Bill Nylander Discussion

[ULF_55]

A thought that just resurfaced to me is:

I wonder how Dubas feels about Nylander... Does he feel like he got jobbed? I mean, Dubas himself said he didn't want to set new market values on our players... but he was pretty well forced to for Nylander (leading to overpaying Matthews and presumably Marner will be too) or let him sit out the year.

Nylander did Dubas (and the Leafs) absolutely no favours, and he rewards us by playing poorly for most of the year.... I wonder if this put any tension in the Dubas-Nylander relationship.

Wonder how Dubas will feel dealing with a player who thinks he should be paid the same as Matthews but got absolutely buried in the playoffs?

 

[MyBudJT]

Wonder how Dubas will feel dealing with a player who thinks he should be paid the same as Matthews but got absolutely buried in the playoffs?

Funny, I thought this thread was discussing Nylander...

 

[Sweet Leaf]

Include progression? Nylanders' "progression" has been going the wrong direction. Easily 1 mil overpaid.... probably more.



Interesting thought.

I'd also add:
Bergeron: 6.875 mil AAV
Pastrnak: 6.666 mil AAV
Marchand: 6.125 mil AAV
Average: 6.555 AAV

meanwhile...:
Matthews: 11.634 mil AAV
Tavares: 11 mil AAV
Marner: 10? mil AAV (lets assume)
Nylnader: 6.962* mil AAV (Being kind, you could argue for 7.5)
Average: 9.899 AAV


If you want to have a culture like the Bruins, you cannot overpay your superstars....

Great post. I'm also thinking about another guy who knows just a thing or 2 about winning cultures IE Stevie Yzerman.

Think about the way he handled some of his biggest negotiations and think about the way he handled a young uber talented player who had suspect habits like Jonathan Drouin. Steve was willing to live with the consequences of watching Drouin (every bit as talented as Nylander) become a star elsewhere.

 

[Faltorvo]

Great post. I'm also thinking about another guy who knows just a thing or 2 something about winning cultures IE Stevie Yzerman.

Think about the way he handled some of his biggest negotiations and think about the way he handled a young uber talented player who had suspect habits like Jonathan Drouin. Steve was willing to live with the consequences of watching Drouin (every bit as talented as Nylander) become a star elsewhere.

ummm YUP,,you got it.

 

[Sweet Leaf]

A thought that just resurfaced to me is:

I wonder how Dubas feels about Nylander... Does he feel like he got jobbed? I mean, Dubas himself said he didn't want to set new market values on our players... but he was pretty well forced to for Nylander (leading to overpaying Matthews and presumably Marner will be too) or let him sit out the year.

Nylander did Dubas (and the Leafs) absolutely no favours, and he rewards us by playing poorly for most of the year.... I wonder if this put any tension in the Dubas-Nylander relationship.

For sure there is organizational dischord over Nylander but if there is one guy who is prepared to make a "big call" around Nylander I think it's far more likely it's going to be Shanahan. He's gotta have some of that old school eye test stuff in him that is making him more disgusted with WN than some of the new breed guys like Dubas.

The counter to all that though is Nylander was hand picked by Shanny. It was his first pick. He feels personally invested. He probably got used to thinking of himself as smart for making that pick. And he'll continue to talk himself into believing there is more there because of those things.

 

[Nineteen67]

Willy earned every nickel of the 20 million he’s being paid in the 8 months between Dec 2018- July 1st, 2019

 

[CelticDruid]

We lost the series more because of -4 Marner

Marner was invisible for large chunks of the series and so was Tavares.

The line matching had a large part to do with that but it was a disappointing performance.

 

[ULF_55]

Funny, I thought this thread was discussing Nylander...

Context ... Nylander, Matthews, Tavares, Marner contracts are not done in a vacuum.

 

[tellermine]

Willy earned every nickel of the 20 million he’s being paid in the 8 months between Dec 2018- July 1st, 2019

Lolled!!

 

[Jozay]

Where was this talent you spoke of? He did nothing to earn a big contract before we resigned him. Then he proceeded to do nothing when we did sign him. He never had one glimpse of brilliance this entire season. You think he's going to improve on that?

He will always be a floater, like the lump of **** he calls a father.

Guess his first two years in the league didnt happen...

Yes, I think a 23 y/o with the talent level of Nylander will improve.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Funny how all those great advanced stat metrics for Nylander turn into terrible advanced stat metrics when he's not playing with Matthews isn't it?

My thoughts until next year are:

1. As per his current strengths/weaknesses, Nylander can be a force at wing on a sheltered 3rd line if you can afford that luxury.

2. He should not be a top 6 guy playing 20 minutes a night against the other teams best players. He has far too many holes in his game. Kappy should continue to be above him on the depth chart based on Kappy having a way better all around game and bringing things to the top 6 that WN can't IE forechecking, playing heavy, and playing the Hyman role on line #2. WN is far too soft and way too much of a perimeter player to pair him with another skilled winger who isn't proficient at playing a grinding, heavy game.

3. He is nowhere close to being good enough at center to fulfill that role on a contending team.

4. Can he become all the things he is currently not? He's young. It's possible. The progression curve is not looking good. I don't have a lot of confidence he will ever be more than a luxury piece on the 3rd line of a good team.

5. The same mixed opinions we have on Nylander here exist in the the locker room and in management. People are people and they see all the same things we do and have the same variance of opinions. I do believe Nylander was a distraction all season and impacted our season negatively. First the crazy hold out, then the trying to fit him back, juggling lineups constantly trying to figure out how to get him going, a depressed slump ridden kid in the lcokerroom, witnessing the half assed cowardly plays, etc...

It hurt us.

Can you actually explain how a player can thrive on the top line in his first two seasons without being a capable top 6 player? Also explain how he hurt the leafs at all this series

 

[robertmac43]

Yes, I think a 23 y/o with the talent level of Nylander will improve.

It's funny how people seem to think this is a crazy way of thinking....Guess we are dumb for believing in young guy that has shown it before and still has so much potential

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Maybe it will happen quicker than i thought. i hear shanny laid a big fat slap down on both Dubie and Babs this morning. Rumour from 2 parents is Shanny is sitting in on all post season exit interviews. Does not surprise me as i know shanny would want to hear everything direct. But that puts Dubie and Babs on notice. He must be getting tired of the BS between the 2 of them.

 

[DueDiligence]

We lost the series more because of -4 Marner

Pajama boy was a -5 ; why is he not getting any flack?

 

[Jozay]

It's funny how people seem to think this is a crazy way of thinking....Guess we are dumb for believing in young guy that has shown it before and still has so much potential

Toronto fans cant wait to run a guy out of town and then watch him put it together with a different team. Then they'll wonder why we ever traded him in the first place.

 

[MyBudJT]

Context ... Nylander, Matthews, Tavares, Marner contracts are not done in a vacuum.

The sole purpose of that post was to be a shit disturber.

This is a WILLIAM NYLANDER discussion thread. There was no need to bring up your "wondering" on how Dubas feels about Marner's demands... That is a completely different topic.

 

[Nineteen67]

Pajama boy was a -5 ; why is he not getting any flack?

He was actually pretty good.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Right now he must be his Canadian self. He plays great for Sweden .

Like I've said before

Big ice lots of room to avoid hits in the corner. Willy will be a force again so other teams watching will give us full value in a trade

Go Willy

 

[Menzinger]

Toronto fans cant wait to run a guy out of town and then watch him put it together with a different team. Then they'll wonder why we ever traded him in the first place.

They’ll be the first ones complaining about the trade too, and the loudest voices.

 

[Menzinger]

what makes you think he'll rebound next year? He schooled Dubas into a inflated contract, I think there's just as much a chance he regresses next season as there is he plays up to his contract. Besides he's maore valuable a a trade chip to improve the D, his offensive prowess (when present) is expendable for help on the D.

There’s extremely little evidence to suggest to expect regression. In roughly three seasons worth of data we have on him - he hadn’t one particularly terrible/bad scoring stretch (20ish games to start the year) but that didn’t last. Factor in his underlying numbers and age you’d be severely betting against the odds to suggest regression

 

[rumman]

There’s extremely little evidence to suggest to expect regression. In roughly three seasons worth of data we have on him - he hadn’t one particularly terrible/bad scoring stretch (20ish games to start the year) but that didn’t last. Factor in his underlying numbers and age you’d be severely betting against the odds to suggest regression

his best numbers are 2 years old, he sucked this year, sucked in last year's playoffs, and was less than stellar this playoffs. Personally I'm giving more weight to the more recent stats, than the two previous years which were longer ago and therefore less relevant to today's Nylander.

 

[Menzinger]

It’ll be interesting to watch where he slots into the lineup next season, but way too many variables at play before we can think about that (namely was Kadris suspension his ticket out of town this offseason).

While I think he is more engaged away from the puck when he’s a centre, I think the wider lesson from the last three seasons is team and players benefit most when he’s on Matthews right wing - Kapanen lacks offensive chemistry with Matthews and imo would be better on a crash and bang third line anyways. This of course would mean trying to find a replacement 3C during the offseason (a guy like say Coyle) if they do trade Kadri though.

Cassidy and the Bruibs showed they can play well when they stack lines (especially the power play) is like to see the Leafs do the same. Force the opposition to focus on either Marner/JT or Matthews/Nylander

 

[MyBudJT]

There’s extremely little evidence to suggest to expect regression. In roughly three seasons worth of data we have on him - he hadn’t one particularly terrible/bad scoring stretch (20ish games to start the year) but that didn’t last. Factor in his underlying numbers and age you’d be severely betting against the odds to suggest regression

There is also extremely few comparables at this point.

How many players don't increase production from U21 and U22 seasons...? And how many players regress from their U22 to U23 seasons??

Keeping this trend in mind, what makes you so sure he will have a career year next season?

 

[Menzinger]

There is also extremely few comparables at this point.

How many players don't increase production from U21 and U22 seasons...? And how many players regress from their U22 to U23 seasons??

Keeping this trend in mind, what makes you so sure he will have a career year next season?

Plenty of guys have uneven scoring through their first few seasons in the league (Pasta, Mackinnon to name a couple) in the league. Keep in mind the guys still just 22.

Barring a major injury I’d suggest there’s a zero chance he regresses from a 0.5 scoring pace. And would very much expect him to set a career scoring year next season

 

[MyBudJT]

Plenty of guys have uneven scoring through their first few seasons in the league (Pasta, Mackinnon to name a couple) in the league. Keep in mind the guys still just 22.

Barring a major injury I’d suggest there’s a zero chance he regresses from a 0.5 scoring pace. And would very much expect him to set a career scoring year next season

Try again....

Pastrnak's production skyrocketed from his U21 to U22 to U23 seasons....
MacKinnon's production also skyrocketed from his U22 to U23 seaosns....

Pastrnak U23: 66GP 38G 81P
Nylander U23: 54GP 7G 27P
MacKinnon U23: 74GP 39G 97P

One of these things are not like the other...