and quote elementary psych, you should at least know the terminology.

As for examples of the Recency Effect in sport, no problem:
1) as it relates to Lucic, it could be used to explain how he got into a slump in the first place. He starts missing nets, hitting posts, etc... these data points become the most salient in his self assessment rather than the 180+ goals he’s scored in his career. It creates self doubt (bias due to limited recent data) rather than self confidence (based on the overwhelming body of evidence saying that he CAN score at the NHL level). A slumping Lucic could be applying the fallacy of the Recency Effect.
2) as for Hfboards, fans do this all the time... many wanted Hall traded for example cuz he struggled the last half of his final year here rather than the body of evidence that came before it. Again that’s a Recency Effect.

Anyway... carry on.

 

[Tyrolean]

Send him to the AHL if he has such a horrible year. Don't play him in place of others that can help the team. That's the main problem with coaching this team. Players don't get rewarded all the time on merit.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I know it's just one pic but boy does it ever look like Lucic has slimmed down!

(If somebody else can embed tweets, I still can't figure it out)

Looks like a step in the right direction for sure

 

[joestevens29]

Send him to the AHL if he has such a horrible year. Don't play him in place of others that can help the team. That's the main problem with coaching this team. Players don't get rewarded all the time on merit.

You can't. He has NMC. Press box is the only alternative

There is a reason why TM was doing everything in his power to get Lucic going. It is in the team's best interest for him to be doing something positive. In a lost season TM was trying to get him going for this year or at the very least show that he could play to be able to trade him.

Now options are limited

 

[Aceboogie]

In his 131 games as an Oiler before he fell off a cliff in 2018, he scored at a 51 point pace.

Saying he's basically never been good as an Oiler is just people with short memories trying to rewrite history to fit their tiresome doom and gloom narrative.

No its not lol. I was saying that Lucic was playing horribly in the middle of the 2016/2017 season when literally everything was sunshine and rainbows in Oiler land. I was met with the extremely hilarious narrative that "hes saving it for playoffs" only to have Lucic go completely invisible as playoffs. People hopped on the "Lucic is bad" bandwagon last season as a result of the Oiler doing bad and needing people to blame, but I was already on that wagon for a year. I take Lucics points with a grain of salt TBH as he was stapled to the best player in the league for 90% of his time here. McDavids production away from Lucic was also noticeably better. So in order to get some average production from Lucic we sacrificed even more points from McDavid

In fact, Lucic has been propped up by his linemates for 4 years now- dating back to McDavid (2 years), Kopitar and then Marchand. All players had much better numbers way from Lucic. The red flags for Lucic have been there for several years now. He just got prime linemates in Boston and then in LA because they paid alot for him, and then in Edmonton because they overpaid drastically to get him here. Soon the coaches and GM will realize hes not a top 6 player and his production will tank even harder than it already has when hes in the bottom 6. Lucic is literally a walking Ponzi Scheme and we got left holding the $6M bag

 

[Bryanbryoil]

He looks to be in the right mindset and also looks a bit leaner. I think that Looch has his best season yet as an Oiler this season.

 

[Soundwave]

He's never been out of shape here, that's not the problem. The problem is he doesn't play well with either McDavid or Draisaitl because he's never going to be a fast guy but worse he reads the game slow. He's not creative enough to play with players like that.

His advanced numbers with Draisaitl are even worse than with McDavid, they're among the worst combinations on the team. When those two are on the ice together the team gets outscored at an alarming rate and he drags Draisaitl down into the toilet.

He's a third line player for this team.

 

[Raoul Duke]

He's never been out of shape here, that's not the problem. The problem is he doesn't play well with either McDavid or Draisaitl because he's never going to be a fast guy but worse he reads the game slow. He's not creative enough to play with players like that.

His advanced numbers with Draisaitl are even worse than with McDavid, they're among the worst combinations on the team. When those two are on the ice together the team gets outscored at an alarming rate and he drags Draisaitl down into the toilet.

He's a third line player for this team.

I agree. He should be on the third line. The problem is that can, arguably, describe every single winger on the team. Somebody needs to play top 6.

Lucic played with skill before and was successful. I’m not sure I believe he will, but if he can put it together this season it would go a long way toward getting into the playoffs again.

Plus maybe then we could ditch him next offseason.

 

[Hopelesslucicfan]

Lucic should have to earn a top 6 spot again after last year's performance.

Give me

Nuge McDavid rattie
JP Drai Reider
Lucic Strome Khaira
Cagguila brodziak Kassian

If Lucic starts looking like a decent player again he can move up and take whoever's strugglings spot.

 

[Louis Cypher]

Lucic should have to earn a top 6 spot again after last year's performance.

Give me

Nuge McDavid rattie
JP Drai Reider
Lucic Strome Khaira
Cagguila brodziak Kassian

If Lucic starts looking like a decent player again he can move up and take whoever's strugglings spot.

So play JP and JJ out of position just so you can play Lucic on the 3rd line?

 

[Jumptheshark]

he can not play any worse

 

[Fourier]

So play JP and JJ out of position just so you can play Lucic on the 3rd line?

Rieder can play both sides. In fact he is a LHRW so at the very least on that line no one would have to play out of position.

 

[Hopelesslucicfan]

So play JP and JJ out of position just so you can play Lucic on the 3rd line?

JP was being used as a left winger last year.

Khaira isn't going to be playing center if they have settled on Strome as a C.

Youd rather Lucic be handed back a top 6 spot rather than give Jp a chance to play with some offensive talent?

 

[MessierII]

JP was being used as a left winger last year.

When? I don’t remember this once. He’s always played right wing.

 

[Gordian Knot]

If he can be very effective 3rd liner or can come back to top six form we can evade kick in the nuts. Otherwise we are going into another season carried by our few stars just to see our hands slipping off from playoff spot.

 

[Wewillrise]

Only time JP was on the left side was on the PP