How many of the pro-rebuild posters would still prefer to rebuild IF we could make trades for Marner and Eichel? I'd really like to know.
It occurred to me that we had the assets for it so I went through a similar exercise a couple days ago.
Jones + Domi
for
Marner + Holl
CBJ 1st 2021 + CBJ 1st 2022 + Laine + Korpisalo + Jenner
for
Eichel + Borgen
(In this scenario Buffalo has already found a team to give them a pick for Laine).
Would you do these deals?
Are they realistic?
Would you sign Hamilton to a $9m x 7, if these other deals were done?
Marner - Eichel - Atkinson
Texier - Granlund - Bjorkstrand
Nyquist - Roslovic - Bemstrom
Robinson - Dunne - Foudy
Stenlund
Gavrikov - Hamilton
Werenski - Holl
Lehtonen - Borgen
Kukan
Elvis
Kiv
How good is this team? I don't need to wait to hear your answer, I won't listen to anything other than "good". That's a great D & G with an elite top line, two good mid six lines and a blazing 4th line.
If you're curious about the financials - Before signing Granlund and Hamilton, there was $15m left over. So if not them then we can certainly overpay for somebody. Granlund or whoever would have to be a player taking a 1 year deal though. Elvis will need a ~$2m raise the following year, Werenski about a $3m raise, and Roslovic about a $2-3m raise. Nyquist might also have to be moved out a year early, depending on how much the RFAs need.
I also worked through some long term planning - it did seem like a lot to commit $30m to Marner, Eichel, and Hamilton. How would we keep any depth? The answer is that mid level contracts like Atkinson and Nyquist eventually get squeezed out. And we bet on our prospects, which I'm actually comfortable with. We don't have blue chip elite prospects, but with Marner and Eichel and Werenski and Hamilton, you don't need those. You just need good complementary prospects, which we have a bounty of. I'd be willing to bet on the majority of Chinakhov, Marchenko, Voronkov, Angle, Foudy, Holm, Dunne, Bemstrom, Foudy, Texier, and Peeke to be able to make some kind of contribution. We're not going to be short of players that can skate next to Marner or skate next to Eichel. We might even have a few options pull through.
The long term contracts I'd insist on keeping are:
Marner $11m
Eichel $10m
Bjorkstrand $5.5m
Roslovic $4.5m
Hamilton $9m
Werenski $8m
Gavrikov $4m
Elvis $6m
So it's a clear preference for me to load up like this rather than blow it up. If it turns out that we can't get these kind of prices then I'd have to think about whether it would be worth it, but at these prices, I'm all in.
So overall I like it. I'd drop Borgen out of the deal and then let Buffalo have their choice of only one 1st round pick of ours (my guess is they'd take the sure-fire [and sooner] top-5 pick, but maybe they'd want an extra Wright lottery ticket). We'd probably have to add someone else to make up for it, maybe one of Foudy/Bem/Tex/Voronkov or a 2nd rounder, but I'd think I'd rather do that and keep the first round pick they don't want (either a top-5 pick for us or insurance if we have an awful year next year, depending on which they choose).
If Buffalo can flip Laine to LA for the #8 or something (which I could see LA being willing to do) that's two top-8 picks for Buffalo, plus another nice piece (any of those aforementioned young guys) plus potentially a mid-long-term answer at goalie if they can get him re-signed, plus a good locker room guy (even if Jenner isn't there for the long haul, having a guy like him would be good for a young team in a questionable culture). That seems fair for a disgruntled player with for all intents and purposes a public trade request and a potentially scary injury, even as good as Eichel is.
Could maybe also do without Holm and Domi in the Jones-Marner deal, keep Domi as a 2/3C (with Roz as the other 2/3C, potentially Tex as well) and not have to worry about signing Granlund and can roll with Werenski, Hamilton, Gavrikov, Peeke, Lehtonen, Kukan, MDZ, Harrington and/or maybe a bottom pair FA signing.
The problem is you're relying on all those things to hit. If one or two don't then it hurts things. I'm not going to say it's disastrous to have any of Hamilton or Marner or Eichel signed for 4+ years, but it puts you in a bit of a limbo if you only get one rather than if you either have all 3 (or at least 2) of them or plan for a "conventional" rebuild.
You bring up Hamilton a lot. Do you have any indication he'd want to sign here? I haven't seen anything of the sort. (I'm including it for this hypothetical. Would love if something like that were true, I've just heard nothing of the sort.)
ETA: Looking over that roster, I think I'd want to try to re-sign Foligno, if you're going to give up Jenner. That's a lot of grit/sandpaper out the door in a short time (Foligno, Anderson, Savard, Dubois, Dubinsky, Jenner...). I tend to think it's overrated to be honest, but you need some, and looking over that lineup, I'm honestly not sure if we'd have
any. Maybe Dunne? Sort of Robinson/Foudy, I guess, but not really?
