C/W Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Ässät, Liiga (2018, 3rd, MTL) Part II

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93LEAFS

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Outside of truly elite talents (McDavid, maybe Matthews, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos, and Eichel), no players floor is a 2nd line center. Now, the probability of his becoming something less valuable than a 2nd line center (without significant injuries) is probably something like 15-20%. A more realistic floor in a middle 6 winger, and even then, there is always a slight chance a player completely busts, we just saw 1OA player end up not getting a qualifying offer 5 years after being drafted. Players floors are commonly overvalued around here (and in the media at large), similarly, what theit ceiling is, is undervalued. I'd say a reasonable outcome to expect is a 1b/2a center. I'd say RNH was a notably better prospect than Kotkaniemi, and he's basically #2 center, now, Scheifele was probably a worse prospect, but is a bonafide franchise center you can build around. Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, and Dylan Strome were on par or slightly better, one is a 3rd line LWer, another is top 6 winger and the last is 3 years after his draft and isn't an established NHLer. Zacha is another reasonable example. Now, I don't mean to just list the bad examples, there are guys who overachieve. But, I do think suggesting any players floor at a 2nd line center is a bit extreme unless they are clearly among the very top tier of prospects. Now, to be optimistic, the odds of him being just a complimentary 3rd line winger, is probably similar to the odds of him becoming a top 5 center in the league.
 
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Killerjas

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His ceiling is in my book a 2nd line center. He was picked too high in the draft though and I have no doubt people will still bring this up 10 years later.
 

schnapshot

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His ceiling is in my book a 2nd line center. He was picked too high in the draft though and I have no doubt people will still bring this up 10 years later.
Right now he definitely shows more potential and tools than all the other centers picked in the first, so I guess the others have 3rd/4th line center floors?
 

Killerjas

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Right now he definitely shows more potential and tools than all the other centers picked in the first, so I guess the others have 3rd/4th line center floors?

Are you talking about Hayton & Dellandrea? I don't see Hayton being a 2nd rounder, likewise for Dellandrea, more like a 3rd rounder.
 

DramaticGloveSave

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The thing with Kotkaniemi is that he's incredibly young, and still has things to improve on. He also has some take it to the bank qualities. I think he's going to be a playmaking top 6 C, but there's a huge range there. Could be a Kopitar/Barkov while he also could be more of a Berglund (who had some 2C seasons).
 
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1972

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The thing with Kotkaniemi is that he's incredibly young, and still has things to improve on. He also has some take it to the bank qualities. I think he's going to be a playmaking top 6 C, but there's a huge range there. Could be a Kopitar/Barkov while he also could be more of a Berglund (who had some 2C seasons).

Probably falls somewhere in the middle of those guys.
 

KevSkillz4

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No doubt, isn't a 3rd line center. He got amazing hockey IQ, great passing ability, great shot, he is good at defensive play (not good like Barkov, but he can be a dominant two-way player in the future). He got everything to be at least top 6 center. It's too early to say he is going to be top 15-30 center in the future. But we don't know with him, he got amazing potential and he can be a elite player if he develop every aspect of his game.

He got all tools at 18 years old (17 years old just few weeks ago), add more muscle and work more on his skating ability (he can skate, but he can be better).

Hockey IQ is very important and Kotkaniemi got a elite hockey IQ, not doubt about that. He looks like a confident person in interview, great attitude and looks like he got a great work ethic.

Kotkaniemi is a stud in my mind. He is not Barkov, but one day, we don't know... he can be close (we can dream), it's gonna be difficult yeah i know, but he got tremendous potential.

Looks Mark Scheifele at his draft... projection say he is going to be draft at top 20. He got drafted at #7, now he is a amazing center. Kotkaniemi can be a amazing center, maybe not like a Scheifele level, but we never know with potential.

So in my mind, it's guaranted he is going to be at least #2 center in the future (like Bob McKenzie said) and it's very great news for Montreal Canadiens.
 

DramaticGloveSave

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Probably falls somewhere in the middle of those guys.
I'd say that's the safe bet, but he certainly has the potential to reach those top guys if he develops well given that he really just needs to work on his skating and strength both which should improve over the next few years as he grows into his frame.
 

KevSkillz4

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No doubt, he is the best choice at 3. I will not be surprising if in 5 years we ranking him ahead Andrei Svechnikov (And i'm big fan of Svechnikov ^^). The potential of Kotkaniemi is tremendous and i'm very happy to have him with my team.

Montreal got great center prospect pool with Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Olofsson, Hillis, McShane, Ikonen, Evans and more.
 

Michoulicious

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No doubt, he is the best choice at 3. I will not be surprising if in 5 years we ranking him ahead Andrei Svechnikov (And i'm big fan of Svechnikov ^^). The potential of Kotkaniemi is tremendous and i'm very happy to have him with my team.

Montreal got great center prospect pool with Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Olofsson, Hillis, McShane, Ikonen, Evans and more.

I might be wrong, but I would not be suprised if one or two of Kotkaniemi, Hugues, Tkachuk, Boqvist or Zadina end up having more impactful careers than Svechnikov. That top end of the draft was strong, and I don't think there is as much separation between picks #2 and 7 as people seem to think.
 

Deficient Mode

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maybe Barkov light but for now he's pretty far from Barkov who killed it at 17 in liiga, he had 2 less assists then Kotka had points.



no one can guarantee that though.

It was already discussed here before, but he wasn't that far behind Barkov at ES scoring. Barkov had 21 power play points while Kotkaniemi had 4. Difference in non-PP points/game was 0.51 to 0.44. And Barkov may have played significantly more time per game at ES too. That certainly shrinks the gap a fair amount.
 
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1972

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No doubt, he is the best choice at 3. I will not be surprising if in 5 years we ranking him ahead Andrei Svechnikov (And i'm big fan of Svechnikov ^^). The potential of Kotkaniemi is tremendous and i'm very happy to have him with my team.

Montreal got great center prospect pool with Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Olofsson, Hillis, McShane, Ikonen, Evans and more.

It won't be surprising if Noah Dobson, Quinn Hughes or really ends up the second best player of this draft. After usually the top one or two guys it's anyone's guess. Kotkaniemi could be the second best player in this draft or the 12th 5 years from now, who knows really.
 

montreal

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It was already discussed here before, but he wasn't that far behind Barkov at ES scoring. Barkov had 21 power play points while Kotkaniemi had 4. Difference in non-PP points/game was 0.51 to 0.44. And Barkov may have played significantly more time per game at ES too. That certainly shrinks the gap a fair amount.

But there's still a major difference in production. I know that Barkov was on a higher scoring team, as that year they had 5 guys with 35 or more points while Kotkaniemi's team had just 1. And from what I understand Kotka had a bad knee injury the previous year that he was not at 100% skating wise, as his skating looks a good bit better at the end of the year then it did at the start. But still think the hope would be more of a Barkov light.
 

Mrb1p

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It was already discussed here before, but he wasn't that far behind Barkov at ES scoring. Barkov had 21 power play points while Kotkaniemi had 4. Difference in non-PP points/game was 0.51 to 0.44. And Barkov may have played significantly more time per game at ES too. That certainly shrinks the gap a fair amount.
Barkov is inctedibly good, its setting us up for disappointment. With that said, youre right, plus Kotkaniemi was a rookie and on a worst team, and his PP production was horrible. Theres a chance, but a lot has to go right.
 

BB88

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maybe Barkov light but for now he's pretty far from Barkov who killed it at 17 in liiga, he had 2 less assists then Kotka had points.



no one can guarantee that though.

To be fair even Laine doesn't compete with Barkovs Liiga regular season.
Barkov didn't get the attention he should have gotten because he was a victim of years of garbage development by Finland.
 

Deficient Mode

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Barkov is inctedibly good, its setting us up for disappointment. With that said, youre right, plus Kotkaniemi was a rookie and on a worst team, and his PP production was horrible. Theres a chance, but a lot has to go right.

He won't be as good as Barkov but I think the disparity lies elsewhere: Kotka's defensive game is solid but it's a couple steps below Barkov's at best. The gap in production though is pretty small when you adjust for playing time and PP usage (and presumably linemate quality).
 

ookhaab

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I might be wrong, but I would not be suprised if one or two of Kotkaniemi, Hugues, Tkachuk, Boqvist or Zadina end up having more impactful careers than Svechnikov. That top end of the draft was strong, and I don't think there is as much separation between picks #2 and 7 as people seem to think.

The reason people say Svechnikov is above others because he is the best russian prospect since malkin and would have gone 1st overall most drafts.

The gap was large.
 

Filthy Dangles

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But there's still a major difference in production. I know that Barkov was on a higher scoring team, as that year they had 5 guys with 35 or more points while Kotkaniemi's team had just 1. And from what I understand Kotka had a bad knee injury the previous year that he was not at 100% skating wise, as his skating looks a good bit better at the end of the year then it did at the start. But still think the hope would be more of a Barkov light.

With 20 more points in fewer games, the biggest factor is simply Barkov was/is a better talent.
 

Filthy Dangles

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Thats most likely true. At the same age Barkov is just better, but that doesnt mean hes a bad talent, it just means Barkov is excellent.

Of course i think he's gonna be very good, to the people capping him as a 2nd line center is just dumb. Barkov and Kopitar are Hall-of-Fame level talents so those comparisons and projections aren't really fair to JK right now either.
 
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