Noted. I should’ve checked instead of doing that off memory. Regardless, not a whole lot of difference between 44 and 52. There are no seasons anywhere near what some of the suggestions for his rookie season are.
You're looking at a very small sample size of only 5 years, 2 of which saw a defenseman go 1st overall.
So you are only looking at the last 3 forwards drafted 1st overall (Hughes, Lafreniere, Slafkovksy).
- Hughes was much less physically mature than Bedard
- Lafreniere was extremely overrated as a prospect
- Slafkovsky was a weak 1st overall pick, and very clearly not ready to be a full time NHLer
Other recent 18 year old seasons:
Dahlin put up 44 points as a defenseman
B Tkachuk scored at a 52 point pace
Stutzle scored at a 45 point pace
Scoring is way up. 55 points for Bedard would be awful for a guy with his talent.
There are no seasons anywhere near what some of the suggestions for his rookie season are.
I don't even know why you're trying to compare Bedard to recent precedent, when what he's done thus far in his WHL career is pretty unprecedented. It would actually be
unprecedented to have Bedard come in and only score 55 points after doing what he did in junior.
His best comparables based on size, style, and relative junior productivity are Patrick Kane and Pat Lafontaine.
- Patrick Kane was 28th in scoring as a 18 y/o rookie. Last year, 28th was good for 82 points.
- Pat Lafontaine was 15th in PPG as a 18 y/o rookie (only played 15 games). Brayden Point was 15th in PPG this year with 95 points.
So yeah, 55 points would be unprecedented.