Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk (LW) - Part VII

[Dan Patrick]

Can he though?

Assuming 8x9 was what he would have went for on a long term contract, that's 72 million.

Let's say be he goes for a 3x6 or 3x7 bridge deal, he would need to receive 51-54 million over the next 5 year contract...or 10-11 million a year.

Do people really think Brady will be a top 10-15 player in the whole league at every position??? I don't. I don't see that elite offense to get there.

Sorry I should have clarified I don't actually think he will make more money by doing this. I dont expect him to score more than 65 points over the next three seasons, so unless he leads the team to a Stanley cup finals appearance I think that leaves him signing for around 8 mil a year anyway when it's time.

This could also all still be part of negotiations, "give me a bonus/NMC contract or give me a short contract".

 

[IranCondraAffair]

You could kind of see it with his brother's quotes too, "Loves the city..etc.."

Just playing to the crowd while negotiating his way out.

 

[jbeck5]

It depends where he signs his next deal. For example, take these two scenarios:

Signs 8x8 in Ottawa: ~$29.8M take-home pay
Plays in Ottawa for next 4 seasons at $7M/season, then signs in Vegas for 4 years at $7M/season: ~29.6M take-home pay

Tkachuk won't have to sign for a much higher AAV, he'll just need to go to a low tax city.

Tax advantages are real, and in Ottawa, we're at a severe disadvantage (especially with no bonuses).

Oh, If were assuming he's being traded to a tax free state then sure. He can make much more with a bridge...but he could just ask for that trade mid long term contract too.

 

[branch]

It isn't personal, its just business. He'll make more if he gets a bridge, it isn't necessarily about not wanting to be in Ottawa.

Brady easily signs long term if he was in this situation while playing in a US metropolis.

 

[jbeck5]

I didn't talk about a five year freeze, I said the cap is expected to be pretty flat for a bit.

It's expected to rise next year. It will keep rising is my guess.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Not gonna lie I ain't going to enjoy Sens hockey much if Brady signs only long enough to fulfill his duties and GTFO as soon as possible. Another Dorion fail.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

It's amazing how quickly some of y'all will take the pitchforks out over a player doing what's best for them, but not keep that same energy when it comes time to hold the owner and management accountable.

 

[Micklebot]

Assuming 8x9 was what he would have went for on a long term contract, that's 72 million.

Why would anyone assume this? No team would ever have offered that, and nobody ever reported he was after something like that.

 

[branch]

Not gonna lie I ain't going to enjoy Sens hockey much if Brady signs only long enough to fulfill his duties and GTFO as soon as possible. Another Dorion fail.

Tkachuk family has no interest watching their baby boy be wasted in some Mickey Mouse Pierre Dorion/Eugene Melnyk Fever Dream (brought to you by Gabriel's Pizza)

 

[IranCondraAffair]

It isn't personal, its just business. He'll make more overall if he gets a bridge now and a huge contract later, it isn't necessarily about not wanting to be in Ottawa.

Let's not be naive here. He's on his way out. There is no world where he bridges in Ottawa and then stays longterm. If a top-5 pick in a small Canadian market bridges, they're pretty much gone.

Such is life, at least we know and can plan accordingly.

We need a team that wants to be here, not one with a foot out the door.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

It's expected to rise next year. It will keep rising is my guess.

It almost assuredly will be rising by even more in 3 years.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Oh, If were assuming he's being traded to a tax free state then sure. He can make much more with a bridge...but he could just ask for that trade mid long term contract too.

Ottawa doesn't have to accomodate a trade. Much easier for him to play it out for 4 years and become a UFA. Maybe we'll trade him after year 3 to a pit stop for one season before he gets to choose his destination.

If we want him to stay long-term, we have to make it worth his while, or at least mitigate the disadvantages of playing here. That's either: overpaying on AAV, or giving him a favorable structure with heavy bonuses.

It doesn't seem like we're willing to do either, which is fine, but we'll need to be comfortable with the fact that he's not going to be here past age 25-26.

In short - it looks like we'll have a 3 year window with Tkachuk. "Win" mode starts now.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Not gonna lie I ain't going to enjoy Sens hockey much if Brady signs only long enough to fulfill his duties and GTFO as soon as possible. Another Dorion fail.

I'm not going to blame Dorion/Melnyk on this one. The Tkachuk family is just as bad.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Let's not be naive here. He's on his way out. There is no world where he bridges in Ottawa and then stays longterm. If a top-5 pick in a small Canadian market bridges, they're pretty much gone.

Such is life, at least we know and can plan accordingly.

We need a team that wants to be here, not one with a foot out the door.

Maybe. If he wants out now, the best thing to do is to sign him now and get better and make him want to stay.

 

[bert]

Just as @BondraTime has been predicting would happen, which is sad. I am starting to think that we have been played by the Tkachuk camp to think that they were ever going to accept a long-term deal. It is starting to look more and more like a short-term deal was always their goal, but wanted to save it until the end to make it look like mutual resolution to get Brady back on the team a.s.a.p.

I feel like this has always been the plan. The sens offered 8 x 8 almost a month ago. Shouldn't take that long to hash out the particulars. I'd sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal max then go from there. Nothing in the 3 to 5 year range.

 

[BondraTime]

It's amazing how quickly some of y'all will take the pitchforks out over a player doing what's best for them, but not keep that same energy when it comes time to hold the owner and management accountable.

Don't think either side is at fault here.

Tkachuk wants what is best for him, don't blame him whatsoever for that. We all know that lies in UFA. Whatever he and his group think is best for him, do it.

Sens have done dick all to make the team better in the short run, but to be fair all of their contracts will be coming from within over the next 2/3 years. If Tkachuk doesn't want to buy in long term, (which is far from a certainty) nothing management does will matter regardless what they do.

Brady has friends here, this is his team, and he's being offered what is likely a big overpay. If he doesn't take that, which he's under no obligation to do, he is playing for UFA, as that is some great advantages Ottawa is giving him.

 

[Fandlauer]

He was never going to waste any of his UFA years here.

 

[cudi]

im no PD fan, but how is it his fault that Brady wont sign long term?? He can't hold a gun to his head and force him to sign a deal he doesn't want to sign.

 

[jbeck5]

It almost assuredly will be rising by even more in 3 years.

Yeah, it pretty much always rises. Nothing new..only covid halted that for a season and a half, and it's already rising again. That's why it doesn't really matter whether it's a 3 or 8 year deal, it will keep rising all of those years.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Maybe. If he wants out now the best thing to do is to sign him now and get better and make him want to stay.

Nope, you move him. Getting better and convincing him to stay is just setting yourself up for disappointment. I like Brady as much as the next guy, but if he's not willing to be here longterm so be it (I'll add the caveat that if Ottawa was lowballing him, I would blame management), but by all accounts they were being pretty fair.

 

[jbeck5]

Ottawa doesn't have to accomodate a trade. Much easier for him to play it out for 4 years and become a UFA. Maybe we'll trade him after year 3 to a pit stop for one season before he gets to choose his destination.

If we want him to stay long-term, we have to make it worth his while, or at least mitigate the disadvantages of playing here. That's either: overpaying on AAV, or giving him a favorable structure with heavy bonuses.

It doesn't seem like we're willing to do either, which is fine, but we'll need to be comfortable with the fact that he's not going to be here past age 25-26.

In short - it looks like we'll have a 3 year window with Tkachuk. "Win" mode starts now.

Statistically we'll have him during his best seasons and if he wants out in his late 20s, he can go to the highest bidder and we'll be thankful we don't have his bloated contract like Karlsson.

That's an ok scenario too. Try to win a cup in the next 4 years while all these guys will be in their prime.

 

[bert]

Not gonna lie I ain't going to enjoy Sens hockey much if Brady signs only long enough to fulfill his duties and GTFO as soon as possible. Another Dorion fail.

Don't you kinda feel like this is the fallout from the mismanagement, instability and losing culture. Which ultimately is on ownership. You reap what you sow, everything comes at a cost the sens are seeing it now.

I think if they show they are committed to winning he may commit. But I can't really blame him at this point. Signing Norris long term would potentially inspire confidence. If I was Brady I'd be disappointed they didn't add a legit top 4 d man. I'd also be wary of where the team is headed after walking Zub to UFA.

Maybe they meet in the middle at 6 years? Sens want 8 Brady probably wants 3 or 4.

 

[Daffy]

f*** it, if he'll only sign a bridge, trade him and whatever else to Vancouver for Pettersson, and try your luck with him.

 

[Fandlauer]

You could kind of see it with his brother's quotes too, "Loves the city..etc.."

Just playing to the crowd while negotiating his way out.

It was over when Keith said "they absolutely need to find away to sign this guy," re: Mark Stone, and then we proceeded to ship him to Vegas, watch him sign in less time than it takes to fry an egg, and get a, maybe, second pairing D in return.

 

[ToasterStutzle]

Here for my daily BT slander. Wasn’t disappointed.