Post-Game Talk: Big Win 4:1 vs Calgary

[Pi]

Nylander has not been himself this season. He has been a drag on every line he has played on so far. Until he works his way out of it, there is no other line for him to play on that won't hurt the team.

Ten minutes is about right for poor possession players.

Definition of getting PDOed. He has a very low SH% and it won't last unless you think he's the worst shooter in the NHL. He also doesn't have very many secondary assists which are fickle by nature.

I guess all those players should also play 10 minutes?

 

[stickty111]

Here's a thought give the line a chance? Maybe more then 1 game? Consider this, that terrible Matthews-Brown-Hyman line shut down the hottest line in the league and the team won.

Matthews is coming off a back injury, personally knowing what a bad back can do to a person, I'm not surprised at all that Matthews is not scoring at the pace we think he should be.

BTW ... Calgary had 20 SOG

Both Matthews and Kadri did a solid job shutting down a very good line. We played one of our best games of the season and people still find a way to complain.
Babcock did a nice job rearranging the lines and it worked in today's game. Its like Babcock made a good decision or something.
Nylander getting 10 mins is alright until he figures his game out.

 

[White Shadow]

I would guess none or very few of those players are actually dragging their opponents possession down like an anchor the way Nylander currently is. It was great to finally see a line with Willie on it last night have great possession numbers. More games like that and there won't be a need to shelter him so much.

 

[stickty111]

I see some people arent happy with wins unless their favorite playere are getting the right amount of ice time.

 

[Pookie]

Possession numbers again?

What is a good possession number and can you quantify whether there is a statistically significant difference amongst them?

I'm not asking for a rank order of highest to lowest... is there anything meaningful in the difference between two numbers?

 

[White Shadow]

There is no perfect stat, I grant you that. Some make much more sense when combined with others.

I do see the validity in possession numbers when compared across line mates. When you can fix the variables against quality of opponents, zone starts, playing with a lead, etc. you get a fairly strong metric.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Possession numbers again?

What is a good possession number and can you quantify whether there is a statistically significant difference amongst them?

I'm not asking for a rank order of highest to lowest... is there anything meaningful in the difference between two numbers?

I think like every other stat they are valuable but I think team possession is more important than individual possession. Not all players play a style that's possession based and that's not a bad thing.

 

[Bluelines]

Possession numbers again?

What is a good possession number and can you quantify whether there is a statistically significant difference amongst them?

I'm not asking for a rank order of highest to lowest... is there anything meaningful in the difference between two numbers?

Eighteen is a good number, seven is good too, one is a lonely number, two can be as bad as one, its the loneliest number since the number one...

and that is Advance Stats by Bluelines

 

[ACC1224]

I am happy with the win, I am not happy with the lineup, unless you think that Nylander playing for 10 minutes is good for the team.

We beat a very mediocre Calgary team. This team will get crushed with this lineup against any good team.

I think the way they played that game last will go a long way towards beating "any good team".
I also don't think Nylander will be on the 4th line for long, nor do I think he's played well enough to be on the top line. Against other teams top lines, Brown is a much better choice.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Someone actually thinks that Nylander drags players down when it comes to puck possession. Now I've seen everything

 

[White Shadow]

JVR Bozak Willie 45%
JVR Bozak Marner 57%

Hyman Matthews Willie 54%
Hyman Matthews Marner 56%
Hyman Matthews Brown 61%

Leo Kadri Willie 41%
Leo Kadri Brown 48%
Leo Kadri Marleau 50%

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Nylander has not been himself this season. He has been a drag on every line he has played on so far. Until he works his way out of it, there is no other line for him to play on that won't hurt the team.

Ten minutes is about right for poor possession players.

52 cf% (+2.18 rel)
54 xgf% (+3.13 rel)
icf/60: 14.6

47.7 cf% (-3.55 rel)
49 xgf% (-3.32 rel)
icf/60: 12.7

Is Kadri a drag on the team? He's worse than Nylander in every possession metric and is actually below the team average unlike Willy. He should be in the AHL right?

 

[White Shadow]

You're throwing spaghetti on a wall and hoping it sticks.

If you put those numbers in context, like the line combos does, it gives a more real picture. A picture that actually has context.

You really think a comparison of anyone playing on the Matthews line against anyone on the shutdown line is a decent comparison?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

You're throwing spaghetti on a wall and hoping it sticks.

If you put those numbers in context, like the line combos does, it gives a more real picture. A picture that actually has context.

You really think a comparison of anyone playing on the Matthews line against anyone on the shutdown line is a decent comparison?

oh yeah obviously comparing lines that have been together for ~2 games or fewer is the meaningful approach. The Matthews and Kadri both get extremely similar quality competition so I am not sure what your problem is

 

[Clark4Ever]

Nope. I am not happy at all.

Nylander playing 10 minutes is a ****ing joke. This lineup might have won last night but Calgary routinely gives up 40 shots a game so it's not exactly a great team to compare the Leafs to. Gaudreau and Monahan cherry pick and couldn't do that yesterday.

Long term this is not good for the Leafs. Babcock singlehandedly destroying what was the best line in the league to put Hyman and Brown with Matthews.

Now Matthews doesn't even look like his dominant self and we're stuck with a lineup that is broken on nearly all four lines but I guess congrats on the big two points?

Lets see how far we go in December with this lineup.

I want Nylander to succeed as much as anyone, but blaming Babs for his lack of production and Matthews' drop in form as of late is over the top.

A. Matthews put up the same numbers with Brown on his wing last season.

B. Nylander is just getting a wakeup call, and deservedly so.

C. Matthews has not looked the same since he returned from injury, and that has nothing to do with lineup decisions.

 

[White Shadow]

Well, I suppose you could guess if you like. You can even make a feeble attempt with "extremely similar" to try and make an argument, but using line combinations which actually fixes the variables you just brought up makes a more compelling argument don't you think?

Not one line and not one combination of linemates Nylander has played on has been stronger with him on it.

 

[Sniper99]

Lol at Andy going for a goal but instead drilling Bennett in the face. Ouch.

I was hoping for Tkachuk

 

[Pookie]

Eighteen is a good number, seven is good too, one is a lonely number, two can be as bad as one, its the loneliest number since the number one...

and that is Advance Stats by Bluelines

867 5309

 

[therealkoho]

4-1 win on the road, a perfect road game, limited chances, great goaltending and tight checking

what i learned in this thread

Polak still stinks, he's the root of all evil in the world and Borgman wasn't much better

Calgary gives up 40 shots a game and the cruddy awful Leafs only had 30, I'd check NHL stats if they were right, cause they show Calgary allowing 7 less then that and what do they know

The Leafs won in spite of coach Babcock who is so obviously trying to make us lose, imagine him not just playing Polak but having the temerity to demote Willie while still allowing Hyman to play with the big guy

Bozak might get us a 3rd, maybe

Brown and Hyman are dragging Auston down, how do we know, it's the first time Auston hasn't had a shot in 109 NHL games

what i learned with this post

I have to stop reading postgame threads

 

[MR4]

Using a sample size where Nylander has been in a rut for half is great analysis

 

[ToneDog]

Definition of getting PDOed. He has a very low SH% and it won't last unless you think he's the worst shooter in the NHL. He also doesn't have very many secondary assists which are fickle by nature.

I guess all those players should also play 10 minutes?

Don't want to pile on Willie but last time I looked there was no trophy for most assists. Don't see Matthews on that list. Guess he should be playing even fewer than 10 minutes

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Using a sample size where Nylander has been in a rut for half is great analysis

You don't think the 2 games that Marner has played with Matthews/Hyman proves beyond a doubt that Nylander is a possession black hole?

 

[Cor]

Start off our Western Trip with a 4-1 win and this thread is still full of negativity and criticism.

Yet some are shocked when posters like Daisy don’t want to post here anymore

 

[MJ65]

Game in Six minutes - Courtesy Leafs TV

 

[zeke]

JVR Bozak Willie 45%
JVR Bozak Marner 57%

Hyman Matthews Willie 54%
Hyman Matthews Marner 56%
Hyman Matthews Brown 61%

Leo Kadri Willie 41%
Leo Kadri Brown 48%
Leo Kadri Marleau 50%

er, you sure you're looking at the right season?

minimum 5min, 5v5 adj.

Matthews/Hyman/Brown 56.7%
Matthews/Hyman/Nylander 54.3%
Matthews/Hyman/Marner 54.3%

Kadri/Komo/Kapanen 51.0%
Kadri/Komo/Marleau 50.4%
Kadri/Komo/Brown 48.9%
Kadri/Komo/Nylander 46.7%
Kadri/Komo/Martin 41.9%
Kadri/Komo/Leivo 40.2%
Kadri/Komo/Sosh 0.0%

Bozak/JVR/Marner 55.3%
Bozak/JVR/Brown 46.5%
Bozak/JVR/Nylander 45.1%

Moore/Martin/Nylander 76.0%
Moore/Martin/Marner 63.9%
Moore/Martin/Sosh 41.1%
Moore/Martin/Brown 31.1%



Top 5 Line Combos of the season, minimum 5min, 5v5 adj (of 36 total 5+ min combos):

1.Nylander/Matthews/Kadri 88.1%
2.Nylander/Marleau/Komarov 84.6%
3.Nylander/Moore/Martin 76.0%
4.Nylander/Matthews/Marleau 64.9%
5.Marner/Bozak/Martin 64.8%