Bedard rookie season points

[centipede2233]

If he’s a generational type player we’ll know it after the first few games but i don’t think Chicago fans needs to be concerned if he score around 50 points.

I suppose, I mean it took jack Hughes 2 yrs to get accustomed. But bedard is more physically ready for the nhl then Hughes was at the same age

 

[PensandCaps]

Jack Hughes scored 21 points in his rookie year (he missed 21 games).

Bedard is a much better prospect.

Matthews dropped 40 in a much harder scoring year. A bit older though, but i expect around the same for Bedard, with 90-100 or so points.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

0-20
He’s gonna get injured. Chicago needs to be smitten.

 

[TheOne]

I don't think these voters and posters realize how trash the Hawks are currently lol. Bedard is going to be amazing, but he's gonna have ZERO competitive help surrounding him. If he only scores every other game, that's not gonna be a reflection on him, it's more like "dish the puck to Bedard from behind his own net and pray for the best!" Yeah, he might make magic happen, but he's totally on his own, so lower your expectations...

 

[PensandCaps]

The biggest thing for me with Bedard, is that his rookie year especially, he's not going to have a lot of great talent around him to work with. I think that holds his productivity back to something more in the 60-something pts range.

Who is he actually gonna have to play with, that has any abundance of talent? Hall is probably the best offensive player they've got, and he's likely to miss time and has never had any chemistry with other good players anyway. So he's gonna play with the corpse of Corey Perry or Nick Foligno? Or Kurashev who i like, but is clearly not a world-beater in terms of offensive skill. Athanasiou and Tyler Johnson is probably the best case scenario linemates? That's...not great.

Not only that, but because of the dearth of other real high-end offensive talent in Chicago right now...he's also going to be the absolute focal point of every other team's matchup efforts. He's going to be going head to head with other team's best two-way Centers and he's going to see a steady diet of everyone's top defensive matchup pairing.

Even on the Powerplay where production is often driven...who is he gonna have to work with? Seth Jones quarterbacking the whole operation?



I think he's fighting an uphill battle to have the kind of impact someone like say Beniers did as a rookie last year. He's not going to have nearly that same caliber of support. So maybe the sheer talent level and abundant opportunity to play big minutes in prime offensive situations gets him into that 60-70pts range. That and his obvious hype and pedigree is probably enough to secure himself a Calder trophy at the end of the day...but it's hard to see much headroom beyond that. Though betting against a generational offensive talent scoring a bunch is probably foolish...that's what i'd do.

Reichel is the best Offensive forward after Bedard. Those two should be at the top in rookie scoring at 1 and 2.

 

[biturbo19]

Reichel is the best Offensive forward after Bedard. Those two should be at the top in rookie scoring at 1 and 2.

The guy with ~20 NHL games to his name is going to be the supporting player for the guy with 0 NHL games to his name?

I mean, you never know...but that's not very compelling. Especially given the way coaches tend to run their benches. I'd be surprised if they even spent much time on the same line tbh. Powerplay, sure...that might help. But if that's his primary counterpart on the top powerplay...it's still pretty rough.

 

[TheGuiminator]

Anything below point per game would be disappointing

Do I expect Bédard to be as « NHL ready » than Crosby was? Not necessarily. But there’s a big hype here and he has to live up to it.

So between 85-95 pts would be satisfying

 

[bobholly39]

I'll say 48 goals and 92 points.

I agree with others - poll options are stupid.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Probably 60ish. In a better situation he would score more, but the Hawks were last in goals for and lost their top two scorers.

 

[shakes the clown]

I don't think these voters and posters realize how trash the Hawks are currently lol. Bedard is going to be amazing, but he's gonna have ZERO competitive help surrounding him. If he only scores every other game, that's not gonna be a reflection on him, it's more like "dish the puck to Bedard from behind his own net and pray for the best!" Yeah, he might make magic happen, but he's totally on his own, so lower your expectations...

Today I learned that Taylor Hall is no benefit to an NHL hockey team.

 

[Video Nasty]

Probably 60ish. In a better situation he would score more, but the Hawks were last in goals for and lost their top two scorers.

Folks are blowing this out of proportion.

With both through 2/22/23 (Kane's final game), they scored 143 goals in 57 games, which is 2.509 GPG.

In the 3 games without Kane prior to Domi getting traded, they had 7 goals in 3 games, which is 2.33 GPG.

Without both Kane and Domi (through 2/28/23), they scored 54 goals in 22 games, which is 2.455 GPG.

With both, they were a 206 goal team. Without both, they were a 200 goal team.

They've added Bedard and Hall. Other than bad health, there's little reason to expect anything worse than treading water in terms of goals scored as a team. People expecting 40-60 points are telling us that they think Bedard is going to factor in only between 20-30% of their offensive production if they only score 200 goals again, which is a high enough total for last place in today's NHL. For reference, prior to Crosby and Ovechkin's arrival, Chicago's 204 goals from last season would have been higher than 12 other teams in 2003-2004.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

80gp 36g 78p 26 PIM -472

I'd bet a lot of money that he scores at > 60p pace. He'll probably score 30-40 points on the PP alone.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Bedard is a much better prospect.

Matthews dropped 40 in a much harder scoring year. A bit older though, but i expect around the same for Bedard, with 90-100 or so points.

I’m not sure either of these things are true. Hughes had an insane amount of hype. He played the game a little differently and was probably a little worse, but a small player with a lot of offensive ability and a little lacking in the defensive zone.

Matthews was nearly a full year older in his rookie year than Bedard will be.

It’s probably best to expect him to score somewhere between where Hughes and Matthews did. He’s better and a little stronger than Hughes was as a rookie, yet he’s a lot smaller, weaker, and younger than Matthews was as a rookie.

And I’ll remind everyone that we actually have not seen a D+1 season in the NHL greater than 44 points since the Matthews rookie season. It’s not like the players since have all sucked either. A lot of people seriously underestimate how hard it is to come into the league and immediately be one of the best in the league.

 

[TheOne]

Today I learned that Taylor Hall is no benefit to an NHL hockey team.

Fair point, I totally forgot we picked him up.

 

[Juxta Position]

I don't see the assist totals that would equate to 80+ point season just yet, the Hawks just don't have the scorers for that.

I could see 40 goals, but I still think that may be a bit of a stretch though. I'm thinking more of a 30/30 year for him.

I live in Saskatchewan and saw him a fair bit last season in junior and I'm not sure he has the all around offensive game yet to put up 80+ points in his rookie season. what he does have is an absolutely insane shot, quick, hard and accurate, but he's going to have a little more trouble getting that shot off in the NHL then he did in junior until he matures a bit more physically. but once he does, he'll be a perennial 50 goal threat.

 

[hamzarocks]

I’m not sure either of these things are true. Hughes had an insane amount of hype. He played the game a little differently and was probably a little worse, but a small player with a lot of offensive ability and a little lacking in the defensive zone.

Matthews was nearly a full year older in his rookie year than Bedard will be.

It’s probably best to expect him to score somewhere between where Hughes and Matthews did. He’s better and a little stronger than Hughes was as a rookie, yet he’s a lot smaller, weaker, and younger than Matthews was as a rookie.

And I’ll remind everyone that we actually have not seen a D+1 season in the NHL greater than 44 points since the Matthews rookie season. It’s not like the players since have all sucked either. A lot of people seriously underestimate how hard it is to come into the league and immediately be one of the best in the league.

Nico Hishcier had 52 pts in his D+1 year and he wasnt touted as a superstar 1OA pick

 

[SA16]

There is no chance Bedard gets 70+ in his rookie season in that team. It just will not happen. If he does im very happy to be proven wrong but i give it like 1% chance of happening.

And do not scream bust when he gets like 38points in his rookie year, like i did with Hughes.

What does “that team” matter. He’s not playing with the inept guys. He’ll be with Hall, a lot with Seth jones, maybe some with reichel Athanasiou or Johnson. Competent nhl players. The fact that their depth is horrible is meaningless

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Nico Hishcier had 52 pts in his D+1 year and he wasnt touted as a superstar 1OA pick

Noted. I should’ve checked instead of doing that off memory. Regardless, not a whole lot of difference between 44 and 52. There are no seasons anywhere near what some of the suggestions for his rookie season are.

 

[PensandCaps]

I don't think these voters and posters realize how trash the Hawks are currently lol. Bedard is going to be amazing, but he's gonna have ZERO competitive help surrounding him. If he only scores every other game, that's not gonna be a reflection on him, it's more like "dish the puck to Bedard from behind his own net and pray for the best!" Yeah, he might make magic happen, but he's totally on his own, so lower your expectations...

I’m not sure either of these things are true. Hughes had an insane amount of hype. He played the game a little differently and was probably a little worse, but a small player with a lot of offensive ability and a little lacking in the defensive zone.

Matthews was nearly a full year older in his rookie year than Bedard will be.

It’s probably best to expect him to score somewhere between where Hughes and Matthews did. He’s better and a little stronger than Hughes was as a rookie, yet he’s a lot smaller, weaker, and younger than Matthews was as a rookie.

And I’ll remind everyone that we actually have not seen a D+1 season in the NHL greater than 44 points since the Matthews rookie season. It’s not like the players since have all sucked either. A lot of people seriously underestimate how hard it is to come into the league and immediately be one of the best in the league.

Hughes looked the part, didn't really utilize his shot in his first few years, I don't really worry about Bedard not shooting.

Yah, it's not normal to be elite in your D+1 season, but Bedard isn't normal.

 

[Nfumass]

70-75 points

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Noted. I should’ve checked instead of doing that off memory. Regardless, not a whole lot of difference between 44 and 52. There are no seasons anywhere near what some of the suggestions for his rookie season are.

You're looking at a very small sample size of only 5 years, 2 of which saw a defenseman go 1st overall.
So you are only looking at the last 3 forwards drafted 1st overall (Hughes, Lafreniere, Slafkovksy).

- Hughes was much less physically mature than Bedard
- Lafreniere was extremely overrated as a prospect
- Slafkovsky was a weak 1st overall pick, and very clearly not ready to be a full time NHLer

Other recent 18 year old seasons:

Dahlin put up 44 points as a defenseman
B Tkachuk scored at a 52 point pace
Stutzle scored at a 45 point pace

Scoring is way up. 55 points for Bedard would be awful for a guy with his talent.

There are no seasons anywhere near what some of the suggestions for his rookie season are.

I don't even know why you're trying to compare Bedard to recent precedent, when what he's done thus far in his WHL career is pretty unprecedented. It would actually be unprecedented to have Bedard come in and only score 55 points after doing what he did in junior.

His best comparables based on size, style, and relative junior productivity are Patrick Kane and Pat Lafontaine.
- Patrick Kane was 28th in scoring as a 18 y/o rookie. Last year, 28th was good for 82 points.
- Pat Lafontaine was 15th in PPG as a 18 y/o rookie (only played 15 games). Brayden Point was 15th in PPG this year with 95 points.

So yeah, 55 points would be unprecedented.

 

[gritdash60]

Well i hope he proves me wrong, since i would rather see him score 100+ than around 50. I love superstars and i hope he is one from the day he hits NHL ice, i just said how i think its going to be.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

So they'll have new top 2 scorers

Probably 60ish. In a better situation he would score more, but the Hawks were last in goals for and lost their top two scorers.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Crosby and Ovechkin were both top 10 in points as rookies. McDavid was on pace for it.

If Bedard is in that category of prospects, and I think he is, then a top 10 finish is realistic.

Last year, 10th in points was 102 points. Highest scoring season in almost 30 years.

Over 90 points is realistic.

Ovechkin was 20 so not exactly a comparable. Playing in the NHL is very difficult as an 18 year old. Crosby is the only 18 year old to hit 100 points in the last 40 years. I'd say 70-80 is more realistic.

 

[SEALBound]

Someone has to score for the Hawks. He'll have decent wingers. They might not win a ton but I think we can see him put the points up. Honestly, I think the Hawks coaching staff tells him to go do his thing without too much interference. I'm thinking the likes of Sid and Ovie in their rookie seasons isn't that unreasonable. I could see PPG for sure. Question really is, does he break 100? Probably not.

It's all about health though.