Man I can’t find it anywhere to post but I remember reading an article last year about Brady and how he has exceeded every expectation since being drafted from an analytic perspective.
He’s producing a NHLe of over 7 as an over-ager year one. He then went on to become a line driver with top five shots, high danger scoring opportunities and hits in the entire league - without Stone.
Radek Faksa was the last over age prospect to be a statistical anomaly but Brady is blowing by those goalposts.
I'm not exactly sure what you mean by over-ager, but yeah, he is an anomaly. Basically, here is how it goes:
Brady was really old for his draft
Brady did not produce much in his draft year (mid 20 NHLe)
Mid 20 NHLe players make the NHL about 50% of the time, and they are very rarely star players.
About 10 players in the last 30 years have produced an NHLe like Tkachuk and played in the NHL in D+1...some of these players were playing pro hockey, like Nichushkin.
Just based on the above, we should have expected Brady to struggle a bit in the NHL, but he drops 40+ points. Oh, then he does it again without Mark Stone.
Players that produce like Brady did so early on become stars at a very high rate (17/23 or 74%)
Tkachuk is the only person to hit his NHL numbers so earlier without breaking a 30 NHLe before he hit the NHL. Additionally, factor in that Tkachuk was an older player, and no player really looks like him based on statistical models.