Originally Posted by fauxflex :
Coburn is overrated. His offensive game has regressed over the years and his overall play is very inconsistent. Coburn skates well and has size, but man, he seems to make less good use of those tools as each season goes by. Many like him because he's the longest tenured Flyer and a good guy and he's "big and mobile", but the reality is the player has pretty much regressed from his first couple of years here where he looked to have all the makings of a legit two way-guy who could play solid D while producing 40 points (give or take) or so. He was more featured in the offense and got some pp time. Nowadays the offense has dried up and his defensive inconsistencies get exposed more often.
Knowing nothing about their prior years, if one looked to objectively compare Grossmann and Coburn this season, once could make a pretty strong case that Grossmann has been the superior player (and a better value at his cap hit). Yet the perception by many seems to be Grossmann is overrated, overpaid and expendable while Coburn is the better player. I'd like to see the Flyers capitalize on that perception and entertain offers and try to get a 1st rounder for him before his new deal makes him even more overpaid.
Add up? Math? You want numbers then?
5 on 5 play:
Goals Scored Against the Flyers while player is on the ice (per 60 minutes of icetime):
Grossmann: 1.70
Coburn: 2.32
Goals Scored by the Flyers while player is on the ice (per 60 minutes of icetime):
Grossmann: 2.20
Coburn: 1.91
Points scored (goals or assists) by the player per 60 minutes of icetime):
Grossmann: .80
Coburn: .54
+/- of the team when player is on the ice (per 60 min):
Grossmann: .50
Coburn: (-.41)
Save Percentage of the Flyers when player is on the ice.
Grossmann
.945
Coburn:
.916
There's more, but, you get the idea. I don't depend solely on statistics when analyzing a player but those are pretty compelling underlying numbers indicating Grossmann has been significantly more effective, both offensively and defensively than Coburn this year (5v5).
I've watched most of the games and have seen the players with my own eyes how each has played. From that, I can say a few things...
Grossmann plays a more consistently physical brand of hockey and clears crease more frequently
Grossmann's gap control is better than Coburn's
Grossmann makes good basic puck moving plays in the defensive zone and can skate it out effectively when he has to.
Grossmann can surprise you with his offensive side when joining the play...he makes smart, short pinches, good keep-ins and gets shots on/toward the net when given the clear chance to do so...despite the (erroneous) perception of him being slow, he is rarely beat back if things go the other way.
Speaking of, Grossmann isn't nearly as slow as the perception --he's not a speedster, or as fast as Coburn can be, but when he's healthy (like he is now) he can skate well for a big man...it's rare to see him get beat for his lack of skating...on more than one occasion I've seen him make hustle plays where he beats forecheckers to loose pucks and wins races back to get back and defend against a rush when there's a turnover..those kinds of things. The perception of him though, it's almost like others aren't seeing those plays I see. I can probably dig up some video examples if you need to see proof the guy isn't as bad a skater as you might think.
-Coburn is much less consistent game to game sometimes shift to shift. He makes some plays that will make you happy and maybe have a few good games, but then look like total dung other games, disinterested, not engaging physically, poor gap control, turnovers, losing men in coverage, taking bad penalties etc. Coburn plays best when he has some snarl to his game but we don't see that often enough.
Coburn's severe decline of offensive production really impacts his value to me. I could put up with his inconsistencies in his game if he would produce 30-40 points like he did in his first year or two here when it seemed like he was a two-way stud in the making. Where'd that guy go? Coburn has some offensive tools but he's not applying himself enough and not executing on opportunities as well as he once did and not even as well as Grossmann has been doing.
Another aspect is Age and health.
Both players are 29. So, even-Steven there.
Health: Grossmann seems to have bounced back into form after tendon repair surgery last year. He's been healthy and skating well.
Coburn was banged up and was on crutches earlier this season and was out for many games. It's unclear if there will be any long term/lingering effects.
If you go by very recent history, Grossmann has been the healthier player. We'll see how that plays out..injuries can be unpredictable.
This all adds up to the reality being, this season, Grossmann has been the better player, and, I believe, is the far better value as far as bang for the Flyers cap dollar. Based on this, I'd sooner look to trade the "soon to be given another raise for no reason" Coburn and retain the big Swede and his more consistent play, at a lower cap hit.
Striker said:
He was bad for the first few games since he came back from injury, but since then he's been much better.
Not really. He's been inconsistent (as usual)...he'll look good for a game or two then not so good for a stretch. In the most recent several games he's been nothing special...he's been a minus player and he basically lost the game in Colorado by taking a stupid tripping penalty that resulted in a tying PP goal for the Avs, (wasting Giroux's amazing tie breaking PP goal a moment earlier). Coburn was also on the ice looking bad (getting pushed down onto the ice in front of Mason) on O'Reilly's game winner in OT. Yeah, he's playing so much better!
Spike said:
You could make a case that Grossmann's been the better player, just like I could make a case that the sun is cold. The problem is that we'd both be wrong.
Speak for yourself.
Spiike said:
Coburn's at least as good defensively and he's miles and miles ahead in both skating and passing.
Grossmann plays a more physical brand of hockey on a regular basis. His shot blocking prowess, checking against the boards and in front of the net, as well as his ability to execute good, basic puck moving plays, night in and night out make him a solid and effective defender. I think Coburn's inconsistencies in these areas, coupled with his dried up, inferior offensive output make him the less valuable defender, and the numbers bear that out.
As far as the skating...yes we all know Coburn has wheels...good for him, what's it really doing for him? Is he scoring more points? Saving more goals against than the "slower" Grossmann? No. As far as the passing...when he's confident and playing well (which is usually fleeting) Coburn can make some nice outlet passes but he doesn't show any particular flair for the slick/creative pass or anything special. Grossmann doesn't get much credit for it, but he consistently makes good solid short passes from in the D zone, either up to a forward or D to D. Trouble comes when the forwards and/or other D aren't supporting and his options get limited...we get the icings and such. I'd say they're more or less even in terms of overall passing effectiveness depending on how you want to look at it.
Spiike said:
The reason he could be moved is because he's going to want a lot for his next contract and his our most valuable non-core piece. Getting a pick instead of overpaying for an aging defensemen is a good thing, especially because we need to make room for prospects. Definitely want to get rid of Grossmann, but that's because he's just plain bad and not worth much.
I agree on the first count, on moving Coburn...but totally disagree on the second on wanting to get rid of Grossmann. I mean, really? Do you watch the games? Check the stats? He's is the least of this team's problems. Grossmann is not perfect...he'll make mistakes from time to time like any player, but as long as he's healthy, he's pretty damn solid out there... doing yeoman's work, night in and night out. He's a good value at his salary and, unlike Coburn, can likely be retained at a nice reasonable price for another few years when the time comes to re-up.
The bottom line is, given the state of the team, it's probably the best move to trade Coburn for the highest pick/prospect they can get, which adds young talent and subtracts cap dollars. When you look at what you're giving up in trading Coburn versus the scenario of keeping him and maybe trading a Grossmann instead, I don't think you lose all that much except salary and you might even not miss a beat (like when he was out earlier this season).
