BinCookin's Defensive Scoring

[njx9]

Even if I couldn't watch the game, really, really stoked to see Sproul still doing well and that his errors aren't the kind of thing that I think worried people. He doesn't seem to be out there making terrible turnovers, and I feel like some of his issues (passing into the skates, for instance), might just have to do with it being his second game. Either way, I'm really happy we're giving him a chance; it would've been disappointing to have waived him and to see him play this well, relatively, elsewhere.

 

[BinCookin]

So we are on a pretty solid losing streak

But this past loss 2-1 EDM (Nov 6th) was actually overall well played by the defense:

DET vs EDM

DDK (+3)
(+) good poke check
(+) blocked mcdavids pass to far side
(+) nice pass to green.

Green (+3-1)
(-) penalty
(+) good shot on net
(+) good try by green on shot
(+) another good offensive try

Ericsson (+2-1)
(+) good 2 passes in D zone
(-) 2 poor passes
(+) good challenge on the boards

Smith (+3-5)
(+) good shot on goal, assist goal 1
(-) turnover lead to 2on1
(-) pass to no one
(+) joining the rush
(-) didn't close down man fast enough, let him pass right in front of net
(-) whiffed on a pass, turnover
(-) poor pass behind his own net
(+) nice hit and puck recovery

Marchenko (-2)
(-) poor bank pass not near Z
(-) poor pass turnover and scoring chance against

Kronwall (+6-1)
(+) nice tricky back hand pass to fool forechecker, easy exit
(-) out of position on bad play by smith
(+) good pass to exit the zone.
(+) another nice backhand pass in his own zone to relieve pressure
(+) nice PP shot
(+) great 1on1 vs McDavid
(+) right on the tape pass to AA


I would like to point out Kronwall has been subtly really good.
DDK and Green were mostly pretty quiet tonight.

And Smith is coughing up grenades as usual. By far our worst D man all year (If you count "bad plays" made) throughout the year.

P.S. I updated the original post to a google sheet, for easier update of the yearly stats.

 

[InGusWeTrust]

Ericsson being here he is is quite shocking to me....

 

[Flowah]

I haven't paid too much to your scoring BinCooking, but I know that I saw DK make at least one bad play last night and Marchenko one good one. What's your cutoff for good or bad? Just feelings?

 

[BinCookin]

I haven't paid too much to your scoring BinCooking, but I know that I saw DK make at least one bad play last night and Marchenko one good one. What's your cutoff for good or bad? Just feelings?

Obviously I don't garauntee perfection. I write down what i can catch.

If a pass looks "routine" i dont score it.
If a player is just in great position, ill probably miss some of those (because they make it look routine).

I don't really have a cutoff. The only control I could have is more evaluators.
Or simply more time. If DDK was scored +3-1//+4-1//+2-2 it should all end up the same in the end.

The data IMO only has value with MANY games.

The one trend i have noticed is Smith is making 2x as many mistakes as any other D man on our team.

I also think XO and Sproul have played well as a #6 D man. But more games needed for them.

 

[chances14]

smith and marchenko have really regressed this year from what i've seen, which is disappointing but not surprising. i really think it's time to cut bait with them. keep sproul and xo in the lineup and see what they can do

dekeyser hasn't looked great either because he's being forced into a #1 role when he's really a number 3 guy

kronwall has looked good in his 2 games so far. but we'll see how his knees hold up as he gets more games in

 

[Henkka]

The one trend i have noticed is Smith is making 2x as many mistakes as any other D man on our team.

I also think XO and Sproul have played well as a #6 D man. But more games needed for them.

Thanks about this. My gut feeling about Smith is exactly same. He should have been benched for Sproul a while ago.

 

[BinCookin]

Here are my scores tonight.

DET 3 - PHI 2

DDK(+2-2)
(+) smart little jump into the cycle in o-zone
(-) holding in o-zone not needed
(-) turnover
(+) great pass to AA on goal 2 for us
Green(+4)
(+) great walk the line (the whole line) and SOG
(+) good skate around the o-zone and SOG
(+) good defensive positioning
(+) good pass to 65 2nd assist
Ericsson(+1-2)
(-) pass picked off
(+) good defensive spin and pass to the tape of 53
(-) bad positioning leads to breakaway
Smith(+1-7)
(-) poor pass up the middle
(-) pass picked off, turnover in D-zone
(-) missed the puck at the point on simple pass back (wasn't hoping)
(-) pass banked off skates turnover
(-) schenn went around Smith for SOG
(+) joined the rush
(-) didn't tie up man on goal 2
(-) stupidly stayed in O-zone in advanced position, leads to 2on1 against
Marchenko(+1-2)
(-) poor pass just to no one
(+) set up a 2on1
(-) bad positioning leads to breakaway
Kronwall(+3-1)
(+) nice pass off cross ice off wall right to nelson
(+) nice calm pass back behind the net from a strange bounce in front
(+) great body position by kronwall going into the corner
(-) allowed wrap around on goal 2, slightly interfered with jimmy

Smith had a horrible game, you guys probably noticed!

 

[ap3x]

You didn't list Big E losing that fight as a minus.

 

[BinCookin]

You didn't list Big E losing that fight as a minus.

LOL nope, not a hockey play IMO. Pointless to the game.
NOT to my Fantasy team though, where i had Simmonds. +5PIMS for me!!

I should also note according to my numbers:

- Kronwall // Ericsson should be getting promoted up the pairings
- Smith // Marchenko should be getting moved down the lineup
- Smith has performed at the level of our 7th D man (XO and Sproul have both played better)(but we should note Smith has been taking on tougher competition)
- Green has looked good on the top pairing. He is our #1 D-man right now.
- DDK has been just getting by on the top pairing. Its very possible he will be demoted to the 2nd pairing, and flurish there

 

[ap3x]

Agreed upon moving Kronner up and Smith & Marchenko down the lineup. As unimpressed as I'm with DDK's play lately, I'm not so keen on Big E moving to the top pair either. Moreover, Kronner can't eat those minutes & face that competition anymore. So 2nd pairing is the highest that they should go. But who to put with Green? As you've mentioned already, Smith is underachieving and doesn't deserve to play.

Guess I'd stick with DDK of necessity, hoping for him to get back on track, and go with:

DDK - Green
Kronner - Sproul
Big E - Marchenko

And yeah, I'm well aware of Blashill not really putting Sproul back into lineup...

 

[BinCookin]

DDK - Green
Kronner - Sproul
Big E - Marchenko

You know how nice a "smithless" lineup looks. I rate our 6 D men every game...and I really am not seeing the (+)'s for Smith that make up for the (-)'s hes dropping into the lineup.

Smith is responsible for a 2on1 against at least once every 2 games.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

You know how nice a "smithless" lineup looks. I rate our 6 D men every game...and I really am not seeing the (+)'s for Smith that make up for the (-)'s hes dropping into the lineup.

Smith is responsible for a 2on1 against at least once every 2 games.

To be fair though, you also openly hate Smith.

 

[Mijatovic]

If anything, I'd throw a meh blanket over all our defenceman not named Green and put Sproul in. At least he tried to make interesting stuff happen.

 

[BinCookin]

To be fair though, you also openly hate Smith.

Not at all.

But my stats imply he should be on the bench.

I think he has one of the largest hearts on the team. But if he whiffs on a pass and it becomes a turnover, i mark him down for it, just like anyone else.

 

[ap3x]

If someone disagrees with his scores on Smith, just do your own and discuss about it. Not doing it? Fine.
But accusing him of a hate on Smith isn't the really the way to go...

 

[BinCookin]

Here are my scores from the MTL game:

Period#-Timestamp-(+/- good or bad play) Explanation
If you guys think i am being harsh on Smith... feel free to look up the game tape on any play and we can discuss. Same for if you think i missed a good play. P.S. i have access to all replayed games on NHL.com (which is nice)

Green(+1-1)
2-13:51(-) Perfect set up by Z, and he flubbed it
3-8:02(+) good join the rush play, split d

DDK(+1-2)
2-8:21(+) nice play on the boards to get to smith, zone cleared
2-5:55(-) pinched up, but let to 2on1
3-4:55(-) fumble puck no pressure for turnover

Kronwall(+2-2)
1-12:05(-) kronwall didn't handle pass, beat leading to breakaway
3-16:18(+) good long pass
3-12:18(+) good join on the rush
3-6:39(-) poor keep on the zone by kronwall on PP

Smith(+2-7)
1-15:43(-) OOP
1-6:27(-) smith beat wide
1-0:22(+) nice fast pass
2-17:15(-) joined rush, and did not work hard to get back into the play
2-13:21(-) smith just falls down, turnover almost
2-9:21(-) Smith passes into Z's skate (uncontrollable)
3-18:23(-) turnover, under pressure, but he was cleanly beaten
3-11:33(-) horrible D to D pass!
3-11:20(+) good pass to relieve pressure

Ericsson(+4-1)
1-17:10(+) good spin pass out of zone
1-8:35(+) nice saucer pass under pressure
1-0:22(+) nice play in the corner
3-15:05(-) pinch leads to 2on1
3-5:07(+) good physical play to takeaway puck

Marchenko(+1-1)
3-12:37(-) fumbled a pass, turnover
3-1:37(+) nice shot on net


I have updated the master sheet on the OP.

 

[chances14]

only ones who think you are being too harsh on smith are those who refuse to admit that smith is a first round bust. dude is never gonna be a top 4 defenseman, especially on this team

 

[19 for president]

Smith has never recovered from his early NHL treatment and overplay in the AHL. He was a physical roamer that immediately got suspended for what I still think was a fine hit and benched anytime he did anything remotely offensive. I wouldn't mind trying him at forward where I think his instincts would be a lot better, but as a dman he is done on the Red Wings and likely the NHL. If the Wings don't want Sproul to be Smith 2.0, they better be willing to let him make mistakes. Smith should be traded while he is still tradeable,and Sproul should be in playing with Kronner.

Marchy has been a bit of a disappointment thus far, but I do think he is a better dman than he has show.

E has been a pleasant surprise, but he needs to stay in the bottom pair. Playing his correct side and vs. lesser opponents has really helped him.

Still need to trade for another puck mover if this d wants to be anything more than below average to down right poor.

 

[Henkka]

I don't understand what is the purpose to play pending UFA (Smith). Showcasing Smith for a trade? His poor level of play just reduces the trade value.

Sproul was nothing but great on his rare games and gives us perfect handness pairs.

Why not go with him? Smitty is not our future, Sproul/Ouellet could be.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Smith has never recovered from his early NHL treatment and overplay in the AHL.

He's just not a good player. Has nothing to do with any "treatment" or "overplay in the AHL", those are just silly excuses. Low hockey IQ is a real thing and Smith suffers from it.

 

[Frk It]

To be fair though, you also openly hate Smith.

Not at all.

But my stats imply he should be on the bench.

I think he has one of the largest hearts on the team. But if he whiffs on a pass and it becomes a turnover, i mark him down for it, just like anyone else.

I think this type of exercise is impossible to do without at least some level of bias. I mean, we are humans after all. Especially if you are doing it for your team as opposed to a neutral team.

One of the big reasons I personally don't attempt it. That and I am not good at focusing or sitting still, lol.

He's just not a good player. Has nothing to do with any "treatment" or "overplay in the AHL", those are just silly excuses. Low hockey IQ is a real thing and Smith suffers from it.

Probably, yup.

For whatever it's worth, the 14 games he played in 11-12 is the best hockey I have ever seen Brendan Smith play. Better than the playoff series against Boston. I do wonder what would have happened if we kept him up and let him build on that, at least from a curiosity standpoint.

 

[Henkka]

Olso some Fenwick stats strengthen the "opinion", than Smith has been worst defenceman defensively. Highest 5-on-5 close shot attempts against on the team and relatively one of the worst in the league.

And when considering, that he is not logging any kind of shut-down duty tough minutes, it's just more alarming.

When eye-tested data matches with advanced stats, it would be very easy to do decisions as a GM.

I hope this showcasing won't last much longer. They should just start splitting games between Ouellet and Sproul, and move on.

 

[BinCookin]

Olso some Fenwick stats strengthen the "opinion", than Smith has been worst defenceman defensively. Highest 5-on-5 close shot attempts against on the team and relatively one of the worst in the league.

And when considering, that he is not logging any kind of shut-down duty tough minutes, it's just more alarming.

When eye-tested data matches with advanced stats, it would be very easy to do decisions as a GM.

I hope this showcasing won't last much longer. They should just start splitting games between Ouellet and Sproul, and move on.

To be clear: Both Ouellet and Sproul did a fine job by my scoring system on the 3rd pairing. Obviously Sproul scored more offensive positive plays, and Ouellet more defensive positive plays. But overall, both were mostly helping the team.
I know 3rd pairing would be different from 2nd pairing or 1st pairing, but I think Smith has more than earned a few nights in the press Box. While Sproul and XO (I know there is not room for both) seem to deserve more time.

 

[BinCookin]

DET vs TB

Green(2-3)
1-15:11(-) Moved up and shot, skated in but missed net lead to 2on1
1-13:30(-) Turnover
2-16:35(+) nice rush into zone, and pass into the center
2-11:51(-) Delay of Game penalty
2-5:01(+) good shot on goal

DDK(-1)
2-1:00(-) intercepted pass

Marchenko(-1)
1-19:15(-) Poor play at the boards.

Smith(4-3)
1-18:13(+) good defensive play and pass
1-15:54(-) turnover and recovery
1-6:04(-) turnover pass to no one in front of net
2-18:05(+) Good rush to the puck, and tape pass out of the zone
2-17:05(+) nice patience along boards, flip puck out
2-8:53(+) good join on the rush
3-5:35(-) turnover leading to 1-1 partial break

Ericsson(2)
1-9:13(+) good defensive play and chip out under pressure
2-15:38(+) good poke check

Sproul(4)
1-12:33(+) nice fast pass to set up scoring chance
2-5:01(+) nice short pass
3-12:48(+) Goal!
3-10:23(+) good shot on goal, assist

Overall Good games from Sproul / Ericsson
Smith was actually positive today. Which was nice.