You know who else was an eye test guy. James tiberius Kirk. That's why you guys worked so well together. Just remember who the captain was .
Player Discussion: Brandon Tanev
- Thread starter kittiecarlyle
- Start date
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Please note: This GAR model is more descriptive (how much value Jets earned), and not predictive (how good the player is and will be)... although the two are related and correlate, they are not the same.
A higher rank does not make that person's opinions any greater than their inferiors. Ask American humans to elaborate if needed.
Ducky10
Searching for Mark Scheifele
- Nov 14, 2014
- 19,809
- 31,386
Michael Jordan was the GOAT , do you think a team of Michael Jordan's could win one game?
I have no answer, I just wanted to do an irrelevant sports analogy too.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
We don't need Tanev to produce offense... but *if* he hurts his linemates' offense more than he hurts his opponents' offense, is that a good trade off?
Also, hockey roles is not at all comparable to football, except maybe during PP.
we do need his offence and he isn't hurting his linemates offence. so therefore there is no trade off.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Uh... Okay...
Let's use just straight up goals since you are averse to what has been proven to be more effective in predicting future success...
And let's just simply look at how Tanev's linemates do with and without him, as opposed to what has been proven to be a superior method with regression methods such as RAPM which would also account for opponents, schedule, zone starts, etc.
TL;DR: let's just look at it simply...
For Tanev's linemates, the Jets score about half a goal (0.59) per hour less when they are skating with Tanev than they do without him.
Last edited:
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
^ Now for those that want more refined measures than that...
Over his career, Tanev hurts the Jets offense by about 0.12 xGoals per hour, but helps the Jets defense by about 0.11 xGoals per hour.
So over his career, the trade off has been against the Jets' favour... although not by much.
Just looking at this year, Tanev hurts the Jets offense by about 0.01 xGoals per hour, but helps the Jets defense by about 0.08 xGoals per hour.
So this season, Tanev has been far better offensively but weaker defensively. The trade off this season has been in the Jets' favour... although, again, not by much.
Over his career, Tanev hurts the Jets offense by about 0.12 xGoals per hour, but helps the Jets defense by about 0.11 xGoals per hour.
So over his career, the trade off has been against the Jets' favour... although not by much.
Just looking at this year, Tanev hurts the Jets offense by about 0.01 xGoals per hour, but helps the Jets defense by about 0.08 xGoals per hour.
So this season, Tanev has been far better offensively but weaker defensively. The trade off this season has been in the Jets' favour... although, again, not by much.
so the guy with the most goals on the bottom 6 and part time 2nd liner is holding them all back.
the undrafted player is being asked to play against some of the best wingers in hockey on most nights and still is on pace to score between 15-20 goals. a 3rd 4th liner playing against some of the most offensively gifted players in the world on most nights and the difference according to you is .01 worse defensively. I see why Maurice likes him.
edit: what would that gap be if he was playing against 3rd and 4th liners most nights.
Last edited:
It’s sad when someone realistically points out the strengths and shortcomings as a player, how many people rush in to say that they are “bashing” that player. And lord help you if you try to bring in a graph or chart to illustrate your point.
I admit that I have never been and never will be a fan of Tanev’s. There is a place for him in the NHL but any minutes beyond fourth line checking minutes are beyond his capabilities. And there really isn’t anything wrong with that. It isn’t a slight. When he was signed out of college, there was a minuscule chance he’d even be a capable NHLer in any capacity but just because reasonable people don’t believe he is anything beyond a replacement level fourth liner, doesn’t mean the pitchforks need to come out.
And yes, he’s on pace for 20 goals. He’s undeniably had an extremely lucky shooting season and whoever pays for that 20 goal season expecting it again will deeply regret it from essentially moment one. A guy like Tanev has value for exactly one reason: he’s cheap. Sure, I like his hustle and energy but that’s a lot less attractive after a raise.
I admit that I have never been and never will be a fan of Tanev’s. There is a place for him in the NHL but any minutes beyond fourth line checking minutes are beyond his capabilities. And there really isn’t anything wrong with that. It isn’t a slight. When he was signed out of college, there was a minuscule chance he’d even be a capable NHLer in any capacity but just because reasonable people don’t believe he is anything beyond a replacement level fourth liner, doesn’t mean the pitchforks need to come out.
And yes, he’s on pace for 20 goals. He’s undeniably had an extremely lucky shooting season and whoever pays for that 20 goal season expecting it again will deeply regret it from essentially moment one. A guy like Tanev has value for exactly one reason: he’s cheap. Sure, I like his hustle and energy but that’s a lot less attractive after a raise.
Thorburn was a part time second liner. Would you like him back? Where a coach chooses a play a player is irrelevant. Especially one like Maurice who has historically shown he prefers a certain type of player moving up in the lineup.
Look, I’m happy Tanev has scored so many goals this season. The more goals the Jets score the better. But ultimately, what we should all be more concerned about are the goals a player will score in the future and a guy shooting well above his career average shooting percentage who was never a particularly good scorer at the college level doesn’t all of a sudden become a great, or even good offensive player. These fluke career seasons happen. Often.
Not sure why? Not counting ELC's, he represents pretty close to the best $1.15 M spent on any player in the NHL. He is easily worth double that and has worked his way well past 4th line usage.
That’s really not the thing to take away from the post. I just feel like it’s important to state my opinion on the player when providing the reasons why.
And while he has worked past fourth line usage, the argument that his destructors, such as myself, would use is that he should have remained on fourth line usage. Though no fault of his own, that would be part of the reason I would say I’m not a fan of his.
I'd give the Tanev detractors more credit if they weren't also the ones raving about how good Dano and Petan are. Tanev has accomplished more tangible results than either of those guys.
You would need to be one hell of a deep team for Tanev to be pushed back to your 4th line. I'd love for it to be the case because we would then be primed for a big time cup run.
- Dec 29, 2016
- 7,269
- 13,030
What's not to like on the bottom six -
He's an under rated puck mover who never seems to have an problem carrying pucks out of his own end.
He's very good with the cycle along the boards and in corners - and knows how to make the best of his weight when he's throwing it around.
He also drives hard to the net or anywhere the puck is and is usually the first one there or the one coming out with it.
He's a fearless PK'er and is always out there for the first 30 seconds -
We haven't even talked about his speed yet and I don't even care about the goals - that's a bonus.
And you'll NEVER like him? Almost sounds personal - again, what's not to like.
TheJadePipe
Registered User
- Mar 8, 2016
- 1,094
- 858
So, you are of the mind set that Tanev isn’t performing well on the Jets, and we would be better off without him?
Yah maybe football analogy wasn’t the best train of thought
TheJadePipe
Registered User
- Mar 8, 2016
- 1,094
- 858
I think proof will be next year when other teams will pony up $ for Tanev.. The same teams that all passed on Dano for WW and the same teams that won’t offer anything more than a 7th overall pick for Petan (glad he is in the PB, I see nothing in his game I really like)
Seeing a lot of lipstick on a pig arguments for and against Tanev here.
DeepFrickinValue
Formally Ruffus
- May 14, 2015
- 5,323
- 4,238
Could he end up like a Dallas Drake? Long career never letting off the pedal.
The failures of Dano and/or Petan have absolutely no bearing on this issue. Despite the fact that Dano and Petan both play an entirely different game to Tanev, a reasonable argument could still be made that Tanev was afforded greater opportunity than both of them. Even if you say that Tanev is having a good year, which is fair, most people would agree that he struggled through his first couple seasons. Dano and Petan have been given opportunity, but not to the extent that even a less effective version of Tanev did.
Regardless, being wrong about the future success of a player does not preclude you from having an opinion on another.
It has to do with how serious someone should take your predictions.
If I said Laine was a bad player it doesn't matter what I have to say about any other player because then I'd just be wrong at least as far as anyone paying attention to my opinions would be. Who cares what I think bout Chariot if my starting position is Laine is bad.
I'm not sure saying that whoever pays Tanev is going to regret it is some grand and ridiculous prediction. Look, there are predictions that are ultimately wrong and there are predictions that are wrong and also ridiculous. Saying Tanev is playing in a role above his head you may disagree with but whether it's true or not, it's a reasonable argument that can at the very least be backed up with certain statistics. Using a person's previous opinions as an excuse to ignore their future ones is insane.
I wouldn't say ignore. I'd say measure with a grain of salt. I'll still listen to their opinions but with a degree of skepticism.
