Confirmed Trade: [BUF/CHI] Alex Nylander for Henri Jokiharju

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BB88

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I kind of like this trade for Chicago. Nylander is young and has improved every year since he was drafted. Jokiharju is tough to give up but despite his strong showing in the NHL at just 19, I think his career role may be something along the lines of a strong 3/4. I don't consider it a sure thing that he's going to end up a franchise type defenseman. He has a long ways to go and the list of NHL defenders that debuted at 19 but didn't take that huge leap to high end player in the league is very large. Nylander obviously could end up even worse if he plateaus as an AHL scorer.

It's a gamble, but I think Chicago is hoping that the same environment that had Dylan Strome break out in a big way does the same for Nylander. There's an argument that Buffalo isn't doing the best job developing young scoring forwards, other than a phenom talent in Eichel. Ultimately, I think the trade boils down to Chicago selling high on Joki and buying low on a player who was probably considered more talented as a teenager. The age difference isn't massive either, just ~15 months.

I just really have an issue with that Strome comparison.

When on Earth has Nylander been as dominant as Strome has been?
& 2nd) his development post draft has been minimal& disappointing for expectations.
 

ijuka

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Rational take instead of
OMG WTF are you doing Stan???
That's not a rational take at all, it's very rosy. Again strome, who has nothing to do with Nylander, and who always has been far more impressive than Nylander at every single level. Again assuming Jokiharju doesn't have much of an upside despite playing in NHL at 19. Saying Nylander's improved every season when his improvement has been far, far slower than expected. Players tend to improve, they rarely go backwards at 20. Yawn.
 

NuxFan09

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I'm confused by this trade from Chicago's point of view. They had a sick stable of young defensemen brewing and it's not like Nylander is anything to write home about. Weird...
 
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Kaners Bald Spot

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That's not a rational take at all, it's very rosy. Again strome, who has nothing to do with Nylander, and who always has been far more impressive than Nylander at every single level. Again assuming Jokiharju doesn't have much of an upside despite playing in NHL at 19. Saying Nylander's improved every season when his improvement has been far, far slower than expected. Players tend to improve, they rarely go backwards at 20. Yawn.
Expect anything more than a middle pairing D out of Jokiharju and you'll be disappointed. There are some players that are more physically developed at a younger age. Jokiharju is one of those guys. Imagine he is 25 when you watch him play instead of 20. Then evaluate him. He's peaking younger. It just happens. NHL history is littered with players that looked like stars at 20 and were out of the NHL by 29.
 

Kaako Kappo

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Expect anything more than a middle pairing D out of Jokiharju and you'll be disappointed. There are some players that are more physically developed at a younger age. Jokiharju is one of those guys. Imagine he is 25 when you watch him play instead of 20. Then evaluate him.
Stupidest thing I've read on HFBoards in....well, in like 24 hours but still pretty stupid.

Did you skip biology in school?
 

Cubs2024WSChamps

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I kind of like this trade for Chicago. Nylander is young and has improved every year since he was drafted. Jokiharju is tough to give up but despite his strong showing in the NHL at just 19, I think his career role may be something along the lines of a strong 3/4. I don't consider it a sure thing that he's going to end up a franchise type defenseman. He has a long ways to go and the list of NHL defenders that debuted at 19 but didn't take that huge leap to high end player in the league is very large. Nylander obviously could end up even worse if he plateaus as an AHL scorer.

It's a gamble, but I think Chicago is hoping that the same environment that had Dylan Strome break out in a big way does the same for Nylander. There's an argument that Buffalo isn't doing the best job developing young scoring forwards, other than a phenom talent in Eichel. Ultimately, I think the trade boils down to Chicago selling high on Joki and buying low on a player who was probably considered more talented as a teenager. The age difference isn't massive either, just ~15 months.
If people think Joker is a franchise level defenseman, they will be rudely awakened.

Joker is going there be Robin the Dahlins Batman (lol, OK then) and be damn good as a second in line star.

Think Seabrook to Keith. Not in play style, of course, but impact.
 

Kaners Bald Spot

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Stupidest thing I've read on HFBoards in....well, in like 24 hours but still pretty stupid.

Did you skip biology in school?
No. People are different, and athletes are a subset. It is no different than that guy who was taller than everyone else in 8th grade and ended up being below average in height by HS graduation.
 

Kaako Kappo

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No. People are different, and athletes are a subset. It is no different than that guy who was taller than everyone else in 7th grade and ended up being below average in height by HS graduation.
People are different. That doesn't change the fact that men hit their physical peak in mid-late 20's and that the brain develops until 25 years of age. If you think that Henri Jokiharju has peaked after 38 games in the NHL at the age of 19, then I do not know what to tell you. Whatever helps you sleep at night I suppose.
 

ColdSteel2

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I'm confused by this trade from Chicago's point of view. They had a sick stable of young defensemen brewing and it's not like Nylander is anything to write home about. Weird...

Yeah, I don’t get it either. They were rebuilding and it was going great. Now they just brought in 3 injury prone players on 3 year deals the year before Debrincat and Strome are RFAs and traded Jokiharju for a struggling offensive wing.

upload_2019-7-10_17-59-42.gif
 

ijuka

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Expect anything more than a middle pairing D out of Jokiharju and you'll be disappointed. There are some players that are more physically developed at a younger age. Jokiharju is one of those guys. Imagine he is 25 when you watch him play instead of 20. Then evaluate him. He's peaking younger. It just happens.
Do you even understand that learning the ins and outs of being a defenseman takes a long time in NHL and even the top defensive prospects tend to develop well into their twenties, heck many of them have peaked closer to 30? This is such an uninformed opinion I hope no one else shares it.

"physical development", dear lord.
 

Kaners Bald Spot

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People are different. That doesn't change the fact that men hit their physical peak in mid-late 20 and that the brain develops until 25 years of age. If you think that Henri Jokiharju has peaked after 38 games in the NHL, then I do not know what to tell you. Whatever helps you sleep at night I suppose.
That, sir is a bell curve that is is the average.
and if you actually do research, the athletic peak of men is getting younger.
NHL forwards peak at 24 and D at 27.

There are literally studies that show that male athletes physically peak in their early 20s. There are late bloomers and early ones as well, but here we are.
I have no arguments about people's brains not fully developing until 25. Any enhanced performance after age 25 or so is due to your brain catching up to the rest of your body, or learning how to get the most out of your talent.
 

Kaners Bald Spot

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Do you even understand that learning the ins and outs of being a defenseman takes a long time in NHL and even the top defensive prospects tend to develop well into their twenties, heck many of them have peaked closer to 30? This is such an uninformed opinion I hope no one else shares it.
This isn't my opinion, it is the opinion of the Blackhawks scouts. It was reported by the best insider have that a source said that they think there is very little room for growth in his game. He's a jack of all trades and a master of none. They believe they have 3-4 D in the system that are already better.
 

ijuka

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This isn't my opinion, it is the opinion of the Blackhawks scouts. It was reported by the best insider have that a source said that they think there is very little room for growth in his game. He's a jack of all trades and a master of none. They believe they have 3-4 D in the system that are already better.
No wonder they've been making such bad trades.

BTW, even if he's physically developed at 20 it's IMO ridiculous to say that he's fully developed as a defenseman because of how long it takes for defensemen to even enter the league in the first place.

My take is that's a false info spin they're feeding in order to get gullible fans such as yourself to eat it up so they don't experience enormous backlash for making an atrocious trade.
 
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Kaners Bald Spot

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No wonder they've been making such bad trades.

BTW, even if he's physically developed at 20 it's IMO ridiculous to say that he's fully developed as a defenseman because of how long it takes for defensemen to even enter the league in the first place.
Have you ever heard of outliers?
That whole thing is a bell curve. Do you know anything about statistics?
There is a subset that peak younger and another that peak later.

Patrick Kane is an outlier. He's peaking in his late 20s and early 30s. He had one 80 point season before 2015-16.
 

Kaako Kappo

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This isn't my opinion, it is the opinion of the Blackhawks scouts. It was reported by the best insider have that a source said that they think there is very little room for growth in his game. He's a jack of all trades and a master of none. They believe they have 3-4 D in the system that are already better.
Can you give me the source to these reports?
 

ijuka

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May 14, 2016
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Have you ever heard of outliers?
That whole thing is a bell curve. Do you know anything about statistics?
There is a subset that peak younger and another that peak later.
Patrick Kane is an outlier. He's peaking in his late 20s and early 30s.
I know about statistics. Apparently more than you do?

You're predicting Jokiharju is a complete outlier in that he'll stop developing 10 years before most defensemen do. And I don't give a rat's ass about physical development, so stop bringing that up. I mean as a player.
 
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Kaners Bald Spot

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I know about statistics. Apparently more than you do?

You're predicting Jokiharju is a complete outlier in that he'll stop developing 10 years before most defensemen do. And I don't give a rat's ass about physical development, so stop bringing that up. I mean as a player.
That is what they think, yes.
 

BB88

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Jan 19, 2015
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This isn't my opinion, it is the opinion of the Blackhawks scouts. It was reported by the best insider have that a source said that they think there is very little room for growth in his game. He's a jack of all trades and a master of none. They believe they have 3-4 D in the system that are already better.

That's by a team that traded voluntarely for Maatta.

Should have just kept developing him and trade him for someone better, much better.
 
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Kaners Bald Spot

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That's what they say they think*

But I see you're a sheep who can't think with their own brain so I'm wasting my time.
No, I don't think that either. Do you want me to go quote myself earlier in the thread so that you can see what I had to say? Go read the thread in the Hawks forum. Kneejerk reaction is that it was an awful move. After thinking about it more, I think HF is severely overvaluing Jokiharju.

I still don't think it was a great trade, and I think they should have received a safer prospect in return, but I didn't have a problem with them trading Jokiharju because I actually agree with them that they have 3-4 better D prospects. I think that the 95th percentile outcome is that Jokiharju is a 2D, but that is his ceiling. He's a safe bet to be no worse than a #5 and probably settles in at a #3 or #4.

They're trying to balance playing the long game and the short game right now. They're also more willing than most to take chances on pure skill and talent.

They were 6 deep with legit D prospects with NHL top 4 potential so they can afford to make this kind of gamble. More will be traded. Out of 9 picks in the 1st and 2nd round since 2016 they used 6 of them on D. The only Forwards they took in that time were Dach, DeBrincat and Kayumov.

Do I think this trade is tilted toward Buffalo at the moment? Absolutely. But I don't think this is as one-sided as everyone thinks. It all depends on how Nylander responds to ye olde kick in the arse. There is a chance that it does end up one-sided though. If Boqvist, Mitchell, Beaudin and Vlasic are as good as the Hawks think they are, it really doesn't matter though.

Jokiharju is an excellent bet to be a middle pairing D. Nylander is like Deal or No Deal where you have either $500K or a $0.01 and you already turned down the bank's offer.
 
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Space umpire

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Why not just like....Keep Kahun & Jokiharju? Now you have A. Nylander & Maatta instead....
Jokiharju was terrible in his own end. There were several changes made when Q was let go one of which was to get Joker off the 1st pairing. The problem with that was nobody else on last years back line was good enough to cover for him. He tops out as a good 2nd pair guy and I wish him well. I just think he was falling in the system with guys like Boqvist, Michell and Beaudin being clearly ahead of him (in the Hawks eyes) add Krys, Maatta (who is still young) and DeHaan (who is under 30) and this years 2nd rounder and it was obvious they have moved on. ... Though I wish they would have gotten more but have to wonder why nobody offered more.
 
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