Proposal: Brown & 2nd rd pick for Bennett

[Jay haller]

Superstar Connor Brown will get you superstar Trevor Van Riemsdyk

 

[CraigsList]

Except he's not. People take draft position too seriously.

Scoring	Goals	Assists	Shots	Ice Time
Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	EV	PP	SH	S	S%	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	BLK	HIT	TK	GV	Awards
2014-15	18	CGY	NHL	1	0	1	1	-1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.0	5	16	16:00	2	10	16.7	0	0	2	0
2015-16	19	CGY	NHL	77	18	18	36	-11	37	15	3	0	2	13	5	0	136	13.2	240	1166	15:09	160	187	46.1	32	110	34	27
2016-17	20	CGY	NHL	81	13	13	26	-16	75	9	4	0	0	12	0	1	122	10.7	215	1214	14:59	374	437	46.1	46	127	43	25
2017-18	21	CGY	NHL	82	11	15	26	-18	59	10	1	0	1	13	2	0	157	7.0	293	1181	14:24	119	100	54.3	34	140	54	32
Career		4 Seasons	NHL	241	42	47	89	-46	171	34	8	0	3	39	7	1	416	10.1	753	3577	14:51	655	734	47.2	112	377	133	84

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

Vs

Scoring	Goals	Assists	Shots	Ice Time
Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	EV	PP	SH	S	S%	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	BLK	HIT	TK	GV	Awards
2015-16	22	TOR	NHL	7	1	5	6	-2	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	1	11	9.1	20	105	14:58	0	0		2	1	4	0
2016-17	23	TOR	NHL	82	20	16	36	3	10	17	2	1	4	12	4	0	139	14.4	249	1329	16:12	2	6	25.0	46	50	40	25
2017-18	24	TOR	NHL	82	14	14	28	0	18	12	1	1	2	13	1	0	119	11.8	203	1231	15:01	59	93	38.8	28	23	45	26
Career		3 Seasons	NHL	171	35	35	70	1	28	29	4	2	6	26	8	1	269	13.0	472	2665	15:35	61	99	38.1	76	74	89	51

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

So we’re comparing Brown who is a few years older than Bennett, yet you guys scoff when we compare Gaudreau to Marner.

Double standards.

 

[CapnZin]

Why would a 3rd change Calgary's mind? Worst case he's an effective cost controlled middle six winger that can play anywhere and the type of player you love to have on your team. That's a valuable player to have, not indispensable or anything but he helps the team. Add in the fact that he's getting stronger, his defensive game is improving continually, his PK game is sold and also improving, and once every ten games or so he's the best player on the ice. His floor is valuable and his ceiling is very high. There's no reason whatsoever to trade him for a 2nd or 3rd.

I don't know why he's inconsistent, I don't know what's going on in his head or if he'll ever figure it out. But if that one in ten game performance turns into a one in four game, we hit the jackpot. Even if he doesn't figure it out and just becomes an all around solid 3rd liner/PK specialist that every once in a while plays spectacularly. Who cares, that still helps the team and he'll be cheap for a long time.

You, more or less, explained all that I did. Cheap 3rd line PK specialists aren’t worth a lateral player (marginal value in difference in Brown and Bennett as a player), a 2nd, and a 3rd. Given Bennett’s career performance, CGY should take that.

Bennett’s floor is almost what he’s playing now, while valuable, he’s like a slightly more skilled Michael Ferland, Dustin Brown, Ryan Callahan, etc... Sam Bennett has more value than all those players and that’s due to his potential. No team will pay for that potential until he starts to tap it. His ceiling is convoluted right now. I don’t think he ever taps that 2A, but more or less ends up in his current 3A stature, which no one should be extremely upset about.

You’re right in that he has a higher ceiling than Brown, but I guess we have to wait and see. Plus, being great in 1/10 games is downright awful for someone who was a high ceiling. That means he’s great for 8 games? If he can increase that ratio 250% then he’s good for 20 games on the year. I don’t know if you’re talking 1st star if the game capability... if so that’s a different story, but I don’t really see that being an acceptable argument.

He’s not a bad player and yes, he’s more or less a cost controlled effective checking player. I just think you may find something better with Brown and those 2 futures. Draft picks have more value than most people think.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Nylander & 2nd for Tkachuk

 

[Dustin]

I can understand why Calgary would not want to do this but as a Leafs fan I have no interest in paying a 2nd in the hopes that he becomes better than Brown.

Both of these players are still pretty young so it's hard to really gauge where they will end up. That being said it's funny to see how draft position can skew how people view a player. Brown is already considered a success based on where he was picked and the odds of players making the NHL at that late of a stage in the draft while Bennett is viewed as a possible bust because of his high pedigree.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Brown has outproduced him the last 2 seasons with less ice time.

Please enlighten us.

Bennett has a super high iXGF and better possession numbers in tougher mins. Bennett has had very bad shooting luck. If he scored at his xgf, he would have 15 5v5 goals instead of 10 last season. Compared to brown who had 10 scoring right at his iXGF.

 

[DJJones]

You, more or less, explained all that I did. Cheap 3rd line PK specialists aren’t worth a lateral player (marginal value in difference in Brown and Bennett as a player), a 2nd, and a 3rd. Given Bennett’s career performance, CGY should take that.

Bennett’s floor is almost what he’s playing now, while valuable, he’s like a slightly more skilled Michael Ferland, Dustin Brown, Ryan Callahan, etc... Sam Bennett has more value than all those players and that’s due to his potential. No team will pay for that potential until he starts to tap it. His ceiling is convoluted right now. I don’t think he ever taps that 2A, but more or less ends up in his current 3A stature, which no one should be extremely upset about.

You’re right in that he has a higher ceiling than Brown, but I guess we have to wait and see. Plus, being great in 1/10 games is downright awful for someone who was a high ceiling. That means he’s great for 8 games? If he can increase that ratio 250% then he’s good for 20 games on the year. I don’t know if you’re talking 1st star if the game capability... if so that’s a different story, but I don’t really see that being an acceptable argument.

He’s not a bad player and yes, he’s more or less a cost controlled effective checking player. I just think you may find something better with Brown and those 2 futures. Draft picks have more value than most people think.

A more skilled Ferland or Dustin Brown is a damn good player haha. You hope with a 2nd and a third you get that 3-5 years later. As Flames fan were ecstatic about Dube looking like he could be a middle six player. Why wouldn't you just keep the player to begin with? We paid a 2nd for Lazar and I wasn't really that upset. Didn't turn out and he might not even make the team this year but whatever. I liked the thought. You only trade players away for a 2nd if they are no longer cost controlled. An RFA whose points are less than his contribution? Treliving is going to have a field day if Bennett doesn't step it up.

>I don’t know if you’re talking 1st star if the game capability... if so that’s a different story, but I don’t really see that being an acceptable argument.

Ya 1st star caliber play. There was plenty of games where Bennett - Jankowski - Hathaway were our best line. Best forecheckers, best defenders, unreal offensive zone control, just fantastic hockey. Outplayed Backlund and Monahan's lines. Bennett was the line driver and Hathaway shouldn't even be on the team. So Bennett and a rookie C were our best line when they had absolutely no right to even be in the conversation. Two years ago in the playoffs, Bennett was our best forward. It's gut wrenching that he can't keep that level of play going but it's there and it comes out randomly. I lot of problems could be solved with a higher skilled RW and some damn puck luck though. Guy either has horrible luck or the worst shot in the league.

 

[CraigsList]

Nylander & 2nd for Tkachuk

Tkachuk will not be moved for anything short of Matthews/Tavares/Marner. Since we fixed our RW depth, we don’t need Marner anymore. Tavares just signed, so that just leaves Matthews.

If you want to trade Matthews for Tkachuk+, then the Flames will talk. Otherwise, it’s pointless for us.

 

[slimbob8]

I'd consider this from the Leafs side. I'm not nearly as high on Brown as others and I think Bennett still has some untapped potential. I'd probably want the pick to be a little lower though.

 

[JackFr]

Connor Brown is a better player right now than Sam Bennett. They have basically the same even strength ice time, almost identical possession impact, but Brown has scored at a significantly higher rate than Bennett.

Bennett has been a 4th liner the past two seasons. I know he's 22, but that's not very promising. He's veering heavily towards "top pick who ends up as a career bottom sixer" territory.

 

[blankall]

Connor Brown is a better player right now than Sam Bennett. They have basically the same even strength ice time, almost identical possession impact, but Brown has scored at a significantly higher rate than Bennett.

Bennett has been a 4th liner the past two seasons. I know he's 22, but that's not very promising. He's veering heavily towards "top pick who ends up as a career bottom sixer" territory.

Do you know what the word significant means?

Bennett had 26 points last season and Brown had 28. Both players have career highs of 36 points, which they put up in their rookie seasons.

 

[Morgs]

I'd do it... But I'm not a fan of Brown.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Nylander

To Leafs
Bennett
2nd rd pick

You spelled tkachuk wrong

 

[Taytro]

Yeah. From what you've seen. Your 2 games when the Leafs play the Flames?

There was a 10-15 game stretch last year Sam Bennett was our best player. When he was playing with Jankowski/Jagr (the most NHL caliber teammates he's had in two years) and then Hathaway switched in for Jagr; the guy was going near PPG and just a dominant force.

I feel for this kid, because he won't live up to being a 4th OA; but he's a super useful player who could easily pan out into a 40-50 point two-way player. He's still very young, and has shown at minimum he's a 3LW with grit. People forget how young he is, because of how much they want him to bust. He's current going to be the same age as Brown was when he played his rookie season in the NHL.

Not a Leafs fan and I couldnt agree more with you on literally everything you've said. I just do not think hes shown flashes of excellence, consistency, or elite play. I don't forget how old he is because i wanted Edmonton to take him over Draisaitl. Hes just not elite, I watch a lot of flames games and he isnt elite.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Brown + 2nd has very 'meh' value

 

[Leafs87]

Doubt the flames are looking to sell low on a 22 year old top 5 pick.

Also wouldn’t pay a second to see if he can reach his potential because right now they’re pretty comparable players with brown on a good deal and a food fit with team chemistry already

 

[Sparksrus3]

You spelled tkachuk wrong

M a t t h e w s

 

[Brobust]

So the top pick lustre still hasn't worn off Bennett?

 

[6ix]

Bennett’s a bust. Only reason flame fans are saying no is because of his draft status. If he was drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round no one would be taking about him.

Now I do understand flames fans wanting to hold on to him and see if he can turn it around but right now he’s legit not as useful as Connor Brown.

 

[Halla]

so leafs trade a young forward who had 20g as a rookie and is one of top PKers on the team PLUS a 2nd for a guy that hasnt hit 20g and has taken a step back two seasons in a row?

easy pass

 

[Halla]

Bennett is a bust at 22? Good to know. I'm assuming the same logic will be applied to all the Leafs young players and prospects in future threads.

if they are drafted 4 overall then yes.
the leafs took nylander 8th then marner 4th the next year.

135pts for nylander, 130 for marner vs 89 for bennett (playing an extra season)


dont think the flames fan have much of an argument here. the leafs last 5 top 10 picks are

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Rielly
Kadri

 

[93LEAFS]

The value is not completely far off, but this is one the flames say no to. TOR should jump on this. Brown is nothing to gawk over, but he’s your B6 workhorse. Bennett brings grit and that is needed for a playoff team like TOR. This past postseason for TOR showed some scary signs of immaturity from top players not wanting to take a hit to make a play or not chasing pucks in the corner because of the physical battles (Nylander especially). As they get older, that stuff will go away. Nothing to get too concerned about unless it continues.

Bennett’s intangibles make him worth more than Brown + 2nd, but you’re not far off. Based off of your previous trades, this one isn’t bad. Everyone loves to look at raw stats because it’s (trying not to troll or be mean) like arguing for dummies- I’m sorry, I just don’t know how to word it any differently. Sure they mean a whole lot, but there’s so much more to the game than that.

Flames are hoping for Bennett to pull a Sean couturier. Until that time happens, you should expect proposals like Brown + 2nd. Flames also need to utilize him more effectively. If you add a 3rd to the 2nd, I don’t see how CGY can say no. It also seems a little too much just to add grit for TOR.

Sean Couturier had other things going for him though. Couturier was a good player who ate insanely tough usage, and eventually showed up as a strong possession player before his breakout. Bennett hasn't succeded unless he's been moved to the wing, and doesn't get particularly tough usage. Just look at the underlying numbers of them in their D+4 seasons. They have similar results, but one is doing it getting 60% Offensive to defensive zone start ratios while playing 3rd line level QOC, while the other is doing it starting in the offensive zone to defensive zone 39% of the time, and playing 1st line level quality of competition. Even if you believe Couturier benefitted by having better linemates, his situation usage wise was significantly harder.

 

[CapnZin]

Sean Couturier had other things going for him though. Couturier was a good player who ate insanely tough usage, and eventually showed up as a strong possession player before his breakout. Bennett hasn't succeded unless he's been moved to the wing, and doesn't get particularly tough usage. Just look at the underlying numbers of them in their D+4 seasons. They have similar results, but one is doing it getting 60% Offensive to defensive zone start ratios while playing 3rd line level QOC, while the other is doing it starting in the offensive zone to defensive zone 39% of the time, and playing 1st line level quality of competition. Even if you believe Couturier benefitted by having better linemates, his situation usage wise was significantly harder.

Couturier is a different story. I’m just using him as an example.

Couturiers main linemates until last year: Matt Read, Zac Rinaldo, Max Talbot, Steve Downie, RJ Umberger, Wayne Simmonds, Vinny Lecavalier— in that order. Couts Played over 55% with Matt Read 3 different times. Correct, this is also the first season where Couturier started in the Ozone still less than last year ~43% last year. TOI, linemates, PP, and usage. Couts has it all along... they just never used him correctly. I disagree with the QOC part though. Throughout the 2013-2016 season... you would see Couts match up against 2nd line competition and 1st line when in the NZ and DZ. Funny enough, Hakstol puts his “defensive” key players against #1 lines. We saw that on the PHI EDM game when Bellemarre took on McDavid THE ENTIRE GAME.

Bennett could break out like him. He just needs to be utilized like him. Idk how the Flames lines will shape out, but why not use a grinder like him on the boards to feed picks to Monahan and Gaudreau?

 

[93LEAFS]

Couturier is a different story. I’m just using him as an example.

Couturiers main linemates until last year: Matt Read, Zac Rinaldo, Max Talbot, Steve Downie, RJ Umberger, Wayne Simmonds, Vinny Lecavalier— in that order. Couts Played over 55% with Matt Read 3 different times. Correct, this is also the first season where Couturier started in the Ozone still less than last year ~43% last year. TOI, linemates, PP, and usage. Couts has it all along... they just never used him correctly. I disagree with the QOC part though. Throughout the 2013-2016 season... you would see Couts match up against 2nd line competition and 1st line when in the NZ and DZ. Funny enough, Hakstol puts his “defensive” key players against #1 lines. We saw that on the PHI EDM game when Bellemarre took on McDavid THE ENTIRE GAME.

Bennett could break out like him. He just needs to be utilized like him. Idk how the Flames lines will shape out, but why not use a grinder like him on the boards to feed picks to Monahan and Gaudreau?

Here are Couturier's QOC numbers from 2014/15 (the comparable year to Bennett).

QOC by TOI%: 29.4
QOC by CF%: 50.18%

Here are Bennett's for last year

QOC by TOI%: 28.36
QOC by CF%: 49.72

Generally, the most paid attention to QOC measure is TOI%, in which there is a massive gap between the two. I don't think Bennett has the same underlying strengths you could point to with Couturier prior to his breakout. For the two seasons prior to his breakout Couturier had been an elite possession player playing against top lines. Prior to that in his D+4 season, while he wasn't strong possessionally, he was seeing way tougher competition and zone starts than Bennett ever has. He also was very clearly a center, something Bennett has struggled at when used there, seeing his best success when being attached to a play-driving center in Backlund.

 

[PinkFly]

if they are drafted 4 overall then yes.
the leafs took nylander 8th then marner 4th the next year.

135pts for nylander, 130 for marner vs 89 for bennett (playing an extra season)


dont think the flames fan have much of an argument here. the leafs last 5 top 10 picks are

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Rielly
Kadri

Now that I think about it, Flames rookies/sophmores tend to get worse as time goes on. Just look at Monahan, he has built an NHL career leeching off Gaudreau.