Can Lucic bounce back?
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nexttothemoon
and again...
Lucic-Khaira-Kassian
That would make a nasty 4th line.
Sure you might say, you can't have Lucic @6 million on the 4th line but they can have the ES minutes per line spread out something like this... 16-13-11-11 (roughly that ratio at ES).
So the 3rd and 4th lines can effectively be equal minutes of TOI at ES.
1 RNH-McD-JP
2 Rieder-Drai-Aberg
3A Upshall-Brodziak-Strome
3B Lucic-Khaira-Kassian
Rattie/Caggiula
Top 2 lines have good speed and (hopefully) can outscore the competition.
3A line is your checking line that keeps other top lines in check and hopefully can pot some decent offense as well.
3B line is your destruction line that roughs up and runs over the opposition and also hopefully can score more than your average 4th line as well.
That would make a nasty 4th line.
Sure you might say, you can't have Lucic @6 million on the 4th line but they can have the ES minutes per line spread out something like this... 16-13-11-11 (roughly that ratio at ES).
So the 3rd and 4th lines can effectively be equal minutes of TOI at ES.
1 RNH-McD-JP
2 Rieder-Drai-Aberg
3A Upshall-Brodziak-Strome
3B Lucic-Khaira-Kassian
Rattie/Caggiula
Top 2 lines have good speed and (hopefully) can outscore the competition.
3A line is your checking line that keeps other top lines in check and hopefully can pot some decent offense as well.
3B line is your destruction line that roughs up and runs over the opposition and also hopefully can score more than your average 4th line as well.
Niten Ichi Ryu
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2018
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A nice rebound in his production would be beneficial but I would be more ecstatic if he brought back the Lucic hurricane of intimidation. I want that Lucic that every other fanbase hates, the Milan that defined the Boston Bruins throughout the past decade. I don't know that he can bring back his scoring touch and offensive flair he used to have, but he sure can bring back the Bear
This is a friendly reminder that Lucic only had one bad half season in his Oilers career
Just to put things into perspective
If you really want to parse last year into halves then this is a more realistic analysis. The first half of last season for Lucic was disappointing and mediocre...
The second half of last season for Lucic was a disaster. There was a 29 game stretch in the second half of last season where Lucic didn't score a goal. The start of Lucic's dry spell was right around the start of that 1-6-1 fiasco after the Christmas break that tanked the Oilers season.
bobbythebrain
Registered User
- Jul 30, 2016
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How so? He had 26 points, w/ 20 of them at evens. That is an improvement from the year prior.
Lucic was not the problem the first 2 months of the season...far from it
My mistake. Looch was decent in the first half of last season. He actually had 27 points in the first half of the season.
Still only emphasizes how horrific his second half was. 7 points. $425K a point in the second half of the season.
As much as I hate it, the HF universe seems to love the 'on pace' argument, and Lucic was on pace for his career norm through the first half of last season. Was the back half horrible? Yes. But the fact is he's only had one bad half a season over his career, and it came after he'd already delivered what they signed him to do the season prior. But leave it to this board to try so hard to spin a narritive that he can't play hockey at the NHL level and that he can in no way ever be a useful player ever again.
It's honestly ridiculous how these boards talk about him when all anyone does is blow complete smoke out of their ass.
It wasn't merely a bad half season. It was horrendous. He got paid $425K PER POINT in the second half of last season.
Looch's play was barely NHL level in the last half of the season. On a good team Looch would have been press box'd or sent to the minors.
There is a recency effect too. It's not just that Looch has only had one horrendous half season in his career. It's also that Looch's horrendous half season is the last half season that he played. Don't blame the board for calling out Looch's terrible play in the last half of the season. Facts are facts.
The only 'fact' presented on these boards is he had one bad half of a season. Nobody acknowledges that before Christmas he was on par to do what he'd done every year over his entire career. I don't care when it happened. You're talking about a 29 year old career 45-55 point player doing the same thing year in and year out with the exception of one bad 40 game stretch in which the entire team was absolutely dogshit outside of McDavid.
If you take these boards seriously, that means that this same 29 year old Is now incapable of playing NHL hockey, will never ever be able to return to form,and will never be impactful in this game again and must be given away for free.
You want facts? That's the biggest load of horseshit I've ever seen. Fact.
If we're suddenly defining a player by a 39 game sample size in which he obviously had some huge mental hurdles for the rest of his career, then I don't see a point in even discussing anything.
guymez
The Seldom Seen Kid
- Mar 3, 2004
- 33,076
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KeithIsActuallyBad
You thrust your pelvis, huh!
The team wasn't very good, that much is true...
But Lucic was offensively bad. A buy brought in for his supposed character and ability and that was completely absent for half the season.
Nobody's saying he's incapable of playing NHL hockey going forward but there are valid reasons for concern given the state of today's game and the fact he's not exactly going to get faster.
Kaua'i used to be a great place to go......but over the last ten years or so it's gotten very unfriendly. I was with my wife and, then, 18 month old daughter, and was basically threatened that if I didn't leave the beach they would beat the shit out of me.
Was a shock because we had been going there for years. We since moved on to Maui, it's a nice blend of stuff to do and getting lost in nature.
As for the other talk about the USA being the "worst place ever"......please!?!?
Like every where in the world it has it's good places and it's not so good places.
I'm 48, I've lived/worked (oil & gas) in all but one continent, been to about 150 different countries and found that they are all the same for the most part.
Sure you are going to have geological, temperature and cultural differences in a lot of them. But for the most part they are filled with people that are trying to carve out a better life for their kids than they had.
If you think the USA is a cesspool, I'd suggest trying a little harder to see the great things it has to offer. Because there are a lot.....
Signed,
A Canadian Living in Houston
PS: As for Lucic......I think his 60 point days are done, but he's still got some 35-45 seasons left in him. All depends on what he comes into camp looking like. If he's lost weight and increased his foot speed he'll be okay. If he shows up thinking he's gonna be on McDavid's wing again and it will sort itself out.......well, that's going to make for a long year.
oobga
Tier 2 Fan
- Aug 1, 2003
- 23,218
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Interesting chart
Basically looking at shot events, and then seeing the passer/shooter involved with each. Across the top are the passers, down the side shooters, and their events together are the counts.
Put this in the Lucic thread, because I was stunned by the Lucic+McDavid stats.
We all recall how McDavid went on a goal scoring explosion in 2018. We also recall how Lucic was glued to his hip for 2 months in 2018. Somehow Lucic, in a combined 420 5v5 minutes with McDavid only managed to assist on 5 shots McDavid took. Drai assisted on 30 McDavid shots in 499 minutes at 5v5. 11 for Maroon in 524 minutes, although most of that time was with a sick McDavid and when he wasn't taking over the whole NHL with a crazy run that he had in 2018.
Sorry to add to some Lucic negativity, but still, pretty shocking numbers how little Lucic took part in McDavid's goal scoring explosion with all that gifted icetime.
Basically looking at shot events, and then seeing the passer/shooter involved with each. Across the top are the passers, down the side shooters, and their events together are the counts.
Put this in the Lucic thread, because I was stunned by the Lucic+McDavid stats.
We all recall how McDavid went on a goal scoring explosion in 2018. We also recall how Lucic was glued to his hip for 2 months in 2018. Somehow Lucic, in a combined 420 5v5 minutes with McDavid only managed to assist on 5 shots McDavid took. Drai assisted on 30 McDavid shots in 499 minutes at 5v5. 11 for Maroon in 524 minutes, although most of that time was with a sick McDavid and when he wasn't taking over the whole NHL with a crazy run that he had in 2018.
Sorry to add to some Lucic negativity, but still, pretty shocking numbers how little Lucic took part in McDavid's goal scoring explosion with all that gifted icetime.
McDNicks17
Moderator
oobga
Tier 2 Fan
- Aug 1, 2003
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I think it's just going simply by who passed to a guy that took a shot. And I think the axis are right. For each cell, the guy at the top was the passer, the guy to the left was the shooter. So McDavid passed to Lucic before 10 Lucic shots (what a nice guy trying to help poor Lucic out). Lucic passed to McDavid before 5 McDavid shots.
Just look at the counts under McDavid at the top, lots and lots of shots taken by various guys that McDavid passed to. Klef took 32 shots off McDavid passes thanks to our brilliant tactic this year to feed the points endlessly for long range shots (usually with no one near the front of the net).
McDNicks17
Moderator
This is why we need more detail haha.
To me, it says when you look at a box, the horizontal is the passer and the vertical is the shooter.
McDavid led the team by a county mile in shots, so I think it makes more sense if that second from the right column is his shots rather than passes.
oobga
Tier 2 Fan
- Aug 1, 2003
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Good point. Mcdavid's horizontal line is pretty sparse. but, I think it may actually be true that he is just doing it all on his own 5v5 and not many guys, aside from Drai, were making a play to get him the puck before his shots.
Here is on chart with a note on Sid that I think makes it clear the name on top is the passer.
very possible that this guy is excluding passes that happen on the defensive end of the ice. I would have expected more passer counts from D to McDavid (before McDavid goes end to end and does it all himself) if those were counted.
I think the Oilers just plain old sucked at cycling and forechecking. Some other teams have way more counts in these charts. We are very much a rush or nothing team, and McDavid or Drai are usually the guys carrying for the rush. They pass or shoot and if it doesn't go in, we either get it back and send it to the D for a weak attempt, or we can't recover and are heading back to our zone.
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Aceboogie
Registered User
- Aug 25, 2012
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This is a friendly reminder that Lucic only had one bad half season in his Oilers career
Just to put things into perspective
Lucic had 10 good games as an Oiler to end the 2016/17 season. The other 90% hes varied from meh to poor to outright atrocious
Lucic has not only had one bad half season as an Oiler. He was saved by his PP numbers the first year, which based on his career PP numbers was most likely an outlier. I mean it'd be great if the Oilers could count on him to be a second or third liner who could be a beast in front of the net on the PP, but there really isn't much precedent for that. Ryan Smyth he is not.
Just based on the eye test, Lucic has really struggled with puck control his entire time in Edmonton. He is not good at clearing the zone and regularly turns the puck over in terrible areas on the ice. For him to bounce back, he needs to find a role that doesn't involve going up against the other team's top forwards and defenceman every night, i.e. nowhere near McDavid, and honestly he probably shouldn't be with Draisaitl either.
Gulutzan has talked about having the team play a quicker, more aggressive style, and I just don't see how Lucic fits with that at all. Any line he's on is going to have to deal with his weaknesses, which are speed and passing. And that will break any high tempo offence quicker than anything. I want to be optimistic, but at this point I'm really just hoping for a lucky year for Lucic where his S% is abnormally high, and maybe another big PP year, because I just haven't been impressed with him over the last two seasons. Hoping for the best though, the Oilers could really use a player like him playing at his best.
Just based on the eye test, Lucic has really struggled with puck control his entire time in Edmonton. He is not good at clearing the zone and regularly turns the puck over in terrible areas on the ice. For him to bounce back, he needs to find a role that doesn't involve going up against the other team's top forwards and defenceman every night, i.e. nowhere near McDavid, and honestly he probably shouldn't be with Draisaitl either.
Gulutzan has talked about having the team play a quicker, more aggressive style, and I just don't see how Lucic fits with that at all. Any line he's on is going to have to deal with his weaknesses, which are speed and passing. And that will break any high tempo offence quicker than anything. I want to be optimistic, but at this point I'm really just hoping for a lucky year for Lucic where his S% is abnormally high, and maybe another big PP year, because I just haven't been impressed with him over the last two seasons. Hoping for the best though, the Oilers could really use a player like him playing at his best.
Delicious Pancakes
Top Pocket Find
Yeah I counted McDavid's shots at 179 and he had 274 for the year. Klefbom shows 50 shots in that chart and he had 203 shots for the year. The chart needs more info to understand context.
McDNicks17
Moderator
Where does he rank on the meh to atrocious scale for his 17 points in 19 games in Nov/Dec of 16/17 or his 20 points in 26 games to end that season or the 26 points in 36 games to start last season?
You really have to bend the facts to fit that narrative.
Aceboogie
Registered User
- Aug 25, 2012
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Players go on PDO benders all time. I can find stretches where Kassian put up good point totals in under 20 games (like how he ended 2015/2016 with Hall and Draisaitl). I can find stretches where Ryan Jones put up good numbers in short periods. You can do this for any bottom 6 player
Lucic was glued to either Mcdavids or Draisaitls hip at every point he should be putting up those points over 82 games to justify his spot in the line up and 6 mil. His play was bad and he was making everyone worse off
bucks_oil
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- Aug 25, 2005
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You are right, it is the recency effect. Do you realize the recency effect is used to describe cognitive BIAS that actually clouds the true facts? In this context, recency effect would say that you are biased against Lucic's recovery simply because of his last stretch of play. You are quoting a phenomenon that, yes does explain/rationalize, but also discredits your position.
bucks_oil
Registered User
- Aug 25, 2005
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Terribly off topic, but...
Thanks for this. As a Canadian living in Boston I've heard about enough criticism from afar as I can take, obviously this has increased over the last two years (and made any rational counter-discussion with friends or family difficult). I mean if the USA had no redeeming qualities, (like curing hepatitis C, which was the world's #1 infectious disease until a few years ago and on the way to curing certain cancers)... I wouldn't need to live here. All other things equal (and they are not), I'd rather live in Canada of course, but that's just not the way it is right now.
We Canadian's think of ourselves as fair and open minded, but we can certainly quickly become reductionist and judgey when it comes to our southern neighbor. Let's not be that.
True story: My mother in law can't get a visitor's visa to Canada due to the nation where my wife grew up (she's now a Canadian citizen, but grew up elsewhere). Yet she had no problem getting a visitor's visa to the USA and visits us (and her grandkids) here all the time. My parents and I wrote to our local MP and instead of commenting on Canada's poor policy, he just went on about Trump and said it was surprising that she was able to get into the USA. I'm sorry, but that's not helping dude... you are supposed to be worried about making Canada a better place.
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