Bill Nylander Discussion

[MyBudJT]

Nylander PPG prior to signing contract: 0.73

Pasta PPG prior to signing contract: 0.72

Absolutely are comparables

Why are you comparing Pastrnak's U19 season to Nylnader's U22 season?

 

[Kiwi]

Marner has 62 more points than Nylander, in only 2 more games played. In only 3 years.

He has more points, at equal games played, than Nylanders career high, in only 3 years..... think about that.

If you gave Nylander 7, and Matthews 11.6, then what do you give your leading scorer for 2/3 of those years?
While Matthews looked miles ahead of Mitch in the first 2 ELCs, in the final year, not so much.

Marner 3rd year = 1.15/ppg
Mathhews 3rd year = 1.07/ppg

Career high:
Marner 94 points
Matthews 73 points

I get that he got JT this year, I get that AM scores more goals, and is more valuable as a center....

But when you look at those numbers, does 1 player looks miles ahead of the other? Not at all. So I guess that is Marners argument. It doesn't help when you massively overpaid Matthews, especially for 5 years.

In a vacuum, Marner should get around 9, for 6-7 years...... due too over payments, I think more like 10x5.
We could have had Marner for 8 years for 9 mil...... man that sounds pretty good right now.

Both of those players are overpaid so I don't have a lot of time for the there overpaid so let's overpay this other dude

Matthews is a franchise level #1C who scores goals at rates we don't see from centers, he's a unicorn

Marner isn't that

You can't put the sauce back into the bottle, Marner didn't deserve 9M last offseason and only hindsight says he did

Either he signs for around 10M for 7 or 8 years or he should be traded, doing the wrong thing and learning nothing Isn't the way to dig yourself out of a hole

What's better?
Marner with a bad contract or a Marner trade that solves the top pair RD problem long term and gives you cap flexibility for the foreseeable future?

That's what I think when I hear he's thinking Matthews contract

 

[MyBudJT]

Both of those players are overpaid so I don't have a lot of time for the there overpaid so let's overpay this other dude

Matthews is a franchise level #1C who scores goals at rates we don't see from centers, he's a unicorn

Marner isn't that

You can't put the sauce back into the bottle, Marner didn't deserve 9M last offseason and only hindsight says he did

Either he signs for around 10M for 7 or 8 years or he should be traded, doing the wrong thing and learning nothing Isn't the way to dig yourself out of a hole

What's better?
Marner with a bad contract or a Marner trade that solves the top pair RD problem long term and gives you cap flexibility for the foreseeable future?

That's what I think when I hear he's thinking Matthews contract

I disagree. You don't trade Marner to keep Nylander. If anyone is the odd man out, it should probably be Nylander. I personally think that we'll retain all three for next season, even if we have to pay Marner 11M.

Trading Marner instead of Nylander would kind of be like Chicago trading Kane instead of Byfuglien. (Nylander and Byfuglien are different players, but similar caliber).

 

[Morgs]

There simply isn't a Marner comprable out there, especially Marner's who play on a team with a salary structure like ours where we seem to be okay to be generous with our RFAs.

Just because scoring has shot up the last couple years doesn't mean there isn't comparables. Like ffs Drai was 8th in league scoring his final season before signing. Marner was 11th this year. Oh, and Drai is a C.

Guy shouldn't be getting 9, let alone this 11 bullshot.

 

[Morgs]

Why are you comparing Pastrnak's U19 season to Nylnader's U22 season?

Im comparing ELC's, exactly what Menzinger was talking about. And im comparing pastas u19-u21 to Nylanders u20-u22. Stop being fictitious.

 

[MyBudJT]

Just because scoring has shot up the last couple years doesn't mean there isn't comparables. Like ffs Drai was 8th in league scoring his final season before signing. Marner was 11th this year. Oh, and Drai is a C.

Draisatl played very little C that year IIRC.

Regardless, its not a great comparable.

Draisatl was second on team scoring, Marner lead our team in scoring in each of our last two seasons. This year ahead of 11M man Tavares and 11.65M man Matthews.

 

[Kiwi]

There simply isn't a Marner comprable out there, especially Marner's who play on a team with a salary structure like ours where we seem to be okay to be generous with our RFAs.

We've been to generous and now we can't any longer

I think Marner is a stud and desperately want to keep him but we've reached a breaking point

If he's willing to sign something "fair" like 10M×7-8 he's going to be a Leaf for a long time

That's his decision and continuing to vastly overpay isn't the way to solve our cap problems, I'm not being unfair to Marner I'm being realistic of our situation

 

[MyBudJT]

Im comparing ELC's, exactly what Menzinger was talking about. And im comparing pastas u19-u21 to Nylanders u20-u22. Stop being fictitious.

And as a result, you're comparing Pastrnak's U19 season to Nylander's U22 season. It doesn't make any seense.

 

[MyBudJT]

We've been to generous and now we can't any longer

I think Marner is a stud and desperately want to keep him but we've reached a breaking point

If he's willing to sign something "fair" like 10M×7-8 he's going to be a Leaf for a long time

That's his decision and continuing to vastly overpay isn't the way to solve our cap problems, I'm not being unfair to Marner I'm being realistic of our situation

Again, like my other reply... you don't trade Marner to keep Nylander. Doesn't make sense.

 

[Morgs]

Draisatl played very little C that year IIRC.

Regardless, its not a great comparable.

Draisatl was second on team scoring, Marner lead our team in scoring in each of our last two seasons. This year ahead of 11M man Tavares and 11.65M man Matthews.

Okay, but it is a good comparable because ppg is ppg according to guys like you and notsince67 - who gives a f*** about context apparently?

I dont see people talking about Bergeron/Marchand when they mention Pasta. Why are we talking about Drai being 2nd in scoring on his team?

8th in the league in points vs. 11th. Marner probably deserves like 8M then. Am i doing it right?

 

[rumman]

Here is the thing though, if Willie gets 85pts next season, it will be bc he plays with Matthews or his PP numbers are up or he still a prem. Player, he doesn’t win board battles or work in the dirty areas....simply bc a lot of the fan bases here already made up the mind about him. Even if he done all those things( he was more physically engaged against the Bruins), some portion will still cherry pick a few seconds here and there to prove Willie sucks and need to be traded.
Sometime Leafsnation just want the players to be Superman or else they are no good. Still remember how some fans treated Sundin when he was still playing.

your never going to please everyone, like I said if his play reflected his contract being money well spent then most would be happy with that.

 

[Kiwi]

I disagree. You don't trade Marner to keep Nylander. If anyone is the odd man out, it should probably be Nylander. I personally think that we'll retain all three for next season, even if we have to pay Marner 11M.

Trading Marner instead of Nylander would kind of be like Chicago trading Kane instead of Byfuglien. (Nylander and Byfuglien are different players, but similar caliber).

Nylander's value is in the toilet, if we trade him were not going to get his full value, we make ourselves worse because the return will suck

It's not Marner for Nylander, it's Marner for Nylander, Kapanen and most of Johnsson's contracts in pure cap terms

Fitting Marner at 11M is very difficult and name another RFA winger straight our of his ECL that's got even close to that? That's a massive leap

Nylander is a top 6 RW with 2 60 point ECL seasons under his belt, to compare him to big buff at that time is ridiculous

 

[Kiwi]

Again, like my other reply... you don't trade Marner to keep Nylander. Doesn't make sense.

Again, Nylander's trade value sucks right now and trading one guy you've overpaid to overpay another guy isn't very smart

In cap terms it's Marner instead of his trade value (top pair RD, which Nylander won't get) and Nylander combined

That's why I'm against giving Marner Matthews money

 

[rumman]

There are important aspects of hockey that are not represented by points, but I'm not sure Nylander brings any of that.

he doesn't bring much to the party if you don't count points, "elite" zone entries aside.

 

[socko]

Nylander's value is in the toilet, if we trade him were not going to get his full value, we make ourselves worse because the return will suck

The stars are aligning to trade Willy:

1) He's tearing up the WHC. Let's hope for an MVP.
2) He gets the huge bonus on July 1st.
3) We have a 1 dimensional RW, dirt cheap, ready to replace him coming up from the minors.

This is the time. Don't wait until he plays in the NHL again. This is the pinnacle of his value.

 

[MyBudJT]

Again, Nylander's trade value sucks right now and trading one guy you've overpaid to overpay another guy isn't very smart

In cap terms it's Marner instead of his trade value (top pair RD, which Nylander won't get) and Nylander combined

That's why I'm against giving Marner Matthews money

Thanks, I now see where you're coming from. I'll concede you have a valid point, but I don't agree with it. I'll leave it at that .

Edit: Reason I largely disagree is because I'm not convinved that Nylander will be much more than a 60-70 point complimentary player. Nylander would need to be near a P/GP player for trading Marner instead of Nylander to really pay off. With Marner, we already know he's a 90 point (and probably a perennial 100pt) player.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Both of those players are overpaid so I don't have a lot of time for the there overpaid so let's overpay this other dude

Matthews is a franchise level #1C who scores goals at rates we don't see from centers, he's a unicorn

Marner isn't that

You can't put the sauce back into the bottle, Marner didn't deserve 9M last offseason and only hindsight says he did

Either he signs for around 10M for 7 or 8 years or he should be traded, doing the wrong thing and learning nothing Isn't the way to dig yourself out of a hole

What's better?
Marner with a bad contract or a Marner trade that solves the top pair RD problem long term and gives you cap flexibility for the foreseeable future?

That's what I think when I hear he's thinking Matthews contract

Matthews has also only played 212/246 games. You can't pretend that doesn't exist. While /ppg is a fine stat, at some point the injuries out weigh the ppg. Although we are far from that point.

I've always maintained that you try to keep the best player. In your example, Marner is a much better player than Nylander, even at 10mil. Flirting with 100 points is worth so much more than flirting with 70 points. For 33 more points, I would pay 3 mil more. Every day of the week.

Were you thinking the same thing about Matthews when he wanted more than McDavid? 14x8? WTF has he done to prove he is worth more than McDavid?

So now you want to pin the domino effect on Marner? The guy who bleeds blue and white?
I actually agree with you, in a vacuum, but if you want to tell me that Matthews and Willy are overpaid, and now Marner should bite the bullet, I better see you in every Dubas thread pumping those over payments, or at least consistency in posting.

We have been put in a rough position that isn't the fault of Matthews, Willy, or Marner. While that hipster doofus GM gets off much easier. He should be taking way more heat.
Nylander 6.5x6
Matthews 11x7
Marner 9x8

I think those numbers were very possible. Now we pay more, for less years 2boot.

It will end up:
7
11.6
10.5
for a 2.5m/year lose and less years.

Good contracts massively increase trade value, so even if you want to trade Marner, being overpaid, or demanding to be overpaid, certainly will not help that trade.

 

[rumman]

I still remember when we cried over Steen lol.

Steen we can get over though. Nylander? Not so much.

This is so sad to read.

I understand posters who are disappointed and expect more. That speaks for the talent they believe he has.

I don't understand the outright bias towards him being a bust and forever doomed to be a bust moving forward.

Nylander has all the tools needed, he either can't or won't use them. He made the bed he's lying in, don't forget that you sympathizers.

 

[rumman]

I haven't seen anyone call him a bust but I do admit to not reading every post.

I find it incredible that there is a group that can't find any fault with his play. Seems rather dishonest.

there's probably a stat for that.

 

[rumman]

So because we ****** up two other contracts we should continue on with that "plan"

That would be a gigantic RFA contract for a winger, about the only other guy that would be close would be Kane and he was winning playoff rounds at this point in his career

did you just freely admit the Nylander and Mathews contracts are f**ked up?

 

[Menzinger]

The only season Nylander scored more points than Pastrnak was... NEVER.

U19:
Pastrnak: 46GP 10G 17P 27P
Nylander: Did not play

U20:
Pastrnak: 51GP 15G 26P
Nylander: 22GP 6G 13P

U21:
Pastrnak: 75GP 34G 70P
Nylander: 81GP 22G 61P

U22:
Pastrnak: 82GP 35G 80P
Nylander: 82GP 20G 61P

U23:
Pastrnak: 66GP 38G 81P
Nylanders: 54GP 7G 27P

The closest comprables in these numbers are Nylnaders U23 season and Pastrnak's U19 and U20 seasons....

It boggles my mind how people think that these are good comparables....

Players enter the NHL at different ages.

Again, if you look at the actual numbers produced by Pasta prior to signing his post elc contract vs the actual numbers produced by Nylander prior to signing his contract, Nylander had the higher ppg and total points over those years.

Why is this so hard to grasp?

 

[MyBudJT]

Players enter the NHL at different ages.

Again, if you look at the actual numbers produced by Pasta prior to signing his post elc contract vs the actual numbers produced by Nylander prior to signing his contract, Nylander had the higher ppg and total points over those years.

Why is this so hard to grasp?

Its not hard to grasp... but its clear that you guys are cherry picking your stats.

 

[Dreakmur]

Drives xG better than all but 11 forwards.

Assuming that is a worthwhile stat, it will lead to point production, right?

Has positive defensive metrics.

There are no metrics that measure defensive play.

Shot contributions/60 (shots/60 + shot assists/60) is in the 95th percentile of the league. Zone entries in the 98th percentile, zone exits in the 75th percentile.

Again, if those stats are as meaningful as you think, they will lead to offensive production.

 

[Stamkos4life]

You lost all credebility as a person who understands hockey right there. Its not pingis its a team sport.

What is pingis? Yes hockey is a team sport. So when you have a player sit out for 2 months, demanding more than he is worth, only to come back out of shape and playing poorly, it's going to have a negative affect on the rest of the team. I know I wouldn't be pleased if he was my teammate.

I don't think your timeline is correct. Second half of rookie year all the way to first half of sophomore year he was one of our best players. No way you would have jumped ship. Marner played like Nylander coming off his lockout for the first half of 17/18.

Marner found instant chemistry with Kadri and now has been our MVP for 1.5 seasons now. Can give him a blank cheque to sign as far as I'm concerned.

These guys are to young and talented to put them on the outside. Just need to find the right mix for them. If Marner stayed with JVR and Bozak his 17/18 season probably ends differently. Kardi-Marner put on an absolute clinic. He then gets to start the season and stay with Tavares. Environment to succeed.

If you hate Nylander because he held out and looks greedy then fine. Don't mix that up with his talent. I don't see how a player can hold out for 1/3 of the season and expect to be a factor when he comes back. This league is full of strong and fit athletes who have the jump on players that held out.

If you truly wanted his jersey I don't see the big deal in giving him a clean slate with a normal year before you write him off.

I don't remember nylander playing that well to start 17-18 but you may be correct. I was expecting 70+ points after winning mvp at worlds but even with playing alongside Matthew's he ended with 61.

I agree on giving marner a blank cheque (for the most part).

Re your last paragraph: how come other players come back mid season after missing training camp and yet can put togeather a respectable season?

I really think nylander came back out of shape. He looked slow and couldn't keep up.

After he signed I remember being disappointed by the amount but figured at least he can now show that he is worth 7mil. Boy was I wrong.

Sure, I'm sure all it takes is playing with Matthews. Let's comparing Nylander to Matthews' most common 5v5 linemates this year.

Nylander 17/18: 2.35 p/60 (T31), 1.76 p1/60 (T40)
Hyman 17/18: 1.73 p/60 (T137), 1.47 p1/60 (T97)
Kapanen 18/19: 1.9 p/60 (T123), 1.34 p1/60 (T160)
Marleau 18/19: 1.06 p/60 (T389), 0.9 p1/60 (T334)

it's a bit weird how Nylander produces at a high end first line rate, and Kapanen produces at the rate of a mediocre 2nd liner. Marleau is totally garbage. I think there's a bit more to it than simply playing with Matthews and getting handed free points

As a side note, Matthews is unbelievable. Despite playing with two lesser talents at 5v5, he was one of the best producers in the league

Your stats show that nylander is only a bit better than Hyman and kap. That's with having way more time building chemistry than kap has had. Also kap isnt going to get over 4 mil. That's much better than 7.

Since when is even strength scoring a "random stat"? Its pretty basic, and shows hes alongside some excellent company, though since it seemingly disproves your entire argument I can see why you'd prefer it didn't exist...

Disproves my entire argument? Lol

I said he hasn't dominated in the nhl like he has at worlds.

You think posting that he had 45 even strength points in 17-18 shows he's been dominant? Okay then.

Two 60 point seasons out of 3 full seasons before he even turned 23.......unable to translate to the NHL.

Seems legit.

You think 2 60 point seasons is dominant?

His dominance in worlds hasn't translated to the nhl. Thats what I said If you think 60 points is dominant, what is McDavid? A superhero?

 

[BertCorbeau]

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