Player Discussion: Brandon Tanev

[DashingDane]

WAR and GAR more or less matches what I though I saw last season... Exception would be that I have Scheifele as the best player on the team.

 

[Trilliann]

WAR and GAR more or less matches what I though I saw last season... Exception would be that I have Scheifele as the best player on the team.

Corsica thinks so too.
Corsica | WAR

 

[Jets4Life]

Tanev is now my favorite Winnipeg Jet player.

 

[Maukkis]

Edited thread title to avoid any confusion.

 

[Maukkis]

Going to refer to some work by analytics people. Tanev has been a ~2 GAR player so far this year. Not overly amazing for someone who plays quite a bit of minutes (8th most among forwards, and since this is an aggregate, players who have missed time are at a disadvantage), but I guess it could be worse... His ability to draw penalties remains an asset, as you could expect from a speedy skater like him. However, he brings really, really little to the table otherwise.

Some have pointed out his ~20-goal pace, but I'm still skeptical. He's shooting 13.3% this year - considerably higher than his career average of 9.5. Moreover, his possession numbers are still positive, but that seems to rely on the presences of Lowry or Copp. This was posted in another Tanev thread by some fine young Finnish gentleman; Tanev without 9 or 17 usually looks horrific, whereas Copp and Lowry do just fine without Tanev. Then we have this chart above, which tries to make sense of Tanev's individual impact on the ice, isolated from his linemates etc.:

Seems to fit the narrative quite well: Tanev's offensive capabilities are bad, and his success this year might not be the norm. However, he is able to help his team out on defense, so there is value in his body of work.

Ultimately, I believe that on a top contender, Tanev would play the role of a fourth liner who kills penalties and sees shutdown minutes. Having him on the third line is too much for my liking, seeing as more impactful players play lesser roles (mainly Appleton and Copp, and also Petan). Unfortunately, Tanev will never see that role on the Jets, and chances are he won't stay here anyway after this year.

 

[TheJadePipe]

View attachment 181649

Going to refer to some work by analytics people. Tanev has been a ~2 GAR player so far this year. Not overly amazing for someone who plays quite a bit of minutes (8th most among forwards, and since this is an aggregate, players who have missed time are at a disadvantage), but I guess it could be worse... His ability to draw penalties remains an asset, as you could expect from a speedy skater like him. However, he brings really, really little to the table otherwise.

Some have pointed out his ~20-goal pace, but I'm still skeptical. He's shooting 13.3% this year - considerably higher than his career average of 9.5. Moreover, his possession numbers are still positive, but that seems to rely on the presences of Lowry or Copp. This was posted in another Tanev thread by some fine young Finnish gentleman; Tanev without 9 or 17 usually looks horrific, whereas Copp and Lowry do just fine without Tanev. Then we have this chart above, which tries to make sense of Tanev's individual impact on the ice, isolated from his linemates etc.:

Seems to fit the narrative quite well: Tanev's offensive capabilities are bad, and his success this year might not be the norm. However, he is able to help his team out on defense, so there is value in his body of work.

Ultimately, I believe that on a top contender, Tanev would play the role of a fourth liner who kills penalties and sees shutdown minutes. Having him on the third line is too much for my liking, seeing as more impactful players play lesser roles (mainly Appleton and Copp, and also Petan). Unfortunately, Tanev will never see that role on the Jets, and chances are he won't stay here anyway after this year.

This is what drives me nuts about analytics. Tanev is a lot better than you illustrate, sometimes numbers and graphs don’t show the whole picture

 

[Maukkis]

This is what drives me nuts about analytics. Tanev is a lot better than you illustrate, sometimes numbers and graphs don’t show the whole picture

You're wrong, in that numbers and graphs literally never show the whole picture.

But, since we all have our opinions, do tell me what makes Tanev better than what I think.

 

[ffh]

You're wrong, in that numbers and graphs literally never show the whole picture.

But, since we all have our opinions, do tell me what makes Tanev better than what I think.

his usage by a nhl coach who has been one since he was 29. his play and what really counts more then graphs and charts his actual production. Maurice could have put cop on 2nd line yesterday but choose tanev instead there is more to it then the raw numbers.

 

[Ducky10]

Coming in here and knocking Tanev a day after he played a game like he did last night seems odd to me.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Coming in here and knocking Tanev a day after he played a game like he did last night seems odd to me.

And during a season where he has played quite well for us.

There will be a reason why Tanev will see a very solid raise in $$ next season, and will be coveted by a few teams. They are probably watching him play the games, opposed to looking at some heat graph or subjective statistic to determine his value.

 

[TheJadePipe]

You're wrong, in that numbers and graphs literally never show the whole picture.

But, since we all have our opinions, do tell me what makes Tanev better than what I think.

Does your graph illustrate how Tanev’s “peskiness” irritates and throws other teams top line players off their game? This always makes it easier to play opponents whom are in “tilt” mode.
How about the energy our whole team feeds off of? Unmeasurable but definitely there

 

[Ducky10]

And during a season where he has played quite well for us.

There will be a reason why Tanev will see a very solid raise in $$ next season, and will be coveted by a few teams. They are probably watching him play the games, opposed to looking at some heat graph or subjective statistic to determine his value.

I hope the kid gets paid, he's busted his ass to deserve it. I just hope the Jets don't fall into the trap of overvaluing him, mainly due to their situation of not really being able to afford it. Tanev at the right price is a no brainer.

 

[Gm0ney]

Yeah I don't think the Jets can afford Tanev next year. He will be paid handsomely by someone.

Too bad, though - this team is built for him.

 

[Spock]

And during a season where he has played quite well for us.

There will be a reason why Tanev will see a very solid raise in $$ next season, and will be coveted by a few teams. They are probably watching him play the games, opposed to looking at some heat graph or subjective statistic to determine his value.

I agree with your post.

Now just don't tell us the eye test is greater than statistics.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Yeah I don't think the Jets can afford Tanev next year. He will be paid handsomely by someone.

Too bad, though - this team is built for him.

He might choose to take less and stay. Remember, he chose Winnipeg over several other teams because he felt we would do the best job of developing him. He might continue to feel this team is best suited for him in the long run.

Tanev is this team's version of Dougie Smail!

 

[ffh]

I agree with your post.

Now just don't tell us the eye test is greater than statistics.

It absolutely is. The 3 biggest debates over the last few years. Petan dano tanev. Clean sweep for the eye test.
Edit. Soon to be 4-0 when lemieux becomes a regular

 

[Maukkis]

his usage by a nhl coach who has been one since he was 29. his play and what really counts more then graphs and charts his actual production. Maurice could have put cop on 2nd line yesterday but choose tanev instead there is more to it then the raw numbers.

Coaches are not infallible. Graphs and charts like the ones I posted literally illustrate what happens on the ice. Anything else?

Does your graph illustrate how Tanev’s “peskiness” irritates and throws other teams top line players off their game? This always makes it easier to play opponents whom are in “tilt” mode.
How about the energy our whole team feeds off of? Unmeasurable but definitely there

No. It's up to everyone to decide how much weight you put on intangibles.

Seeing that Tanev usually doesn't produce much offense, the impact probably is not that much at all.

 

[bustamente]

Every team needs a player like Tanev on there roster those that don't have one will be lining up at the end of the year, either he takes a team friendly deal to stay here or he take the money and term, I know what I would do

 

[Spock]

It absolutely is. The 3 biggest debates over the last few years. Petan dano tanev. Clean sweep for the eye test.
Edit. Soon to be 4-0 when lemieux becomes a regular

That is very human of you to say such a thing.

 

[angrymnky]

Coming in here and knocking Tanev a day after he played a game like he did last night seems odd to me.

What do you mean? That's praise from analytics types.
"Belongs on the fourth line" rather than doesn't belong on an nhl team at all? That's the best he'll get unless he scores the cup winning goal.

 

[Maukkis]

What do you mean? That's praise from analytics types.
"Belongs on the fourth line" rather than doesn't belong on an nhl team at all? That's the best he'll get unless he scores the cup winning goal.

Come on now.

I literally pointed out things Tanev is good at: defense and drawing penalties. Do they make him a middle 6 player? No, because his lack of offense is significant. Is he an effective NHLer? Yes, because you can assign him to a role in which he gets to play with his strengths.

He's overplayed as it is on the third line. That does not make him a third line quality player. On a checking fourth line, he would be pretty much all you could ask for.

 

[Ducky10]

What do you mean? That's praise from analytics types.
"Belongs on the fourth line" rather than doesn't belong on an nhl team at all? That's the best he'll get unless he scores the cup winning goal.

I'm not talking about the analytics types.

 

[sipowicz]

Come on now.

I literally pointed out things Tanev is good at: defense and drawing penalties. Do they make him a middle 6 player? No, because his lack of offense is significant. Is he an effective NHLer? Yes, because you can assign him to a role in which he gets to play with his strengths.

He's overplayed as it is on the third line. That does not make him a third line quality player. On a checking fourth line, he would be pretty much all you could ask for.

But somehow guys like Copp, Lowry and Roslo are so much more effective and all have less than half the goals or points Tanev has. Tanev is the type of player every team would love to have!

Tanev could be a cheaper version of the Knights Eakin!

 

[TheJadePipe]

Coaches are not infallible. Graphs and charts like the ones I posted literally illustrate what happens on the ice. Anything else?


No. It's up to everyone to decide how much weight you put on intangibles.

Seeing that Tanev usually doesn't produce much offense, the impact probably is not that much at all.

We don’t need Tanev to produce offence, we want him to play his role EXACTLY how he IS playing it..... diversity is the key.
TOm Brady is GOAT but do you think a team of Tom Brady’s could win one game? Nope.

 

[Maukkis]

We don’t need Tanev to produce offence, we want him to play his role EXACTLY how he IS playing it..... diversity is the key.
TOm Brady is GOAT but do you think a team of Tom Brady’s could win one game? Nope.

Do you believe our third line should include players who cannot produce offense? I don't think so. The NHL of today requires multiple scoring lines, and if your checking line plays significant minutes, there should be some offensive ability too. That is why I consider Tanev a valuable piece for a good fourth line; he could easily play his strict role there and still be a contributor, because offensive production is hardly expected from guys who play as little as most fourth lines do. Meanwhile, offensively gifted players could get his minutes and produce.