C Jack Hughes - USNTDP (2019 Draft) Part III

[Artorius Horus T]

Is it concerning his points/game hasn't improved over last season?

Actually, his last season was better what this season.

 

[93LEAFS]

Tavares goals/game went up quite a bit though.

And it may have mattered for tavares, as he went from being a potential generational player to being a potential star player.

Tavares best goal season was his 16-year-old season. The big thing with Tavares was he really rounded out his game (there was fear he would have to move to the wing) in his last 2 seasons.

I do think people who expected Hughes to make a sizable jump this year production wise were being unreasonable. There are certain barriers that are very tough to break, and I don't think he was going to significantly outproduce Eichel and Matthews despite having a better 16 year old season. Finally, we aren't privy to time on-ice stats. Having watched both the 2000's and the 2001's, the 2001's are way less reliant on one line. Due to this, I wouldn't be shocked if Hughes is getting less ice-time this year. Last year the USNTDP heavily relied on the Farabee-Hughes-Wahlstrom line, as no other line was a serious scoring threat, especially when Wise was out. With Turcotte back, the USNTDP has 2 or 3 pretty strong lines to roll. I felt a significant reason Hughes had such a great 16-year-old season, was that he was promoted pretty much directly to the 1st line of the u-18's on a one-line team. That is very uncommon. When Matthews was bumped up for example, it was to play on a team that already had Eichel and Dylan Larkin. Hughes was competing with Jake Wise (who was injured when Hughes was promoted) and Johnny Gruden.

People who overly focused on stats entered the year too high on Hughes not realizing the context of his role, and likewise are too low on him now due to the perceived lack of progression without examing the context of his roles.

 

[rt]

I like to watch him play. He’s an entertaining player. His ability to take the offensive zone with possession reminds me of Scott Gomez in his first couple of years in the NHL.

 

[Hokinaittii]

Quite surprising how little hype there seems to be for Hughes considering he is a NA prospect playing in NA who has been projected #1 for years now. Does people not follow him or what's up?

It would nice to see some highlights/gifs from him.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Is it concerning his points/game hasn't improved over last season?

Sure, for stat watchers who haven't seen him play. Amazingly though, he has maintained his #1 position with professional scouting services despite all of the hand wringing over supposed "stagnation" by the masses here at HF Boards. The hills some people die on....lol.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Quite surprising how little hype there seems to be for Hughes considering he is a NA prospect playing in NA who has been projected #1 for years now. Does people not follow him or what's up?

It would nice to see some highlights/gifs from him.

I think a lot of posters got burned out by the Blade Paradigm campaign.

 

[rt]

Quite surprising how little hype there seems to be for Hughes considering he is a NA prospect playing in NA who has been projected #1 for years now. Does people not follow him or what's up?

It would nice to see some highlights/gifs from him.

He’s got a slight build with a smaller frame and is physically weak. He’s also got a very high-flying amateur hockey quality to his game. I think these factors make people nervous.

I think the NHL is continuing to move in a direction that will benefit players like Hughes and the timing is right to discount some concerns with a player like Hughes.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

He’s got a slight build with a smaller frame and is physically weak. He’s also got a very high-flying amateur hockey quality to his game. I think these factors make people nervous.

I think the NHL is continuing to move in a direction that will benefit players like Hughes and the timing is right to discount some concerns with a player like Hughes.

I think this is fair. The talent is undeniable but I think he'll have an adjustment period, at least at center.

 

[S E P H]

I felt a significant reason Hughes had such a great 16-year-old season, was that he was promoted pretty much directly to the 1st line of the u-18's on a one-line team. That is very uncommon. When Matthews was bumped up for example, it was to play on a team that already had Eichel and Dylan Larkin. Hughes was competing with Jake Wise (who was injured when Hughes was promoted) and Johnny Gruden.

That's a good point, however, Hughes was up for the challenge and preformed so well that coaches left him there. Additionally, perhaps the USNTDP saw how special Jack was with the U17 team and decided to try him with the U18? That would explain how truly talented he is and why he will go down as the best player ever the USNTDP*.

* = I haven't chequed in a while, but I believe only Matthews had the highest PPG at the USNTDP and Hughes was either second or in the top 3.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Is it concerning his points/game hasn't improved over last season?

How many games did he play against college teams last year?

 

[EXTRAS]

How many games did he play against college teams last year?

I don't know.

This was a legitimate question and everyone seems to have taken it as an attack.

 

[TCNorthstars]

I don't know.

This was a legitimate question and everyone seems to have taken it as an attack.

I am not taking it as attack. I really don't know the answer to how many he played, but it may account for a partial stagnation because he is no longer playing strictly against kids.

 

[bigdog16]

I don't know.

This was a legitimate question and everyone seems to have taken it as an attack.

He played 5 games vs NCAA teams last year and had 5 points. 3 games vs D1 teams and 2 games vs D3 teams

 

[AmericanDream]

I would imagine Jack Hughes will get invited to play for the US at the World Championships and it will be fun centering one of his idols and future NHL teammate in Patrick Kane....I think he will do just fine in that role!

 

[93LEAFS]

I would imagine Jack Hughes will get invited to play for the US at the World Championships and it will be fun centering one of his idols and future NHL teammate in Patrick Kane....I think he will do just fine in that role!

USNTDP is entirely focused on winning the U-18's. He'll be at that. He'd be the first U-18 USNTDP guy to get an invite.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I would imagine Jack Hughes will get invited to play for the US at the World Championships and it will be fun centering one of his idols and future NHL teammate in Patrick Kane....I think he will do just fine in that role!

I hope they are both there, I would be kind of surprised if Kane went in back to back years. It would be wonderful though if we started to get more guys coming when available, I am hopeful Larkin will be there though I am not sure how banged up he is at this point. I am not sure how far the JJ stuff goes, I hope it is a lasting impact and I think he deserves that as a part of his legacy, but I am also cautious that it will actually happen.

It would be pretty fascinating if they pulled him up to the big squad. He has already dominated a U-18...

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This guys honestly never had anything good to say about Hughes and trolls as a Kaakko fan boy. Just ignore him. He has an agenda

Hughes is the best prospect in this draft. And nobody argues that besides a few posters here. All of whom are apparently better scouts than the ones professional team employ

Didn't all the professionals say that Patrick and Hischier were the best players in the 2017 draft? Some fans thought Pettersson was.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Didn't all the professionals say that Patrick and Hischier were the best players in the 2017 draft? Some fans thought Pettersson was.

Fair point. It’s certainly possible Turcotte ends up the best player from this draft....

 

[LoveHateLeafs]

Some people are focusing on Hughes' USHL numbers this year(and ignoring his NCAA numbers) and claiming that they indicate a regression. One thing you have to remember with USNTDP players is that they don't actually play that many games in the USHL. Jack played 27 USHL games last year, and if he plays all of the remaining ones on the U18 team's schedule, he'll play 25 this year. Most high-level non-USNTDP USHL players play 50-60 games per season. This small sample size can mean that if a Team USA player has an abnormally high(or low) shooting percentage during his USHL games, it can really skew his goal-scoring numbers, and since his USHL season is short, his shooting percentage may not fall back down to earth the way it tends to do over an 82-game NHL season(see Mikko Rantanen this year). The shooting percentage of a player's teammates can also affect assist numbers.

For example, in their last year in the program, Jack Eichel and Auston Matthews had shooting percentages of 21% and 20% respectively, numbers which are unsustainably high by NHL standards. Last year Hughes had a shooting percentage of 23%. This year his shooting percentage in the USHL is just 7.5%. Did Hughes somehow forget how to shoot over the summer or is he just unlucky?

Jack's lifetime USHL shooting percentage is 15.9%. What if that were his shooting percentage in both seasons? Then his USHL numbers would be(after rounding down to the nearest goal in both seasons):

2017-18: 27gp 14g 33a 47pts for 1.74 points/game

2018-19 16gp 12g 20a 32pts for 2.00 points per game

Parts of Hughes's lower shooting percentage may be the result of a conscious effort on his part to shoot more. Last year he took 3.33 shots/game in the USHL and this year he's taking 5. He could be shooting this year in situations where he would have passed in 2017-18 and hoping for more goals even if his shooting percentage is lower. But I think you have to consider the fact that a combination of extremely good luck last year followed by a run of extremely bad luck this year could be skewing his scoring numbers due to the small sample size. Given that no one who actually watched Hughes last year seems to think he's any worse this season, I'll bet on that.

 

[93LEAFS]

Fair point. It’s certaibly possible Turcotte ends up the best player from this draft....

I mean, the odds of the 1st overall pick being the best player in a single draft class is less than 50/50. In pretty much any scenario I'd take the field. Just looking at recent drafts where the guys have played more than a season. Even top 2 vs the field would be close.

2017: Pettersson is in the lead
2016: Matthews has held firm
2015: McDavid has held firm
2014: Pastrnak or Draisaitl
2013: MacKinnon, but it is not like he kept pole position the entire time
2012: Definitely not Yakupov. Pretty debatable for next with guys like Rielly, Lindholm, etc
2011: Definitely not RNH. It's Kucherov, but Scheifele and Gaudreau have been huge
2010: It's between Hall and Seguin.
2009: Between JT and Hedman
2008: Probably Karlsson, but the top 2 are in the discussion
2007: Kane held
2006: Between Toews and Giroux
2005: Crosby

Outside of a McDavid/Crosby type prospect, it's probably best to take the field against the top 2. It's close. Obviously, with the more recent picks, it is expected the high picks will make the earliest impact, for example, Matthews holds the lead (and I hope he maintains it), but RNH held a similar lead in his first 3 years only to get passed.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

It’s hard to improve on his numbers last year since they were so amazing. A big part of those numbers last year was him finding chemistry with Wahlstrom. He’s still having a great year and will be a star in the league. He is on pace for 120 points if he were to play 62 games for the program this year. That’s is wild and shouldn’t be forgotten. He has really high upside and I’m pumped to see how he progresses (unless of course Philly wins the draft lottery. Then I hope he is a bust)

 

[Panthaz89]

Didn't all the professionals say that Patrick and Hischier were the best players in the 2017 draft? Some fans thought Pettersson was.

there is more to a career than a just a rookie season.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Didn't all the professionals say that Patrick and Hischier were the best players in the 2017 draft? Some fans thought Pettersson was.

Both the Wings and Vancouver had him top 2

 

[bigdog16]

Didn't all the professionals say that Patrick and Hischier were the best players in the 2017 draft? Some fans thought Pettersson was.

At the time of the draft Patrick and Hischier were better players than Pettersson, there wasn't too much debate there. The debate was how high Pettersson's ceiling really was and if he could hit it. He obviously ended up hitting it. But its tough for lottery teams to take a shot on a kid that has a high ceiling over someone who is a sure thing, something Pettersson wasn't at the time. But this draft isn't comparable to that. Hughes is not only the better player, he has the higher ceiling too

 

[EdJovanovski]

Actually, his last season was better what this season.

What