Proposal: Brown & 2nd rd pick for Bennett

[BleedBlue14]

Outside of Draft position, I don't see much that separates the two from a production stand point. Regardless, one team may like one of the guys play style enough to give up a second instead of the other but I just don't see why the second would be all too necessary.

 

[Baxterman]

Easy pass for the Flames.

I have zero interest in Connor Brown and would prefer keeping Bennett over the 2nd as well.

 

[Rob Brown]

Brown has outproduced him the last 2 seasons with less ice time.

Please enlighten us.

This. Pretty easy no.

 

[CapnZin]

Here are Couturier's QOC numbers from 2014/15 (the comparable year to Bennett).

QOC by TOI%: 29.4
QOC by CF%: 50.18%

Here are Bennett's for last year

QOC by TOI%: 28.36
QOC by CF%: 49.72

Generally, the most paid attention to QOC measure is TOI%, in which there is a massive gap between the two. I don't think Bennett has the same underlying strengths you could point to with Couturier prior to his breakout. For the two seasons prior to his breakout Couturier had been an elite possession player playing against top lines. Prior to that in his D+4 season, while he wasn't strong possessionally, he was seeing way tougher competition and zone starts than Bennett ever has. He also was very clearly a center, something Bennett has struggled at when used there, seeing his best success when being attached to a play-driving center in Backlund.

I like CF metrics, but not in comparison. Someone and I had another long discussion about this on another thread. CF is basically a team stat... kinda the same as +\-. It doesn’t really show the entire story. You can, however, make it show the entire story, but it’s complex... pretty complex. You would have to take each player that he’s really played against going through the season you posted (2014/15) and make all of their underlying metrics /60 or whichever denomination as long as it’s equal. I just wouldn’t use CF to make much of an argument unless there’s truly an outstanding difference.. like a player changing the game because he drives play that much.

QOC is also something I don’t really like lol. Sorry to be this nit picky. I don’t look a lot into it, but my question is if it counts PP/PK usage. Both of those metrics can seriously change the way that value is set up. I take it you mean that 29.4% is against 3rd line competition? That doesn’t necessarily mean he played more against the 3rd line. Idk if you used Corsica or created your own algorithm... but as a comparison (reduces the error on the 29.4% to effectively 0) TOI/G/60 is merely measures me for this facet. Create the algorithm where TOI = TOI. That will show you, in this instance ONLY, how much each person was faced.

You understand what I mean by that? Let’s say:
X played 20 min and 5 on Pp/Pk. Let’s say that 9 min came against 3rd line. 60% QoCTOI% 3rd line.
Y played 20 min and 8 on Pp/Pk. Let’s say 9 min against 3rd line. 75% QoCTOI% 3rd line.
***Obviously a lot more goes into it, but I’m just trying to show my thinking. I’m not that familiar with it.

I don’t know how they come up with that stat, but when comparing... all of the used underlying stats have to have the same denomination and the metrics from QoC player metrics have to have the same denomination. Otherwise the result can be kinda convoluted.

I’m not extremely familiar with the QoCTOI% metric. A lot of these metrics, when comparing, are statistically flawed. There are ways to correct for that, but it’s kinda dumb for arguments like these.

Please correct me if I am wrong anywhere. Either that or message me privately so we don’t change the course of this thread.

 

[93LEAFS]

I like CF metrics, but not in comparison. Someone and I had another long discussion about this on another thread. CF is basically a team stat... kinda the same as +\-. It doesn’t really show the entire story. You can, however, make it show the entire story, but it’s complex... pretty complex. You would have to take each player that he’s really played against going through the season you posted (2014/15) and make all of their underlying metrics /60 or whichever denomination as long as it’s equal. I just wouldn’t use CF to make much of an argument unless there’s truly an outstanding difference.. like a player changing the game because he drives play that much.

QOC is also something I don’t really like lol. Sorry to be this nit picky. I don’t look a lot into it, but my question is if it counts PP/PK usage. Both of those metrics can seriously change the way that value is set up. I take it you mean that 29.4% is against 3rd line competition? That doesn’t necessarily mean he played more against the 3rd line. Idk if you used Corsica or created your own algorithm... but as a comparison (reduces the error on the 29.4% to effectively 0) TOI/G/60 is merely measures me for this facet. Create the algorithm where TOI = TOI. That will show you, in this instance ONLY, how much each person was faced.

You understand what I mean by that? Let’s say:
X played 20 min and 5 on Pp/Pk. Let’s say that 9 min came against 3rd line. 60% QoCTOI% 3rd line.
Y played 20 min and 8 on Pp/Pk. Let’s say 9 min against 3rd line. 75% QoCTOI% 3rd line.
***Obviously a lot more goes into it, but I’m just trying to show my thinking. I’m not that familiar with it.

I don’t know how they come up with that stat, but when comparing... all of the used underlying stats have to have the same denomination and the metrics from QoC player metrics have to have the same denomination. Otherwise the result can be kinda convoluted.

I’m not extremely familiar with the QoCTOI% metric. A lot of these metrics, when comparing, are statistically flawed. There are ways to correct for that, but it’s kinda dumb for arguments like these.

Please correct me if I am wrong anywhere. Either that or message me privately so we don’t change the course of this thread.

QOC TOI% measures the amount ice-time you get against the players on the opposing team and breaks it down to a percentage. Higher meaning tougher competition. The belief is built around that a coach generally is correct in giving his top players optimal minutes, and therefore if you are facing guys who get a lot of minutes, you are facing the toughest possible competition. The issue with CF% QOC is that, if 3rd liners and 4th liners are commonly match-up against each other, it will inflate the corsi numbers.

I was looking at 5v5 play, so ice-time on the PP or PK are not factored in.

I mean, you could go through Natural Stat Trick and see who Couturier played against the most, and who Bennett faced the most, and it would probably align. If you want to look, here are the minutes played by each and who they played against in those respective seasons.

Sean Couturier - Opposition - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

Sam Bennett - Opposition - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Lunatik]

Bennett is a bust at 22? Good to know. I'm assuming the same logic will be applied to all the Leafs young players and prospects in future threads.

Ironically by the same half witted logic Connor Brown is also a bust, I mean at 22 he only played 7 NHL games. amirte?

Not to mention the way they overrate 22 year old Kapanen.

 

[Lunatik]

Bennett’s a bust. Only reason flame fans are saying no is because of his draft status. If he was drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round no one would be taking about him.

Now I do understand flames fans wanting to hold on to him and see if he can turn it around but right now he’s legit not as useful as Connor Brown.

No, the problem is people throwing out the term bust without having the intelligence to understand the meaning. A bust is a player unable to carve out an NHL career. Has Bennett lived up to expectations? No. Is he underwhelming? Yes. But he has carved out a role in spite of his lack of offensive success and will have a long career if he stays healthy. Also, Bennett is only 22, so calling him a bust at that age is also pretty stupid.

 

[Ratboy]

I like Bennett. This Leafs fan would do it in a heartbeat but, Bennett has more value than Brown and a 2nd. Keep Bennett, I hope he turns out well for you guys.

 

[Lunatik]

I like Bennett. This Leafs fan would do it in a heartbeat but, Bennett has more value than Brown and a 2nd. Keep Bennett, I hope he turns out well for you guys.

Well, his value is debatable. But, I agree we need to keep him. It's at the point where his trade value doesn't match his value to the team. So, unless a team offers more than his value to the team, it makes no sense to move him.

 

[Ratboy]

Well, his value is debatable. But, I agree we need to keep him. It's at the point where his trade value doesn't match his value to the team. So, unless a team offers more than his value to the team, it makes no sense to move him.

Seems that he's on your 4th line on your depth chart ? I'm pretty shocked at that, I'd figure he'd be your 3rd line C. Regardless I think his ceiling is higher than Browns, someone who's a useful grinder/pker but I don't expect much else out of him.

 

[blankall]

if they are drafted 4 overall then yes.
the leafs took nylander 8th then marner 4th the next year.

135pts for nylander, 130 for marner vs 89 for bennett (playing an extra season)


dont think the flames fan have much of an argument here. the leafs last 5 top 10 picks are

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Rielly
Kadri

Don't see what that has to do with Bennett's development. The Flames drafted the consensus choice at #4. Bennett has been disappointing, but not a bust.

Also those are the only good picks Toronto's taken over the last ten years.

This thread also needs to die. The Flames aren't trading Bennett for scraps and a player like Brown might not even crack the Flames' roster. He's basically a less physical Bennett without the potential to be anything more.

 

[Lunatik]

Seems that he's on your 4th line on your depth chart ? I'm pretty shocked at that, I'd figure he'd be your 3rd line C. Regardless I think his ceiling is higher than Browns, someone who's a useful grinder/pker but I don't expect much else out of him.

Right now, much is up in the air. He might be used on the 4th line, if he does, it's because of the depth we have added this summer more than anything, he was a solid 3rd line LW for us last year. But with adding Neal, it pushed Frolik down to the 3rd line and adding Derek Ryan pushed Jankowski to the 4th line. Bennett could be on the 3rd line if he outplays Czarnik, but so far this preseason he has not done so, but in fairness to his Czarnik has been one of the best Flames overall this preseason. So for the time being, it looks like our most common 3rd line of a year ago, will be our 4th to start the season.... of course this all also changes if Dube does force his way onto the team too, which looks very likely for the time being.

 

[McSuper]

Brown has outproduced him the last 2 seasons with less ice time.

Please enlighten us.

You do know development is different for ever player ? Some player don't break out until their mid 20s . Also if you want to go by points only how about trading a couple of high end prospects and a couple of 1st for him because you know Bennett out produced them in the NHL . I will tell you why you won't do the deal " potential " something Bennett has and Brown doesn't

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

There’s no chance Treliving does this. I could only see Bennett being moved in a package for Nylander.

 

[LeafGrief]

There’s no chance Treliving does this. I could only see Bennett being moved in a package for Nylander.

Bennett has as much value in a package for Nylander as Brown does in a package for Tkachuk. Which is to say, none.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

To Flames
Brown
2nd rd pick

To Leafs
Bennett

You really think that other teams couldn't make a better offer than that?

 

[SjMilhouse]

Is Brown the new Gardiner? Someone who has all this "value" but is the main piece in every trade offering.

Not sure why either team does this...seems like a lateral move for both

 

[FerrisRox]

To Flames
Brown
2nd rd pick

To Leafs
Bennett

If the Flames were willing to move Bennett that cheaply, they would have a lot of suitors.

 

[Tkachuky]

Now that I think about it, Flames rookies/sophmores tend to get worse as time goes on. Just look at Monahan, he has built an NHL career leeching off Gaudreau.

Hahahahahahahahahaha wow!

You have no idea what you’re talking about.