Calgary vs San Jose 7 game series

[WingsMJN2965]

Calgary would easily win if they had Jimmy Howard. For the mere cost of a 1st round pick.

 

[CraigsList]

84 is 84% of 100. 16 points away. Is that really “near”? Is that really “at or to a short distance away”? By your definition, Brayden Schenn, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ricard Rakell, and Josh Bailey were all “near” Gaudreau last season. Are you making that argument as well?

I’m sure he’ll finish the season around 100. It doesn’t change that that is definitely out of his norm, which is what many posters initially took issue with.

Good one, genius. Shame that the NHL only plays 82 games and not 100. Maybe you don't see the progresson JG has made, but we have. He has been dominating every year he's played. You also have to remember that he had a streaky Ferland as the RW last season.

 

[Iggys Dome]

Pacing for 100 most of the season means nothing when you don’t score 100. He could have been pacing for 60, the fact is that he scored 84.



Has he really been steadily progressing each and every year? Statistically speaking, ranking by point shares and adjusted points in order to adjust for last year being a higher scoring year, his best seasons are ranked as follows:

2018-2019
2015-2016
2017-2018
2014-2015
2016-2017

So, prior to this season, his worst season occurred more recently than his best one. That’s hardly “steadily progressing each and every year”.

Points and goals generally peak around ages 22-25 for forwards. I agree that Gaudreau has made some improvements on his game this season, but as you mention, he is currently one of the best wingers in the game right now. That can be defined as “out of the norm” for him. Last season, he finished 8th in points for wingers. In 2015-2016, his best season before this one, he finished 4th in scoring for wingers. Given his defensive play and general contributions outside of scoring, I reckon there are quite a few other wingers who scored fewer points than him in those seasons but were better players.

So, maybe a top-5 winger in his best year and maybe a top-10 winger last year. He’s a great player who is having a season that can best be described as a deviation from the mean. Kind of like Taylor Hall last season.

As someone who has actually been watching Gaudreau since 2013, yes he has been steadily progressing each and every year. Points don't have to be increasing linearly to substantiate this. Gaudreau is on his 3rd different coach and 3rd different system in 5 years, and yet he has only been getting better. He is more confident and more selfish than he has ever been, and with a linemate like Lindholm (instead of Ferland, or Brouwer, or Chiasson) he's really been able to be more creative and doesn't have pressure to shoulder the offensive load as much.

You say that this is likely his peak season, but what you don't understand is Gaudreau's development path is much different than most elite wingers. He spent 1 year in the USHL and 3 years in college before making his NHL debut, this was mainly due to his size and the fear that he would not be able to translate his skill over to the NHL at the age of 18, which was the right decision. The organization was very patient in developing Gaudreau, despite the fact that we desperately needed a offensive dynamo and could have easily rushed him when he was 19. Gaudreau has 5 full NHL seasons under his belt, playing a style that minimizes physical contact and maximizes his IQ and hands. This is a style that can prolong an NHL career, and I wouldn't be surprised if he played at an elite (PPG) level until his early to mid 30's. Is he gonna get 100+ points every season, or even 90? Probably not, that's not how getting better each year works. Gaudreau is a top 3 winger in the game. I don't say this lightly, Gaudreau can take over a game, and as a fan of a team in the Pacific division you know this.

Gaudreau is not having an "out of the norm" season, he is simply following his development path. If you actually watched Flames games instead of stat watching you'd know this as well. In response to your point about his "defensive play and general contributions outside of scoring", this would have been accurate in January 2017, where Gulutzan didn't emphasize Johnny improve his 200 ft game. You know why Gaudreau's having the best season of his career so far? Because Peters set out to improve his defensive game in September, in fact he made sure to improve Monahan and Lindholm's as well. This is why our first line is so deadly, they're not focusing solely on offence 5v5 anymore. They've tightened up defensively, and as the saying goes the best offence is a good defence. It's translating to more opportunities on the counter-attack and our system and style of play translates to more PP opportunities, which PP1 takes advantage of.

It's clear that you have a hard-on for hating the Flames since we wrecked your shit on New Years, Bennett was slashed by Dell and gave a clean hit on Simek, who returned two games later. Sharks are a good team, and I hope we see you in the playoffs.

 

[Ducksauce]

I like the Flames more on paper, but like San Jose's experience.

Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm has probably been the second best line in the league this year. Rittich has a few question marks, but then again so does Jones.

Karlsson can win a series by himself if he gets on his game. You could also argue that Giordano has been the best defense men in the league this year. Calgary is very disciplined and has a PP that can make you pay. I think San Jose forwards might struggle getting matched up against Backlund and Tkachuk. San Jose has great depth in that forward group though and could overcome that.

I say Flames in 7, but could really go either way. Flames are the younger team looking to open their window of contention and San Jose is an older team looking to finally get over the hump before the window shrinks to a close. Take your pick.

 

[Tkachuky]

84 is 84% of 100. 16 points away. Is that really “near”? Is that really “at or to a short distance away”? By your definition, Brayden Schenn, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ricard Rakell, and Josh Bailey were all “near” Gaudreau last season. Are you making that argument as well?

I’m sure he’ll finish the season around 100. It doesn’t change that that is definitely out of his norm, which is what many posters initially took issue with.

The only thing against him is the season he was injured and had lower points. Outside of that he has progressed overall.

I think his sample size is good enough to realize he is truly a 90-100 point player.

And then there’s the eye test...

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

As someone who has actually been watching Gaudreau since 2013, yes he has been steadily progressing each and every year. Points don't have to be increasing linearly to substantiate this. Gaudreau is on his 3rd different coach and 3rd different system in 5 years, and yet he has only been getting better. He is more confident and more selfish than he has ever been, and with a linemate like Lindholm (instead of Ferland, or Brouwer, or Chiasson) he's really been able to be more creative and doesn't have pressure to shoulder the offensive load as much.

You say that this is likely his peak season, but what you don't understand is Gaudreau's development path is much different than most elite wingers. He spent 1 year in the USHL and 3 years in college before making his NHL debut, this was mainly due to his size and the fear that he would not be able to translate his skill over to the NHL at the age of 18, which was the right decision. The organization was very patient in developing Gaudreau, despite the fact that we desperately needed a offensive dynamo and could have easily rushed him when he was 19. Gaudreau has 5 full NHL seasons under his belt, playing a style that minimizes physical contact and maximizes his IQ and hands. This is a style that can prolong an NHL career, and I wouldn't be surprised if he played at an elite (PPG) level until his early to mid 30's. Is he gonna get 100+ points every season, or even 90? Probably not, that's not how getting better each year works. Gaudreau is a top 3 winger in the game. I don't say this lightly, Gaudreau can take over a game, and as a fan of a team in the Pacific division you know this.

Gaudreau is not having an "out of the norm" season, he is simply following his development path. If you actually watched Flames games instead of stat watching you'd know this as well. In response to your point about his "defensive play and general contributions outside of scoring", this would have been accurate in January 2017, where Gulutzan didn't emphasize Johnny improve his 200 ft game. You know why Gaudreau's having the best season of his career so far? Because Peters set out to improve his defensive game in September, in fact he made sure to improve Monahan and Lindholm's as well. This is why our first line is so deadly, they're not focusing solely on offence 5v5 anymore. They've tightened up defensively, and as the saying goes the best offence is a good defence. It's translating to more opportunities on the counter-attack and our system and style of play translates to more PP opportunities, which PP1 takes advantage of.

It's clear that you have a hard-on for hating the Flames since we wrecked your **** on New Years, Bennett was slashed by Dell and gave a clean hit on Simek, who returned two games later. Sharks are a good team, and I hope we see you in the playoffs.

I’ve watched plenty of Gaudreau. He hasn’t been improving every year. This year is his best but this early stretch will end up being the best of his career. This is out of his norm. Statistics do remove some context for sure but more importantly, they remove bias from both sides, and make it clear that Gaudreau really hasn’t improved his game every year. This season is statistically “out of the norm”. His contribution to goals for and goals against is statistically “out of the norm”. You can say that every season has been the best of his career or whatever, but when we look at his statistical contribution to goals for and against, that is just flat out not true.

On top of that, just look into his underlying metrics. His shooting percentage is 5.7% higher than his career shooting percentage.

I don’t have a hard-on for hating the Flames, what I have is a tendency to laugh at how quickly HFBoards is willing to anoint certain teams and players as being legitimately elite after such a minuscule sample size that is in contrast with what they have done over a much larger one. On top of that, I find it especially funny to see them doing that when this team is elite at nothing except for except for drawing penalties and scoring short handed goals.

You want to bring up my biases as a guy who hates the Flames, but buddy, I think it’s time you take a look in the mirror. You spend a hell of a lot more time talking about the Flames than I do, you spend a hell of a lot more time posting about them, and I’m sure that you invest plenty of your money in them. Sure, I dislike them, but I don’t have anywhere near as much emotional attachment to them as you do. Your emotional attachment and inability to objectively analyze these players is pretty obvious when you say that Gaudreau is a top-3 winger in the game who has been improving every season.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Voted Karlsson

 

[Iggys Dome]

I’ve watched plenty of Gaudreau. He hasn’t been improving every year. This year is his best but this early stretch will end up being the best of his career. This is out of his norm. Statistics do remove some context for sure but more importantly, they remove bias from both sides, and make it clear that Gaudreau really hasn’t improved his game every year. This season is statistically “out of the norm”. His contribution to goals for and goals against is statistically “out of the norm”. You can say that every season has been the best of his career or whatever, but when we look at his statistical contribution to goals for and against, that is just flat out not true.

On top of that, just look into his underlying metrics. His shooting percentage is 5.7% higher than his career shooting percentage.

I don’t have a hard-on for hating the Flames, what I have is a tendency to laugh at how quickly HFBoards is willing to anoint certain teams and players as being legitimately elite after such a minuscule sample size that is in contrast with what they have done over a much larger one. On top of that, I find it especially funny to see them doing that when this team is elite at nothing except for except for drawing penalties and scoring short handed goals.

You want to bring up my biases as a guy who hates the Flames, but buddy, I think it’s time you take a look in the mirror. You spend a hell of a lot more time talking about the Flames than I do, you spend a hell of a lot more time posting about them, and I’m sure that you invest plenty of your money in them. Sure, I dislike them, but I don’t have anywhere near as much emotional attachment to them as you do. Your emotional attachment and inability to objectively analyze these players is pretty obvious when you say that Gaudreau is a top-3 winger in the game who has been improving every season.

Yeah, no you haven't. You've watched highlights and watched a few Sharks vs Flames games per year, pulled up some stats and are making points that otherwise you wouldn't make with such confidence. So you say statistics support the fact that Gaudreau hasn't improved every year, what are those metrics? Points? Point shares? Offensive metrics that don't take into context what he does away from the puck, and, y'know, don't involve actually watching Gaudreau game in and game out? I don't go out and say that Logan Couture peaked in 14-15 because he got a career high 67 points, mainly because: A) I generally don't watch Sharks games outside of ones that involve the Flames, and B) I'm not that naive. I know that he probably improved as an all around player as a centre because that comes with experience and age, and he'll probably get 70+ points this season.

Underlying metrics, I love that. Have you thought about the fact that it's possible Gaudreau worked on his shot in the off-season? That he is getting better looks because he has better linemates, is used on the PP in a competent manner (thanks for nothing, Dave Cameron) and is generally shooting more? He probably won't be a career 17.8% shooter, but I'd wager it'll be closer to that than the 10.6% he shot last year, given that he shot 14.4 his rookie year and 13.8 his sophomore year under Hartley (where he still scored 30 goals).

Also, no shit I talk about the Flames . I'm a Flames fan first, but I'm plenty objective about the Flames, years of mediocrity and disappointment has left me skeptical. This team has proved nothing yet, absolutely nothing. Until this team has a second Stanley Cup I won't go around parading my team as the best in every single facet. But when it comes to Johnny, it's clear as f***ing day this guy is something special. He finished 7th in scoring in his 2nd season, but yeah that was his peak right? Johnny Gaudreau has been legitimately elite for two or three seasons now. If you disagree with that, then you're in the minority. Feel free to go ahead and ask fans of any other team in the NHL, they'll tell you the same thing.

Edit: I should say that since 2013-2014 Gaudreau is 3rd in PPG by a winger, and 6th in points by a winger. He is six points behind Wheeler, Ovechkin and Benn, despite playing 11 less games than all 3. But yeah, not elite.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Yeah, no you haven't. You've watched highlights and watched a few Sharks vs Flames games per year, pulled up some stats and are making points that otherwise you wouldn't make with such confidence. So you say statistics support the fact that Gaudreau hasn't improved every year, what are those metrics? Points? Point shares? Offensive metrics that don't take into context what he does away from the puck, and, y'know, don't involve actually watching Gaudreau game in and game out? I don't go out and say that Logan Couture peaked in 14-15 because he got a career high 67 points, mainly because: A) I generally don't watch Sharks games outside of ones that involve the Flames, and B) I'm not that naive. I know that he probably improved as an all around player as a centre because that comes with experience and age, and he'll probably get 70+ points this season.

Underlying metrics, I love that. Have you thought about the fact that it's possible Gaudreau worked on his shot in the off-season? That he is getting better looks because he has better linemates, is used on the PP in a competent manner (thanks for nothing, Dave Cameron) and is generally shooting more? He probably won't be a career 17.8% shooter, but I'd wager it'll be closer to that than the 10.6% he shot last year, given that he shot 14.4 his rookie year and 13.8 his sophomore year under Hartley (where he still scored 30 goals).

Also, no **** I talk about the Flames . I'm a Flames fan first, but I'm plenty objective about the Flames, years of mediocrity and disappointment has left me skeptical. This team has proved nothing yet, absolutely nothing. Until this team has a second Stanley Cup I won't go around parading my team as the best in every single facet. But when it comes to Johnny, it's clear as ****ing day this guy is something special. He finished 7th in scoring in his 2nd season, but yeah that was his peak right? Johnny Gaudreau has been legitimately elite for two or three seasons now. If you disagree with that, then you're in the minority. Feel free to go ahead and ask fans of any other team in the NHL, they'll tell you the same thing.

Point shares are an offensive and defensive metric that say Gaudreau hasn’t improved from year to year.

I’ve watched plenty of Johnny Gaudreau. He hasn’t gone through a consistent trend of improvement from year to year. If he had, the numbers would reflect anything remotely close to that. They don’t.

Your bias is quite obvious and you’re nowhere near as objective as you think you are. If you don’t believe me, start a poll asking if this season could be described as “out of the norm” for Johnny Gaudreau, and if he is a top-3 winger in the game. The majority of fans will actually disagree with you. That won’t inherently prove that I’m correct in my assessments of him as a player, but it will prove that you are incorrect in what you think HF’s general assessment of him is.

 

[Iggys Dome]

Point shares are an offensive and defensive metric that say Gaudreau hasn’t improved from year to year.

I’ve watched plenty of Johnny Gaudreau. He hasn’t gone through a consistent trend of improvement from year to year. If he had, the numbers would reflect anything remotely close to that. They don’t.

Your bias is quite obvious and you’re nowhere near as objective as you think you are. If you don’t believe me, start a poll asking if this season could be described as “out of the norm” for Johnny Gaudreau, and if he is a top-3 winger in the game. The majority of fans will actually disagree with you. That won’t inherently prove that I’m correct in my assessments of him as a player, but it will prove that you are incorrect in what you think HF’s general assessment of him is.

I'm nowhere near that insecure about where he stands. If you feel that strongly about it, start a poll. I think you'll be surprised. I know that he has been discussed as a potential Hart trophy nominee by panelists, and is getting recognition by media across the nation (actually, he has been for a few years now).

Also, you keep bringing up "out of the norm" to emphasize your points. Was Erik Karlsson's 82 point season "out of the norm" at that point? Yeah, but he could hit 80 points again. Wording a poll that way to prove your point would be stupid, it makes more sense to ask if Johnny is a top 3 winger right now. I'll be the first to say he won't finish with 120 points this season, but he'll definitely finish with 90+. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a few more 90+ point seasons. That's not "out of the norm", unless you think "out of the norm" means improving.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm nowhere near that insecure about where he stands. If you feel that strongly about it, start a poll. I think you'll be surprised. I know that he has been discussed as a potential Hart trophy nominee by panelists, and is getting recognition by media across the nation (actually, he has been for a few years now).

Also, you keep bringing up "out of the norm" to emphasize your points. Was Erik Karlsson's 82 point season "out of the norm" at that point? Yeah, but he could hit 80 points again. Wording a poll that way to prove your point would be stupid, it makes more sense to ask if Johnny is a top 3 winger right now. I'll be the first to say he won't finish with 120 points this season, but he'll definitely finish with 90+. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a few more 90+ point seasons. That's not "out of the norm", unless you think "out of the norm" means improving.

If he finishes with 90-100 points, that’s not out of the norm. That’s a normal improvement by a 25 year old player in a league that has become higher scoring. Right now, he’s on pace for 120. Monahan, Tkachuk and Lindholm are on pace for like 90, and Giordano is on pace for 80. The norm for those guys is like 75, 60, 50, 45, and 45. In this higher scoring year, maybe bump those numbers up by ten. Still not close to the pace that they’re on and won’t sustain this season. Which is the point that I was trying to make.

Right now, Gaudreau is on pace for 122 adjusted points and 120 points. Compared to his prior career highs of 88 adjusted points and 84 points, that is out of the norm. Erik Karlsson, meanwhile, scored 82 points and 92 adjusted points with prior career highs of 78 and 86. So, no? No, they aren’t really comparable at all?

 

[CgyFlamesftw]

What’s comical is that almost every player for San Jose(except jones) is on pace to destroy their career highs. But let’s all focus on Calgary’s top 4 and specifically Gaudreau.

 

[Iggys Dome]

If he finishes with 90-100 points, that’s not out of the norm. That’s a normal improvement by a 25 year old player in a league that has become higher scoring. Right now, he’s on pace for 120. Monahan, Tkachuk and Lindholm are on pace for like 90, and Giordano is on pace for 80. The norm for those guys is like 75, 60, 50, 45, and 45. In this higher scoring year, maybe bump those numbers up by ten. Still not close to the pace that they’re on and won’t sustain this season. Which is the point that I was trying to make.

Right now, Gaudreau is on pace for 122 adjusted points and 120 points. Compared to his prior career highs of 88 adjusted points and 84 points, that is out of the norm. Erik Karlsson, meanwhile, scored 82 points and 92 adjusted points with prior career highs of 78 and 86. So, no? No, they aren’t really comparable at all?

Right, looks like I'm going to run in circles here. I think Gaudreau is NOT going to hit 120 points this year, I've stated that multiple times already. He's going to finish between 90-100, which I've also said multiple times, and which you've said isn't out of the norm. So what exactly are you arguing here? You keep bringing up 120 points like everyone thinks it's going to happen, it's not. He's having a great stretch, will come regress a bit, and will be a PPG player for the foreseeable future barring injuries. And as far as I'm concerned, is a top 3 winger in the game. We can agree to disagree there. As for this argument, there isn't much more to be said.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Right, looks like I'm going to run in circles here. I think Gaudreau is NOT going to hit 120 points this year, I've stated that multiple times already. He's going to finish between 90-100, which I've also said multiple times, and which you've said isn't out of the norm. So what exactly are you arguing here? You keep bringing up 120 points like everyone thinks it's going to happen, it's not. He's having a great stretch, will come regress a bit, and will be a PPG player for the foreseeable future barring injuries. And as far as I'm concerned, is a top 3 winger in the game. We can agree to disagree there. As for this argument, there isn't much more to be said.

So if Gaudreau only scores 24-34 points for the rest of the season, won’t it be a lot harder for Calgary to continue the rest of the season the way they’ve started? Same goes for Lindholm, Tkachuk, Monahan, and Giordano hitting more realistic totals. The team will go down along with them.

San Jose, meanwhile, doesn’t have any players who are on pace for complete aberrations from their career norms.

 

[Iggys Dome]

So if Gaudreau only scores 24-34 points for the rest of the season, won’t it be a lot harder for Calgary to continue the rest of the season the way they’ve started? Same goes for Lindholm, Tkachuk, Monahan, and Giordano hitting more realistic totals. The team will go down along with them.

San Jose, meanwhile, doesn’t have any players who are on pace for complete aberrations from their career norms.

Nah, we have depth. We have a points coming from D, we actually have a competent goaltender for once (Smith has cost us 6-8 points this season, by the way). We are winning games not just by out scoring teams, but grinding wins. That’s a hallmark of a good team.

I’ll let the results at the end of the season speak for themselves.

 

[CraigsList]

What’s comical is that almost every player for San Jose(except jones) is on pace to destroy their career highs. But let’s all focus on Calgary’s top 4 and specifically Gaudreau.

Ssh, let the points experts tell us that later. We’re still on the dirty ol’ scumbag Flames

 

[Rubi]

I knew that somebody would take issue with that.

Yes, the 25 year old with a career high of 88 adjusted points, who is currently on pace for 122 points, is playing out of his mind.

A guy, who knows a thing or two about playing hockey, believes that a 122 pt season should be the norm for Gaudreau.

 

[Haatley]

If he finishes with 90-100 points, that’s not out of the norm. That’s a normal improvement by a 25 year old player in a league that has become higher scoring. Right now, he’s on pace for 120. Monahan, Tkachuk and Lindholm are on pace for like 90, and Giordano is on pace for 80. The norm for those guys is like 75, 60, 50, 45, and 45. In this higher scoring year, maybe bump those numbers up by ten. Still not close to the pace that they’re on and won’t sustain this season. Which is the point that I was trying to make.

Right now, Gaudreau is on pace for 122 adjusted points and 120 points. Compared to his prior career highs of 88 adjusted points and 84 points, that is out of the norm. Erik Karlsson, meanwhile, scored 82 points and 92 adjusted points with prior career highs of 78 and 86. So, no? No, they aren’t really comparable at all?

Its almost like young players are improving. The world's gone crazy.

 

[wetcoast]

I think this would be a tight matchup that could go either way. I'd say Calgary in 7, but it really is likely to come down to which teams gets the bounces go their way.

Pretty much this.

San Jose is having a great season but Calgary seems like they are playing with destiny this season.

 

[53or8]

A guy, who knows a thing or two about playing hockey, believes that a 122 pt season should be the norm for Gaudreau.

The last person to get more than a 120 points was Joe Thornton and that was 14 years ago and he only got 125.

Yet Gaudreau should be the norm?

Are you Kelly Hrudey or did you hear this from Kelly Hrudey?

 

[Kybb79]

Shark fans are nervous the Flames might be better lol

 

[Rubi]

Shark fans are nervous the Flames might be better lol

No. Sharks fans are nervous because the Flames ARE better.

 

[WSS11]

I’d rather face Calgary than Vegas. It all depends on how you’re playing leading up to the playoffs anyway. To early to call, let’s see who does what at the TDL.

 

[GoGoSens]

I like the Sharks better just think t hey have better offensive talent.

Calgary has t he edge for depth on D, but I feel like the flames need some secondary scoring to make a deep run in there top 9.

I think Calgary has a better top line but I feel over all the sharks have more scoring depth, and Burns and Karlsson are just too good.

So yeah Sharks for me.

 

[CraigsList]

I’d rather face Calgary than Vegas. It all depends on how you’re playing leading up to the playoffs anyway. To early to call, let’s see who does what at the TDL.

FWIW I'd rather face Vegas than you guys. That is why I really want us to take the #1 seed. If it's us two in #2 and #3 seed, it's going to be a bloodbath. And, I don't want to see EK65 completely tear us up.