Bedard rookie season points

[Happyhary9]

I’m not sure either of these things are true. Hughes had an insane amount of hype. He played the game a little differently and was probably a little worse, but a small player with a lot of offensive ability and a little lacking in the defensive zone.

Matthews was nearly a full year older in his rookie year than Bedard will be.

It’s probably best to expect him to score somewhere between where Hughes and Matthews did. He’s better and a little stronger than Hughes was as a rookie, yet he’s a lot smaller, weaker, and younger than Matthews was as a rookie.

And I’ll remind everyone that we actually have not seen a D+1 season in the NHL greater than 44 points since the Matthews rookie season. It’s not like the players since have all sucked either. A lot of people seriously underestimate how hard it is to come into the league and immediately be one of the best in the league.

Your evaluations on Bedard have been brutal. Saying he is a little stronger than Hughes coming into the NHL shows how little you know. Bedard has 20 pounds of muscle on Hughes when drafted. Bedard is literally bigger and stronger then Hughes right now. There was a reason Hughes declined to even weigh in at the combine. Bedard was 185 pounds and was one of the stronger players at the combine in almost every event.

All you have to do is watch Hughes play in the WJC-20 and WC in his draft year and realize strength was a major issue at that time. He was knocked off the puck all the time against the older bigger players. Bedard had zero problems handling those older kids. I loved Hughes as a prospect but it is a night and day difference between him and Bedard with strength.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Your evaluations on Bedard have been brutal. Saying he is a little stronger than Hughes coming into the NHL shows how little you know. Bedard has 20 pounds of muscle on Hughes when drafted. Bedard is literally bigger and stronger then Hughes right now. There was a reason Hughes declined to even weigh in at the combine. Bedard was 185 pounds and was one of the stronger players at the combine in almost every event.

All you have to do is watch Hughes play in the WJC-20 and WC in his draft year and realize strength was a major issue at that time. He was knocked off the puck all the time against the older bigger players. Bedard had zero problems handling those older kids. I loved Hughes as a prospect but it is a night and day difference between him and Bedard with strength.

Almost all your posts are about Bedard. I don't know how there's much reasoning with you on this topic. You are clearly not detached, and look at this as a Blackhawks fan that doesn't accept that not everyone has the same expectations as you do.

I feel pretty comfortable in my assessment that he will score about 55 points. That'd be the best D+1 season in the NHL since Matthews. It's a lot harder than most people think to score more than that as a D+1, and I believe some of the Bedard hype has gotten way out of control, and some fans are going to be in for a reckoning about how Bedard compares to NHL'ers out of the gate in his rookie season. That's my opinion, and you can disagree, but I feel comfortable in my assessment as a neutral and I think you are looking at things with Blackhawks-goggles.

 

[Happyhary9]

Almost all your posts are about Bedard. I don't know how there's much reasoning with you on this topic. You are clearly not detached, and look at this as a Blackhawks fan that doesn't accept that not everyone has the same expectations as you do.

I feel pretty comfortable in my assessment that he will score about 55 points. That'd be the best D+1 season in the NHL since Matthews. It's a lot harder than most people think to score more than that as a D+1, and I believe some of the Bedard hype has gotten way out of control, and some fans are going to be in for a reckoning about how Bedard compares to NHL'ers out of the gate in his rookie season. That's my opinion, and you can disagree, but I feel comfortable in my assessment as a neutral and I think you are looking at things with Blackhawks-goggles.

No said the same about Bedard before he ever was drafted by the Hawks. Why would I change my views of a prospect.

Like I have said and many others, the moment you say stuff like Bedard is weak and he is like Hughes, it shows a complete lack of prospect evaluation. I don't even care about your 55 point prediction. I have said basically around a PPG, which is only 25 more points. It is the ridiculous hyperbole you use when talking about Bedard's production (pre-NHL) and skill set. You say crap like he is tiny and weak, which is complete BS and been proven wrong at the combine. You say he is an average skater, again BS, no NHL scout or anyone with any hockey IQ thinks that. You constantly say many prospects have production on Bedard's level as a prospect. When proven wrong left and right with actual data, you resort back to the waterd down crap of the CHL and the "War" excuse.

It is funny how Michkov never has any size issues, despite being like 20 pounds lighter and not as strong as Bedard. Your evaluations on Bedards skill set at this point are just laughable.

 

[Voight]

I’m not sure either of these things are true. Hughes had an insane amount of hype. He played the game a little differently and was probably a little worse, but a small player with a lot of offensive ability and a little lacking in the defensive zone.

Matthews was nearly a full year older in his rookie year than Bedard will be.

It’s probably best to expect him to score somewhere between where Hughes and Matthews did. He’s better and a little stronger than Hughes was as a rookie, yet he’s a lot smaller, weaker, and younger than Matthews was as a rookie.

And I’ll remind everyone that we actually have not seen a D+1 season in the NHL greater than 44 points since the Matthews rookie season. It’s not like the players since have all sucked either. A lot of people seriously underestimate how hard it is to come into the league and immediately be one of the best in the league.

We haven't had a prospect as good as Matthews debut. Bedard is the first.

In that time you also had two d-men go #1 (one of them went to college post draft), there was a COVID shortened season (Laf), a player who shouldn't of been in the NHL right away (Hughes) and a prospect who went #1 in a weak draft show ant that great to begin with (Slafkovsky)

 

[Happyhary9]

You're looking at a very small sample size of only 5 years, 2 of which saw a defenseman go 1st overall.
So you are only looking at the last 3 forwards drafted 1st overall (Hughes, Lafreniere, Slafkovksy).

- Hughes was much less physically mature than Bedard
- Lafreniere was extremely overrated as a prospect
- Slafkovsky was a weak 1st overall pick, and very clearly not ready to be a full time NHLer

Other recent 18 year old seasons:

Dahlin put up 44 points as a defenseman
B Tkachuk scored at a 52 point pace
Stutzle scored at a 45 point pace

Scoring is way up. 55 points for Bedard would be awful for a guy with his talent.


I don't even know why you're trying to compare Bedard to recent precedent, when what he's done thus far in his WHL career is pretty unprecedented. It would actually be unprecedented to have Bedard come in and only score 55 points after doing what he did in junior.

His best comparables based on size, style, and relative junior productivity are Patrick Kane and Pat Lafontaine.
- Patrick Kane was 28th in scoring as a 18 y/o rookie. Last year, 28th was good for 82 points.
- Pat Lafontaine was 15th in PPG as a 18 y/o rookie (only played 15 games). Brayden Point was 15th in PPG this year with 95 points.

So yeah, 55 points would be unprecedented.

Ya Pavel is out to lunch on how he tries so hard to basically devalue every skill and evey accomplishments Bedard has done. He has an excuse for everything he has done.

Lafontaine I don't like to use (hell of a player). Just to far back and so many differences from then till now.

Kane I see some. The closest I have as a one to one comparison as a prospect would be Crosby. Bedard I have above Kane pretty easily. I have him slightly below Crosby as a prospect. Kane was much more of a perimeter player the Crosby or Bedard. Both Crosby and Bedard are very strong skaters with balance and carry the puck through traffic to high scoring areas. Biggest difference between the two is Bedard will take the shot at a higher rate, and Crosby will dish more. Both are similar size and build coming out, Crosby was slightly bigger. Both were a lot bigger stronger then Kane and at a younger age.

I think Crosby was a slightly better prospect, but I could actually see Bedard have a more productive NHL career, because of the style of hockey played today vs when Crosby entered. No way in today's game would the NHL let Crosby take some of those hits back then.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

We haven't had a prospect as good as Matthews debut. Bedard is the first.

In that time you also had two d-men go #1 (one of them went to college post draft), there was a COVID shortened season (Laf), a player who shouldn't of been in the NHL right away (Hughes) and a prospect who went #1 in a weak draft show ant that great to begin with (Slafkovsky)

Generally, I don't disagree, which is why I expect him to have the best D+1 season since Matthews. At the same time, there will be challenges for him. i think he will struggle being 5'10. Yes, he's pretty strong for an 18 year old. NHL is a different universe from junior hockey. It's the best hockey athletes in the world. There will be an adjustment there. His team also sucks. Yes, it will help that he'll probably get 1C and PP1 minutes, but he won't be able to do it all on his own, and it's possible that like some of the other 1OA's that his coaches really make him earn the 1C and PP1 role over the course of the season, which could impact his stats early on in the season. There will be a defensive adjustment. I think he's a capable defensive player, but he's a shorter center and not an amazing skater. There's just no way around that there's a defensive adjustment coming.

The other area I think there will be an adjustment in is that he's a good skater, but he's not a great skater. He's not going to intimidate defenders with his skating and push them back. Players who can't create space with their skating or physicality struggle sometimes earlier in their NHL career to create offense at the rate they did in leagues where the players are obviously a lot less skilled, but also much closer athletically. The NHL is the best hockey athletes in the world. Bedard will be at an athletic disadvantage, so there will be an adjustment with his skating that I think is being underestimated.

All that said, I expect him to contend for the Calder and have the best D+1 season since Matthews. If he blows those away and has a D+1 closer to McDavid, why would I have a problem being wrong? I simply think the expectations have gotten out of whack, and some people are now shouting down cautious (not pessimistic) views about his rookie season.

 

[Happyhary9]

Generally, I don't disagree, which is why I expect him to have the best D+1 season since Matthews. At the same time, there will be challenges for him. i think he will struggle being 5'10. Yes, he's pretty strong for an 18 year old. NHL is a different universe from junior hockey. It's the best hockey athletes in the world. There will be an adjustment there. His team also sucks. Yes, it will help that he'll probably get 1C and PP1 minutes, but he won't be able to do it all on his own, and it's possible that like some of the other 1OA's that his coaches really make him earn the 1C and PP1 role over the course of the season, which could impact his stats early on in the season. There will be a defensive adjustment. I think he's a capable defensive player, but he's a shorter center and not an amazing skater. There's just no way around that there's a defensive adjustment coming.

The other area I think there will be an adjustment in is that he's a good skater, but he's not a great skater. He's not going to intimidate defenders with his skating and push them back. Players who can't create space with their skating or physicality struggle sometimes earlier in their NHL career to create offense at the rate they did in leagues where the players are obviously a lot less skilled, but also much closer athletically. The NHL is the best hockey athletes in the world. Bedard will be at an athletic disadvantage, so there will be an adjustment with his skating that I think is being underestimated.

All that said, I expect him to contend for the Calder and have the best D+1 season since Matthews. If he blows those away and has a D+1 closer to McDavid, why would I have a problem being wrong? I simply think the expectations have gotten out of whack, and some people are now shouting down cautious (not pessimistic) views about his rookie season.

See this is a much more leveled response. I still believe you underrated him as a skater or maybe put to much value is just high end speed so to speak. At least this post wasn't full of hyperbole type comments.

To me a lot of how many points he ends up with will be a how fast does he mentally adapt to the NHL. You seem to always leave out a major reason on why this kid has dominanted every level like few have before. Yes all Crosby, Bedard and McDavid had elite level physical skill, but they all think the game at a faster speed then the regular guys.

 

[Voight]

Generally, I don't disagree, which is why I expect him to have the best D+1 season since Matthews. At the same time, there will be challenges for him. i think he will struggle being 5'10. Yes, he's pretty strong for an 18 year old. NHL is a different universe from junior hockey. It's the best hockey athletes in the world. There will be an adjustment there. His team also sucks. Yes, it will help that he'll probably get 1C and PP1 minutes, but he won't be able to do it all on his own, and it's possible that like some of the other 1OA's that his coaches really make him earn the 1C and PP1 role over the course of the season, which could impact his stats early on in the season. There will be a defensive adjustment. I think he's a capable defensive player, but he's a shorter center and not an amazing skater. There's just no way around that there's a defensive adjustment coming.

The other area I think there will be an adjustment in is that he's a good skater, but he's not a great skater. He's not going to intimidate defenders with his skating and push them back. Players who can't create space with their skating or physicality struggle sometimes earlier in their NHL career to create offense at the rate they did in leagues where the players are obviously a lot less skilled, but also much closer athletically. The NHL is the best hockey athletes in the world. Bedard will be at an athletic disadvantage, so there will be an adjustment with his skating that I think is being underestimated.

All that said, I expect him to contend for the Calder and have the best D+1 season since Matthews. If he blows those away and has a D+1 closer to McDavid, why would I have a problem being wrong? I simply think the expectations have gotten out of whack, and some people are now shouting down cautious (not pessimistic) views about his rookie season.

Fair points.

FWIW Kane (tho. year older) was 5'10 177lbs his rookie year and was able to transition just fine. Bedard will likely play with Hall so while the team does suck, he should have a pretty decent linemate right off the hop.

Your coaching point is a good one, this is Richardsons first head coach job (and it'll be only his second season) so theres now ay of telling if he will be one of the ones to make a player "earn it." The team is pretty starved for talent so even if that ends up being the case, its not like Bedard will have much competition or have to be "that much better" to secure top minutes.

 

[Crow]

I think he goes about PPG and also he is a much better skater than average.

 

[Happyhary9]

Fair points.

FWIW Kane (tho. year older) was 5'10 177lbs his rookie year and was able to transition just fine. Bedard will likely play with Hall so while the team does suck, he should have a pretty decent linemate right off the hop.

Your coaching point is a good one, this is Richardsons first head coach job (and it'll be only his second season) so theres now ay of telling if he will be one of the ones to make a player "earn it." The team is pretty starved for talent so even if that ends up being the case, its not like Bedard will have much competition or have to be "that much better" to secure top minutes.

Good points. But Pat Kane is 5'10 177 now, not coming out of JR. Out of JR Kane was 5'9 160. But the moment he stepped on NHL ice he got the immediate program bump in the HT/weight department.

 

[EverTheCynic]

80-110

80 pts if hes a Matthews esque play

100ish pts if hes a crosby esque player

110&up if hes Mcdavid esque player

McDavid didn't put up those numbers in his rookie year.

Is McDavid not a mcdavid esque player?

 

[blundluntman]

Here's to hoping Bedard, McDavid and Crosby all score 100 points this season

 

[bobbyking]

80-110

80 pts if hes a Matthews esque play

100ish pts if hes a crosby esque player

110&up if hes Mcdavid esque player


Nore likely he puts up closer to 50 goals then 47 pts

Guys like Hischier, RNH, Hall, Laf, Yakupov, Tavares, and Stamkos put up higher then that or higher pace (well except for Laf)

NHL scoring is higher than when those guys mostly came in 2008-2017 stage

He is also a couple tiers ahead as a prospect than the best of that group

people are under estimating his playmaking its probably better then mcdavid at the same age

 

[TheGuiminator]

Here's to hoping Bedard, McDavid and Crosby all score 100 points this season

That alone would be a nice storyline

The three generational players of the last 3 decades (2000’s, 2010’s & 2020’s) scoring 100 points in the same season.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If Bedard scores less than the 70+ points option, then something went wrong with his season like an injury causing him to miss 20+ games or him not being as good as the hype. Because there's no way a "generational prospect" should play an 82 game season and score less than 70 points. Every single prospect with Bedard's hype has come in and hit the ground running.

 

[BallardEra]

I don't think these voters and posters realize how trash the Hawks are currently lol. Bedard is going to be amazing, but he's gonna have ZERO competitive help surrounding him. If he only scores every other game, that's not gonna be a reflection on him, it's more like "dish the puck to Bedard from behind his own net and pray for the best!" Yeah, he might make magic happen, but he's totally on his own, so lower your expectations...

He could surprise. Ovechkin put up 106 playing with Zubrus and Clark.

Bedard could hit 90+

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

people are under estimating his playmaking its probably better then mcdavid at the same age

His awareness and vision are definitely better than McDavid's. But McDavid was the better overall playmaker, as he was able to create more playmaking opportunities with his speed. McDavid's playmaking has never really been that dependent on having elite vision, he just skates around everyone, creates odd man opportunities, and passes it to the clearly wide open guy. He makes so many cross crease passes - much of his playmaking comes from the bottom of the circles, after beating a defenseman to the outside.

I don't think you'll see a ton of that from Bedard. His vision and playmaking style is reminiscent of Kucherov. He uses a lot of deception to create space for himself, let's things develop in front of him, and then sends a smooth, well timed pass through a seam that others just don't see (these passes are often high to low in the o zone, after he's pulled up for options). If he doesn't like what he sees, the puck will be on net almost instantly. It's a nightmare for goalies to try to stop a guy who can beat you from distance with a wrist shot while also being able make cross ice passes that 99% of the league can't even see let alone execute.

You'll need to be ready to accept a pass you aren't expecting if you're playing with Bedard, whereas with McDavid you're typically going to know you're a passing option just like you would on a 2v1.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Is he gauranteed to be the Hawks #1C right from day one? I think he puts up 90pts. Can only do so much with Taylor Hall as your best support.

Teams have no idea how to defend against him so I expect Connor to rip it up.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

He could surprise. Ovechkin put up 106 playing with Zubrus and Clark.

Bedard could hit 90+

Ovechkin was 20 and much bigger. NHL is very tough for 18 year olds.

 

[BallardEra]

Ovechkin was 20 and much bigger. NHL is very tough for 18 year olds.

True but it's not like he had any great players around him.

Hall isn't a bad start for Bedard I guess.

 

[Toby91ca]

Ovechkin was 20 and much bigger. NHL is very tough for 18 year olds.

Ok....Crosby put up 102pts at 18 and ultimately didn't have anyone to work with other than name power, but past their prime teammates.....closest teammate had 58pts.

It is incredibly difficult for someone to come in at 18 and do that....Crosby is in a rare class there, but Bedard is hyped to be there.....time will tell.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

I hear there is a guy by the name of Pat Kane who is looking for a team to sign with and he would be a huge benefit and mentor to Bedard.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I hear there is a guy by the name of Pat Kane who is looking for a team to sign with and he would be a huge benefit and mentor to Bedard.

I would think he'd sign somewhere with a chance to win

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

I would think he'd sign somewhere with a chance to win

He would have automatically resigned with the Rangers.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He would have automatically resigned with the Rangers.

You mean the team that got skated into the ground in the first round? And got even slower?