BinCookin's Defensive Scoring

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,224
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Tampere, Finland
Didn't notice until the replay Marchenko was stripped from the 2nd pair by the middle of the 1st period. Here's my strange and skewed D scoring summary:

Green +12
Ouellet +6
Ericsson +5
Smith 0
DeKeyser -1
Marchenko -1

Regardless of his score in my book DeKeyser had a good game. I agree with you BC he and Green are heads above our other D men. Another thing, the replay showed me our forwards were the letdown. Bizarre we hear how terrible the D is and our forwards play like complete ****.

This is what happens, when your shut-down pair can't play much with the puck. Guys who shine in any statistics, are the offensive defencemen against easier (or tougher) competiton.

And guys who take the best opposite offensive players against, will get burned in any data, because you can't shut down all offence ever from best offensive players. They still could have a good game, like you said.
 

avssuc

Hockey is for everyone!
May 1, 2016
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340
Gulf Coast
Again I will be composing "Defensive Advanced Stats" for the Red Wings this year. I will also enjoy anyone else who wants to help, and combine your scores with mine.

NOTE I AM UPDATING THIS POST after each game
Currently up to date For all games in 2015-2016.

Here is how I have been scoring players:

Each player receives a + (plus) or a - (minus) for good plays and bad plays they make during the game...

:laugh:

Not to sound like a jerk, but...

Calling them "Defensive Advanced Stats" is a bit dishonest. "Armchair Defensive Scouting" is probably more appropriate. When you use the term 'advanced stats', you imply something scientific. I'm not someone that lives and dies with analytics, but this is really just internet scouting by faceless and nameless folks. Just one big thread of "hot takes" really. Again, not trying to hate, just pointing out the very suspect wording here.

[MOD]
 
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Mount Suribachi

Registered User
Nov 15, 2013
4,247
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England
I think you're being very unfair to BC. He totally acknowledges his scoring system is subjective, and constantly invites feedback from other posters.

This scoring system had its origins as an attempt to provide a counter (or support) to the constant "Smith sucks!", "Ericsson sucks!" in every PGT. I don't post in it much, but it provides interesting reading, especially as the season builds and all the pluses and minuses start to build a coherent picture.
 

njx9

Registered User
Feb 1, 2016
2,161
340
That dive was so bad it deserved at least 3 minuses :P

Ha, I had 3 to start, but I figured he was at least initially in position to make a play. Maybe Vanek needs to teach him how to time those better; he had one great diving break-up earlier.

I don't think it's possible to watch the actual "game" live and score our D. It wouldn't be fun either because you naturally want to watch all the players on both teams. On a replay (which realistically only takes 60 minutes) I'm able to stare and focus literally on just our defensemen and give a proper evaluation.

In my version of the scoring system I try and judge every touch of the puck and effect say based on positioning. It's either a + or -. Doesn't make sense to base a score on only a few passes, etc. we happened to notice.

Yeah, I tried to gauge every play that wasn't just simple (player A passes to player B passes to player C, none remarkable or good/bad). It did seem like the D hung back an awful lot, and were even tangentially involved in plays relatively infrequently. I'm not sure if that's good (they weren't needed as much back on defense) or bad (they were almost completely uninvolved in the offensive zone), or if it just is.

All that said, I continue to think that neither Marchenko nor Ouellet should be anything other than bottom pairing guys, at best. Ericsson seems to be playing far less poorly this season. Green is our best defenseman, and DDK is playing over his head. He's not bad, but leaning on him to play 1D isn't great. Nothing others haven't been saying for a while, though.
 

ap3x

Registered User
Jan 31, 2014
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Stockholm
I think you're being very unfair to BC. He totally acknowledges his scoring system is subjective, and constantly invites feedback from other posters.

This scoring system had its origins as an attempt to provide a counter (or support) to the constant "Smith sucks!", "Ericsson sucks!" in every PGT. I don't post in it much, but it provides interesting reading, especially as the season builds and all the pluses and minuses start to build a coherent picture.

That's how I took it as well. And it is interesting to compare to your perception indeed.
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,377
London, ON
:laugh:

Not to sound like a jerk, but...

Calling them "Defensive Advanced Stats" is a bit dishonest. "Armchair Defensive Scouting" is probably more appropriate. When you use the term 'advanced stats', you imply something scientific. I'm not someone that lives and dies with analytics, but this is really just internet scouting by faceless and nameless folks. Just one big thread of "hot takes" really. Again, not trying to hate, just pointing out the very suspect wording here.

[MOD]

Sorry the post is a year old. Ive altered the post to just call it defensive scoring. The title was changed a while ago, but missed that bit. I understand "advanced stats" gets into a debate with others.

Either way, the original post should be more clear to what I am doing now.
 
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BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,377
London, ON
NJX's 2nd Period Score
2 Smith - +3 -2
65 Dekeyser - +2 -3
53 Marchenko - -2
52 Ericsson - +1 -2
61 Ouellet - +1 -1
25 Green - +3

My 2nd Period
DDK -> +2 -1
Green -> +2 -1
Ericsson
Smith -> -1
Marchenko -> -2
XO -> +1


Here are my scores from our WIN (weeeee) yesterday:

DET vs OTT

1st Period


DDK
(+1) Solid play on the 3on2
Green
(-1) Hookin penalty
(+1) Good Shot- Goal
(+1) PPG
Ericsson
(+1) great defence on a 3on2 taking his man down.
Smith
(+1) quick shot on net.
(-1) turnover fail to clear zone.
Marchenko
(+1) cleared a lose puck in front of the net.
(+1) good step up during the cycle.
XO
(+1) for rush and pressure on the goalie.
(+1) Great fast pass/clear to Z, assist on goal.


2nd Period

DDK
(+) Nice flip pass breaking out of the zone.
(-) Pass Turnover in own end.
(+) Shot Block, then Hit, to recover puck.
Green
(+) Powerplay passing great.
(+) Good pass under pressure
(-) Holding Penalty
Ericsson
Smith
(-) 2on1 I didn't like how he played it..arguably he did the right thing though, but he slid too far.
Marchenko
(-) Giveaway pass to the blue line
(-) poor clear..turnover
XO
(+) nice quick shot on net


3rd Period

DDK
(+) well played 1on1
Green
(+) 4on4 nice skate out
(+) Hat Trick!
Ericsson
Smith
(+) 4on4 nice skating rush
Marchenko
(+) Nice pass deflection
XO
(+) nice D-D pass under pressure


OVERALL
DDK -> +4 -1
Green -> +6 -2
Ericsson -> +1 -0
Marchenko -> +4 -2
XO -> +4 -0
Smith -> +2 -2

Accounting for averaging with NJX's scores:

OVERALL
DDK -> +4 -2
Green -> +7 -2
Ericsson -> +1 -1
Marchenko -> +4 -2
XO -> +4 -1
Smith -> +3 -2
 

njx9

Registered User
Feb 1, 2016
2,161
340
Yeah, I need to figure out how to get a rewind. There were at least a few plays I just guessed at (thus the timestamps, in case I guessed wrong). Worse was the terrible resolution (thanks Comcast); trying to separate which set of blurred pixels was which number was fairly migraine inducing. Full credit for doing this on multiple full games; it's a lot of work.
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
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London, ON
Yeah, I need to figure out how to get a rewind. There were at least a few plays I just guessed at (thus the timestamps, in case I guessed wrong). Worse was the terrible resolution (thanks Comcast); trying to separate which set of blurred pixels was which number was fairly migraine inducing. Full credit for doing this on multiple full games; it's a lot of work.

The important part isnt that I do a perfect job each game.

Today Green scored well... obviously.

And no D man had a "horrible game".

If my score is +7 -2 for green
or +5 -1, or +6 -3.
The overall generality of his score is recorded. (positive day)

The main point here is to over time, develop a true value for the D men (role considering)

Obviously it will be easier for XO to do well in comparison to Marchenko when he got top line, and XO gets 3rd pairing minutes. But my scores have been in-line with how Blashill has been promoting or demoting D men.

Do not be surprised as Ericsson moves up the lineup, or even XO maybe tested on the 2nd pairing, as Marchenko and Smith slowly move down the lineup until they start scoring betting.

I understand this is subjective. But people usually just cant remember how good or bad a defenseman actually did in any one game. Than posters claim someone is our worst defenseman. I look at my numbers and say "hey" Hes actually our 2nd best D man.

Such was a case with Quincey's numbers last year.
 

njx9

Registered User
Feb 1, 2016
2,161
340
DDK - 6+ 3- (pretty steady as usual, most of the time didn't need to make plays because he put himself into a good spot on the ice to take away a zone or a man)
lost possession behind net -
good pass off boards leading to chance +
stopped 3v2 +
good pass out of zone +
bad turnover in front of net --
great positioning (x3) +++

Ericsson - 3+ 2-
Let NYR player maneuver in front of net -
manhandled by Kreider -
good shot +
great pass +
great zone hold +

Marchenko - 2+ 5-
poor pinch -
good carry into zone +
great pass to scoring chance +
poor (smith-like) dive -
failed to clear goal area -
turnover -
penalty -

Ouellet - 1+ 5- (seemed to vanish after the first period, not sure if minutes decreased, or playing so conservatively they might as well have. worst player on the ice most of the time he was on the ice)
good pinch +
terrible turnover --
o zone turnover -
badly beat on breakaway --

Green - 5+ 2-
good pass in for chance +
poor, unhandleable pass -
stopped 3v2 +
good pass out of zone +
good pass to nielsen for assist +
terrible pp clear -
good shot +

Smith - 4+ 8- (when he made bad plays, they were bad, but was otherwise fairly effective. same old story.)
good cut off on rush +
good outlet pass +
bad jump/gamble -
terrible SH turnover ---
good carry in +
terrible job getting back --
good penalty +
took penalty -
poor clear -
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,377
London, ON
Nice job NJX.

Here was mine:

DDK
(-) Deflected a pass in front of his own net
(+) nice move to go right to the net
(-) intercepted pass
Green
(-) poor outlet pass
(+) nice walk the half moon line o-zone
Ericsson
(-) Poor pass
(-) out of position
(-) allowed player to cut right to the net
(+) nice shot on net
(-) Icingx2
Smith
(+) Good pass up the middle
(+) nice between the legs pass to exit the zone.
(-) trying to reach that flip pass
(-) turnover breakaway against
(-) Penalty on Kreider
(+) Good fast pass
(+) Good Rush, draws penalty for 5on3
Marchenko
(-) Poor pinch odd man rush
(-) poor pinch odd man rush, they fumbled it
(-) Hooking
(+) Nicely controlled dump just short of icing to get 3D men off the ice
XO
(+) Puck on net.
(+) nice rush, decked 2 people
(-) turnover
(-) for losing the man next to him right after who got an amazing shot on net
(+) quick pass out of zone.
(-) beaten on flip pass play.
(+) nice backhand pass


Summary:

XO +4 -3
Smith +4 -3
Green +1 -1
DDK +1 -2
Marchenko +1 -3
Ericsson +1 -4

NJX's score:
DDK - 6+ 3-
Green - 5+ 2-
Ericsson - 3+ 2-
Marchenko - 2+ 5-
Ouellet - 1+ 5-
Smith - 4+ 8-


you scored a few things that didnt rate (good positioning), I like it, Here are our "roughly" combined scores:

Green +4 -1
DDK +5 -2
Ericsson +2 -3
XO +2 -4
Smith +4 -6
Marchenko +2 -4
 

njx9

Registered User
Feb 1, 2016
2,161
340
Marchenko off to a rough start so far. I thought he looked good for Russia in WCoH too.

I think the issue for Marchenko (and XO, for that matter) is that he's having to play over his head a lot more this year. I think what we're seeing is that all of our defense, with the exception of Green, isn't really being put into the best position to succeed, but that this is unfortunately largely out of necessity. DDK isn't playing poorly, but he'd be one of the best 3D in the league (and probably a really, really good 2D), if we had better parts around him. Green is great as an offensive specialist, but I'm not sure we can shelter him all season. Marchenko and XO could be just fine on a bottom pairing, but they're very limited as soon as they have to play above that. E is, similarly, a pretty decent player on that bottom pair, but we've spend the last two years seeing him on the top pair where he was mostly overmatched. I dunno. Our players aren't really bad, they just need to be playing a pair below where they're generally played.

What's interesting to me is that the lineup moves seem to follow this trend: a guy looks great when he plays in the appropriate role, so Blash moves him up where he looks overmatched/bad so Blash moves him down to an appropriate role where he looks great so Blash... etc. I don't know what the coaching staff should really do here, since there's no way to run the pairs out there that doesn't put a guy in a poor position, but it really makes clear how badly our defensive personnel have been mismanaged for the last 5+ years (whether we should have traded, drafted or signed better players is an argument for several other threads). I expect that, at some point, the coaches and players will find some kind of shaky equilibrium where no one is in a horrible position, but no one's really in a great position, either.
 

borisbadenough

Registered User
Mar 25, 2013
1,234
13
:laugh:

Not to sound like a jerk, but...

Calling them "Defensive Advanced Stats" is a bit dishonest. "Armchair Defensive Scouting" is probably more appropriate. When you use the term 'advanced stats', you imply something scientific. I'm not someone that lives and dies with analytics, but this is really just internet scouting by faceless and nameless folks. Just one big thread of "hot takes" really. Again, not trying to hate, just pointing out the very suspect wording here.

[MOD]

One could make a pretty good argument that none of the hockey related advanced stats/analytics are not scientific.
 
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Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,224
12,225
Tampere, Finland
Here's my eye-tested offensive data. Pen and paper. I've collected all 4 games and put them together.


First of all, I inform something about the point-scoring system. This is how it goes:

3p = Goal
1p = Assist (2p, if quality assist)

2p = Quality scoring chance
1p = Scoring attempt (not blocked)

2p = Assisted Quality scoring chance
1p = Assisted scoring attempt

2p = Screen for a goal
1p = Screen for an attempt or chance
1p = Other good offensive play which did lead to an attempt or a chance, (Drawn penalty, Takeaway, Off.Zone.Faceoff win etc.)

2p = Other defensive play which did prevent opposite Quality chance (pass interception, block etc.)
1p = Other Defensive play, which did prevent opposite attempt (Blocked shot, good clear/takeaway on penalty kill etc.)

Last year I did have a system which did weighed all scoring attempt with same value. That was very misleading. As for now, this kind of 3-point weighted-scale still includes amounts of scoring attempts, but also weights them differently. From latest web analyzes I've found from the web, shots from High-Danger slot have at least double probablity to go in, so that has been the reasoning for this kind of system. It should determine well our scoring power.

Some teams shoot more some teams less. Some teams are weak and some teams are strong. Team which will shoot less, are not always weak teams. They could shoot less, but they won't play bad because they shoot more from high-danger slot. Less shots, more goals. Some teams shoot like mad, but from Low-danger zones, to get rebound in front of the net. I try to bring these differencies up in overall, when I analyze teams, but I'm also collecting data from individuals at same time. Overall, strong teams will shoot a lot and really strong teams shoot a lot from high-danger zone.

Here are our boys so far on my scale:

Player, (Goals+Assists) + (Chances+AllAttempts) + (CreatedQuality+AllCreatedAttempts) + (Screens+OtherGoodOffensivePlay+GoodDefensivePlay) = Total

W Tomas Tatar, (0+1) + (8+15) + (2+3) + (4+3+1) = 37 (So at First there's raw points scored, then at second there's all shooting data, at third there's playmaking/creating data and at last are intangibles)
LW Tomas Vanek, 3+3 + 3+7 + 4+10 + 3+3+0 = 36
W H.Zetterberg, 0+2 + 4+6 + 5+15 + 2+1+0 = 35
C Frans Nielsen, 1+2 + 3+8 + 4+11 + 2+1+0 = 32
C Dylan Larkin, 0+1 + 3+9 + 3+13 + 1+1+0 = 31
C Darren Helm, 3+0 + 8+9 + 1+2 + 0+2+3 = 28
C Glendening, 0+2 + 1+4 + 4+6 + 2+2+6 = 27
W R.Sheahan, 0+1 + 4+9 + 1+4 + 2+0+3 = 24
RW G.Nyquist, 0+3 + 2+3 + 3+8 + 0+1+1 = 21
RW Abdelkader, 0+0 + 2+4 + 0+3 + 4+2+2 = 17
W Athanasiou, 0+0 + 1+3 + 1+3 + 0+0+0 = 8
RW Steve Ott, 0+0 + 0+1 + 0+0 + 0+0+0 = 1

RD M.Green, 3+2 + 3+7 + 3+6 + 0+0+3 = 27
LD DeKeyser, 1+0 + 1+4 + 2+5 + 0+0+10 = 23
LD Ericsson, 0+0 + 0+6 + 1+3 + 0+1+4 = 15
LD B.Smith, 0+0 + 3+5 + 1+3 + 0+1+2 = 15
RD Marchenko, 0+0 + 0+2 + 1+5 + 1+0+6 = 15
RD Ouellet, 0+1 + 0+1 + 0+2 + 0+0+3 = 7

Tatar (37 points) has not scored much goals/points yet, but that doesn't say that he has been bad. Tats has had most chances, but has also had unbelieveable bad puck luck. He had glorious chances both against Sens and Rags, but they just din't go in. Soon they will go, if he just keeps repeating the shot volume and finds those good areas from where to score. He has most high-danger shots (8) together with Helm. Helm has just had the puck luck. This will equalize on the long run. Everybody knows Tatar can score and he has been best getting chances at even strentgh.

Vanek (36 points) has scored most real points and has looked very dangerous on the PP. But, his data mostly comes from there (17 points of all 36 are from PP) and at is average at even strength.

Zetterberg (35 points) has been the best playmaker by far, with 15 created attempts for a teammate with 5 quality created chances. He also thrives on the PP, but has been average at ES, just like Vanek.

Nielsen (32 points) has been quite good overall, scored some points, has had nice amount of attempts, also created some, and had also some intangibles like screens and key faceoff wins. This is what Frans Nielsen is, great overall player.

Dylan Larkin (31 points) hasn't had the puck luck like he had year before, but has contributed almost at identical level and data distribution than Nielsen. Only points are missing.

Helm (28 points) has scored three goals as been a surprising scoring threat with many high-danger chances. He hasn't created many chances for teammates, but has been strong on intangibles side. Drawn penalties and good defensive plays.

Glendening (27 points) has surprised most. Has been strongest forward defensively, with also some offense.

Riley Sheahan (24 points) has been kind of mediocre. Has shot attempts, but those seem to be weak usually. Doesn't create, has some intangibles, goes net-front and defends well. Should be put to defensive line, imo.

Nyquist (21 points) is underachieving again. We should expect more from him. He has had 3 assists, but his total amount of created chances per ice-time is only 10th best. That's unacceptable for a TOP9 forward, or, lets say, our 3rd high-priced scoring forward. Also, that 2nd PP has not worked at all with him running it.

Drew Miller (21 points) has also been a big surprise. Goes hand-in-hand with Glendening.

Abdelkader (17 points) has been bad. He was same also at World Cup. Only thing he has been good is those intangibles with 8 points. Goes net-front, forechecks, draws penalties, defends well and blocks shots. Of course important teamwork, but we should expect more from him at scoring department.

Athanasiou (8 points) is struggling. Nothing is working for him. Has looked like Jurco after a back injury. If he doesn't get adjusted soon, I think is better to swap him in AHL and bring Manthrax in.

Steve Ott (1 point) had one weak attempt on his only game he played. Also started that fight which did wake up "sleeping" Tampa on the season opener and we lost the momentum after that. Deserved to be benched.



***

I'm not going to analyze any defencemen from my data, because I like that BinCookin system more. My data is just "who creates offense". I don't count bad plays, just some cardinal mistakes. I hope I'll insert in some kind of plus/minus system at some day, but time for that is not now. Have to "develop" my eye at first for this current system. But it was an interesting to find out that DeKeyser has most good defensive plays (10) on my notes and Smith has least (2).
 
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njx9

Registered User
Feb 1, 2016
2,161
340
I'm not going to analyze any defencemen from my data, because I like that BinCookin system more. My data is just "who creates offense". I don't count bad plays, just some cardinal mistakes. I hope I'll insert in some kind of plus/minus system at some day, but time for that is not now. Have to "develop" my eye at first for this current system. But it was an interesting to find out that DeKeyser has most good defensive plays (10) on my notes and Smith has least (2).

I think the biggest benefit to including bad plays, is that you start to see a big delta for guys who are risk takers. Smith gets a lot of pluses during a game, but they're almost always countered by a bunch of minuses. It gives you a feel for a guy who might contribute heavily in one zone, but who's an absolute disaster in the other.

Either way, nice work; keeping track of anything over an entire game is a surprisingly large amount of work.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,224
12,225
Tampere, Finland
I think the biggest benefit to including bad plays, is that you start to see a big delta for guys who are risk takers. Smith gets a lot of pluses during a game, but they're almost always countered by a bunch of minuses. It gives you a feel for a guy who might contribute heavily in one zone, but who's an absolute disaster in the other.

Yep, many times I have been seeing about some good defensive play, that it was only a "save" from same guy, who first did a mistake.

So those I keep tracking as zero. If Mike Green makes a mistake, and DeKeyser saves, it, then +1 for Dany D.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,224
12,225
Tampere, Finland
Tatar scored, Abdelkader was also great and Nyquist almost doubled all his offensive effort against Nashville.

Now time to keep this up for all underachievers! :)
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,377
London, ON
My Scores from the NSH game:

DET vs NSH


DDK (+4-2)
(+) Good puck to the net
(+) great pass under pressure in the middle to get out of zone quick
(-) giveaway pass right to Neal in dangerous area
(+) nice defensive play
(-) Delay of game
(+) nice positioning

Green (+3-1)
(+) nice fast pass
(-) Turnover
(+) joined the rush
(+) Green assist

Ericsson (+1-1)
(+) nice pass up the middle
(-) was walked

Smith (+2-4)
(-) intercept able pass
(+) nice pinch to put the puck on net.
(-) Smith Horrible turnover in front of his own net.
(-) Smith didn't rush hard to fix his mistake
(-) out of position goal 2
(+) Shot

Marchenko (+4-1)
(+) shot on net
(+) good play at the line
(+) Good tip-able shot to the front of the net
(+) Good pass (assist)
(-) Turnovr in dangerous area

Sproul (+5-2)
(-) Pass into skates
(+) Shot on goal
(+) Good try to rush to make a 2on1
(-) blind flip up the boards not out.
(+) Assist, SOG (Abby's Butt)
(+) stretching to deflect a good scoring chance.
(+) nice try 2on1 PP rush

Sorry for the informal writing on the +/-'s These are my notes during the game.

Overall a good game from almost everyone.
Sproul did well. Same with Marchenko against lesser competition.
Ericsson was simply safe and quiet.
Smith had the most mistakes.
 

Mijatovic

Registered User
Jan 23, 2014
2,102
173
Western Australia
The link works. I didnt particularly feel like Smith was our worst defenceman but other than that, it all rounds out from what my gut tells me I have seen.
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
6,160
1,377
London, ON
The link works. I didnt particularly feel like Smith was our worst defenceman but other than that, it all rounds out from what my gut tells me I have seen.

Actually from the small sample size. the Game vs SJ was a great game for all our D except Smith, who made almost no good and no bad plays. Everyone else made a lot of good plays. So he missed out on some extra pluses there.

P.S. Thanks for letting me know it works.
 

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