C/W Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Ässät, Liiga (2018, 3rd, MTL) Part II

[The Great Weal]

Not sure I'd be trotting out the guy who drafted Hayton at #5 as validation for Montreal reaching.

What about Jim Benning who has built a stellar pipeline? Or all the pro scouts McKenzie asked? I guess they are all nobodies and you know more than all of them.

 

[NotProkofievian]

What about Jim Benning who has built a stellar pipeline? Or all the pro scouts McKenzie asked? I guess they are all nobodies and you know more than all of them.

What did Benning say about Kotkaniemi?

 

[The Great Weal]

What did Benning say about Kotkaniemi?

He had him in the top 7. Same top 7 in different order.

 

[NotProkofievian]

He had him in the top 7. Same top 7 in different order.

Where is this order?

 

[The Great Weal]

Where is this order?

Order isn't out but he did say he had Hughes at 3.

 

[93LEAFS]

What about Jim Benning who has built a stellar pipeline? Or all the pro scouts McKenzie asked? I guess they are all nobodies and you know more than all of them.

I wouldn't use Benning as a go to for defending the pick. He has a good pipeline, but that tends to happen when you have 4 top 6 picks. Virtanen looks like a bad pick at 6, Juolevi isn't trending well, but its wait and see. Pettersson is looking like a good pick, Hughes was just drafted, and Boeser is a home-run at 22. He also wasn't steller in Boston or Buffalo (although he wasn't terrible either). Chayka, we don't really have much of a track record on, Tim Bernhardt (Coyotes head guy at this draft), has an average record (some good hits like Keller, Dvorak and Christian Fischer, a lot to be determined).Plus, if people valued McKenzie's scouts as gospel, the Habs should have taken Brady Tkachuk. Which, from what I've seen, would cause the Habs board to riot.

Now, it seems the league has gone heavy to drafting centers. It makes sense, forwards are safer to project than D, and centers hold high-value even if they only develop into 2nd line ones. I understand the logic behind picking Kotkaniemi, although that wouldn't have been my preferred pick that high. But, I do understand the desperation of the inability to find a franchise center, and going needs based on a guy who has a relatively safe projection to be a top 9 center at a minimum, with potentially 1st line upside (although, I would think his higher-end upside is closer to a 1b/2a guy, than a franchise cornerstone number 1). If I'm a Habs fan, I'm happy with the pick and optimistic about what he can become. Personally, without factoring in position, I liked Tkachuk, Dobson and Zadina more, and had him with the next grouping, but I wouldn't consider it an egregious reach. People should probably learn from how people freaked out over PLD at 3. To a smaller extent, there were people losing it over Pettersson over both Vilardi and Glass.

 

[The Great Weal]

I wouldn't use Benning as a go to for defending the pick. He has a good pipeline, but that tends to happen when you have 4 top 6 picks. Virtanen looks like a bad pick at 6, Juolevi isn't trending well, but its wait and see. Pettersson is looking like a good pick, Hughes was just drafted, and Boeser is a home-run at 22. He also wasn't steller in Boston or Buffalo (although he wasn't terrible either). Chayka, we don't really have much of a track record on, Tim Bernhardt (Coyotes head guy at this draft), has an average record (some good hits like Keller, Dvorak and Christian Fischer, a lot to be determined).Plus, if people valued McKenzie's scouts as gospel, the Habs should have taken Brady Tkachuk. Which, from what I've seen, would cause the Habs board to riot.

Now, it seems the league has gone heavy to drafting centers. It makes sense, forwards are safer to project than D, and centers hold high-value even if they only develop into 2nd line ones. I understand the logic behind picking Kotkaniemi, although that wouldn't have been my preferred pick that high. But, I do understand the desperation of the inability to find a franchise center, and going needs based on a guy who has a relatively safe projection to be a top 9 center at a minimum, with potentially 1st line upside (although, I would think his higher-end upside is closer to a 1b/2a guy, than a franchise cornerstone number 1). If I'm a Habs fan, I'm happy with the pick and optimistic about what he can become. Personally, without factoring in position, I liked Tkachuk, Dobson and Zadina more, and had him with the next grouping, but I wouldn't consider it an egregious reach. People should probably learn from how people freaked out over PLD at 3. To a smaller extent, there were people losing it over Pettersson over both Vilardi and Glass.

Ya I'll still take their words over many here. Nobody here said that we should go player by player from Mckenzies list(or at least I don't see any posts saying that). What I have seen people say many many times is that Bob had him at 5 and already claimed that he wouldn't be a reach at 3. However, many here claim that he is a reach, Habs went drafting by position, and could have traded down to pick him. I'll take the expert opinions over many here on whether or not it's a reach, and there is evidence that they couldn't have traded down to still guarantee Kotkaniemi.

I find it hard to make a projection for Kotkaniemi. He is still so damn young, he has not even showed us what he can do yet, but I agree that he could be a top 9 at minimum(I think better but way too early to tell right now). I personally had many people in that 3rd tier, and would have been happy with either of them. I also really liked Dobson(I was torn between him and Kot for a bit), but I had Kotkaniemi over Tkachuk and Zadina even before the draft. I remember when Scheifele was considered a reach, and he kept falling on his ass after every shift. I think it worked out ok for him. PLD didn't impress that much in his d+1 year, and he is looking real good.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I wouldn't use Benning as a go to for defending the pick. He has a good pipeline, but that tends to happen when you have 4 top 6 picks. Virtanen looks like a bad pick at 6, Juolevi isn't trending well, but its wait and see. Pettersson is looking like a good pick, Hughes was just drafted, and Boeser is a home-run at 22. He also wasn't steller in Boston or Buffalo (although he wasn't terrible either). Chayka, we don't really have much of a track record on, Tim Bernhardt (Coyotes head guy at this draft), has an average record (some good hits like Keller, Dvorak and Christian Fischer, a lot to be determined).Plus, if people valued McKenzie's scouts as gospel, the Habs should have taken Brady Tkachuk. Which, from what I've seen, would cause the Habs board to riot.

I think they changed their head scout after 2014. The results have been markedly better since. He's also added Dahlén for Burrows, which doesn't get counted in his drafting but is a substantial add to their pipeline.

Now, it seems the league has gone heavy to drafting centers. It makes sense, forwards are safer to project than D, and centers hold high-value even if they only develop into 2nd line ones. I understand the logic behind picking Kotkaniemi, although that wouldn't have been my preferred pick that high. But, I do understand the desperation of the inability to find a franchise center, and going needs based on a guy who has a relatively safe projection to be a top 9 center at a minimum, with potentially 1st line upside (although, I would think his higher-end upside is closer to a 1b/2a guy, than a franchise cornerstone number 1). If I'm a Habs fan, I'm happy with the pick and optimistic about what he can become. Personally, without factoring in position, I liked Tkachuk, Dobson and Zadina more, and had him with the next grouping, but I wouldn't consider it an egregious reach. People should probably learn from how people freaked out over PLD at 3. To a smaller extent, there were people losing it over Pettersson over both Vilardi and Glass.

It seems like the Montreal Canadiens made a shift towards drafting ''most valuable asset'' from ''best player available'' at the 2017 draft. That was the first time in a decade that I heard Timmins use the term ''asset value.'' And this is what I've been calling for for a long time. ''BPA'' is a backwards logic that ignores the fundamental reality that there is no currency in the NHL: it's a barter system. You can't go to the center store and trade in X number of goalie tokens to get your elusive #1C. It thus behooves one to try to trade water in the desert, instead of ice in the arctic.

Now, if only Montreal could divorce themselves of this silly idea that sum total NHL games played is a good way of evaluating draft performance, we might really be getting somewhere.

 

[93LEAFS]

Ya I'll still take their words over many here. Nobody here said that we should go player by player from Mckenzies list(or at least I don't see any posts saying that). What I have seen people say many many times is that Bob had him at 5 and already claimed that he wouldn't be a reach at 3. However, many here claim that he is a reach, Habs went drafting by position, and could have traded down to pick him. I'll take the expert opinions over many here on whether or not it's a reach, and there is evidence that they couldn't have traded down to still guarantee Kotkaniemi.

I find it hard to make a projection for Kotkaniemi. He is still so damn young, he has not even showed us what he can do yet, but I agree that he could be a top 9 at minimum(I think better but way too early to tell right now). I personally had many people in that 3rd tier, and would have been happy with either of them. I also really liked Dobson(I was torn between him and Kot for a bit), but I had Kotkaniemi over Tkachuk and Zadina even before the draft. I remember when Scheifele was considered a reach, and he kept falling on his ass after every shift. I think it worked out ok for him. PLD didn't impress that much in his d+1 year, and he is looking real good.

Its hit and miss both ways, you can find examples of good reaches (Scheifele) and bad ones (Hickey), and good examples of drafting fallers (Fowler) and bad ones (A. Esposito).

I do think a significant part of his stock rising was due to the center potential. But, that is also believed to be a contributing factor in PLD over Puljujarvi, and that worked out. Now, whether factoring in positional importance into BPA pushed him up to the 3rd best on the Habs board, or they just drafted the best center on their board is impossible to know (same applies to Hayton). It is clear centers have more value than almost any other position in the draft, primarily due to how the position drives 5v5 play, the fact elite ones are rarely drafted outside the top 10 (which is pretty much the only way to acquire franchise #1 C's), and how they are easier to project over defenders and especially goalies. Studies have shown that a center who produces at the exact same rate as a winger, is 5% more valuable (pretty sure Pronman mentions this in an old ESPN insider article, I forgot who did the original study).

Outside of the extreme possibilities which could happen but are unlikely (say we playout his career 100 times, maybe in 3 of those scenario's he's a bust who goes back to Finland or is injury prone, and in maybe 1 he becomes a Hart trophy winner), he should bottom out as an effective top 9 player, and likely a top 9 center. I'd say the more realistic aspects of his upside are a 1b/2a center or a high-end number 2. Now, there's still a sizable chance he becomes a legit franchise center you can built around (I'd say there are around 15 to 20 or those centers, and maybe 12 who are clear cornerstone guys you build a contender around).

 

[93LEAFS]

I think they changed their head scout after 2014. The results have been markedly better since. He's also added Dahlén for Burrows, which doesn't get counted in his drafting but is a substantial add to their pipeline.



It seems like the Montreal Canadiens made a shift towards drafting ''most valuable asset'' from ''best player available'' at the 2017 draft. That was the first time in a decade that I heard Timmins use the term ''asset value.'' And this is what I've been calling for for a long time. ''BPA'' is a backwards logic that ignores the fundamental reality that there is no currency in the NHL: it's a barter system. You can't go to the center store and trade in X number of goalie tokens to get your elusive #1C. It thus behooves one to try to trade water in the desert, instead of ice in the arctic.

Now, if only Montreal could divorce themselves of this silly idea that sum total NHL games played is a good way of evaluating draft performance, we might really be getting somewhere.

They've flucuated. But, I do think Delorme still ran that draft for Virtanen, and now it appears Judd Bracket runs things.

I completely get the asset value perspective. While, the NHL is nowhere as extreme as this, the NFL defines this logic in the need to get a QB at all costs, where a QB graded out might be the 20th best player but is a logical pick in the top 5 to a team that doesn't have a franchise QB. Although, there are a few dynamics unique to each draft and sport that doesn't make this an apple to apple comparison, but there are still elements in both that hold true. Unless you are talking about maybe the 5 to 10 absolute best wingers in the game, scoring wingers don't have a very high value reflected in what Jeff Skinner got today, what the Leafs got for Kessel (although there were a couple other things that drove his value down), etc.

 

[Icebreakers]

Order isn't out but he did say he had Hughes at 3.

Where did you see that?

 

[NotProkofievian]

I completely get the asset value perspective. While, the NHL is nowhere as extreme as this, the NFL defines this logic in the need to get a QB at all costs, where a QB graded out might be the 20th best player but is a logical pick in the top 5 to a team that doesn't have a franchise QB. Although, there are a few dynamics unique to each draft and sport that doesn't make this an apple to apple comparison, but there are still elements in both that hold true. Unless you are talking about maybe the 5 to 10 absolute best wingers in the game, scoring wingers don't have a very high value reflected in what Jeff Skinner got today, what the Leafs got for Kessel (although there were a couple other things that drove his value down), etc.

This is essentially it. The BPA argument has always been that you can just trade for whatever you want later. Well, no you can't for two reasons. As you outline here, position discounts the exchange value of your player from his labour value. Carey Price might actually be worth as much as a 1C to the Montreal Canadiens, but he's not worth that on the market. The second thing is that if you draft someone and they go on to be amazing, the plan should be to keep them. You've already won, there's no sense risking it all in another move. Your moves should be made such that, if you're right, you actually solve your problem: not so that you have to do another move to solve your problem. For this reason you'll try to move from further down your surplus depth chart to address your need, and good luck getting someone's top player at a more valuable position for that.

Even now with Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Olofsson, Hillis, Evans, and Vejdemo I'm not convinced our 20 year issue is solved. But it, for once, looks like it has a chance of being solved, and is certainly moving in the right direction.

 

[montreal]

Even now with Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Olofsson, Hillis, Evans, and Vejdemo I'm not convinced our 20 year issue is solved. But it, for once, looks like it has a chance of being solved, and is certainly moving in the right direction.

I wouldn't look at it as solved vs a chance of being solved, just that it's much better then it was but if we want to be a contender down the road, having someone like ,

Hughes or Lafreniere
Kotkaniemi
Poehling
Olofsson

that would put us in a great position down the road. But still missing top D prospects and we'd have to hope Primeau is the real deal or Price gets back to form and stays that way for most of his 8 year deal.

 

[93LEAFS]

I wouldn't look at it as solved vs a chance of being solved, just that it's much better then it was but if we want to be a contender down the road, having someone like ,

Hughes or Lafreniere
Kotkaniemi
Poehling
Olofsson
that would put us in a great position down the road. But still missing top D prospects and we'd have to hope Primeau is the real deal or Price gets back to form and stays that way for most of his 8 year deal.

Assuming that list is a potential center chart, I thought I'd point out Lafreniere is a pure LWer. Its highly unlikely he ends up at center. There is a bunch of good centers in 2019. There is no proven elite center for 2020, as there isn't really a late-birthday CHLer (Lafreniere) or proven Euro (Raymond and Holtz) that have excelled at a high level that they can be pointed to for that draft. You have hope with a guy like Byfield, Vierling or Hendrix Lapierre. But, one they haven't proven anything above AAA hockey, and two, a bunch of guys who are centers in travel hockey get moved to the wing long-term. Now, we'll have a better understanding of this around January when you've seen the guys currently entering the CHL or USHL play at a challenging level.

 

[newfy]

Lol... That guy just drafted and graduated Keller, Chychrun, Dvorak, Perlini, Fischer, and Strome in just the last couple years. He's for all intents and purposes been excellent at drafting. Insinuating he lacks hockey knowledge because you don't personally agree with a pick shows a severe lack of foresight and understanding of the draft.

You cant really say hes been excellent at drafting when hes drafted high the entire time and managed one impact player. I bet you almost every team has a list that impressive in the time frame and most of them would have it without high enough picks to even have a shot at drafting Keller or Strome.

I think it shows lack of understanding the draft to claim a GM is excellent at drafting when all he has is a bunch of young kids that havent done anything noteworthy in the league yet (excluding Keller).

I dont think the Habs plan is a bad one though in taking Kotkaniemi. They have a serious lack of center depth and a goalie locked up for long enough, thats good enough to get hot and completely ruin their chances at a top 5 pick. I think the Habs roster is pretty bad but Price is good enough to steal games when healthy. Theres a couple guys that went behind him that I would have likely taken before Kotkaniemi but the habs might not get a shot at a high end center for a while.

The only scary thing about him is that no one had him close to 3 until he played in the u18s, because for the ful season leading up to that point he had played essentially 0 games as a centerman. I hope thats enough time to evaluate a guys play at that position because there is a possibility that over a full season he doesnt look as great down the middle.

 

[From The Couch]

You cant really say hes been excellent at drafting when hes drafted high the entire time and managed one impact player. I bet you almost every team has a list that impressive in the time frame and most of them would have it without high enough picks to even have a shot at drafting Keller or Strome.

I think it shows lack of understanding the draft to claim a GM is excellent at drafting when all he has is a bunch of young kids that havent done anything noteworthy in the league yet (excluding Keller).

I dont think the Habs plan is a bad one though in taking Kotkaniemi. They have a serious lack of center depth and a goalie locked up for long enough, thats good enough to get hot and completely ruin their chances at a top 5 pick. I think the Habs roster is pretty bad but Price is good enough to steal games when healthy. Theres a couple guys that went behind him that I would have likely taken before Kotkaniemi but the habs might not get a shot at a high end center for a while.

The only scary thing about him is that no one had him close to 3 until he played in the u18s, because for the ful season leading up to that point he had played essentially 0 games as a centerman. I hope thats enough time to evaluate a guys play at that position because there is a possibility that over a full season he doesnt look as great down the middle.

I agree with you. As per Kotkaniemi I believe scouts saw him play center in the u18 tournament and saw he is good enough to play center against the highest skill at his age level. I also hope they think he has a high enough hockey IQ to play center at the higher level. If he can work on his skating, which is very plausible I think he'll transition to a good Top 2 center in the NHL. This is all speculation but for me it makes sense that the Habs scouting staff saw enough in his center ability at the u18s and believe he is a smart enough hockey player to play the position at the higher level.

I do agree with you also that I would've liked to have seen the habs draft a couple other players before him at #3 but c'est la vie.

 

[singlesliceofcheese]

Assuming that list is a potential center chart, I thought I'd point out Lafreniere is a pure LWer. Its highly unlikely he ends up at center. There is a bunch of good centers in 2019. There is no proven elite center for 2020, as there isn't really a late-birthday CHLer (Lafreniere) or proven Euro (Raymond and Holtz) that have excelled at a high level that they can be pointed to for that draft. You have hope with a guy like Byfield, Vierling or Hendrix Lapierre. But, one they haven't proven anything above AAA hockey, and two, a bunch of guys who are centers in travel hockey get moved to the wing long-term. Now, we'll have a better understanding of this around January when you've seen the guys currently entering the CHL or USHL play at a challenging level.

I think Byfield has a good chance of reaching that "elite centre" category.

 

[JohnLennon]

You cant really say hes been excellent at drafting when hes drafted high the entire time and managed one impact player. I bet you almost every team has a list that impressive in the time frame and most of them would have it without high enough picks to even have a shot at drafting Keller or Strome.

I think it shows lack of understanding the draft to claim a GM is excellent at drafting when all he has is a bunch of young kids that havent done anything noteworthy in the league yet (excluding Keller).

I dont think the Habs plan is a bad one though in taking Kotkaniemi. They have a serious lack of center depth and a goalie locked up for long enough, thats good enough to get hot and completely ruin their chances at a top 5 pick. I think the Habs roster is pretty bad but Price is good enough to steal games when healthy. Theres a couple guys that went behind him that I would have likely taken before Kotkaniemi but the habs might not get a shot at a high end center for a while.

The only scary thing about him is that no one had him close to 3 until he played in the u18s, because for the ful season leading up to that point he had played essentially 0 games as a centerman. I hope thats enough time to evaluate a guys play at that position because there is a possibility that over a full season he doesnt look as great down the middle.

But that's exactly why the list I showed you is worthy of the praise I just gave him. Let me refresh that list:

Strome: 3rd overall
Keller: 7th overall
Perlini: 12th overall
Chychrun: 16th overall
Fischer: 32nd overall
Dvorak: 58th overall

Apart from Strome and Keller, none of those picks are particularly high. 2 early first rounders, 2 middle first rounders, and 2 second round picks. That's two top 9 F/top 4 D per draft, three drafts in a row. And those are just the players that have established themselves as top 9 F/top 4 D on Arizona that have already made the NHL since that 2014 draft... they've still got guys like Merkley (30th overall), Joseph (23rd overall), Capobianco (63rd overall), Hill (76th overall), etc.

Now, I'll concede that the team wasn't very good to begin with, so their roles in the top 9 might not apply if they were on elite teams, but those were their roles this year and the forwards by and large produced about a half point per game, most of them with barely, if any, prior NHL experience under their belts. Pretty impressive in my opinion. I challenge you to find a team with better results, especially in the NHL, since the 2014 draft and with worse picks. The only teams that really seem to compare are the likes of Toronto, where they got three consecutive 8th overall picks or higher, including 3rd overall and first overall... and even then they have still not graduated as many NHL players as Arizona since 2014 (yet - though both teams have guys in the pipeline). You singled out Keller and Strome and ignored the rest of the players, who were picked in very non-exciting spots.

I think it is very short-sighted to chalk up a team's draft successes to "they got a bunch of high picks" when if you look a little deeper, a lot of these impact players were taken out of the top 10, or even outside the first round in general.

As for Kotkaniemi, his U18 performance certainly boosted his value, but we still have to acknowledge the facthe was a 17 year old kid playing in a men's league as a winger all year, then proceeded to dominate at center in the U18s and then also performed in the U20s as well. By the end, most teams had him in their top 5 or near it, according to what we hear from McKenzie and some NHL scouts/GMs, and if we believe the dialogue that there wasn't much separating pics 3-6 in terms of potential, fulfilling a need seems to have made sense from this point in time. Especially considering he was almost a year younger than guys like Zadina and Tkachuk, but playing in a higher-level league than either of them.

 

[newfy]

But that's exactly why the list I showed you is worthy of the praise I just gave him. Let me refresh that list:

Strome: 3rd overall
Keller: 7th overall
Perlini: 12th overall
Chychrun: 16th overall
Fischer: 32nd overall
Dvorak: 58th overall

Apart from Strome and Keller, none of those picks are particularly high. 2 early first rounders, 2 middle first rounders, and 2 second round picks. That's two top 9 F/top 4 D per draft, three drafts in a row. And those are just the players that have established themselves as top 9 F/top 4 D on Arizona that have already made the NHL since that 2014 draft... they've still got guys like Merkley (30th overall), Joseph (23rd overall), Capobianco (63rd overall), Hill (76th overall), etc.

Now, I'll concede that the team wasn't very good to begin with, so their roles in the top 9 might not apply if they were on elite teams, but those were their roles this year and the forwards by and large produced about a half point per game, most of them with barely, if any, prior NHL experience under their belts. Pretty impressive in my opinion. I challenge you to find a team with better results, especially in the NHL, since the 2014 draft and with worse picks. The only teams that really seem to compare are the likes of Toronto, where they got three consecutive 8th overall picks or higher, including 3rd overall and first overall... and even then they have still not graduated as many NHL players as Arizona since 2014 (yet - though both teams have guys in the pipeline). You singled out Keller and Strome and ignored the rest of the players, who were picked in very non-exciting spots.

I think it is very short-sighted to chalk up a team's draft successes to "they got a bunch of high picks" when if you look a little deeper, a lot of these impact players were taken out of the top 10, or even outside the first round in general.

As for Kotkaniemi, his U18 performance certainly boosted his value, but we still have to acknowledge the facthe was a 17 year old kid playing in a men's league as a winger all year, then proceeded to dominate at center in the U18s and then also performed in the U20s as well. By the end, most teams had him in their top 5 or near it, according to what we hear from McKenzie and some NHL scouts/GMs, and if we believe the dialogue that there wasn't much separating pics 3-6 in terms of potential, fulfilling a need seems to have made sense from this point in time. Especially considering he was almost a year younger than guys like Zadina and Tkachuk, but playing in a higher-level league than either of them.

None of those players are anything special right now except Keller, who at 7th overall wasnt exactly some amazing pick. Right now it looks like Strome could've been bad at 3 overall compared to how guys are playing that were drafted after him. To me it looks more like a list of guys who are going to maybe be alright NHL players but are getting an early debut because of how bad the team is.

Chychrun is playing in the NHL but watching him play doesnt make me feel terrible that Detroit traded that pick for him. And outside of Dvorak who was still a second rounder, they are al basically first round picks in that time. Its more ane xample of a bad team letting their high picks play and see what they get. I just think you and I have a huge difference in the definition of an impact player. Youre calling guys top 9 forwards/top 4 D who have career high seasons of around 30 points at most.

Could they be great players and make up a cup winning core? I guess and maybe Chayka will be looked at as a great drafter but none of those guys have done anything to make me really praise his drafting. That Perlini pick looks OK but in the next 10 picks I would rather have Larkin, Tuch, Schmaltz, Sanheim, Fabbri or Kapanen with guys like Pastrnak also going later in that first round. Strome looks like hes doing alright in the AHL but for 3rd overall in that draft thats not really good enough when you have Marner putting up a couple top line seasons already, 3 guys playing like top 3 dmen, if not top 2 dmen, another guy drafted outside the top 10 just put up an 84 point season. Literally the next 7 players picked after him look better with another 3 or 4 players after those 7 looking like theyre trending to be better players as well.

I bet if you looked at most teams drafting in that same time frame, a lot of the prospects might not have made the NHL yet because theyre on better teams, but their future outlooks are just as promising with lower picks. Strome is kinda the wild card, hes got a lot of really good players drafted after him that he better hope he has a good career or else that pick will look bad

 

[JohnLennon]

None of those players are anything special right now except Keller, who at 7th overall wasnt exactly some amazing pick. Right now it looks like Strome could've been bad at 3 overall compared to how guys are playing that were drafted after him. To me it looks more like a list of guys who are going to maybe be alright NHL players but are getting an early debut because of how bad the team is.

Chychrun is playing in the NHL but watching him play doesnt make me feel terrible that Detroit traded that pick for him. And outside of Dvorak who was still a second rounder, they are al basically first round picks in that time. Its more ane xample of a bad team letting their high picks play and see what they get. I just think you and I have a huge difference in the definition of an impact player. Youre calling guys top 9 forwards/top 4 D who have career high seasons of around 30 points at most.

Could they be great players and make up a cup winning core? I guess and maybe Chayka will be looked at as a great drafter but none of those guys have done anything to make me really praise his drafting. That Perlini pick looks OK but in the next 10 picks I would rather have Larkin, Tuch, Schmaltz, Sanheim, Fabbri or Kapanen with guys like Pastrnak also going later in that first round. Strome looks like hes doing alright in the AHL but for 3rd overall in that draft thats not really good enough when you have Marner putting up a couple top line seasons already, 3 guys playing like top 3 dmen, if not top 2 dmen, another guy drafted outside the top 10 just put up an 84 point season. Literally the next 7 players picked after him look better with another 3 or 4 players after those 7 looking like theyre trending to be better players as well.

I bet if you looked at most teams drafting in that same time frame, a lot of the prospects might not have made the NHL yet because theyre on better teams, but their future outlooks are just as promising with lower picks. Strome is kinda the wild card, hes got a lot of really good players drafted after him that he better hope he has a good career or else that pick will look bad

Your opinion is that the Coyotes rushed these prospects because their team was bad. What of Dylan Strome, then? If they wanted to rush their players because their team was so bad, why be patient with arguably their most high-end prospect? Your theory does not add up. It makes more sense to credit these players based on the merit of their play, and not retreat to another excuse being the Coyotes mediocrity (like you did in making the false claim that the Coyotes only had good prospects due to high picks). The fact that the forwards listed (aside from Keller and Strome, who were either still developing or a Calder candidate) all had 30-40 point seasons in their rookie/sophomore seasons is impressive, especially considering where some were drafted. You criticise Strome for taking longer to develop, and focus on him as a point of criticism (yet he hasn't played a season in the league yet) and conveniently ignore Keller, who on the flip-side, would probably go AHEAD of some of the guys drafted ahead of him, what few there are. It's just grasping at straws. There are many players ahead of Chychrun, Dvorak

So again, your criticisms that Chayka's results are good right now only based on drafting high and rushing players is false, and until proven otherwise, I think it's fair to say he has been good at drafting thus far.

Bringing it back to the original discussion, the whole reason for the debate on Chayka was because a certain poster criticised Chayka's hockey knowledge based solely on the Hayton pick, barely a couple months after draft day. My argument is that it was unfair to label him as incompetent based on a pick he just made, as his history suggests otherwise, and considering he as GM of the Coyotes, along with the Habs and Sens (Sens also being a good drafting team) passed on Zadina, it's concerning that Zadina was passed over by some competent drafting organizations. It is certainly noteworthy and somewhat concerning that the three most desperate teams for offence passed on the best offensive player remaining after Svechnikov. Curious to know why that is, though at least for the Habs and Sens, I don't mind their picks at all right now. But definitely curious to see how the Hayton pick turns out, as that certainly shocked me too.

 

[newfy]

Your opinion is that the Coyotes rushed these prospects because their team was bad. What of Dylan Strome, then? If they wanted to rush their players because their team was so bad, why be patient with arguably their most high-end prospect? Your theory does not add up. It makes more sense to credit these players based on the merit of their play, and not retreat to another excuse being the Coyotes mediocrity (like you did in making the false claim that the Coyotes only had good prospects due to high picks). The fact that the forwards listed (aside from Keller and Strome, who were either still developing or a Calder candidate) all had 30-40 point seasons in their rookie/sophomore seasons is impressive, especially considering where some were drafted. You criticise Strome for taking longer to develop, and focus on him as a point of criticism (yet he hasn't played a season in the league yet) and conveniently ignore Keller, who on the flip-side, would probably go AHEAD of some of the guys drafted ahead of him, what few there are. It's just grasping at straws.

So again, your criticisms that Chayka's results are good right now only based on drafting high and rushing players is false, and until proven otherwise, I think it's fair to say he has been good at drafting thus far.

Bringing it back to the original discussion, the whole reason for the debate on Chayka was because a certain poster criticised Chayka's hockey knowledge based solely on the Hayton pick, barely a couple months after draft day. My argument is that it was unfair to label him as incompetent based on a pick he just made, as his history suggests otherwise, and considering he as GM of the Coyotes, along with the Habs and Sens (Sens also being a good drafting team) passed on Zadina, it's concerning that Zadina dropped three spots. It is certainly noteworthy and somewhat concerning that the three most desperate teams for offence passed on the best offensive player remaining after Svechnikov. Curious to know why that is, though at least for the Habs and Sens, I don't mind their picks at all right now. But definitely curious to see how the Hayton pick turns out, as that certainly shocked me too.

Strome is a guy that didnt get rushed for whatever reason, probably that his skating is pretty bad and its holding him back. When the guys that were drafted after him were in the NHL the next season or 2 playing huge minutes and being successful thats a bad pick. I'm sure theyre holding out hopes for him because like you said hes their high end guy and not throwing him into the NHL might help him instead of having a Turris situation again or something.

However the rest of the guys you listed are just very meh players. Every team has drafted a Dvorak or Ficsher or Perlini the last couple of drafts. Those guys dont look like theyre on pace to do anything special in the NHL. So for people to call Chayka a terrific drafter when none of his high picks except for one look like a legit impact player right now doesnt make sense. Hes got some young guys playing in the league on ELCs that are doing ok at best when compared to guys drafted around them. Hes not Nashville pulling top 3 dmen out of rounds 2-7 consistently or anything like that. So when people use him as an authority because hes a terrific drafter I just dont agree.

If you look at random teams who have drafted later on average, most have very similar young guys in the line up with maybe the exception of a guy of Keller's quality but they also mostly dont have a couple top 7 picks either. We obviously just see these young guys differently. Keller will be a stud and thats looking lke thats it out of some high picks. I'm not going to say Strome is a bust, but even if he becomes a number one center I dont really think thats a tough pick. If they picked one of the other 7 guys they would have a number one dman or a high end offensive talent like Marner

 

[JohnLennon]

Strome is a guy that didnt get rushed for whatever reason, probably that his skating is pretty bad and its holding him back. When the guys that were drafted after him were in the NHL the next season or 2 playing huge minutes and being successful thats a bad pick. I'm sure theyre holding out hopes for him because like you said hes their high end guy and not throwing him into the NHL might help him instead of having a Turris situation again or something.

However the rest of the guys you listed are just very meh players. Every team has drafted a Dvorak or Ficsher or Perlini the last couple of drafts. Those guys dont look like theyre on pace to do anything special in the NHL. So for people to call Chayka a terrific drafter when none of his high picks except for one look like a legit impact player right now doesnt make sense. Hes got some young guys playing in the league on ELCs that are doing ok at best when compared to guys drafted around them. Hes not Nashville pulling top 3 dmen out of rounds 2-7 consistently or anything like that. So when people use him as an authority because hes a terrific drafter I just dont agree.

If you look at random teams who have drafted later on average, most have very similar young guys in the line up with maybe the exception of a guy of Keller's quality but they also mostly dont have a couple top 7 picks either. We obviously just see these young guys differently. Keller will be a stud and thats looking lke thats it out of some high picks. I'm not going to say Strome is a bust, but even if he becomes a number one center I dont really think thats a tough pick. If they picked one of the other 7 guys they would have a number one dman or a high end offensive talent like Marner

You keep saying Chayka's drafting over the past years isn't special, you keep saying there are tons of teams that have the same or better results with picks that aren't as high as Arizona's, you keep saying some teams have equivalent players from later rounds consistently, but haven't pointed out even one team with as many NHL graduates as Chayka has since 2014. And even if there is only one team, or a handful, Chayka is still among a handful of GMs who graduated so many players who were able to make real impacts in the NHL so quickly, and that still puts him in good company.

As an aside, you keep referring to Chychrun, Perlini, Dvorak, and Fischer all as "meh" prospects. That's your opinion, but it doesn't make it a fact as you seem to present it. All these players are 22 years old and under, all the forwards have broken the 30-40 point mark already (on an offensively starved team), and Chychrun already averages 20 minutes a game at 20 years old, despite dealing with injury and his young age. Your insinuation that all these 20-21-22 year olds are "meh", that they have all already achieved their ceilings, or that what they've accomplished at the NHL at their age isn't impressive, either means you haven't been paying attention to their development as prospects and understand they do all still have potential, or you just ignore that fact that they are young and on the upswing. Either way, tossing them collectively aside as "meh" is downright unfair, and I can guarantee you at least some of them will continue their progression.

 

[newfy]

You keep saying Chayka's drafting over the past years isn't special, you keep saying there are tons of teams that have the same or better results with picks that aren't as high as Arizona's, you keep saying some teams have equivalent players from later rounds consistently, but haven't pointed out even one team with as many NHL graduates as Chayka has since 2014. And even if there is only one team, or a handful, Chayka is still among a handful of GMs who graduated so many players who were able to make real impacts in the NHL so quickly, and that still puts him in good company.

As an aside, you keep referring to Chychrun, Perlini, Dvorak, and Fischer all as "meh" prospects. That's your opinion, but it doesn't make it a fact as you seem to present it. All these players are 22 years old and under, all the forwards have broken the 30-40 point mark already (on an offensively starved team), and Chychrun already averages 20 minutes a game at 20 years old, despite dealing with injury and his young age. Your insinuation that all these 20-21-22 year olds are "meh", that they have all already achieved their ceilings, or that what they've accomplished at the NHL at their age isn't impressive, either means you haven't been paying attention to their development as prospects and understand they do all still have potential, or you just ignore that fact that they are young and on the upswing. Either way, tossing them collectively aside as "meh" is downright unfair, and I can guarantee you at least some of them will continue their progression.

Keller is the only one that has broke 40 points out of a group of first rounders, including a third overall. Chychrun as a dman made the NHL young on a team that had no D and has not been impressive. He likely has reached close to his ceiling and thats part of the reason why he slipped so far in the draft. Hes playing bottom pairing minutes on a bad team, hes not horrible but hes not the next Doughty like he was projected to be 3 years ago.

Starting this season, since 2014, Buffalo will have graduated about the same number of guys with similar picks. Detroit likely the same with lower picks in 2014 and 2015 still, go back a year and theyll have graduated more of players similar quality. Nashville is comparable while drafting much lower. Winnipeg is about even with them as well, much further ahead if you count 2013 etc.

Those are all teams comparable, maybe one player off one way or the other

 

[JohnLennon]

Keller is the only one that has broke 40 points out of a group of first rounders, including a third overall. Chychrun as a dman made the NHL young on a team that had no D and has not been impressive. He likely has reached close to his ceiling and thats part of the reason why he slipped so far in the draft. Hes playing bottom pairing minutes on a bad team, hes not horrible but hes not the next Doughty like he was projected to be 3 years ago.

Starting this season, since 2014, Buffalo will have graduated about the same number of guys with similar picks. Detroit likely the same with lower picks in 2014 and 2015 still, go back a year and theyll have graduated more of players similar quality. Nashville is comparable while drafting much lower. Winnipeg is about even with them as well, much further ahead if you count 2013 etc.

Those are all teams comparable, maybe one player off one way or the other

Claiming a 20-year old defenseman drafted two years ago and without having played one full, healthy season yet has reached his ceiling after his sophomore year... That's absolutely ridiculous and there's no sugar coating it. I respectfully, yet strongly, disagree with your entire analysis of the Coyotes drafting and their prospects/players. I think most would agree there's no justifying your position that these 20-21-22 year old kids have already reached their ceiling, and that reflects a lack of knowledge of drafting and development.

As for comparing Arizona to Buffalo, well, Buffalo has only graduated two prospects in the last 4 years to the NHL. Not even close to Arizona. I'm guessing you saying "this season" means you predict Mittelstadt, Dahlin, and maybe Nylander to get promoted. That's reasonable. 5 players to Arizona's 6, it's close. But saying they had "similar picks"? Really? Come on! Buffalo had THREE top two NHL draft picks, and two top 8 picks! It's not even close. I'm shocked you chose Buffalo as a comparison, considering you mentioned the excuse that Arizona had the luxury of consistent early draft picks as a reason for their successful drafting, when in reality, that is the case for Buffalo and it has been for a long time, much more so than Arizona.

As for Detroit, they've only promoted Larkin since 2014. Also not even really close. Even going back a year, add Mantha and Bertuzzi for Detroit, then you're adding Domi to Arizona. As for the Preds, only Arvi, Fiala and Girard since 2014. It's still not close.

Face it, there are no teams that come close to the Coyotes in promoting solid NHL players to the league since 2014, at least not with comparable picks (Buffalo with six consecutive years drafting in the top 8 overall certainly doesn't compare). And claiming the likes of Chychrun have reached their ceiling is absolutely beyond absurd. There has been no reason to doubt the Coyotes' draft pedigree thus far. They've done a great job drafting and developing their players to reach the NHL, especially recently.

 

[Mrb1p]

Keller is the only one that has broke 40 points out of a group of first rounders, including a third overall. Chychrun as a dman made the NHL young on a team that had no D and has not been impressive. He likely has reached close to his ceiling and thats part of the reason why he slipped so far in the draft. Hes playing bottom pairing minutes on a bad team, hes not horrible but hes not the next Doughty like he was projected to be 3 years ago.

Starting this season, since 2014, Buffalo will have graduated about the same number of guys with similar picks. Detroit likely the same with lower picks in 2014 and 2015 still, go back a year and theyll have graduated more of players similar quality. Nashville is comparable while drafting much lower. Winnipeg is about even with them as well, much further ahead if you count 2013 etc.

Those are all teams comparable, maybe one player off one way or the other

That's bs... Chychrun has reached his ceiling as a 20 year old? Come on...