Player Discussion: Brock Nelson

[periferal]

Not trying to knock your beliefs here, but if this is truly what you believe, you're going to really hate Lou being GM. At least based on his past history as a GM, because that has never been how he operates.

Oh I get it. wang and snow were the polar opposite to my beliefs so I'm used to being incredibly disappointed. That said at least Lou is a legit NHL executive. Do I trust him 100% as GM? Absolutely not. I've disagreed with a lot of his moves going back to the Devils, and don't like the fact he's in his 70's now.

I also HATE that it seems his son Chris is on track to be the next GM (and I also wonder if that wasn't promised to him by Malkin as part of the pitch to get him here).

That said, do I trust Lou 10000% more than snow? Yes, yes, yes I do. We NEVER had a shot at winning a Cup under wang/snow, and anyone who thinks that isn't the case has been ******bating via their keyboard since 2000. Do I wish Lou was just the president of the team working on changing the culture and hired another GM (NOT his son) to run the team? Absolutely.

The person I trust the most in the entire organization is Trotz. For years I thought he was the best coach in the league. Not saying that means he should be GM, but I sure hope Lou goes to him first before making any moves.

 

[danteipp]

8 million for a legit #2 Center is what the Isles should expect to pay, and should do so.

That is probably the floor for Duchene and it will probably also cost more (perhaps significantly more) to convince him to come to the Isles - assuming other more "attractive" teams are involved. Everyone seems to think attracting premium free agents or trading for another teams stars is so easy around here. It is going to be a tough sell until the Isles start winning, even with Lou and Trotz on board.

 

[Sparksrus3]

Daily faceoff which shows teams line combinations also ranks each player at the position. Where they get info I can not say. They have Brock listed as the 91st best center in the league . But not for our team. He's #1 baby

 

[ndgolden]

That is probably the floor for Duchene and it will probably also cost more (perhaps significantly more) to convince him to come to the Isles - assuming other more "attractive" teams are involved. Everyone seems to think attracting premium free agents or trading for another teams stars is so easy around here. It is going to be a tough sell until the Isles start winning, even with Lou and Trotz on board.

Great points all accounts, but they have to try and fill one of these key areas.

 

[YearlyLottery]

While Nelson has been playing well this season, if he wants a deal making anything more than $4 million he better start being a lot more consistent scoring wise.

 

[Glory Days]

While Nelson has been playing well this season, if he wants a deal making anything more than $4 million he better start being a lot more consistent scoring wise.

Nelson isn't a play maker. If he is going to play center then he needs a play making wing. Bailey should really be on that line but I don't think Trotz wants Eberle with Barzal. I would sit Eberle a few games and put Ho-Sang with Nelson and Lee. It would add speed and play making to that line.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

It's December. Brock's gonna Brock.

 

[crasherino]

That is probably the floor for Duchene and it will probably also cost more (perhaps significantly more) to convince him to come to the Isles - assuming other more "attractive" teams are involved. Everyone seems to think attracting premium free agents or trading for another teams stars is so easy around here. It is going to be a tough sell until the Isles start winning, even with Lou and Trotz on board.

Realistically it will take something at $10m AAV to get Duchene here. He's not Pajamas necessarily but we don't get a hometown discount. We need to overpay. So if Pajamas got $11m AAV, we probably need to get to $10.5 or so. But if that's what it takes, what's an extra $1m/year amongst friends?

 

[seafoam]

Christmas trees are not the only trees Brock Nelson enjoys in Decemeber.

 

[Macch]

Brock is going to cause quite the headache.

He's playing much better this season, but is he really a 2c on a Stanley Cup contending team?

I would still have to say no.

 

[PK Cronin]

Brock is going to cause quite the headache.

He's playing much better this season, but is he really a 2c on a Stanley Cup contending team?

I would still have to say no.

He's not, no. Could be a good third line center if he continues to play the way he has, but that's a luxury at the cost he'll command on his next contract.

 

[Macch]

He's not, no. Could be a good third line center if he continues to play the way he has, but that's a luxury at the cost he'll command on his next contract.

That's the problem. He can get 2c money on the open market, but i can't see the Isles signing him for that price.

Unfortunately, I would guess we'll lose Brock for nothing.

 

[seafoam]

He's not, no. Could be a good third line center if he continues to play the way he has, but that's a luxury at the cost he'll command on his next contract.

If I’m paying north of 5M for a 3C, he’s got to contribute in more ways than just points. Nelson doesn’t do that enough for me personally.

He didn’t exactly produce in his 3C role last seasom, albeit that was a different (i.e bad) system, but the ice time and the powerplay time was the same.

 

[danteipp]

Brock is going to cause quite the headache.

He's playing much better this season, but is he really a 2c on a Stanley Cup contending team?

I would still have to say no.

On a true cup contender, I think he is a 3C. And, assuming Trotz and co. believe in him and he has truly turned a corner, I would be up for giving him something around $5 million per over five years.

Primarily because the Isles have so many young and cheap wingers in the system. Beau, JHS, MDC (if he has finally figured it out), Bellows, Wahlstrom, Golyshev potentially, Ish, etc. are all cost controlled so you can pay a bit more for a 3C, assuming the contract isn't longer than five seasons.

It would also be much easier to fit in an extension for Nelson if the Isles could find a taker for Clusterf#ck's deal. I would love to move out that $3.5 million per year hit.

Outside of landing a Panarin, Duchene or Karlsson in UFA, moving out Cal's contract (or at least the majority of it) would be a worthy entry into the "Festivus Feats of Strength" by Lou. "A Festivus for the rest of us!"

 

[PK Cronin]

If I’m paying north of 5M for a 3C, he’s got to contribute in more ways than just points. Nelson doesn’t do that enough for me personally.

He didn’t exactly produce in his 3C role last seasom, albeit that was a different (i.e bad) system, but the ice time and the powerplay time was the same.

That's my concern too from last year. Can he be a defensively responsible shutdown center, like Filppula, and score 20 goals a year still? Then he'd be worth that money. If not, he won't ever live up to the contract he's going to get.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Christmas trees are not the only trees Brock Nelson enjoys in Decemeber.

He likes the Hanukah kush....I mean bush.

 

[Kauskey]

Trotz seems to lean on him, especially for defensive zone face-offs. I don't think he's going to be good enough to warrant that kind of contract, but we're kinda in a bind because I doubt we'd be able to find a suitable replacement through free agency, which will force our hand a little bit. I have a feeling we're going to extend him, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 6+ million per year.

 

[Metnut]

I’d be willing to go longer on term with Nelson in exchange for less AAV. His age and his playing style makes me think he’s at a lower risk to really decline during a 6 year deal.

Any chance he extends for 6yrs/$28.5M?

 

[redbull]

I addressed all this in a previous post...

1. Nelson is getting AT LEAST 5M/year for 5+ years so that means he would have the WRONG "price and term."
2. I would accept Nelson as a 3rd line center as well, but his new deal is going to price him out of being one. Basically the $$$ a team is going to commit to Nelson are 2nd line center dollars.
3. Add all that up and he should be traded for for assets (that will help us get a legit 2nd line center we agree we need)

point being that an Islander fan (organization) knows the real Brock Nelson more than the stats or other scouts/GMs may see. Hence, he's probably worth more on the market (deadline) than signing him for $5MMx5 - but I'm not sure what the return may be NOR who can be brought in for similar or more money to eat those minutes.

Surely there will be enough rumours out there in Feb

 

[ndgolden]

That's the problem. He can get 2c money on the open market, but i can't see the Isles signing him for that price.

#2 centers will have a resume of 60 plus point seasons. Assists to goal ratio will also be higher with most play making centers.

 

[PK Cronin]

I’d be willing to go longer on term with Nelson in exchange for less AAV. His age and his playing style makes me think he’s at a lower risk to really decline during a 6 year deal.

Any chance he extends for 6yrs/$28.5M?

Can't see that happening. I could live with that if he didn't get protection with it.

 

[periferal]

Can't see that happening. I could live with that if he didn't get protection with it.

But once you give him that deal no one else is trading for him anyway, so might as well give him a NTC.

 

[PK Cronin]

But once you give him that deal no one else is trading for him anyway, so might as well give him a NTC.

That's not true at all. He's a perennial 20 goal scorer, they don't grow on trees. Plus, it prevents the team from trading him and eating salary, which is definitely possible if the deal went south.

 

[periferal]

That's not true at all. He's a perennial 20 goal scorer, they don't grow on trees. Plus, it prevents the team from trading him and eating salary, which is definitely possible if the deal went south.

I'm being half-facetious about the NTC, but I think Brock is getting around 6M/year if he hits UFA.

That said no team is trading anything of value for an inconsistent forward getting 6M/year who has no value when he's not scoring.

 

[PK Cronin]

I'm being half-facetious about the NTC, but I think Brock is getting around 6M/year if he hits UFA.

That said no team is trading anything of value for an inconsistent forward getting 6M/year who has no value when he's not scoring.

The proposed deal would have him making $4.75 million per year, which is definitely something teams would be after.