Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019 - Part II

[The Note in MI]

Is that next for Blues prospects?

WJC Summer Showcase is next then prospect camp. July 28-Aug 4 will be two Canada rosters and Thomas potentially on one of them unless blues hold him out

 

[Evocable Manager]

I still wonder how Armstrong plans to pull this off.

We currently sit with 3.28M in cap space. Edmundson is 25 and cost controlled for 1 more season then he is eligible for UFA. Schmaltz is 24 and cost controlled for 2 more seasons.

I'm predicting a 2 year contract with an AAV of 900k for Schmaltz and a 1 year bridge deal worth 2M for Edmundson.

While the Maroon contract comes with no risk, it's odd with the obvious fact that we can very easily pencil Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Schwartz, Schenn, Steen, Perron, Bozak, Fabbri and Thomas for the top nine as well as a mix of Jaskin, Barbashev, Soshnikov, Thorburn, Flynn, Nolan, Sundqvist, Sanford and Blais to play on the fourth line or sit in the press box and Kyrou banging on the door with an outside chance to make the team (and I'm predicting he plays in the NHL at some point this upcoming season). So that's 9, possibly 10 other players that can fill in the fourth line and press box role, along with 1 that has an outside shot to push his way into a top 9 spot.

I'd really hate for Armstrong to bridge Edmundson and for him to cost more than he needed to his next deal. Had we not brought in Maroon, I'd bet Edmundson could've been locked up for roughly 3.5-4Mish (using Miller as a comparable) on a 4-5 year deal that takes him right through his prime years.

If he moves out Bouwmeester or Gunnarsson than everything fell into place very well. If he moves out any other player (so basically Steen) I'd be very unhappy (barring the return however).

 

[MissouriMook]

We currently sit with 3.28M in cap space.

You need to keep in mind, too, that your starting point of $3.28M in cap space is based on a 23 man roster without Eddy or Schmaltz on it, so you need to move 3 forwards off and Thomas on to get a new starting point of 13F/6D/2G. Adding Thomas and subtracting 3 other forwards will likely leave you with closer to $4.5M to $4.75M in space for Eddy and Schmaltz, which is doable without trading anyone.

 

[Mike Liut]

What’s the deal with Bokk signing his 3 year ELC? Does that mean hes coming over to NA to play?

 

[The Note in MI]

What’s the deal with Bokk signing his 3 year ELC? Does that mean hes coming over to NA to play?

That’s a good question I think he still plays in the SHL

 

[Brian39]

I still wonder how Armstrong plans to pull this off.

We currently sit with 3.28M in cap space. Edmundson is 25 and cost controlled for 1 more season then he is eligible for UFA. Schmaltz is 24 and cost controlled for 2 more seasons.

I'm predicting a 2 year contract with an AAV of 900k for Schmaltz and a 1 year bridge deal worth 2M for Edmundson.

While the Maroon contract comes with no risk, it's odd with the obvious fact that we can very easily pencil Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Schwartz, Schenn, Steen, Perron, Bozak, Fabbri and Thomas for the top nine as well as a mix of Jaskin, Barbashev, Soshnikov, Thorburn, Flynn, Nolan, Sundqvist, Sanford and Blais to play on the fourth line or sit in the press box and Kyrou banging on the door with an outside chance to make the team (and I'm predicting he plays in the NHL at some point this upcoming season). So that's 9, possibly 10 other players that can fill in the fourth line and press box role, along with 1 that has an outside shot to push his way into a top 9 spot.

I'd really hate for Armstrong to bridge Edmundson and for him to cost more than he needed to his next deal. Had we not brought in Maroon, I'd bet Edmundson could've been locked up for roughly 3.5-4Mish (using Miller as a comparable) on a 4-5 year deal that takes him right through his prime years.

If he moves out Bouwmeester or Gunnarsson than everything fell into place very well. If he moves out any other player (so basically Steen) I'd be very unhappy (barring the return however).

Ed has 2 more seasons before he hits UFA. He doesn't turn 27 until the summer of 2020 and he has 5 years of NHL experience. So he is cost controlled for this upcoming season and the 2019-20 season. Likewise, Schmaltz is cost controlled for the next 3 years as he will still be 26 on July 1st, 2020. So he won't hit UFA until the summer of 2021.

Depending on who makes the roster, we have the cap space to ice a 23 man roster with Ed making around $4 mil AAV without making any trade. I don't think our current cap situation is changing the team's strategy with Ed.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

What’s the deal with Bokk signing his 3 year ELC? Does that mean hes coming over to NA to play?

No, he’s still going to be in Sweden. That means his ELC will slide, aka it won’t start until next season, aka it won’t end until 4 years from now.

It’s routine and expected to give your first rounders an ELC right away.

He has said himself that he needs 3-4 years to develop, and from what I’ve seen/read of him, I think he’s right on the money. Signing him to an ELC doesn’t really affect where he plays though. If Vaxjo decides they want to loan him to San Antonio they could do that I guess. Nothin stopping them

 

[Oberyn]

Bokk's ELC can slide up to two years, so if he wanted to stay in Sweden for two more seasons it would slide both years.

 

[Stealth JD]

This could be Petro's year for Norris consideration if the offense can pick it up a couple of notches. An improved power play and more finishers up front could find Pietrangelo breaking 50-assists this season. If he can put up 15G again alongside those 50-assists he's got a real shot. Especially if the Blues continue to be one of the better defensive teams in the league. The plus-minus stats could be huge if they continue the 5-on-5 dominance from years past, and through the ~40% mark of last season, Petro was leading the race in a lot of eyes. Without a team-wide collapse, he's probably top-5 at year-end. No reason to think his season (stats) won't be even better next year with a better team around him.

 

[Reality Czech]

This could be Petro's year for Norris consideration if the offense can pick it up a couple of notches. An improved power play and more finishers up front could find Pietrangelo breaking 50-assists this season. If he can put up 15G again alongside those 50-assists he's got a real shot. Especially if the Blues continue to be one of the better defensive teams in the league. The plus-minus stats could be huge if they continue the 5-on-5 dominance from years past, and through the ~40% mark of last season, Petro was leading the race in a lot of eyes. Without a team-wide collapse, he's probably top-5 at year-end. No reason to think his season (stats) won't be even better next year with a better team around him.

Yeah, if he can replicate the first couple of months of last season. And our PP should be at least somewhat improved, which should boost his point totals as well. Doubt they are ready to hand over the reins fully to Dunn yet, and I don't know what Parayko's deal.

Basically +1

 

[Brian39]

This could be Petro's year for Norris consideration if the offense can pick it up a couple of notches. An improved power play and more finishers up front could find Pietrangelo breaking 50-assists this season. If he can put up 15G again alongside those 50-assists he's got a real shot. Especially if the Blues continue to be one of the better defensive teams in the league. The plus-minus stats could be huge if they continue the 5-on-5 dominance from years past, and through the ~40% mark of last season, Petro was leading the race in a lot of eyes. Without a team-wide collapse, he's probably top-5 at year-end. No reason to think his season (stats) won't be even better next year with a better team around him.

This is dead on. He's had 14 and 15 goal seasons over the last 2 years and had 54 points this past season despite our PP being hot garbage and the overall offense being bad. With what we have added, there is little reason to believe that he falls short of 60 points if he plays 75+ games. I'd be surprised if he isn't on the top PP unit and we all know he is going to get massive 5 on 5 minutes again. Even if it isn't a Norris season, I'd be shocked if he isn't a 60+ point D man who is regarded as very good in his own zone. So let's talk money.

Doughty just got $11 mil per and I'd be shocked if Karlsson gets anything less than that. Doughty's contract is 13.84% of the cap. Subban's contract was 13.04% of the cap when he signed it and it included 2 RFA years (more solid work by the Habs with their decision to bridge him). That's the bar for the absolutely elite. 13+% of the cap.

Burns got $8x8 a couple years ago when the cap was at $73 mil, which put it just shy of 11% of the cap. That percentage of today's cap would be about $8.75 mil and I'd expect that number to be on the other side of $9 mil under whatever the cap is by the time we're negotiating with Petro. Burns was 32 when that extension kicked, so he'll be 40 by the end of the deal.

Hedman's $7.875x8 was 10.79% of the cap when he signed it and he will be 34 when it expires. Take the "no income tax in Florida" argument as you will for whether his contract represents true market value. Petro's agent will certainly argue that the take home percentage of that deal compared to in STL should be taken into account.

John Carlsson just signed an $8x8 deal that expires when he is 36. That's 10.06% of the cap.

If Petro performs at the base of what is expected this year, anything under $9 mil AAV on an 8 year extension is an absolute bargain. He'd be 38 by the end of the deal and it is pretty much indisputable that he's drastically better in his own zone than Burns or Carlson. Assuming a 60 point season, he should be right in that 11% range and potentially higher. A Norris nomination makes anything below $10 mil unlikely.

The Blues should absolutely pay it, but anyone budgeting outside the $9+ mil AAV range probably needs to adjust their expectations. While this isn't a contract year, we all know that negotiations for Petro will start next summer. FOr all intents and purposes, Petro is playing for his next contract this season and he has been given an offense that should pad his stats more than the past couple years. That is an exciting combo and I fully expect him to take advantage of it. I think he is going to go out and earn $80 million dollars, I think that puts this team squarely in Cup contention and there is zero doubt in my mind that the team will pay it if he earns it.

 

[trevorftw]

This is dead on. He's had 14 and 15 goal seasons over the last 2 years and had 54 points this past season despite our PP being hot garbage and the overall offense being bad. With what we have added, there is little reason to believe that he falls short of 60 points if he plays 75+ games. I'd be surprised if he isn't on the top PP unit and we all know he is going to get massive 5 on 5 minutes again. Even if it isn't a Norris season, I'd be shocked if he isn't a 60+ point D man who is regarded as very good in his own zone. So let's talk money.

Doughty just got $11 mil per and I'd be shocked if Karlsson gets anything less than that. Doughty's contract is 13.84% of the cap. Subban's contract was 13.04% of the cap when he signed it and it included 2 RFA years (more solid work by the Habs with their decision to bridge him). That's the bar for the absolutely elite. 13+% of the cap.

Burns got $8x8 a couple years ago when the cap was at $73 mil, which put it just shy of 11% of the cap. That percentage of today's cap would be about $8.75 mil and I'd expect that number to be on the other side of $9 mil under whatever the cap is by the time we're negotiating with Petro. Burns was 32 when that extension kicked, so he'll be 40 by the end of the deal.

Hedman's $7.875x8 was 10.79% of the cap when he signed it and he will be 34 when it expires. Take the "no income tax in Florida" argument as you will for whether his contract represents true market value. Petro's agent will certainly argue that the take home percentage of that deal compared to in STL should be taken into account.

John Carlsson just signed an $8x8 deal that expires when he is 36. That's 10.06% of the cap.

If Petro performs at the base of what is expected this year, anything under $9 mil AAV on an 8 year extension is an absolute bargain. He'd be 38 by the end of the deal and it is pretty much indisputable that he's drastically better in his own zone than Burns or Carlson. Assuming a 60 point season, he should be right in that 11% range and potentially higher. A Norris nomination makes anything below $10 mil unlikely.

The Blues should absolutely pay it, but anyone budgeting outside the $9+ mil AAV range probably needs to adjust their expectations. While this isn't a contract year, we all know that negotiations for Petro will start next summer. FOr all intents and purposes, Petro is playing for his next contract this season and he has been given an offense that should pad his stats more than the past couple years. That is an exciting combo and I fully expect him to take advantage of it. I think he is going to go out and earn $80 million dollars, I think that puts this team squarely in Cup contention and there is zero doubt in my mind that the team will pay it if he earns it.

A whole lot can happen over 2 years, but I don't think he gets 10m aav unless he actually wins a Norris.

 

[Mike Liut]

How much is Petro currently making?

 

[AVictoryDive]

How much is Petro currently making?

6.5 million is his AAV

 

[Mike Liut]

6.5 million is his AAV

Be nice to keep him around 8. Maybe 8x8?

 

[Mike Liut]

Is Schenn replicates this past season, hes going to require ROR money. Probably something like 6 yrs 42 mill.

Petro - 8x8
Schenn - 7x6

 

[Brian39]

A whole lot can happen over 2 years, but I don't think he gets 10m aav unless he actually wins a Norris.

I think a 65-70 point season where he is 2nd behind an 80+ point Karlsson earns him $10 mil AAV.

If Karlsson is traded to a contender prior to the start of the year, I'd bet even money on Karlsson over the field to win the Norris this year. In what everyone described as a down year, Karlsson had 62 points in 71 games for arguably the biggest dumpster fire in the league last year. That's a 71 point pace coming off a major ankle surgery that limited his summer preparation. A normal offseason of prep plus a move to an NHL level franchise should make him an 80 point player again and he is now 3 years removed from his last Norris win so voter fatigue shouldn't be an issue.

If he's moved in the summer, the Norris is essentially Karlsson's to lose. If Petro puts up a Norris-caliber season but loses to an 80+ point Karlsson, he should earn a contract in the 12% range. That's still a step below the truly elite.

 

[Brian39]

Be nice to keep him around 8. Maybe 8x8?

If I were Petro's agent I wouldn't even present a counter offer if the Blues were seriously suggesting a worse contract than John Carlson's deal. By the time we're negotiating with Petro an $8x8 would be a lower cap percentage than Carlson. That's insulting.

 

[WeWentBlues]

The fad of these 8 year contracts needs to die, ASAP.

 

[Stealth JD]

If the cap goes up next off-season, Petro's worth $10M. If Army can lock him up for 8-years at anything less than that, he needs to do it ASAP. Schenn with another 70-point season as a Center will break the bar of $7.5M set by Tarasenko and ROR. Probably $8.5M/year if that happens.

 

[Brian39]

The fad of these 8 year contracts needs to die, ASAP.

It's not a fad. When there is a hard cap on total salaries, 7-10 years of team control to artificially decrease the market value of a player in the first half of their career, and a term limit on contracts for all players, then UFAs younger than 33 are going to get the max term.

The downside to controlling the careers and depressing market value via RFA is that fewer and fewer top end players are available on the marketplace. Combine that with a hard cap which harshly punishes high AAVs on short term deals and you have the situation we are in. The cream of the crop is going to get paid, period. That is true in every pro sport or entertainment market. When the CBA limits the number of that group to hit the market each year and punishes teams for structuring that money over a short term, you are going to have max-term contracts.

The NHL isn't going to budge on the hard cap. They're not going to budge on RFA years. Anything less than the 7/8 year max-term structure drastically reduces the amount of time you can control your top end drafted assets. There is zero chance the NHLPA will accept 7-8 year term for RFAs but only 5 for UFAs. That is almost certainly a hill that they will die on.

These deals are here to stay because they make sense for everyone. The least the cap has grown over an 8 year period is $15 mil and that included a rollback when the new CBA cut the player's HRR percentage from 57% to 50%. With LTIR and the natural growth of the cap, 8 year deals to guys in their late 20s and early 30s doesn't outweigh the value you receive from the depressed AAV in years 1-5 of the deal. Eating a couple years at the end of a guy's career is just objectively worth getting an artificial discount over that player's market value for the first 5 years of the deal.

 

[Mike Liut]

Is Schenn replicates this past season, hes going to require ROR money. Probably something like 6 yrs 42 mill.

Petro - 8x8
Schenn - 7x6

Looks like I was low balling both. Id definitely go higher if needed. 2 very important pieces that Id love to lock up long term. Hopefully they can afford to lock up both. Arent Schwartz and Parayko on short term deals?

 

[trevorftw]

I think a 65-70 point season where he is 2nd behind an 80+ point Karlsson earns him $10 mil AAV.

If Karlsson is traded to a contender prior to the start of the year, I'd bet even money on Karlsson over the field to win the Norris this year. In what everyone described as a down year, Karlsson had 62 points in 71 games for arguably the biggest dumpster fire in the league last year. That's a 71 point pace coming off a major ankle surgery that limited his summer preparation. A normal offseason of prep plus a move to an NHL level franchise should make him an 80 point player again and he is now 3 years removed from his last Norris win so voter fatigue shouldn't be an issue.

If he's moved in the summer, the Norris is essentially Karlsson's to lose. If Petro puts up a Norris-caliber season but loses to an 80+ point Karlsson, he should earn a contract in the 12% range. That's still a step below the truly elite.

There are certainly extenuating circumstances. If we win the cup in the next two years, 10m easily.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Someone catch me up to speed on Edmundson and Schmaltz.

Assume Edmundson goes to salary arbitration. As I understand it, Edmundson and his representation will make a pitch and Blues will make a pitch to an arbitrator. Arbitrator will decide on value. How is the contract length decided in this type of situation? Since it was player filed arbitration, do the Blues get to decide on the number of years? Edmundson will qualify for unrestricted free agency on July 1, 2020 - correct?

On Schmaltz - was he eligible for salary arbitration? If he doesn't sign his qualifying offer and the Blues don't otherwise negotiate a contract extension with him, what happens to his rights?

EDIT - I answered my own question on Eddie. Arbitrator will decide term and money.

EDIT 2 - Nevermind on Edit 1

 

[Brian39]

Someone catch me up to speed on Edmundson and Schmaltz.

Assume Edmundson goes to salary arbitration. As I understand it, Edmundson and his representation will make a pitch and Blues will make a pitch to an arbitrator. Arbitrator will decide on value. How is the contract length decided in this type of situation? Since it was player filed arbitration, do the Blues get to decide on the number of years? Edmundson will qualify for unrestricted free agency on July 1, 2020 - correct?

On Schmaltz - was he eligible for salary arbitration? If he doesn't sign his qualifying offer and the Blues don't otherwise negotiate a contract extension with him, what happens to his rights?

EDIT - I answered my own question on Eddie. Arbitrator will decide term and money.

Because Eddie elected arbitration, the team will elect either a 1 or 2 year term per Article 12.9(c) of the CBA:

"The party against whom a salary arbitration election was filed (i.e., the Club in Player-elected salary arbitration and the Player in Club-elected salary arbitration) shall elect in its brief whether the salary arbitration award shall be for a one or two-year SPC"

You are correct that Eddie will become a UFA in the summer of 2020. Given that, I'd assume the Blues would select a 1 year arbitration award so that he will still be RFA at the end of the deal.

On Schmaltz, he is eligible for arbitration but did not elect to go to arbitration. Without basically any NHL resume, he wouldn't have really received any benefit by going to arbitration. If he doesn't sign his QO by July 15, he will remain an RFA and the QO goes off the table. If we don't negotiate an extension, we will retain his NHL rights. I believe we would have to offer him another QO next summer to retain his rights further, but I don't remember off the top of my head.