Blues Trade Proposals 2018-2019 - Part VI

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Why are we concluding he ‘obviously’ went the wrong route? Would he be NHL ready for next season if he played junior or something? He only went the ‘wrong’ route because he is playing with men and everyone around here raised their expectations and are overreacting now.

I always find it interesting when we make a draft pick in June and inevitably people chime in that this guy won’t he NHL ready for 3-4 years (This was said about Bokk most recently) and all I can think about is all the people who will be ready to sell in 2 years.

Can we not learn that we have NO idea? We like to think we do but then we overreact and want to sell Pietro and Tarasenko for a bad half season or want to dump Sundqvist for nothing after his first full year in the NHL. We have no idea about NHL players. Why are we getting all matter of fact about a 19 year old in the AHL?

 

[Ranksu]

If I had to guess it was the predraft hype and him falling to 31.

Hell look at Tolvenen...supposed to be the next Tarasenko or better.......yea...bout that.

Tolvanen is raw as hell. Maybe in 2-years he can develope to ready för NHL.

He got toolbox and hockey IQ to success. Just need to mature.

 

[Dbrownss]

Tolvanen is raw as hell. Maybe in 2-years he can develope to ready för NHL.

He got toolbox and hockey IQ to success. Just need to mature.

That's my point. Cant give up on talented players because they dont hit the ground running

 

[Blueston]

Kostin is different than most players his age in that he is physically mature. This isn’t case of needing to get stronger to play with men. On the contrary, he dominates his age peers since he is stronger but when forced to play against men he lacks physical advantage and doesn’t have enough other skill to rise above. Might he develop? Certainly. But 2 years in concern is he looks like he wI’ll struggle to rise to Jaskin or Carrier level let alone be impact player.

 

[Dbrownss]

Kostin is different than most players his age in that he is physically mature. This isn’t case of needing to get stronger to play with men. On the contrary, he dominates his age peers since he is stronger but when forced to play against men he lacks physical advantage and doesn’t have enough other skill to rise above. Might he develop? Certainly. But 2 years in concern is he looks like he wI’ll struggle to rise to Jaskin or Carrier level let alone be impact player.

He most certainly does have the skill and body to dominate. But he may not be mentally mature enough to do it. Look at Parayko, he's 6yrs older and I'm just now starting to see him use his body.

I remember either Bill Armstrong or the SA coach/GM saying they are developing these guys, they are teaching them. If they just wanted production out of them, we'd see it.

 

[Blueston]

He most certainly does have the skill and body to dominate. But he may not be mentally mature enough to do it. Look at Parayko, he's 6yrs older and I'm just now starting to see him use his body.

I remember either Bill Armstrong or the SA coach/GM saying they are developing these guys, they are teaching them. If they just wanted production out of them, we'd see it.

I hope I am wrong. Would love for him to become impact player for us, just think it unlikely. He was always high risk pick and sometimes they don’t pan out.

 

[TK 421]

Why are we concluding he ‘obviously’ went the wrong route? Would he be NHL ready for next season if he played junior or something? He only went the ‘wrong’ route because he is playing with men and everyone around here raised their expectations and are overreacting now.

I always find it interesting when we make a draft pick in June and inevitably people chime in that this guy won’t he NHL ready for 3-4 years (This was said about Bokk most recently) and all I can think about is all the people who will be ready to sell in 2 years.

Can we not learn that we have NO idea? We like to think we do but then we overreact and want to sell Pietro and Tarasenko for a bad half season or want to dump Sundqvist for nothing after his first full year in the NHL. We have no idea about NHL players. Why are we getting all matter of fact about a 19 year old in the AHL?

I'll bite on this one.

Kostin played like 30 games his draft year spread out over I believe 3 teams.

He gets drafted, informs the Blues he'd like to come over immediately, but then personally insists on playing in the AHL at 18 which players just simply don't do typically, especially when they're transitioning not only to a new country but to a different style of hockey.

He had an option to play junior at 18 which would have not only made his transition to NA hockey easier, it would have allowed him to acclimate and grow much more quickly than against multi year pros where he was mostly in over his head playing fewer minutes and getting less time to develop. That's why it was the wrong route. You don't tackle all that at once and someone with more experience should have told him he's young, stupid and in this case wrong to insist on playing in the AHL at 18 in false hopes that he'd be an NHLer by now(quotes are out there, Kostin was very certain he'd be playing NHL by now). Now he may since have revised that opinion publicly but at the beginning of both offseasons he's been here he talked about making the NHL both times and not just in some in-the-future off hand manner. So this is a player that clearly viewed himself as being close and the reality is very different.

Btw I agree I wouldn't sell on him just out of the blue, we were discussing Kostin potentially getting frustrated based on how he views where he should be playing. This particular player could make big money in Russia while getting big minutes and so he could at some point make the decision himself.

I personally don't agree with Blueston about trading him because the AHL isn't exactly stocked with 19 year olds either and this player was always a project from the time we drafted him.

 

[TK 421]

Why are we concluding he ‘obviously’ went the wrong route? Would he be NHL ready for next season if he played junior or something? He only went the ‘wrong’ route because he is playing with men and everyone around here raised their expectations and are overreacting now.

I always find it interesting when we make a draft pick in June and inevitably people chime in that this guy won’t he NHL ready for 3-4 years (This was said about Bokk most recently) and all I can think about is all the people who will be ready to sell in 2 years.

Can we not learn that we have NO idea? We like to think we do but then we overreact and want to sell Pietro and Tarasenko for a bad half season or want to dump Sundqvist for nothing after his first full year in the NHL. We have no idea about NHL players. Why are we getting all matter of fact about a 19 year old in the AHL?

I'll bite on this one.

Kostin played like 30 games his draft year spread out over I believe 3 teams.

He gets drafted, informs the Blues he'd like to come over immediately, but then personally insists on playing in the AHL at 18 which players just simply don't do typically, especially when they're transitioning not only to a new country but to a different style of hockey.

He had an option to play junior at 18 which would have not only made his transition to NA hockey easier, it would have allowed him to acclimate and grow much more quickly than against multi year pros where he was mostly in over his head playing fewer minutes and getting less time to develop. That's why it was the wrong route. You don't tackle all that at once and someone with more experience should have told him he's young, stupid and in this case wrong to insist on playing in the AHL at 18 in false hopes that he'd be an NHLer by now(quotes are out there, Kostin was very certain he'd be playing NHL by now). Now he may since have revised that opinion publicly but at the beginning of both offseasons he's been here he talked about making the NHL both times and not just in some in-the-future off hand manner. So this is a player that clearly viewed himself as being close and the reality is very different.

Btw I agree I wouldn't sell on him just out of the blue, we were discussing Kostin potentially getting frustrated based on how he views where he should be playing. This particular player could make big money in Russia while getting big minutes and so he could at some point make the decision himself.

I personally don't agree with Blueston about trading him because the AHL isn't exactly stocked with 19 year olds either and this player was always a project from the time we drafted him.

 

[Frenzy31]

I thought Kostin missed a fair amount of development his draft year due to injury. It was the big reason he fell.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I'll bite on this one.

Kostin played like 30 games his draft year spread out over I believe 3 teams.

He gets drafted, informs the Blues he'd like to come over immediately, but then personally insists on playing in the AHL at 18 which players just simply don't do typically, especially when they're transitioning not only to a new country but to a different style of hockey.

He had an option to play junior at 18 which would have not only made his transition to NA hockey easier, it would have allowed him to acclimate and grow much more quickly than against multi year pros where he was mostly in over his head playing fewer minutes and getting less time to develop. That's why it was the wrong route. You don't tackle all that at once and someone with more experience should have told him he's young, stupid and in this case wrong to insist on playing in the AHL at 18 in false hopes that he'd be an NHLer by now(quotes are out there, Kostin was very certain he'd be playing NHL by now). Now he may since have revised that opinion publicly but at the beginning of both offseasons he's been here he talked about making the NHL both times and not just in some in-the-future off hand manner. So this is a player that clearly viewed himself as being close and the reality is very different.

Btw I agree I wouldn't sell on him just out of the blue, we were discussing Kostin potentially getting frustrated based on how he views where he should be playing. This particular player could make big money in Russia while getting big minutes and so he could at some point make the decision himself.

I personally don't agree with Blueston about trading him because the AHL isn't exactly stocked with 19 year olds either and this player was always a project from the time we drafted him.

So, just to be clear, if he had been playing Junior these past two years you think he would be ready to play in the NHL now? Because I seriously doubt that. He’d have a lot more points, and a lot more hype, but that’s about it.

 

[LGB]

So, just to be clear, if he had been playing Junior these past two years you think he would be ready to play in the NHL now? Because I seriously doubt that. He’d have a lot more points, and a lot more hype, but that’s about it.

I do. Though I think staying in Russia would have been best. It is obviously true that the AHL is a much higher competition level than the OHL, but higher competition level does not mean best for development.

Edit: Didn't realize this said in the NHL. I don't think he'd be ready for the NHL but I think he'd be closer.

 

[David Dennison]

I do. Though I think staying in Russia would have been best. It is obviously true that the AHL is a much higher competition level than the OHL, but higher competition level does not mean best for development.

I agree with this, I don't know how we expect him to be a scorer in the NHL if he isn't being put in scoring opportunities right now. He could be getting 20-25 minutes playing in all situations in the CHL, instead he is probably getting half of that in the AHL with little power play time.

Going back to his draft year where he was mostly injured, he has probably been on the ice playing hockey far less than the majority of his peers.

 

[Dbrownss]

I agree with this, I don't know how we expect him to be a scorer in the NHL if he isn't being put in scoring opportunities right now. He could be getting 20-25 minutes playing in all situations in the CHL, instead he is probably getting half of that in the AHL with little power play time.

Going back to his draft year where he was mostly injured, he has probably been on the ice playing hockey far less than the majority of his peers.

How did that help Kyrou/Thomas? Absolutely crushed the OHL, struggle in the NHL. Thomas said the NHL learning curve was daunting. If Kyrou was AHL eligible last year....who's to say he wouldn't have struggled.


Too much focus on pts.

 

[David Dennison]

How did that help Kyrou/Thomas? Absolutely crushed the OHL, struggle in the NHL. Thomas said the NHL learning curve was daunting. If Kyrou was AHL eligible last year....who's to say he wouldn't have struggled.


Too much focus on pts.

It's not all about points but it is about putting someone you hope to be a scorer into a scoring role.

When was the last time Kostin was in a scoring role? Russian juniors 3 years ago? The WJC for 5 games a year? Thomas and Kyrou were stacking awards and championships playing big minutes on top lines with other high draft picks, Kostin has been on the 3rd/4th line playing with 12 minutes a night with career AHL/ECHL tweeners.

And Thomas and Kyrou have had very positive first professional seasons. Just because a player isn't PPG in the NHL at 19-20 doesn't mean that they are struggling. The important thing is you see progress with Kyrou/Thomas, and I'm not sure the same could be said for Kostin since being drafted. Thomas is a special player, I'm not sure about Kyrou or Kostin, but if I had to pick one, I know who it would be.

 

[Dbrownss]

It's not all about points but it is about putting someone you hope to be a scorer into a scoring role.

When was the last time Kostin was in a scoring role? Russian juniors 3 years ago? The WJC for 5 games a year? Thomas and Kyrou were stacking awards and championships playing big minutes on top lines with other high draft picks, Kostin has been on the 3rd/4th line playing with 12 minutes a night with career AHL/ECHL tweeners.

And Thomas and Kyrou have had very positive first professional seasons. Just because a player isn't PPG in the NHL at 19-20 doesn't mean that they are struggling. The important thing is you see progress with Kyrou/Thomas, and I'm not sure the same could be said for Kostin since being drafted. Thomas is a special player, I'm not sure about Kyrou or Kostin, but if I had to pick one, I know who it would be.

You just made the argument for being patient with Kostin. He's not in a scoring role, he's in the same spot Thomas was in Stl...except on a bad team that didnt recover. Thomas looked bad when the Blues looked bad, scratched and benched. Last year there was barely a spot for Kostin and the Blues didnt have their guys helping him. Now they do, but the team stinks. To me the clock started this year for him and if the Rampage are more interested in teaching him NA hockey then watching him light the lamp, then I'm fine being patient with the kid. Being patient and developing Kostin will always be worth more then recouping value....because if fans think he's a bust....what do you think NHL pro scouts are seeing?

 

[stlbluz]

Isn't this the first season that the whole team has been together? I've seen some examples of how sometimes it takes a while for new players to find chemistry together.

 

[Blueston]

You just made the argument for being patient with Kostin. He's not in a scoring role, he's in the same spot Thomas was in Stl...except on a bad team that didnt recover. Thomas looked bad when the Blues looked bad, scratched and benched. Last year there was barely a spot for Kostin and the Blues didnt have their guys helping him. Now they do, but the team stinks. To me the clock started this year for him and if the Rampage are more interested in teaching him NA hockey then watching him light the lamp, then I'm fine being patient with the kid. Being patient and developing Kostin will always be worth more then recouping value....because if fans think he's a bust....what do you think NHL pro scouts are seeing?

Why do we keep making excuses for him? Team played really well for a few months before injuries and calluos decimated them. He still struggled. Ask the guys who watch Rampage. Kostin has been bad. Guys like Kyrou and Polanski and Reinke as first year pros all made huge leaps. All produced. But somehow it is teams fault Kostin stinks? He wasn’t very good at WJC either. Kid needs to decide if he wants to be an NHL player because he is trending big time towards no.

 

[David Dennison]

You just made the argument for being patient with Kostin. He's not in a scoring role, he's in the same spot Thomas was in Stl...except on a bad team that didnt recover. Thomas looked bad when the Blues looked bad, scratched and benched. Last year there was barely a spot for Kostin and the Blues didnt have their guys helping him. Now they do, but the team stinks. To me the clock started this year for him and if the Rampage are more interested in teaching him NA hockey then watching him light the lamp, then I'm fine being patient with the kid. Being patient and developing Kostin will always be worth more then recouping value....because if fans think he's a bust....what do you think NHL pro scouts are seeing?

Always more? Get out of here with the hyperbole, that argument is a great example of the sunk cost fallacy. If you bought a stock and it lost half of it's value, would you hold onto it just because you want to get your money back, or do you get out because it's going to zero and reinvest that money in something else? You are saying #1. Im saying you invest it in whatever maximizes your value.

I understand the logic of not wanting to sell low on a player, but you are also underrating the possibility that Kostin never plays a game for the Blues or is a marginal overall player. We drafted Kostin thinking he has scoring potential, if we are two years down the road with him and don't think that scoring upside is there, we should absolutely look into moving him for something even if it isn't what we originally paid for him.

 

[Dbrownss]

Always more? Get out of here with the hyperbole, that argument is a great example of the sunk cost fallacy. If you bought a stock and it lost half of it's value, would you hold onto it just because you want to get your money back, or do you get out because it's going to zero and reinvest that money in something else? You are saying #1. Im saying you invest it in whatever maximizes your value.

I understand the logic of not wanting to sell low on a player, but you are also underrating the possibility that Kostin never plays a game for the Blues or is a marginal overall player. We drafted Kostin thinking he has scoring potential, if we are two years down the road with him and don't think that scoring upside is there, we should absolutely look into moving him for something even if it isn't what we originally paid for him.

He's 19 years old. This EA sports asset management mentality is mind boggling. As I've said.....if he's a lost cause, you're not pulling a fast one on an NHL team unless they just absolutely love the idea of him, It's always possible with the Chiarelli's of he world. This idea of someone offering a first just isnt realistic, those are outliers and shouldbt be counted on.

Either way, I stand by being patient with him and not losing my mind over a 19yr old not ripping it up in his 2nd pro season that was compounded by moving to NA and injuries leading into his draft year.


As for your stock analogy......what happens if you sell that stock for pennies on the dollar and whoever bought it sits on it for a few years and it rebounds? While your recouped asset stock never turns into anything. Now your out of money and the shoot from the hip mentality has you watching your original stock soaring. You dont but stock to make a quick buck. It's a long term play. Kostin is a long term project. Its possible he does bust, but ready to dump him because he's not showing signs of improvement in year 2......that's way too short sighted. Heck, if that's the case....let's hurry up and move Husso because he struggled year 2

 

[Dbrownss]

Why do we keep making excuses for him? Team played really well for a few months before injuries and calluos decimated them. He still struggled. Ask the guys who watch Rampage. Kostin has been bad. Guys like Kyrou and Polanski and Reinke as first year pros all made huge leaps. All produced. But somehow it is teams fault Kostin stinks? He wasn’t very good at WJC either. Kid needs to decide if he wants to be an NHL player because he is trending big time towards no.

Odd....he's the youngest of the players you mentioned. I've read what people who watch the Rampage have said. I have not acted like his has some underlying corsi numbers that say he's a stud. I've maintained his upside is worth waiting on instead of musing over an offer of a 1st round pick for him. If he's struggling, its unlikely a team will offer a high pick for him. Again...he's 19. MacMac while not nearly as talented was written off years ago but has shown he is an NHL player.


*if Kostin is moved it won't be for a pick to kick the can down the road. It will be in a deal for a roster player

 

[David Dennison]

He's 19 years old. This EA sports asset management mentality is mind boggling. As I've said.....if he's a lost cause, you're not pulling a fast one on an NHL team unless they just absolutely love the idea of him, It's always possible. This idea of someone offering a first just isnt realistic, those are outliers and shouldbt be counted on.

Either way, I stand by being patient with him and not losing my mind over a 19yr old not ripping it up in his 2nd pro season that was compounded by moving to NA and injuries leading into his draft year.

I am using an EA management mindset but you think every team values a enigmatic talent exactly the same? Gotcha.

I said nothing about him being a lost cause, Im saying there are a range of potential outcomes for Klim Kostin, and since his draft year I think the odds he becomes a top 6 scorer have gone down. I also think the odds he becomes a 3rd-4th line fighter/physical/pest type who can chip in a few goals has gone up. My point is the latter isn't a super valuable thing to a team, and they certainly shouldn't be untouchable.

My concern with him is practical as well. Is he gonna jump back to Russia if he doesn't get a chance next season? If he does stay, he will likely have to be protected in the expansion draft. Is he gonna improve enough in the next two years to warrant protection over other players? If not, we could lose him for nothing.

All these things together, I wouldnt hesitate moving him.

 

[Dbrownss]

I am using an EA management mindset but you think every team values a enigmatic talent exactly the same? Gotcha.

I said nothing about him being a lost cause, Im saying there are a range of potential outcomes for Klim Kostin, and since his draft year I think the odds he becomes a top 6 scorer have gone down. I also think the odds he becomes a 3rd-4th line fighter/physical/pest type who can chip in a few goals has gone up. My point is the latter isn't a super valuable thing to a team, and they certainly shouldn't be untouchable.

My concern with him is practical as well. Is he gonna jump back to Russia if he doesn't get a chance next season? If he does stay, he will likely have to be protected in the expansion draft. Is he gonna improve enough in the next two years to warrant protection over other players? If not, we could lose him for nothing.

All these things together, I wouldnt hesitate moving him.

This is the only concern I see as worth moving him. Also unless things have changed, he is exempt from the draft.

As I've said, Kostin's case isnt typical. And in my opinion his talent level and upside is worth being patient.

 

[David Dennison]

This is the only concern I see as worth moving him. Also unless things have changed, he is exempt from the draft.

As I've said, Kostin's case isnt typical. And in my opinion his talent level and upside is worth being patient.

People around here have said he will be exempt, but he will have completed 4 pro seasons by then. I think the 18y.o. year may not count but that would still put him at 3 years and we would have to protect him.

 

[Dbrownss]

People around here have said he will be exempt, but he will have completed 4 pro seasons by then. I think the 18y.o. year may not count but that would still put him at 3 years and we would have to protect him.

I haven't done the research myself so I dont know for certain, just going off what everyone has said

 

[David Dennison]

NHL teams receiving information on potential expansion draft - Sportsnet.ca

Players with two years of professional experience or less will be exempt from the process. Determining who that covers is based on the definition included in the collective bargaining agreement – meaning that 10 games played in the NHL at age 18 or 19 counts as a season, as does any American Hockey League or NHL season for players older than that.

I am wrong, since he didn't play in the NHL for 10 games this or last season, the next two seasons will be pro seasons 1&2 for him. He will be exempt.

 

[TK 421]

So, just to be clear, if he had been playing Junior these past two years you think he would be ready to play in the NHL now? Because I seriously doubt that. He’d have a lot more points, and a lot more hype, but that’s about it.

No I don't think he'd necessarily be NHL ready (personal opinion is absolutely not). However it would have definitely been the optimal development route to at least play one year of junior to get acclimated and establish himself against his own age group before playing pro.