Barzal vs Marner

[Cleatus]

If Marner matched his W/Kadri scoring rate all of last season, he would’ve only scored 2 more 5V5 points. So, you’d be taking a big leap by betting everything you own that he would score 13 more points.

I don’t have an issue with your comment regarding the #1 role but you also have to consider the role Marner is currently in. No, he isn’t sheltered by Tavares, but he’s playing next to Tavares with other strong teammates, riding high percentages, etc.



My argument is based on two seasons and three for each individual player, yours is based on one season each for the individual players and their teammates, and juniors.

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember Marner being on pace for like 6 goals and 45 points when he played with Bozak and JvR (talking last season only). Then when he got switched to the Kadri line, he played at an above PPG pace, and finished the year with 19 goals and 69 points.

So long as my memory serves me right, I still believe Marner would've been above PPG if he played with Kadri the whole year.

And on that note, Kadri's numbers would've also been better in this scenario, as Babcock forced him to play with Komarov for a lot of the season (it was brutal to watch).

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Some players are better shooters/scorers and and have a better shooting percentage as a result.

You can’t scale another players up, it just sounds like “if he had better aim he’d have more points”.

Your argument makes sense if you are only talking about individual shooting percentage. You are aware that there is a difference between individual and on ice shooting percentage, correct? Because your post makes me think you are not.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So Barzal has regressed? Or was he in a far more favourable position last year?

He's had worse puck luck this year, as evidenced by his on ice shooting percentage.

 

[Regal]

The sample size is awful, it also doesn’t account for linemates or player role. It is not a good argument.

It has nothing to do with sample size and little to do with teammates though, because this is true for all players. We're talking about on-ice shooting percentage, not individual shooting percentage. That means the percentage of shots that go in while the player is on the ice, which means opportunities for points. And while playing with good shooters can improve it, the majority of players can't sustain a 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage over 10 and most trend toward 8. Marner is currently at 11.57. Earlier in the year, before he slowed down, he was above 12. He's going to regress to the mean same as everyone else, despite whatever protestations from fans. It happens like clockwork every season. It doesn't mean he isn't a great player, but it does mean his point gap on Barzal isn't indicative of their abilities

 

[Mitchy]

It has nothing to do with sample size and little to do with teammates though, because this is true for all players. We're talking about on-ice shooting percentage, not individual shooting percentage. That means the percentage of shots that go in while the player is on the ice, which means opportunities for points. And while playing with good shooters can improve it, the majority of players can't sustain a 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage over 10. Marner is currently at 11.57. Earlier in the year, before he slowed down, he was above 12. He's going to regress to the mean same as everyone else, despite whatever protestations from fans. It happens like clockwork every season.

It's important to note that scoring is much higher this season and on-ice shooting percentages are up throughout the league. For instance, last season (min 200 minutes) at 5v5, there were 11 players with on oish% over 11. This season (min 200 minutes), there are 36 players over 11 (with 1 being at 11). Marner is 17th in the league (interestingly enough also 7th in the league at 5v5 scoring chances for per 60 and 18th overall). Marner's really not that much higher than other top end guys in terms of oish%. Crosby's ahead of him, Kuznetsov and Kane are just below him.

All in all, his oish% probably is a bit unsustainable and will drop, but I don't think it'll drop by a massive amount. On ice shooting percentages are much higher this season.

 

[Regal]

It's important to note that scoring is much higher this season and on-ice shooting percentages are up throughout the league. For instance, last season (min 200 minutes) at 5v5, there were 11 players with on oish% over 11. This season (min 200 minutes), there are 36 players over 11 (with 1 being at 11). Marner is 17th in the league (interestingly enough also 7th in the league at 5v5 scoring chances for per 60 and 18th overall). Marner's really not that much higher than other top end guys in terms of oish%. Crosby's ahead of him, Kuznetsov and Kane are just below him.

All in all, his oish% probably is a bit unsustainable and will drop, but I don't think it'll drop by a massive amount. On ice shooting percentages are much higher this season.

I hadn't looked into those numbers this season as much and thought that might be a bit of the case. Though you could argue that just means that Barzal's numbers are unsustainably low. Marner's ES % is also at 13, which is pretty high. I don't want to discredit Marner really. He's a star and I don't think he's going to fall off massively or anything. But I do think the production difference between him and Barzal this year is likely to narrow.

 

[RMimagery]

Marner. Barzal regressed just like we thought he would without Tavares taking the tougher minutes. I am sure he'll bounce back next year though.

Nah, not about Tavares. More about Barzal's playing in a defensive system, allowing the fewest goals.

Something TOR could benefit from.

 

[Intact]

I voted for Barzal to give at least one vote from a Leaf fan haha. I think Marner is closer to his peak than Barzal is

 

[wingnutks]

Marner. Barzal regressed just like we thought he would without Tavares taking the tougher minutes. I am sure he'll bounce back next year though.

Most of Barzal point regression has come from the massive system change, not so much from lack of sheltering. He took a majority of the hard match ups the second half of last season and his production went up. I dont know if Barzal will ever get back to 85 points again. His defensive play also isnt much better this year. In a vacuum, I would say Marner>Barzal right now. However in reality Isles need Barzal more than Marner and vice versa for the Leafs

 

[Smif]

Nah, not about Tavares. More about Barzal's playing in a defensive system, allowing the fewest goals.

Something TOR could benefit from.

It's all about goal differential. Which we're 2nd / 3rd in the league...

 

[koyvoo]

Marner

 

[Paul4587]

This season easily Marner. When its all said and done I think Barzal will be the better player though.

 

[Yackiberg8]

He's had worse puck luck this year, as evidenced by his on ice shooting percentage.

Do you think the players on the ice have no impact on the on-ice shooting percentage? Because your post makes me think that you do.

Pretty weak argument if all you can say is that hypothetically if Barzal were able to create more offence then he would have more points so this means he’s better. He had a higher on-ice shooting percentage 1 year so this means that will be his norm for his whole career even though there is no evidence of that.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Nah, not about Tavares. More about Barzal's playing in a defensive system, allowing the fewest goals.

Something TOR could benefit from.

Defensive system or unsustainable goaltending?
Could be both I suppose....

 

[Beyonder91]

Love them both but I think Marner is going to be the better player.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Marner 81 pts, +25

Barzal 52 points, -15

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marner 81 pts, +25

Barzal 52 points, -15

I'm surprised you're the first one to mention this. Plus/minus is normally a stat that should be ignored but when Barzal has by far the worst +- on his team it's well, hard to ignore.

 

[Apotheosis]

I'll take the guy who's currently top 10 in scoring and what, 2 points away from tying 4th?

 

[BayStreetBully]

I'm surprised you're the first one to mention this. Plus/minus is normally a stat that should be ignored but when Barzal has by far the worst +- on his team it's well, hard to ignore.

I’m not a big proponent of +/-, but when the disparity is so great, or when a player is at such an extreme in relation to his own teammate peers and team performance, then it must be mentioned.

 

[Scott Stevens]

I’m with the Leaf on this one
Marner is a fantastic player

 

[IPS]

Barzal will never be on Marner's current level.

He'll ride that reputation from his fluke rookie year for a little while yet before people catch on.

 

[FourRings]

Barzal will never be on Marner's current level.

He'll ride that reputation from his fluke rookie year for a little while yet before people catch on.

Care to elaborate on how Barzal's rookie season was a fluke?

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

How in the world is this close?

Anyone with a brain could have predicted Barzal would crumble when his usage got a little better.

 

[Beyonder91]

I'm surprised you're the first one to mention this. Plus/minus is normally a stat that should be ignored but when Barzal has by far the worst +- on his team it's well, hard to ignore.

It should be noted that Babcock matches Marner against other top lines. He had even said if Matthews was put with Marner he would need to be prepared to play against top lines.
Marner also has the best +- as a forward on the team which is pretty telling for how good he has been.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

Hard not to take the play driving 1C who has proven he can produce 80+ points without an elite linemate, and is now the 1C on one of the top teams in the league. This season's production is pretty misleading due to on ice percentage variance - if Barzal enjoyed the same oiSh% as Marner (and we assume point production scaled with oiSh%), he'd have ~81 points.

Barzal's on ice shooting percentages are still way low at (7.37 at 5v5, 8.51 all situations), while Marner's are very high at 11.57 at 5v5, 13.21 all situations). So shots are going in at a 55-56% higher rate for Marner than for Barzal. Part of that is due to Marner spending time with elite finishers like Tavares and Matthews, and the other part is probably puck luck.

Beyond that, I think Barzal is just flat out more naturally talented. Marner has the better overall anticipation, but Barzal is a game breaking skater and puck carrier, is stronger on the puck, and has the better shot. Both guys have elite vision and hands, tough to pick a winner there.

This is not to take anything away from Marner who is having a terrific season and is a great player.

One season of production doesn’t equal a player. I’m sure if Babcock played a run and gun system that Marner would have hit 80 plus points ages ago. Alas, there is this thing called defence that needs to be played.