Blues Trade Proposals Part XXV

[KirkOut]

It's not a good trade man. Now we're even adding a first rounder? Pietrangelo is way too important to the team to subtract him without definitely adding some major help up front. RNH is a secondary piece, and a big maybe is just that

 

[EastonBlues22]

Oh if the mains only understood this

The lesson is plain for anyone who cares to see it. For all the highly touted draftees that meet or exceed expectations, there are plenty who don't. RNH, Yakupov, Mackinnon, Galchenyuk, Jones, Huberdeau, Landeskog, etc.

There's a lot of good NHL players in that group, but no elite ones (at least not yet). All were considered untouchables at one point on here because of their potential. If they still are, it's probably not because of their raw production is living up to that potential. (That is, they would be "untouchable" for financial reasons, or because of organizational need.)

How many teams trade their #1 D for a low end #1 center and (we'll assume) a productive top 6 winger? Not many, and probably not without some pretty compelling reasons (financial complications, off-ice/attitude problems, clear team can't re-sign/extend him, etc.).

Finding a #1 D is pretty hard. Finding one on the right side is arguably even harder. Finding low end #1 centers and productive top 6 wingers? Not so much.

Fans like offense, though, and they love goals. Organizations most likely see things through a different lens.

 

[Spektre]

The one thing that's apparent is we all pretty much agree Shattenkirk is the odd man out. I would think that is solely based on what he will command as a UFA and he'd be the Blues 2nd pairing.

So Backes walks (hopefully).

What are your realistic expectations in a deal around Shattenkirk?

Schwartz Lehtera Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Fabbri
X Berglund Jaskin
X X Reaves

That is the Blues' current signed forwards for next season.

They need a Center playing with Schwartz and Tarasenko that those two don't have to carry. The 2nd line is fine. That 3rd line is a disaster. The 4th line should be easy enough to fill.

If they wind up packaging Jaskin + Shattenkirk that's another hole to fill.

 

[Vladdy the Impaler]

The one thing that's apparent is we all pretty much agree Shattenkirk is the odd man out. I would think that is solely based on what he will command as a UFA and he'd be the Blues 2nd pairing.

So Backes walks (hopefully).

What are your realistic expectations in a deal around Shattenkirk?

Schwartz Lehtera Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Fabbri
X Berglund Jaskin
X X Reaves

That is the Blues' current signed forwards for next season.

They need a Center playing with Schwartz and Tarasenko that those two don't have to carry. The 2nd line is fine. That 3rd line is a disaster. The 4th line should be easy enough to fill.

If they wind up packaging Jaskin + Shattenkirk that's another hole to fill.

Armstrong's failures with roster construction are beginning to become more and more evident.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Maybe Edm adds a 2016 2nd?


I don't quite understand a lot of people's disdain for RNH. He's not Lemieux but even currently I rank him over Stastny. Laine is 6' 4'' 210lbs & Puljujärvi is right at 6' 3'' 200lbs. Both of those players are going to be Tarasenko-esque (my opinion).

There's almost 0 chance RNH has hit his prime. Even if you want to say his ceiling is 65-70pts I'll buy that but he's also a very sound 2 way player.

Here's the facts concerning the Blues as it stands going into next year. Your top two centers are Lehtera & Stastny. Coming in at a scary #3 is Berglund. We all give Berglund crap but he would be a decent #3 behind a true #1 and #2 Center, such as McDavid & Draisaitl. But following Lehtera & Stastny, Berglund is almost more of the same just a rung below.

Who wants to roll with those 3 centers next year? *crickets*


If and I know it's an if, but if I'm correct about Puljujärvi & Laine think of the deal in these terms. Pietrangelo + 1st + Berglund for a bigger version of Tarasenko + RNH (+ 2016 2nd)

I hope that at least helps to see how I'm valuing that deal. If you think of it in those terms does that sway your opinion?


Regardless if you agree or disagree this team most likely is going to look quite a bit different next year. Even a signed Shattenkirk isn't bringing back a haul like that.

You could roll with:

Schwartz RNH Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Fabbri
(Laine,Puljujarvi) Lehtera Jaskin
Upshall Brodziak Reaves

J-Bow Shattenkirk
X (or Edmundson) Parayko
(Lindbohm/Walman) (Bortuzzo/Schmaltz)


The Blues are stocked with defensive prospects. It would be time to get some feet wet.

I would imagine they'll at minimum sign a LHD that can play 2nd pairing. They might even bring Gunnarsson back.

Either way, I'm willing to bet apples to oranges that this:

Schwartz RNH Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Fabbri
(Laine,Puljujarvi) Lehtera Jaskin

is a far better top 9 then the Blues roll out next year.

That's likely where you're meeting a disconnect with many of those who disagree.

There's nothing wrong with wanting to upgrade the center situation, but trading your #1 D to incrementally upgrade it is not a good plan. Banking on Laine or Puljujarvi becoming impact wingers is also not a good plan, at least at the cost of a #1 D. You might think they'll be "Tarasenko-esque" at the NHL level, and perhaps they will, but there's also a pretty good chance they won't be.

We're ignoring things like salary cap implications. Teams covet productive players on ELCs in this salary cap reality, which tends to make them fairly immovable trade pieces for most organizations...even if their on-ice production doesn't really justify that status yet. I'm sure the Blues wouldn't mind another productive ELC, but they aren't going to over-value that asset like a team in bigger financial trouble would.

Besides, if cap relief is a significant factor in your decision to move your #1 D, then I'd argue that something, somewhere, has gone horribly awry in the decision making process.

 

[EastonBlues22]

The one thing that's apparent is we all pretty much agree Shattenkirk is the odd man out. I would think that is solely based on what he will command as a UFA and he'd be the Blues 2nd pairing.

So Backes walks (hopefully).

What are your realistic expectations in a deal around Shattenkirk?

Schwartz Lehtera Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Fabbri
X Berglund Jaskin
X X Reaves

That is the Blues' current signed forwards for next season.

They need a Center playing with Schwartz and Tarasenko that those two don't have to carry. The 2nd line is fine. That 3rd line is a disaster. The 4th line should be easy enough to fill.

If they wind up packaging Jaskin + Shattenkirk that's another hole to fill.

Don't forget Sobotka, who likely slides into the 3rd line somewhere.

Berglund-Sobotka-Jaskin on your 3rd line isn't awe-inspiring, but it's not a disaster, either.

I don't think that it's a given that Backes will walk. If the Blues don't find something better to spend their cap space on, he'll likely get a significant offer. It might not be his best offer, but it will probably be competitive. Eriksson could get an offer as well. Who knows how things will shake out, but I don't think the Blues just sit on their hands/spare cap space. Dealing Berglund for some additional space to use on a better player is certainly a possibility as well.

If you're going to deal someone like Shattenkirk, the smart thing to do would be to: 1) Wait until we know who our new coach is and what the new plan is. 2) Wait to see how things develop with Backes and/or whatever significant FAs we have interest in so we know what our cap situation is and what holes we have to fill. 3) Try to extend Shattenkirk first, preferably with a limited or delayed NTC. Full NTCs are usually a concession granted in exchange for slightly less money or more term, but if the plan is to deal him those don't matter quite as much.

An extended Shattenkirk is going to have a significant market, period. Shop around for the best deal. If you can't extend him, things get a bit more complicated. What happens next depends on why you couldn't extend him.

 

[Blanick]

Oh man the Parayko threads are starting to pop up everywhere on the main trade board. I secretly hoped this day would never come. Sigh

 

[Dbrownss]

Draisaitl+1 of the Finns
Or
Rnh+Matthews


That's what I would require for Pietrangelo, if the Blues have to add something non critical, so be it.

If Edmonton scoffs, oh well. Neither Shattenkirk or Pietrangelo have to be moved. We can hope Fabbri can be a legit top 6 center.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Draisaitl+1 of the Finns
Or
Rnh+Matthews


That's what I would require for Pietrangelo, if the Blues have to add something non critical, so be it.

If Edmonton scoffs, oh well. Neither Shattenkirk or Pietrangelo have to be moved. We can hope Fabbri can be a legit top 6 center.

I much prefer that second package to the first, and I suspect that Edmonton fans would loathe parting with the second package much more as well.

I really do think this is a fantasy-land discussion, though. I don't think there's any real chance the Blues are going to seriously explore trading Pietrangelo, and I don't think there's any real chance that Edmonton would consider moving two assets of that quality (much less in the same deal). I don't think whoever lands Matthews will move him at all.

People need to think smaller.

 

[Dbrownss]

I much prefer that second package to the first, and I suspect that Edmonton fans would loathe parting with the second package much more as well.

I really do think this is a fantasy-land discussion, though. I don't think there's any real chance the Blues are going to seriously explore trading Pietrangelo, and I don't think there's any real chance that Edmonton would consider moving two assets of that quality (much less in the same deal). I don't think whoever lands Matthews will move him at all.

People need to think smaller.

Oh I agree, but the Shattenkirk to Edmonton is too painful to keep going through.

Oddly enough the idea I get from Edm fans, the 1st package seems to be more painful then the 2nd package.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Oh I agree, but the Shattenkirk to Edmonton is too painful to keep going through.

Oddly enough the idea I get from Edm fans, the 1st package seems to be more painful then the 2nd package.

The shine has worn off RNH for them and they're still in love with the idea of a PPG (or near it) Draisaitl. Most of them probably don't see much difference between Matthews and one of the Fins at this point.

If they aren't saying that now, I think they'll be singing a different tune in another year.

 

[Dbrownss]

The shine has worn off RNH for them and they're still in love with the idea of a PPG (or near it) Draisaitl. Most of them probably don't see much difference between Matthews and one of the Fins at this point.

If they aren't saying that now, I think they'll be singing a different tune in another year.

If we focus on Shattenkirk's return. What do you think is realistic?

 

[EastonBlues22]

If we focus on Shattenkirk's return. What do you think is realistic?

Extended, or as he currently is?

Two very different conversations.

 

[Dbrownss]

Extended, or as he currently is?

Two very different conversations.

Which is more likely? I would think a team would rather spend less assets without an extention.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Which is more likely? I would think a team would rather spend less assets without an extention.

If you're asking me to climb inside Armstrong's head, that's a tough ask. I don't find that I'm intuitively on the same page with him very often.

Shattenkirk as a short term rental (as he is now) is a mixed bag. He's going to hold significant value to a subset of buyers. They aren't moving core pieces for him, though, so you need the right futures coming back. If that was the plan, then this past deadline was probably the time to deal him since two playoff runs is obviously more valuable than one. Right now he's probably worth a pretty good prospect, a mid-late 1st, and an expendable NHL player from a contender. I suppose it depends on the prospect, but I wouldn't be particularly excited by that return.

I think if you're holding out any hopes for a hockey trade or a blue-chip prospect, and I would be, then you probably need to extend him first. A Shattenkirk under long-term team control at a reasonable price (ballpark $6 million) is going to be worth something nice to someone. You can't quite name your price, but a blue-chipper or equivalent (i.e. impact) NHL player should be in play if you find a team with a need for him and depth to deal from.

There are a lot of teams out there who need quality RH PMDs. Shouldn't be too hard to find an organization to match up with.

 

[Spektre]

Don't forget Sobotka, who likely slides into the 3rd line somewhere.

Berglund-Sobotka-Jaskin on your 3rd line isn't awe-inspiring, but it's not a disaster, either.

I have a hard time putting faith in the return of Sobotka until I see it. I'm just guessing here but I think if he does come back it's to get dealt to another team. I think the bridge burned between he and Army.

Even if he comes back and plays here, you're left with the following roster.


Schwartz Lehtera Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Fabbri
Jaskin Sobotka Berglund
X X Reaves


I'll get on board if you want to say that roster is decent. That's my ceiling though for a compliment. I'd feel less confident about that team going into the year then this year. This year going in I thought there was a chance the Blues miss the playoffs due to the fact of having a lame duck coach.

Lehtera should be the 3rd C not the first. There's just no getting around that. Ughhh at the thought of that roster.

Last year it was:

Steen Backes Oshie
Schwartz Lehtera Tarasenko
Jaskin Stastny Berglund

We're regressing the top 9 every year.

The biggest problem with this:

Schwartz Lehtera Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Fabbri
Jaskin Sobotka Berglund

isn't just next year. It would be borderline disaster going forward. In 2017 Steen & Berglund are UFA's. The next year is Stastny's turn. A major shakeup "should" happen this off season not just for next year's sake but for the long term health of the organization. The icing on the cake is Sobotka only owes the Blues 1 year @ $2.725 million then he's a UFA as well.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Well, you're assuming things are only leaving and never coming back in. Of course that leads to a pretty gloomy scenario...and it's not one that trading Shattenkirk fixes, as the equivalent value he returns doesn't compensate for the talent walking out the door.

I don't have tons of faith in Armstrong, but I'm pretty confident that he's not going to simply let the roster erode without trying to retain or add whatever he can.

The job of a contending GM spending to the cap is relatively simple. You keep your best talent, and whatever good talent you can afford. You trade whatever good talent that you can't afford to keep for the best futures/prospects you can get without completely compromising your roster. If you have to retool, don't half-ass it.

 

[Dbrownss]

If you're asking me to climb inside Armstrong's head, that's a tough ask. I don't find that I'm intuitively on the same page with him very often.

Shattenkirk as a short term rental (as he is now) is a mixed bag. He's going to hold significant value to a subset of buyers. They aren't moving core pieces for him, though, so you need the right futures coming back. If that was the plan, then this past deadline was probably the time to deal him since two playoff runs is obviously more valuable than one. Right now he's probably worth a pretty good prospect, a mid-late 1st, and an expendable NHL player from a contender. I suppose it depends on the prospect, but I wouldn't be particularly excited by that return.

I think if you're holding out any hopes for a hockey trade or a blue-chip prospect, and I would be, then you probably need to extend him first. A Shattenkirk under long-term team control at a reasonable price (ballpark $6 million) is going to be worth something nice to someone. You can't quite name your price, but a blue-chipper or equivalent (i.e. impact) NHL player should be in play if you find a team with a need for him and depth to deal from.

There are a lot of teams out there who need quality RH PMDs. Shouldn't be too hard to find an organization to match up with.

What would be the insensitive for the buying GM to acquire Shattenkirk after he's extended? I would assume these guys have a good grasp on the odds of him resigning. Wouldn't they risk the cheaper rental price and then extend him? Unless army is going to sign and trade him, that would be a **** move

 

[EastonBlues22]

What would be the insensitive for the buying GM to acquire Shattenkirk after he's extended? I would assume these guys have a good grasp on the odds of him resigning. Wouldn't they risk the cheaper rental price and then extend him? Unless army is going to sign and trade him, that would be a **** move

It all depends on the organization.

If it's someplace like Boston where he has strong ties, then maybe they're willing to take that risk. If it's someplace like Edmonton, then not so much.

Generally speaking, team control of an asset is a big deal. Nobody wants to give up something they value and control long-term for something they value but don't control long-term. It's an unnecessary risk.

Getting something you value for short-term prices and re-signing him to a long-term deal is the dream, but that relies on Amstrong giving away (what should obviously be considered) a long-term asset for short-term prices, which in part relies on nobody else offering something better.

Someone should offer something better. Even if nobody else does, Armstrong will have to play his hand very poorly to back himself into that corner.

 

[carter333167]

Completely agree that prospect and 1st round picks are overvalued on the mains. Of course, the mains are dominated now by Oiler and Leaf's fans fishing for a #1 D-Man to pull them out of the cellar...they just don't want to pay for them.

Lost in all of the garbage talk on the mains is that the dominant SC teams have been led by Doughty and Keith. You could have all the Kopis and Toews in the world but they aren't winning the SC without a dominant 1D. Heck, Edmonton will be proof positive of this point in the near future and I have a feeling that McDavid will make them pay dearly with his first non-ELC contract if they don't add a 1D to pull themselves from the cellar.

Petro is not as great as Doughty but we are lucky to have him. Parayko looks to have insane potential so you need to wait and see on him....he could be the answer for us. We simply can't deal Parayko without incurring the risk that it could be one of the most regrettable trades ever made by the Blues. I already think he is our second best D-Man.

Regarding dealing Petro, the only chips held by Edm that make sense (excluding McDavid obviously) are Hall or the top 5 pick plus (which is a bit risky for us). The guy we get better have similar or better potential as a D-man (LHD) or be a forward with an absolute floor of .8 ppg and ceiling of 1 ppg plus.

Shatty should net a very solid first liner though probably not a ppg guy. A Shatty package might allow us to move to the very top of the draft however...there are probably some creative ways to maximize the return on Shatty but DA will have to be at his best. I guess Shatty might have gotten us RyJo but nott really sure what I think about him.

 

[carter333167]

What would be the insensitive for the buying GM to acquire Shattenkirk after he's extended? I would assume these guys have a good grasp on the odds of him resigning. Wouldn't they risk the cheaper rental price and then extend him? Unless army is going to sign and trade him, that would be a **** move

I would assume that any team trading us what we want for Shatty would demand at least an understanding as to the extension price. Shatty will need to be a participant in any trade talks for us to get great value for him...otherwise it's just rental value.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

I think it's a waste of time to map out Pietro trades. I don't see Armstrong even considering it.

Meanwhile Shattenkirk has been credibly rumored more than once, and Parayko's emergence makes him expendable. It would be better to keep Parayko on his right side. I really don't like the plan of a young player with his ceiling having his development complicated by moving him to his off side.

I'm looking for an offseason trade of Shattenkirk with the main piece coming back to be a top 6 forward. Detroit and Vancouver are obvious trade partners. Between the pending free agents and reasonably available players, it's a good time to be dealing RHD.

I expect Backes probably walks and that its for the best. However if the cap contracts the free agents are probably going to have a hard time finding teams with the cap space to meet their expectations. That 5.5m offer might end up being close to what he winds up with anyway.

 

[SirPaste]

What top 6 forward from Vancouver would you be looking for?

 

[carter333167]

I think it's a waste of time to map out Pietro trades. I don't see Armstrong even considering it.

Meanwhile Shattenkirk has been credibly rumored more than once, and Parayko's emergence makes him expendable. It would be better to keep Parayko on his right side. I really don't like the plan of a young player with his ceiling having his development complicated by moving him to his off side.

I'm looking for an offseason trade of Shattenkirk with the main piece coming back to be a top 6 forward. Detroit and Vancouver are obvious trade partners. Between the pending free agents and reasonably available players, it's a good time to be dealing RHD.

I expect Backes probably walks and that its for the best. However if the cap contracts the free agents are probably going to have a hard time finding teams with the cap space to meet their expectations. That 5.5m offer might end up being close to what he winds up with anyway.

Completely agree about getting Parayko permanently on the right side.

As for Shatty, I think we aggressively shop him for the best package available. If he doesn't retrun a roster top three forward, we probably would be better pivoting to top three'ish prospects, stud propsect LHD or draft picks (maybe move up to top 5 in this years draft). We don't need another 4-6 forward--we need someone at least on Schwartz's level and hopefully better.

We could add Lehtera to the extent that helped return a true first liner. In any case, the best value for us may be in prospects, picks and moving up in the draft-- which wouldn't be all bad.

 

[Stealth JD]

i want a young top-4 LHD coming back in any Shatty deal...plus