BinCookin's Defensive Scoring

[izlez]

I appreciate what you're doing here and having this different perspective

but to nitpick, XO getting a point for hitting Boyle. From what I remember, it was a pretty lackluster situation, then XO lets Boyle around him (a bad play), but then manages to recover...doesn't seem deserving a plus

 

[BinCookin]

I appreciate what you're doing here and having this different perspective

but to nitpick, XO getting a point for hitting Boyle. From what I remember, it was a pretty lackluster situation, then XO lets Boyle around him (a bad play), but then manages to recover...doesn't seem deserving a plus

That's a totally fair point. I just remember he should have had a good chance and ended up in a pile behind the net. Same rough story if i take that point away.

Ideally we will have some kind of trend after 10 games of scoring.
Also anyone else who wants to try to do the same thing, ill take your scores into account to.

 

[BinCookin]

It'd be nice to split the new season into a new thread... It's interesting to be able to easily move back and forth in the season.

That said, I think XO looked worse than this scoring would indicate, so it's interesting to me that you scored him well. I'll have to pay more attention next game to what he was specifically doing that I thought was bad that might not be accounted for in your scoring.

Would love that NJX.

I mean i try to keep it as scientific as i can. (Rate all the D-men the same way). Before I started doing this scoring I realized I almost never really watch what the D are doing. I just got mad when the other team scored.

If you watch the D men closely and try to score them. Might appreciate or notice things you would not normally look for.

I should also note i am not taking into account QoC or anything like that. And I am not trying to be mean to any D man. The scores just work out as they work out. I see a good play i put a +, bad -.

But NJX, would love for you to do this just 1 game. Would be fun to see how it works out. I will not be around Sat but will watch th replay later, feel free to do a scoring for the next game you watch.

P.S. I sometimes rewind and pause with NHL.com. Which is a distinct advantage to doing the scoring.

 

[njx9]

Would love that NJX.

I mean i try to keep it as scientific as i can. (Rate all the D-men the same way). Before I started doing this scoring I realized I almost never really watch what the D are doing. I just got mad when the other team scored.

If you watch the D men closely and try to score them. Might appreciate or notice things you would not normally look for.

I should also note i am not taking into account QoC or anything like that. And I am not trying to be mean to any D man. The scores just work out as they work out. I see a good play i put a +, bad -.

But NJX, would love for you to do this just 1 game. Would be fun to see how it works out. I will not be around Sat but will watch th replay later, feel free to do a scoring for the next game you watch.

P.S. I sometimes rewind and pause with NHL.com. Which is a distinct advantage to doing the scoring.

Yeah, I mean, I think I react frequently to the aftermath of a play, without taking into account what actually happened. Back before PFF and whoever started tracking DB stats, it was something I looked at a lot in the NFL; it was really easy to see a guy in the end zone, but it was harder to recognize that the safety had blown the deep zone, or that something else had happened and the DB was just the dude who got caught on camera.

As a side question, is this something that's commonly done by an organization internally? I think Corsi/Fenwick are kind of silly, from an analytics standpoint, but I think stuff like this is potentially really valuable to look at over a season.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

What makes this kind of analysis so difficult is that it's usually a combination of factors that lead to a defensive gaffe. Justin Bourne used to to these great analyses of defensive breakdowns.

Sometimes it's one player simply screwing up, but more often than not it starts a couple moves ahead and the last guy who got burned is trying to cover for his teammate, who was also trying to cover for another teammate.

 

[BinCookin]

What makes this kind of analysis so difficult is that it's usually a combination of factors that lead to a defensive gaffe. Justin Bourne used to to these great analyses of defensive breakdowns.

Sometimes it's one player simply screwing up, but more often than not it starts a couple moves ahead and the last guy who got burned is trying to cover for his teammate, who was also trying to cover for another teammate.

I can recall from memory. Two of Marchenko's mistakes were an unwise pinch where he lost a 50/50 leading to a 2on1 against. I mean these things happen, but if he backs up there... its a 2on2 and no goal against.

on the 5th goal, Marchenko was actually near the blue line. Tried to be aggresive and check the puck. puck was passed, and a forward beat Marchenko to the net to be wide open for the GWG. Again, too aggressive a play from Marchenko.

Now I am not saying Marchenko is bad. He got caught a couple times. He made 2 other not so deadly mistakes in the game.

But This is where having a few people look at these things is better than just me. Whereby i see one mistake on a play, someone else may see another I miss.

As a side question, is this something that's commonly done by an organization internally? I think Corsi/Fenwick are kind of silly, from an analytics standpoint, but I think stuff like this is potentially really valuable to look at over a season.

Obviously I would have no idea. I imagine when they "look" at game tape. Anyone's mistakes that lead to goals would most definitely be shown by the organization. In this case I am sure management might tell Marchenko to be less aggressive on certain pinches. They could also alternatively be trying to teach pinching and say "you have to pinch faster here" "or this is a moment, you shouldnt pinch" etc etc.

I do feel this "rough" good play/bad play analysis is more useful than corsi or fenwick. Because where the shot comes from matters much more to me than whether Marchenko and Dekeyser got "killed" in Corsi. In all truth if Marchenko didnt make those 2 mistakes to lead to goals. Maybe they don't get scored on, and we win the game. While still being outshot on that top pairing.

 

[InGusWeTrust]

Interesting. I think I may try this against Ottawa, I don't think I will be around for the Florida game.

This could potentially be done for the forwards too then correct? Much harder but possible..

 

[SirloinUB]

I can recall from memory. Two of Marchenko's mistakes were an unwise pinch where he lost a 50/50 leading to a 2on1 against. I mean these things happen, but if he backs up there... its a 2on2 and no goal against.

on the 5th goal, Marchenko was actually near the blue line. Tried to be aggresive and check the puck. puck was passed, and a forward beat Marchenko to the net to be wide open for the GWG. Again, too aggressive a play from Marchenko.

Now I am not saying Marchenko is bad. He got caught a couple times. He made 2 other not so deadly mistakes in the game.

But This is where having a few people look at these things is better than just me. Whereby i see one mistake on a play, someone else may see another I miss.


Obviously I would have no idea. I imagine when they "look" at game tape. Anyone's mistakes that lead to goals would most definitely be shown by the organization. In this case I am sure management might tell Marchenko to be less aggressive on certain pinches. They could also alternatively be trying to teach pinching and say "you have to pinch faster here" "or this is a moment, you shouldnt pinch" etc etc.

I do feel this "rough" good play/bad play analysis is more useful than corsi or fenwick. Because where the shot comes from matters much more to me than whether Marchenko and Dekeyser got "killed" in Corsi. In all truth if Marchenko didnt make those 2 mistakes to lead to goals. Maybe they don't get scored on, and we win the game. While still being outshot on that top pairing.

I'm not sure if we can muster the manpower to be successful but I see value in taking it a step further and look at success rates for specific play types and specific individuals. This could also help limit the subjective nature. For example, If we could track successful pinch percentages for each dmen and build a cumulative score.

Ex. Kronwall is successful on 64% of his pinches, Marchenko on 47%, etc.

We could even include other situational plays, like breakout passing.

Anyway, I'm just spitballing and have limited capacity to contribute myself so feel free to disregard (but I will attempt to score some games throughout the season). Either way I think what you are doing is really cool BinCookin. Keep up the good work, its appreciated.

 

[InGusWeTrust]

Didn't Marchenko get tied up with Z that ultimately led to the Boyle goal? I feel like I remember him kinda making contact with our own player which quite possibly led him to lose the pinch? To me, if I am playing D and I have a forward pressing the puck or taking the lane...why do I need to pinch? Why wouldn't I step back and take the passing lane?

ON the contrary; IF Marchenko started to move in first, why did Z continue to press? Why wouldn't he then cover the outlet pass and take Boyle?

However, I could have just made all of this up. I don't remember the play 100%.

 

[BinCookin]

Interesting. I think I may try this against Ottawa, I don't think I will be around for the Florida game.

This could potentially be done for the forwards too then correct? Much harder but possible..

Henkka does somethingg like this for all players. In a very regimented system.

I just know that follow just the D men is doable while still enjoying the game. I feel this would be more tough for Forwards, but also people pay a lot of attention to the forwards. So I do not think this is so much necessary for the forwards. Its the D men I noticed that most people pretty much ignore.

 

[njx9]

I'm not sure if we can muster the manpower to be successful but I see value in taking it a step further and look at success rates for specific play types and specific individuals. This could also help limit the subjective nature. For example, If we could track successful pinch percentages for each dmen and build a cumulative score.

Ex. Kronwall is successful on 64% of his pinches, Marchenko on 47%, etc.

We could even include other situational plays, like breakout passing.

Anyway, I'm just spitballing and have limited capacity to contribute myself so feel free to disregard (but I will attempt to score some games throughout the season). Either way I think what you are doing is really cool BinCookin. Keep up the good work, its appreciated.

I think that, with enough people presenting their scores (and with some kind of standardization of nomenclature for various play types), you could start to extract that kind of data fairly easily. It wouldn't be great, obviously, without an all-ice tape a lot of spare time, but I think it would be easy to start to tease out some really useful insight. That said, I work in analytics, so I'm maybe more passionate/interested than is really warranted about data.

 

[SirloinUB]

I think that, with enough people presenting their scores (and with some kind of standardization of nomenclature for various play types), you could start to extract that kind of data fairly easily. It wouldn't be great, obviously, without an all-ice tape a lot of spare time, but I think it would be easy to start to tease out some really useful insight. That said, I work in analytics, so I'm maybe more passionate/interested than is really warranted about data.

That's actually a good idea. My one concern would be that we would have an accurate number for the total attempt in particular but youre right, without proper tape, we are limited anyway.

 

[njx9]

That's actually a good idea. My one concern would be that we would have an accurate number for the total attempt in particular but youre right, without proper tape, we are limited anyway.

Yeah, I think my hope would be that with enough data, deficiencies in overall quality would get smoothed out a bit. Or at least enough for some amateur-level analysis (that is, analysis without a guy's job/contract riding on it, not that the analysis itself would necessarily be amateurish). It'd be a neat project if enough people participated game to game, but it would fall apart quickly if attention waned.

 

[Martinez]

Whoever plays with DD will end up a minus. We don't have someone who can hold there own with those matchups.
Quincey signed for 1 year, 1.25 million btw

 

[BinCookin]

Whoever plays with DD will end up a minus. We don't have someone who can hold there own with those matchups.
Quincey signed for 1 year, 1.25 million btw

Yes, but you realize WE could never sign him AND cut his salary right?
Not by that much! When players take big pay cuts, its almost always when moving to a new team.

And he is going to be great for them at that Salary IMO.

 

[Henkka]

Yes, but you realize WE could never sign him AND cut his salary right?
Not by that much! When players take big pay cuts, its almost always when moving to a new team.

And he is going to be great for them at that Salary IMO.

Yeah, it quite funny that Seidenberg would be 4M problem for Boston and Quincey a 4.25M problem for Red Wings, but buy them out and sign for 1M, and they will become steals.

 

[Martinez]

Yes, but you realize WE could never sign him AND cut his salary right?
Not by that much! When players take big pay cuts, its almost always when moving to a new team.

And he is going to be great for them at that Salary IMO.

As a Quincey fan I'm jealous. NJ will be very pleased

 

[BinCookin]

As much as it was not fun to rewatch a game that we lost.

I am going to give you my break down:

Here are my notes from the game:

Dekeyser
(+1) NIce pass behind net to blue line (on tape)
(-1) Stripped cleanly of puck leading to rush other way.
(+1) Good Deflection from dangerous area.
(-1) miscommunication with Green goal3
Green
(+1) Nice quick pass up the middle to free the zone.
(+1) Nice pass right on Z's Tape, exits the zone.
(-1) Beat through the legs and let him walk around
(-1) Pass went over his stick… 2on0
(+1) Nice walk the line and wrist shot.

(-1) miscommunication with Dekeyser goal3
Smith
(-1)Out of position pinch, leads to goal.
(-1)Flat out beat in a foot race by turning poorly, lead to 2on1 and 2nd goal against.
(-1)Let Brother shot on goal right in front of him, lucky he missed.
(-1)Trocheck walked right around Smith for a solid cross across the goal.
(-1)Poor 5 foot pass to Neilsen, into his feet, icing.
Marchenko
(-1)Beat cleanly wide on goal.
(-1)Let Jagr completely escape him around the net
(+1)Good shot block in close from a danger area.
(-1)Holding stick penalty
(-1)Out of position allowing Marchessault to get a wrap around uncontested
Ericsson
(+1)Ericsson double teamed, still made outlet pass
(-1)Ericsson out of position leading to scramble in detroit end.
(+1)Rode man completely into the boards around the net, to stop the cycle.
XO
(+1) good poke check/hit to stop the rush
(+1) good poke check on the wing.


Overall id say XO and Ericsson had a pretty quiet game on the third pairing.
The Marchenko and Smith line playing in our #3/4 (2nd pairing) got destroyed. Both had horrible games!!
Green and Dekeyser... They are the top pairing, and I would say they made some good plays, and made some mistakes. It is clear to me these are currently the 2 best D men on the roster and belong in the top pairing. The trouble is they did not fair better than "meh" yesterday.

Overall our D played worse than in Game 1.

Prediction for next game:

D-Pairings will be altered:

Green-DDK
Ericsson-XO
Smith-Marchenko (Marchenko and XO could flip)

 

[HIFE]

...Overall id say XO and Ericsson had a pretty quiet game on the third pairing.
The Marchenko and Smith line playing in our #3/4 (2nd pairing) got destroyed. Both had horrible games!!
Green and Dekeyser... They are the top pairing, and I would say they made some good plays, and made some mistakes. It is clear to me these are currently the 2 best D men on the roster and belong in the top pairing. The trouble is they did not fair better than "meh" yesterday...

Didn't notice until the replay Marchenko was stripped from the 2nd pair by the middle of the 1st period. Here's my strange and skewed D scoring summary:

Green +12
Ouellet +6
Ericsson +5
Smith 0
DeKeyser -1
Marchenko -1

Regardless of his score in my book DeKeyser had a good game. I agree with you BC he and Green are heads above our other D men. Another thing, the replay showed me our forwards were the letdown. Bizarre we hear how terrible the D is and our forwards play like complete ****.

 

[BinCookin]

Anyone interested in trying to score our D-men with me tonight?

 

[njx9]

Anyone interested in trying to score our D-men with me tonight?

I'll try, but I may only make the 2nd or 3rd period. Being in Denver, I don't mind the games ending at a reasonable time every night, but it's really hard to catch the beginning sometimes.

 

[BinCookin]

I'll try, but I may only make the 2nd or 3rd period. Being in Denver, I don't mind the games ending at a reasonable time every night, but it's really hard to catch the beginning sometimes.

Ah i see. cool
(ill devide my scores by period) to equalize

 

[njx9]

Figures.. I got all of 3 minutes before my video died. Will resume when I can.

2 Smith - 14:40 good zone entry +, 13:00 outlet pass to Larkin (should've led to interference) +, 11:29 good shot +, 11:09 poor dive led to easy pass for sh goal --
65 Dekeyser - 3:25 bad turnover -, 3:06 pass into skates -, 2:xx blocked shot +, 1:56 (i think was DDK) bad turnover -, 0:27 good breakup +
53 Marchenko - 4:20 bad icing -, 3:53 bad turnover -
52 Ericsson - 13:42 good poke to prevent chance +, 11:41 Pass into the skates -, 1:20 bad icing, 1:15 blocked shot? hope he's ok.
61 Ouellet - 9:10 kept puck in zone +, 7:29 neutral zone turnover leading to scoring chance -
25 Green - 7:10 good cut off on the passing lane +, 5:39 cut off rush for turnover +, 1:00 good zone entry + (bad interference call)

Was able to get ~15:00 of the 2nd, but this is too hard to do with 240P video and no rewind. Credit for doing it at all, it's far more work than I thought.

 

[HIFE]

Anyone interested in trying to score our D-men with me tonight?

I don't think it's possible to watch the actual "game" live and score our D. It wouldn't be fun either because you naturally want to watch all the players on both teams. On a replay (which realistically only takes 60 minutes) I'm able to stare and focus literally on just our defensemen and give a proper evaluation.

In my version of the scoring system I try and judge every touch of the puck and effect say based on positioning. It's either a + or -. Doesn't make sense to base a score on only a few passes, etc. we happened to notice.

 

[Mijatovic]

11:09 poor dive led to easy pass for sh goal --

That dive was so bad it deserved at least 3 minuses