BinCookin's Defensive Scoring

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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I don't take this as the gospel, but I really think Marchenko needs to stay as a regular on this team from what I have seen from him so far in conjunction with his advanced stats.

Also, I know that the giveaway/takeaway stats are somewhat flawed, but a little concerning Ericsson has almost 2x as many giveaways as anyone else.
 
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JPE123

Registered User
Jan 23, 2013
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Marchy is starting to remind me of a Brad Stuart type. Not flashy just solid
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,335
14,839
Marchy is starting to remind me of a Brad Stuart type. Not flashy just solid

Ryan Martin did make this comparison as well. Stu was way more rugged and had more of an edge, but March has been quietly very efficient.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,280
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Shut-down pair has most shots against? Like always.

And 3rd pair with easier matchups and offensive zone starts gets lot of shots for? Like always.

Nothing to see on those stats. BinCookin's eye-test just works so much better.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,335
14,839
Shut-down pair has most shots against. Like always.

And 3rd pair with easier matchups and offensive zone starts gets lot of shots for. Like always.

Doesn't seem to be affecting Green who has seen quite some time on the top pair, while it reflects terribly on Ericsson who has been off the top pair for some time.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,280
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Doesn't seem to be affecting Green who has seen quite some time on the top pair, while it reflects terribly on Ericsson who has been off the top pair for some time.

Kronwall-Ericsson was the shut-down pair when Dekeyser and/or Green was out of the lineup. That's why Kronwall has more corsi minuses (relatively) than Green and Ericsson has more corsi minuses (relatively) than Dekeyser from those games.

All comes from the usage. It tells us that, but kind of nothing about individual differencies. Eye-test data works perfectly with that.

So, there's still nothing to see in here (at Corsi numbers). It's a team stat.
 
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Flowah

Registered User
Nov 30, 2009
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Ryan Martin did make this comparison as well. Stu was way more rugged and had more of an edge, but March has been quietly very efficient.

I guess he doesn't lay people out as much, but Marchy doesn't shy from contact at all. He will get physical on people in our zone and he's willing to take a hit to make a play as he's done several times this season.
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
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London, ON
Haven't updated this in a while So I hope you guys will like it.

I did games from Dec 26th - Jan 10th (I am missing Dec 5th-25th)

Here is my updated stats:

View attachment 87111

Here is how the Defensemen currently rank (Year long Data Minus the time listed above).

1) Green
1) Kronwall (Tied with Green)
2) Quincey (Based off of 7 GP only)
3) Marchenko
4) Dekeyser
5) Ericsson
6) Kindl
7) Smith

Should be noted Smith has played well lately closing his gap on kindl's stats.

Marchenko has really moved up based on good play and lack of mistakes.

Players with most positive plays per game: Kronwall, Green, Quincey and Smith.
Players with least mistakes per game: Marchenko, Dekeyser, Kronwall, Green.

It should be noted Ericsson is not on either list. Nor Kindl. This is likely why Kindl was our bottom guy, eventually getting scratched and then finally waived. Ericsson we are locked in with. So we simply have to hope he plays better, but according to my data, he should currently be on the 3rd pairing.

My Ideal Lineup:

Kronwall-Green
Marchenko-Quincey
Dekeyser-Ericsson

Smith #7.
 
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Fugu

RIP Barb
Nov 26, 2004
36,952
220
϶(°o°)ϵ
And by normal +/- ranking, Dekeyser, Smith and E are all +6, which puts them behind Larkin, Richards and Dats on the team, overall. :huh:
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
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Interesting concept for a statistic - we've discussed the need (and the methodology) for subjective statistics over on the By The Numbers forum.

Fugu brings up a great point earlier in the thread - there are "good" plays and then there are "GOOD" plays; similarly with "bad" plays and "BAD" plays. If you wanted to calibrate the levels for different plays, you could look (objectively) at the relationship between those plays and goals being score (or win probabilities changing; a mistake in a tied game situation isn't the same as the identical mistake in an 8-2 game).

Ideally, you would have multiple people (and at least one non-Detroit fan) doing these evaluations and credibility weighting the results - having a single viewer will enhance the likelihood that narrative and/or confirmation biases will sneak into the results.

For that matter, how are confirmation biases (for instance - I think Datsyuk is the awesomest thing since awesome, so when I watch games I view Datsyuk in that light, and lo and behold! He scores well in my evalatuations) controlled for? Or narrative biases, for that matter? Daniel Kahneman's book, "Thinking Fast and Slow", is something that I can't recommend enough for fans of behavioral topics. The most compelling thing about the book (my opinion) is that he'll tell you in advance that "this is EXACTLY how I'm going to trick your brain". You say, "No, that's ridiculous", and then you go and do exactly what he said that you would.

One of the bias problems stems from watching games on television - even if you're unbiased, the people running the broadcast decide exactly what angle you're going to see, how often you'll see replays, and (if you have the sound on) how important every play is.

Anyhow, I like the concept, but it could be worth tightening a few of the levers and dials. These issues are likely what's causing a few of the head-scratching results.
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
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London, ON
Interesting concept for a statistic - we've discussed the need (and the methodology) for subjective statistics over on the By The Numbers forum.

Fugu brings up a great point earlier in the thread - there are "good" plays and then there are "GOOD" plays; similarly with "bad" plays and "BAD" plays. If you wanted to calibrate the levels for different plays, you could look (objectively) at the relationship between those plays and goals being score (or win probabilities changing; a mistake in a tied game situation isn't the same as the identical mistake in an 8-2 game).

Ideally, you would have multiple people (and at least one non-Detroit fan) doing these evaluations and credibility weighting the results - having a single viewer will enhance the likelihood that narrative and/or confirmation biases will sneak into the results.

For that matter, how are confirmation biases (for instance - I think Datsyuk is the awesomest thing since awesome, so when I watch games I view Datsyuk in that light, and lo and behold! He scores well in my evalatuations) controlled for? Or narrative biases, for that matter? Daniel Kahneman's book, "Thinking Fast and Slow", is something that I can't recommend enough for fans of behavioral topics. The most compelling thing about the book (my opinion) is that he'll tell you in advance that "this is EXACTLY how I'm going to trick your brain". You say, "No, that's ridiculous", and then you go and do exactly what he said that you would.

One of the bias problems stems from watching games on television - even if you're unbiased, the people running the broadcast decide exactly what angle you're going to see, how often you'll see replays, and (if you have the sound on) how important every play is.

Anyhow, I like the concept, but it could be worth tightening a few of the levers and dials. These issues are likely what's causing a few of the head-scratching results.

Oh I agree with everything posted here. I have been meaning to change the title of this thread but i dont exactly know how.

To just BinCookin's Defensive Scores.

I have tried to recruit people around here to eliminate these types of bias's. But to be quite frank, its an impossible score to accomplish since I am the only one doing it.

Lets be clear: This is not a real advanced stat.
It would require many people and a more stringent set of rules.

I can say that its interesting to me, and thats why i run the stats.
Mostly I don't care who scores the highest. I am also a scientist by trade. So lets say I try to minimize bias, But quite frankly we would need like 20 people doing this for it to be a real stat. And that will never happen.
 

Fugu

RIP Barb
Nov 26, 2004
36,952
220
϶(°o°)ϵ
I changed the title.

Good points by Doc No, and yes, you're right that you'd need a few more people to remove the error potential in the project.
 

The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
41,010
11,663
Ft. Myers, FL
Interesting concept for a statistic - we've discussed the need (and the methodology) for subjective statistics over on the By The Numbers forum.

Fugu brings up a great point earlier in the thread - there are "good" plays and then there are "GOOD" plays; similarly with "bad" plays and "BAD" plays. If you wanted to calibrate the levels for different plays, you could look (objectively) at the relationship between those plays and goals being score (or win probabilities changing; a mistake in a tied game situation isn't the same as the identical mistake in an 8-2 game).

Ideally, you would have multiple people (and at least one non-Detroit fan) doing these evaluations and credibility weighting the results - having a single viewer will enhance the likelihood that narrative and/or confirmation biases will sneak into the results.

For that matter, how are confirmation biases (for instance - I think Datsyuk is the awesomest thing since awesome, so when I watch games I view Datsyuk in that light, and lo and behold! He scores well in my evalatuations) controlled for? Or narrative biases, for that matter? Daniel Kahneman's book, "Thinking Fast and Slow", is something that I can't recommend enough for fans of behavioral topics. The most compelling thing about the book (my opinion) is that he'll tell you in advance that "this is EXACTLY how I'm going to trick your brain". You say, "No, that's ridiculous", and then you go and do exactly what he said that you would.

One of the bias problems stems from watching games on television - even if you're unbiased, the people running the broadcast decide exactly what angle you're going to see, how often you'll see replays, and (if you have the sound on) how important every play is.

Anyhow, I like the concept, but it could be worth tightening a few of the levers and dials. These issues are likely what's causing a few of the head-scratching results.

This is kind of how I feel about DK's rankings in this system. I see him go unpunished for a lot of similar mistakes to the other guys.

With that said DK makes a lot of subtle plays that are good but maybe not GOOD plays, so he probably hurts there as well. A lot of times he thwarts something before it has the potential to wow you. But his turnovers in the corner or loose clears are not punished every time like they are for Smith, Kronwall and Ericsson in my opinion. He will get passes there like nobody made themselves available or at least he buried it in the corner and tried to eat it in the corner and lasted longer, well he still made a turnover with the puck...
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,379
London, ON
This is kind of how I feel about DK's rankings in this system. I see him go unpunished for a lot of similar mistakes to the other guys.

With that said DK makes a lot of subtle plays that are good but maybe not GOOD plays, so he probably hurts there as well. A lot of times he thwarts something before it has the potential to wow you. But his turnovers in the corner or loose clears are not punished every time like they are for Smith, Kronwall and Ericsson in my opinion. He will get passes there like nobody made themselves available or at least he buried it in the corner and tried to eat it in the corner and lasted longer, well he still made a turnover with the puck...

Ill be online tonight to do the Arizona game. So Ill give you guys a solid breakdown of my scores tonight. But I do try to penalize DK just as much as anyone else. As I said, I do it to see who comes out on top for the season, its an academic effort. But if you also score tonights game, see what you get, and ill average everyone's scores.

(Even if you do just 1 period, cause ill break my stats down by period)
 

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,273
4,468
Boston, MA
The problem with this are many but mostly come back to that without cross sectional and longitudinal data these numbers are meaningless. Are Kronwall and Green the two best D on Detroit? Sure they are. But I can tell you that without your numbers. How do they compare to others across the league? Or those throughout history? It's impossible to tell. It could be that they are the two most underrated D-men ever and your numbers point to that, or it could be that if this were expanded to all teams over 20+ years that they are the worst two top pairings in the history of the game.
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,379
London, ON
The problem with this are many but mostly come back to that without cross sectional and longitudinal data these numbers are meaningless. Are Kronwall and Green the two best D on Detroit? Sure they are. But I can tell you that without your numbers. How do they compare to others across the league? Or those throughout history? It's impossible to tell. It could be that they are the two most underrated D-men ever and your numbers point to that, or it could be that if this were expanded to all teams over 20+ years that they are the worst two top pairings in the history of the game.

The numbers are clearly this season only and comparative to each other. Thus in context i compare Quincey to DK over many games. Obviously this does not compare to anything other than the Detroit D men. But that is Obvious now isnt it.

The main point of this is IF you were to record similar stats YOU might be surprised at your results. Try it.
 

redwingsphan

Registered User
Apr 25, 2014
325
0
The numbers are clearly this season only and comparative to each other. Thus in context i compare Quincey to DK over many games. Obviously this does not compare to anything other than the Detroit D men. But that is Obvious now isnt it.

The main point of this is IF you were to record similar stats YOU might be surprised at your results. Try it.

I like to check up on how you see the d. It's obvious that with only one person doing a real time breakdown that it won't be perfect, but it's still better than "this guy sucks, or that guy is great".
 

ap3x

Registered User
Jan 31, 2014
5,971
0
Stockholm
Here you go:

[...]

Here is how I have been scoring players:

Each player receives a + (plus) or a - (minus) for good plays and bad plays they make during the game. This is of course a subjective rating system, and I will include in these stats anyone else that wants to keep tabs on the defenders during a game.

Examples:

Examples of a Minus (-) = Turnovers, non-pressured icing, fumbles, bad loss of board battle, really bad pass, bad/careless penalty
Examples of a Plus (+) = Nice Break out pass (usually underpressure to infront of our net), great offensive play, great pass, great hit, good poke check etc etc.

I occasionally give -2 if a player screws up and virtually causes a goal by himself.

Note: The exact scoring system is not as important, as the fact that all the D-men are being viewed closely by the same standards)

[...]
 

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,273
4,468
Boston, MA
The numbers are clearly this season only and comparative to each other. Thus in context i compare Quincey to DK over many games. Obviously this does not compare to anything other than the Detroit D men. But that is Obvious now isnt it.

The main point of this is IF you were to record similar stats YOU might be surprised at your results. Try it.

I use statistics in my professional life, if I used them when I try to unwind I would soon become one of those scientists who wear a lab coat knocking around the house. My point is that these numbers really don't provide much context or even more insight than what the eye test would give. Yeah, Kronwall and Green are Detroit's two best defenders, but, if this team had 5 Meechs and Kindl on defense Kindl would be the best according to the stats. It really becomes a 'so what?' thing. It'd be a lot more telling if we could compare this to even other D-men in the division to see where our defenders fell.
 

chances14

Registered User
Jan 7, 2010
10,405
517
Michigan
I use statistics in my professional life, if I used them when I try to unwind I would soon become one of those scientists who wear a lab coat knocking around the house. My point is that these numbers really don't provide much context or even more insight than what the eye test would give. Yeah, Kronwall and Green are Detroit's two best defenders, but, if this team had 5 Meechs and Kindl on defense Kindl would be the best according to the stats. It really becomes a 'so what?' thing. It'd be a lot more telling if we could compare this to even other D-men in the division to see where our defenders fell.

bincookin can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this stats idea was originally started to counteract the certain anti player biases that are prevalent on the wings board and especially the game day threads regarding our defense.

I don't think this was ever intended to compare how good our defensman are to the rest of the league. It was simply to compare how well the wings defensman are playing within themselves
 

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