Jay haller
Registered User
- Oct 22, 2017
- 1,504
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Except he's not. People take draft position too seriously.
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Scoring Goals Assists Shots Ice Time Season Age Tm Lg GP G A PTS +/- PIM EV PP SH GW EV PP SH S S% TSA TOI ATOI FOW FOL FO% BLK HIT TK GV Awards 2014-15 18 CGY NHL 1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0.0 5 16 16:00 2 10 16.7 0 0 2 0 2015-16 19 CGY NHL 77 18 18 36 -11 37 15 3 0 2 13 5 0 136 13.2 240 1166 15:09 160 187 46.1 32 110 34 27 2016-17 20 CGY NHL 81 13 13 26 -16 75 9 4 0 0 12 0 1 122 10.7 215 1214 14:59 374 437 46.1 46 127 43 25 2017-18 21 CGY NHL 82 11 15 26 -18 59 10 1 0 1 13 2 0 157 7.0 293 1181 14:24 119 100 54.3 34 140 54 32 Career 4 Seasons NHL 241 42 47 89 -46 171 34 8 0 3 39 7 1 416 10.1 753 3577 14:51 655 734 47.2 112 377 133 84
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Scoring Goals Assists Shots Ice Time Season Age Tm Lg GP G A PTS +/- PIM EV PP SH GW EV PP SH S S% TSA TOI ATOI FOW FOL FO% BLK HIT TK GV Awards 2015-16 22 TOR NHL 7 1 5 6 -2 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 11 9.1 20 105 14:58 0 0 2 1 4 0 2016-17 23 TOR NHL 82 20 16 36 3 10 17 2 1 4 12 4 0 139 14.4 249 1329 16:12 2 6 25.0 46 50 40 25 2017-18 24 TOR NHL 82 14 14 28 0 18 12 1 1 2 13 1 0 119 11.8 203 1231 15:01 59 93 38.8 28 23 45 26 Career 3 Seasons NHL 171 35 35 70 1 28 29 4 2 6 26 8 1 269 13.0 472 2665 15:35 61 99 38.1 76 74 89 51
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You, more or less, explained all that I did. Cheap 3rd line PK specialists aren’t worth a lateral player (marginal value in difference in Brown and Bennett as a player), a 2nd, and a 3rd. Given Bennett’s career performance, CGY should take that.Why would a 3rd change Calgary's mind? Worst case he's an effective cost controlled middle six winger that can play anywhere and the type of player you love to have on your team. That's a valuable player to have, not indispensable or anything but he helps the team. Add in the fact that he's getting stronger, his defensive game is improving continually, his PK game is sold and also improving, and once every ten games or so he's the best player on the ice. His floor is valuable and his ceiling is very high. There's no reason whatsoever to trade him for a 2nd or 3rd.
I don't know why he's inconsistent, I don't know what's going on in his head or if he'll ever figure it out. But if that one in ten game performance turns into a one in four game, we hit the jackpot. Even if he doesn't figure it out and just becomes an all around solid 3rd liner/PK specialist that every once in a while plays spectacularly. Who cares, that still helps the team and he'll be cheap for a long time.
Bennett has a super high iXGF and better possession numbers in tougher mins. Bennett has had very bad shooting luck. If he scored at his xgf, he would have 15 5v5 goals instead of 10 last season. Compared to brown who had 10 scoring right at his iXGF.Brown has outproduced him the last 2 seasons with less ice time.
Please enlighten us.
You, more or less, explained all that I did. Cheap 3rd line PK specialists aren’t worth a lateral player (marginal value in difference in Brown and Bennett as a player), a 2nd, and a 3rd. Given Bennett’s career performance, CGY should take that.
Bennett’s floor is almost what he’s playing now, while valuable, he’s like a slightly more skilled Michael Ferland, Dustin Brown, Ryan Callahan, etc... Sam Bennett has more value than all those players and that’s due to his potential. No team will pay for that potential until he starts to tap it. His ceiling is convoluted right now. I don’t think he ever taps that 2A, but more or less ends up in his current 3A stature, which no one should be extremely upset about.
You’re right in that he has a higher ceiling than Brown, but I guess we have to wait and see. Plus, being great in 1/10 games is downright awful for someone who was a high ceiling. That means he’s great for 8 games? If he can increase that ratio 250% then he’s good for 20 games on the year. I don’t know if you’re talking 1st star if the game capability... if so that’s a different story, but I don’t really see that being an acceptable argument.
He’s not a bad player and yes, he’s more or less a cost controlled effective checking player. I just think you may find something better with Brown and those 2 futures. Draft picks have more value than most people think.
Tkachuk will not be moved for anything short of Matthews/Tavares/Marner. Since we fixed our RW depth, we don’t need Marner anymore. Tavares just signed, so that just leaves Matthews.Nylander & 2nd for Tkachuk
Do you know what the word significant means?Connor Brown is a better player right now than Sam Bennett. They have basically the same even strength ice time, almost identical possession impact, but Brown has scored at a significantly higher rate than Bennett.
Bennett has been a 4th liner the past two seasons. I know he's 22, but that's not very promising. He's veering heavily towards "top pick who ends up as a career bottom sixer" territory.
You spelled tkachuk wrongNylander
To Leafs
Bennett
2nd rd pick
Yeah. From what you've seen. Your 2 games when the Leafs play the Flames?
There was a 10-15 game stretch last year Sam Bennett was our best player. When he was playing with Jankowski/Jagr (the most NHL caliber teammates he's had in two years) and then Hathaway switched in for Jagr; the guy was going near PPG and just a dominant force.
I feel for this kid, because he won't live up to being a 4th OA; but he's a super useful player who could easily pan out into a 40-50 point two-way player. He's still very young, and has shown at minimum he's a 3LW with grit. People forget how young he is, because of how much they want him to bust. He's current going to be the same age as Brown was when he played his rookie season in the NHL.
Bennett is a bust at 22? Good to know. I'm assuming the same logic will be applied to all the Leafs young players and prospects in future threads.
Sean Couturier had other things going for him though. Couturier was a good player who ate insanely tough usage, and eventually showed up as a strong possession player before his breakout. Bennett hasn't succeded unless he's been moved to the wing, and doesn't get particularly tough usage. Just look at the underlying numbers of them in their D+4 seasons. They have similar results, but one is doing it getting 60% Offensive to defensive zone start ratios while playing 3rd line level QOC, while the other is doing it starting in the offensive zone to defensive zone 39% of the time, and playing 1st line level quality of competition. Even if you believe Couturier benefitted by having better linemates, his situation usage wise was significantly harder.The value is not completely far off, but this is one the flames say no to. TOR should jump on this. Brown is nothing to gawk over, but he’s your B6 workhorse. Bennett brings grit and that is needed for a playoff team like TOR. This past postseason for TOR showed some scary signs of immaturity from top players not wanting to take a hit to make a play or not chasing pucks in the corner because of the physical battles (Nylander especially). As they get older, that stuff will go away. Nothing to get too concerned about unless it continues.
Bennett’s intangibles make him worth more than Brown + 2nd, but you’re not far off. Based off of your previous trades, this one isn’t bad. Everyone loves to look at raw stats because it’s (trying not to troll or be mean) like arguing for dummies- I’m sorry, I just don’t know how to word it any differently. Sure they mean a whole lot, but there’s so much more to the game than that.
Flames are hoping for Bennett to pull a Sean couturier. Until that time happens, you should expect proposals like Brown + 2nd. Flames also need to utilize him more effectively. If you add a 3rd to the 2nd, I don’t see how CGY can say no. It also seems a little too much just to add grit for TOR.
Couturier is a different story. I’m just using him as an example.Sean Couturier had other things going for him though. Couturier was a good player who ate insanely tough usage, and eventually showed up as a strong possession player before his breakout. Bennett hasn't succeded unless he's been moved to the wing, and doesn't get particularly tough usage. Just look at the underlying numbers of them in their D+4 seasons. They have similar results, but one is doing it getting 60% Offensive to defensive zone start ratios while playing 3rd line level QOC, while the other is doing it starting in the offensive zone to defensive zone 39% of the time, and playing 1st line level quality of competition. Even if you believe Couturier benefitted by having better linemates, his situation usage wise was significantly harder.
Here are Couturier's QOC numbers from 2014/15 (the comparable year to Bennett).Couturier is a different story. I’m just using him as an example.
Couturiers main linemates until last year: Matt Read, Zac Rinaldo, Max Talbot, Steve Downie, RJ Umberger, Wayne Simmonds, Vinny Lecavalier— in that order. Couts Played over 55% with Matt Read 3 different times. Correct, this is also the first season where Couturier started in the Ozone still less than last year ~43% last year. TOI, linemates, PP, and usage. Couts has it all along... they just never used him correctly. I disagree with the QOC part though. Throughout the 2013-2016 season... you would see Couts match up against 2nd line competition and 1st line when in the NZ and DZ. Funny enough, Hakstol puts his “defensive” key players against #1 lines. We saw that on the PHI EDM game when Bellemarre took on McDavid THE ENTIRE GAME.
Bennett could break out like him. He just needs to be utilized like him. Idk how the Flames lines will shape out, but why not use a grinder like him on the boards to feed picks to Monahan and Gaudreau?
if they are drafted 4 overall then yes.
the leafs took nylander 8th then marner 4th the next year.
135pts for nylander, 130 for marner vs 89 for bennett (playing an extra season)
dont think the flames fan have much of an argument here. the leafs last 5 top 10 picks are
Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Rielly
Kadri