Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk (LW) - Part VII

[supsens]

To me, part of it is those bigger deals tend to be signed later; Doughty, Karlsson, Burns, Panarin, Kane, Toews, Kopitar, Bobrovsky, Price, these guys got huge deals as UFA to be, and are all on the wrong side of 30 or getting close to it. Guys getting ~8 mil tend to be stars signing long term as RFA,


At the end of the day, if guys like Stützle, Pinto and Norris can justify 8-9 mil deals, we should be in pretty good shape. I don't buy the claim that just because Brady gets paid everybody else will get overpaid.

Of course they will, if they are putting up points and winning games they will want to be paid for what they bring if Brady gets 8 million for 50 points no way they take less for 65 points.
3x6 bridge and call it a day.

 

[senswon]

I don't think there'll be much heat on Brady to sign until he sits out and misses some regular season games and more importantly some pay checks.

Imo that's really the only ace the Pierres have in their collective pocket

 

[benjiv1]

FYI- I keep hearing that a 5 year deal is the fallback plan for the Sens if this lingers, but who knows on the Brady side.

Not getting great intel on Brady, so it’s all sort of been much of what’s already been reported.

 

[Flamingo]

FYI- I keep hearing that a 5 year deal is the fallback plan for the Sens if this lingers, but who knows on the Brady side.

Not getting great intel on Brady, so it’s all sort of been much of what’s already been reported.

IMO, if Tkachuk feels he can become a player worth more than the current long-term AAV offer, give him a 5-year deal, let him wear the C, and believe that this organization is on a path to keep it a desirable team to play for. Best case, Brady becomes the player he believes he can be and we pay him.

 

[Agent Zub]

I don't buy the claim that just because Brady gets paid everybody else will get overpaid.

It will make every contract negotiation that much tougher going forward.

If I was the agent of one of those players and I saw my client outproduce/outplay Brady I would sure as f*** ask for a higher contract for my client. And It wouldn't even be unjustified for me to do it (Unlike Brady's 8m off a 45 point career high).

Ignoring agents, If I worked somewhere and I was clearly better than another employee I would definitely want to be paid more than them. Wouldn't we all?

Contacts set precedent, around the league but even more directly on the same team.

Brady at 8m before having cracked 50 points and poor defensive play is an ugly precedent for team building.

 

[DaveMatthew]

It will make every contract negotiation that much tougher going forward.

If I was the agent of one of those players and I saw my client outproduce/outplay Brady I would sure as f*** ask for a higher contract for my client. And It wouldn't even be unjustified for me to do it (Unlike Brady's 8m off a 45 point career high).

Ignoring agents, If I worked somewhere and I was clearly better than another employee I would definitely want to be paid more than them. Wouldn't we all?

Contacts set precedent, around the league but even more directly on the same team.

Brady at 8m before having cracked 50 points and poor defensive play is an ugly precedent for team building.

And yet, Drake Batherson didn’t get much more than Colin White despite being a much better player.

The fear of precedents is overblown.

Matt Murray makes $6.25M. If Gustavsson makes the team full time next year and outplays him, will we have to pay him $7M? No.

By your logic, Mike Hoffman should’ve been asking for $8M when he played here because Bobby Ryan got $7.25M. But he didn’t. He signed for $5.1M.

 

[Micklebot]

It will make every contract negotiation that much tougher going forward.

If I was the agent of one of those players and I saw my client outproduce/outplay Brady I would sure as f*** ask for a higher contract for my client. And It wouldn't even be unjustified for me to do it (Unlike Brady's 8m off a 45 point career high).

Ignoring agents, If I worked somewhere and I was clearly better than another employee I would definitely want to be paid more than them. Wouldn't we all?

Contacts set precedent, around the league but even more directly on the same team.

Brady at 8m before having cracked 50 points and poor defensive play is an ugly precedent for team building.

There are 700+ precedents in the NHL, one precedent does not carry more weight than another based on which team they play for. We didn't overpay Batherson because White is overpaid, Batherstgot a fair deal based on comparables across the league. When Ryan got overpaid it didn't mean everybody got 7.25 or more.

Guys need to have leverage to get paid. Brady making more that you think he is worth isn't leverage if other teams don't agree with you. Guys need to have other options and if no team is willing to pay the more than Brady, then his contract doesn't do what you claim it will.

This is nothing more than fearmongering.

 

[TheDebater]

Exactly. Pinto/Norris would be seen as 1B. You can't lose them under any circumstance.

And with Brady at 8m it would inflate their contracts as well.

Brady at 8m for 60 points

Could mean

Pinto at 8m+
Stutzle at 9m+
Chabot at 8m
Norris at 8m+
Sanderson 8m+

Probably forced to lose guys like Zub or Paul or Formenton etc

Is this before or after we win a few cups?

Look, you have a reasonable long-term view of what could play out "if and if happens" but we cannot live life like that. Right now Brady is what he is and has the potential to be the best player on this team because of everything else he does. Points are not everything, I have noticed you use the term "out-produce" a few times but is that strictly points?

Heck Batherson can "out-produce" Brady this season and score more goals and points, but he will be paid (rumoured) 3 million less per year, why is that? I would take Brady over Batherson anyday, but that is no disrespect to the Bathman, it is simply because Tkachuk is such unique player that could be the difference between winning a cup and losing it.

 

[aragorn]

It will make every contract negotiation that much tougher going forward.

If I was the agent of one of those players and I saw my client outproduce/outplay Brady I would sure as f*** ask for a higher contract for my client. And It wouldn't even be unjustified for me to do it (Unlike Brady's 8m off a 45 point career high).

Ignoring agents, If I worked somewhere and I was clearly better than another employee I would definitely want to be paid more than them. Wouldn't we all?

Contacts set precedent, around the league but even more directly on the same team.

Brady at 8m before having cracked 50 points and poor defensive play is an ugly precedent for team building.

That is not the case in real life & it isn't the case in the NHL. I bet lots of people have had bosses they thought were morons & didn't deserve the pay or job they were in, it happens all the time for various reasons. Rookies can out produce vets, but are stuck with their ELC or a guy has his contract in place for a few yrs but they decide to give a younger guy more money when his production is less because they are paying for his potential in future. Life is messy, something works one day & it becomes obsolete the next day, one player is good today & replaced by someone the next day. Lots of injustice in the world financially & otherwise.

 

[jbeck5]

This is so insanely ridiculous that it probably doesn't warrant a response but these things need to be called out more often on here when it's just blatant.

Shane Pinto is a great prospect for this organization and one of my favourites. If you think Pinto is going to outproduce Brady knowing what we currently know, especially in the short-term, you're smoking something not even Canada would legalize.

If Pinto outproduces Brady, then yeah, he'll deserve big money because he'll be a 1st line center.

You talk about Brady like he's a big time producer.

Connor brown, drake batherson, rookie Josh Norris, and defenseman Thomas chabot all produced at the same pace as tkachuk. 18 year old stutzle wasn't that far off.

All these players have better wheels and could presumably score a lot more points off the rush than Brady.

I get the concern paying a 50 point player north of 8 million when you'll have stutzle outproducing him and a bunch of guys producing similarly that can all start to ask for 6-7 million fairly because they bring the same offense with 1-2 million less of intangibles.

 

[jbeck5]

Like I said: if Pinto outperforms Brady, he'll be a 1st line center. Then of course you have to pay him.

****in' lunacy.

Most 55-65 point centers are not considered first line centers.

How many 55 point centers make north of 8 million? Let alone wingers.

 

[jbeck5]

Sounds like a team of absolute studs if they all earn that kind of cash. Great problem to have.

Or we're overpaying all of them at those numbers by 1-2 million each including Brady.

 

[JD1]

To me, part of it is those bigger deals tend to be signed later; Doughty, Karlsson, Burns, Panarin, Kane, Toews, Kopitar, Bobrovsky, Price, these guys got huge deals as UFA to be, and are all on the wrong side of 30 or getting close to it. Guys getting ~8 mil tend to be stars signing long term as RFA,


At the end of the day, if guys like Stützle, Pinto and Norris can justify 8-9 mil deals, we should be in pretty good shape. I don't buy the claim that just because Brady gets paid everybody else will get overpaid.

I agree

The core locked at this price point thru their cores... If the core is good enough we're in good shape

 

[DaveMatthew]

You talk about Brady like he's a big time producer.

Connor brown, drake batherson, rookie Josh Norris, and defenseman Thomas chabot all produced at the same pace as tkachuk. 18 year old stutzle wasn't that far off.

All these players have better wheels and could presumably score a lot more points off the rush than Brady.

I get the concern paying a 50 point player north of 8 million when you'll have stutzle outproducing him and a bunch of guys producing similarly that can all start to ask for 6-7 million fairly because they bring the same offense with 1-2 million less of intangibles.

If guys like Norris, Pinto, etc develop as we hope, they'll be able to ask for $6-7M regardless of what Brady Tkachuk gets paid.

Agents use comparables from around the league, not just on the same team. I feel like a lot of people are still living in 2010. $6M doesn't get you what it used to. It gets you Timo Meier, Pavel Buchnevich, Brock Nelson, Cam Atkinson, Sam Reinhart, etc. All good players, but certainly not stars.

These guys will get paid no matter what, if they continue developing and producing. The entire league sets the market. Not Dorion and Melnyk.

 

[JD1]

Are the “training camp isn’t even close! If it’s not done by training camp I’ll be worried” crowd now saying “start of season isn’t even close! If it’s not done by start of season I’ll be worries!”?

I wasn't worried until Matthew shot his mouth off.. And his comments bothered me

 

[DaveMatthew]

Or we're overpaying all of them at those numbers by 1-2 million each including Brady.

You can afford to overpay the top of your roster.

You get into trouble when you overpay the bottom of your roster.

People freak at Toronto's cap situation. Did they overpay? Yeah, probably. But Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander will still get them into the playoffs, year in year out. Compare that to Vancouver, who overpaid the likes of Antoine Roussel, Jay Beagle, Brandon Sutter and Tyler Myers.

 

[jbeck5]

Is this before or after we win a few cups?

Look, you have a reasonable long-term view of what could play out "if and if happens" but we cannot live life like that. Right now Brady is what he is and has the potential to be the best player on this team because of everything else he does. Points are not everything, I have noticed you use the term "out-produce" a few times but is that strictly points?

Heck Batherson can "out-produce" Brady this season and score more goals and points, but he will be paid (rumoured) 3 million less per year, why is that? I would take Brady over Batherson anyday, but that is no disrespect to the Bathman, it is simply because Tkachuk is such unique player that could be the difference between winning a cup and losing it.

Isn't points by far the biggest factor in how much someone gets paid? More so than leadership or physicality or defensive ability??

Why did Heatley make a lot more than Fisher when Fisher was better at every single category(and one of the best in the league) other than offense?

I think we're overpaying for intangibles at 8+ mil for a 50 point player.

How much does tom Wilson make compared to Washington's top offensive producers?

How much did Lucic make compared to bostons top offensive producers?

Holmstrom was considered THE best netfront forward for a decade. Did he make bank compared to their top point producers?

History has shown that the Brady tkachuks don't make nearly as much as the stutzles or the chabots of the world... Were doing it differently though.

 

[Daffy]

Dreger just said Tkachuk and his agents are pushing for a short term, bridge deal.

 

[cudi]

Dreger just said Tkachuk and his agents are pushing for a short term, bridge deal.

 

[TheDebater]

Isn't points by far the biggest factor in how much someone gets paid? More so than leadership or physicality or defensive ability??

Why did Heatley make a lot more than Fisher when Fisher was better at every single category(and one of the best in the league) other than offense?

I think we're overpaying for intangibles at 8+ mil for a 50 point player.

How much does tom Wilson make compared to Washington's top offensive producers?

How much did Lucic make compared to bostons top offensive producers?

Holmstrom was considered THE best netfront forward for a decade. Did he make bank compared to their top point producers?

History has shown that the Brady tkachuks don't make nearly as much as the stutzles or the chabots of the world... Were doing it differently though.

Again, we have had this debate for months now (not you specifically but in general). Most of us (fans) and many expert sports analysts and writers believe Brady has plenty of room to grow before he hits his ceiling. Nobody wants to pay Tkachuk 8 million a year for his intangibles, we assume that we are paying him 8 million per year for his potential to be more than a 50 points winger with intangibles.

Most fans are hoping that Brady moving forward (this season and beyond) is at minimum a 60 points winger who leads the league in hits and continues to play an in your face style that makes life miserable for goalies and takes the opposing team's best players off their games because they are worried about being run every time he is on the ice.

Add to that most of us believe Brady Tkachuk is an awesome leader and a great teammate worthy of wearing the "C", and to me all of that is worth 8 million dollars a year.

We are not "okay" with paying Brady Tkachuk 8 million to be a 40 points player with intangibles, that would be disappointing.

 

[jbeck5]

You can afford to overpay the top of your roster.

You get into trouble when you overpay the bottom of your roster.

People freak at Toronto's cap situation. Did they overpay? Yeah, probably. But Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander will still get them into the playoffs, year in year out. Compare that to Vancouver, who overpaid the likes of Antoine Roussel, Jay Beagle, Brandon Sutter and Tyler Myers.

I don't see either examples as how to build a team tbh.
Toronto didn't even make the playoffs in 2019-2020. They are very shallow. They remind me of a worse pizza line sens team. The one that was on its last legs of being a good team due to having no depth because it was all tied up in one line.

 

[Agent Zub]

And yet, Drake Batherson didn’t get much more than Colin White despite being a much better player.

The fear of precedents is overblown.

Matt Murray makes $6.25M. If Gustavsson makes the team full time next year and outplays him, will we have to pay him $7M? No.

By your logic, Mike Hoffman should’ve been asking for $8M when he played here because Bobby Ryan got $7.25M. But he didn’t. He signed for $5.1M.

Colin White was coming off a 45 point season and looked like a 2nd line player in his rookie season. So it would make sense that a similar Batherson season would get the same.

The problem with Brady at big money is that we're paying him for the assumption that he might hit 65+ numbers.

The other players if they actually hit 65+ before ELC expiry will have the leverage of not only having the actual production but also the their future output. These players will also be in high demand around the league so if the Senators make bad offers they have more incentive to sign bridge deals.

And I would further argue that Ryan and Murray were complimentary players, just like Brady. You don't make these players the highest paid on your roster.

Ryans high salary sank the team. We paid elite money for non elite play. Did we not learn our lesson?

 

[Micklebot]

I get the concern paying a 50 point player north of 8 million when you'll have stutzle outproducing him and a bunch of guys producing similarly that can all start to ask for 6-7 million fairly because they bring the same offense with 1-2 million less of intangibles.

So, Brady who is 22 and score 55 in his last 82 games is forever more a 50 pts player? I get the sentiment that we might be overpaying Tkachuk at 8 mil, but he's likely to continue to grow as a player, he's already more than a 50 pts player, and could have very easily topped 60 pts pace last year if the team had a functional PP instead of forcing Dadonov into the first unit all season.

 

[Guy Larose]

 

[jbeck5]

So, Brady who is 22 and score 55 in his last 82 games is forever more a 50 pts player? I get the sentiment that we might be overpaying Tkachuk at 8 mil, but he's likely to continue to grow as a player, he's already more than a 50 pts player, and could have very easily topped 60 pts pace last year if the team had a functional PP instead of forcing Dadonov into the first unit all season.

I guess I'm going off the assumption that he rejected 8 million a year and isn't close to that number or else he probably would have come down by now.

If we're paying 9 million for a 60 point forward...how much are we paying for intangibles??

Fisher would be near the league in hits, often produced at at 50-60 point pace per 82, was much better defensively than Brady, and was also seen as a top leader in the league. Are you saying because Brady is 1-2 inches taller than Fisher, but similar weight, we should pay him way more than Fisher??? Also Fisher was a center and more versatile.