Barzal vs Marner

[Kelly]

Hot topic last year, let's revisit.

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[Crazy Monkey]

Both elite talents. Both loved by their fan bases. Both of equal value

Marner represents everything you want in a Maple Leaf.

 

[Icebreakers]

Barzal was better last year. Marner has been better this year although he's playing with much superior linemates.

 

[Just Linda]

I'll take the centre.

Though I'd love to see how Barzal looks with the linemates Marner has. Marner definitely is funner to watch this year.

 

[Spirit of 67]

I'll simply repost my answer from an identical thread started a day before.

I don't even care anymore.

Marner is a Leaf. Leafs are my team. I love watching Marner and wouldn't trade him in a 1 for 1 deal.
If people don't agree or are personally fake outraged by it, too bad.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

marner

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Hard not to take the play driving 1C who has proven he can produce 80+ points without an elite linemate, and is now the 1C on one of the top teams in the league. This season's production is pretty misleading due to on ice percentage variance - if Barzal enjoyed the same oiSh% as Marner (and we assume point production scaled with oiSh%), he'd have ~81 points.

Barzal's on ice shooting percentages are still way low at (7.37 at 5v5, 8.51 all situations), while Marner's are very high at 11.57 at 5v5, 13.21 all situations). So shots are going in at a 55-56% higher rate for Marner than for Barzal. Part of that is due to Marner spending time with elite finishers like Tavares and Matthews, and the other part is probably puck luck.

Beyond that, I think Barzal is just flat out more naturally talented. Marner has the better overall anticipation, but Barzal is a game breaking skater and puck carrier, is stronger on the puck, and has the better shot. Both guys have elite vision and hands, tough to pick a winner there.

This is not to take anything away from Marner who is having a terrific season and is a great player.

 

[MyBudJT]

Marner has been slumping lately, but when he's on, there are very few people in the NHL I'd rather have on my team.

 

[member 147413]

Hard not to take the play driving 1C who has proven he can produce 80+ points without an elite linemate, and is now the 1C on one of the top teams in the league. This season's production is pretty misleading due to on ice percentage variance - if Barzal enjoyed the same oiSh% as Marner (and we assume point production scaled with oiSh%), he'd have ~81 points.

Barzal's on ice shooting percentages are still way low at (7.37 at 5v5, 8.51 all situations), while Marner's are very high at 11.57 at 5v5, 13.21 all situations). So shots are going in at a 55-56% higher rate for Marner than for Barzal. Part of that is due to Marner spending time with elite finishers like Tavares and Matthews, and the other part is probably puck luck.

Beyond that, I think Barzal is just flat out more naturally talented. Marner has the better overall anticipation, but Barzal is a game breaking skater and puck carrier, is stronger on the puck, and has the better shot. Both guys have elite vision and hands, tough to pick a winner there.

This is not to take anything away from Marner who is having a terrific season and is a great player.

Some players are better shooters/scorers and and have a better shooting percentage as a result.

You can’t scale another players up, it just sounds like “if he had better aim he’d have more points”.

 

[HarryLime]

Pretty even

 

[Pyrophorus]

Equal.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Some players are better shooters/scorers and and have a better shooting percentage as a result.

You can’t scale another players up, it just sounds like “if he had better aim he’d have more points”.

Barzal had a higher oiSH% last season and has a higher individual shooting percentage over their careers, so I don’t see any evidence to suggest that Marner is a better shooter/scorer.

 

[justafan22]

Equal, though Marner's been slumping recently

 

[Pi]

Marner. Barzal regressed just like we thought he would without Tavares taking the tougher minutes. I am sure he'll bounce back next year though.

 

[Mickey Marner]

They've now both out-played John Tavares.

 

[Cleatus]

Marner until Barzal's production reaches Marner-level. Then he wins due to positional importance.

Both are tremendous.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Marner until Barzal's production reaches Marner-level. Then he wins due to positional importance.

Both are tremendous.

Marner is currently 12th in scoring, Barzal finished 13th last season as a rookie.

 

[Cleatus]

Marner is currently 12th in scoring, Barzal finished 13th last season as a rookie.

True enough, but Barzal was sheltered, played run and gun hockey, and had five 5 point games to inflate his stats. Marner also had to play with JvR and Blowzak, which hindered his production severely. If he played with Kadri the whole season, I'd bet everything I own he would've been at least PPG.

So basically, for me, Barzal needs to prove he can put up big numbers in the #1 role before I vote for him.

 

[member 147413]

Barzal had a higher oiSH% last season and has a higher individual shooting percentage over their careers, so I don’t see any evidence to suggest that Marner is a better shooter/scorer.

Over their careers? This is Barzals second season and Marners 3rd.

Marner was a significantly better scorer in junior as well. Your argument is very weak.

 

[member 147413]

Marner is currently 12th in scoring, Barzal finished 13th last season as a rookie.

So Barzal has regressed? Or was he in a far more favourable position last year?

 

[member 147413]

I haven’t voted, I don’t watch Barzal enough.

Does Barzal PK? How is his defensive game. +/- isn’t a tell all, but -12 on a positive goal differential and Top 10 team in the league isn’t favourable.

 

[Regal]

Over their careers? This is Barzals second season and Marners 3rd.

Marner was a significantly better scorer in junior as well. Your argument is very weak.

Few players have a significant effect on on-ice shooting percentage. This has widely been shown to be regress to the mean for most players. It is not a bad argument

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

True enough, but Barzal was sheltered, played run and gun hockey, and had five 5 point games to inflate his stats. Marner also had to play with JvR and Blowzak, which hindered his production severely. If he played with Kadri the whole season, I'd bet everything I own he would've been at least PPG.

So basically, for me, Barzal needs to prove he can put up big numbers in the #1 role before I vote for him.

If Marner matched his W/Kadri scoring rate all of last season, he would’ve only scored 2 more 5V5 points. So, you’d be taking a big leap by betting everything you own that he would score 13 more points.

I don’t have an issue with your comment regarding the #1 role but you also have to consider the role Marner is currently in. No, he isn’t sheltered by Tavares, but he’s playing next to Tavares with other strong teammates, riding high percentages, etc.

Over their careers? This is Barzals second season and Marners 3rd.

Marner was a significantly better scorer in junior as well. Your argument is very weak.

My argument is based on two seasons and three for each individual player, yours is based on one season each for the individual players and their teammates, and juniors.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think two areas Marner has excelled this year over Barzal are his ability to more consistently make the simpler play (Barzal can still hold onto the puck too long) and his willingness to shoot more often. I think the latter makes Marner tougher to defend because you don't know whether to take away the pass or the shot.

Overall, they're very similar players. Great playmakers with excellent vision who can still chip in 20+ goals.

 

[member 147413]

Few players have a significant effect on on-ice shooting percentage. This has widely been shown to be regress to the mean for most players. It is not a bad argument

The sample size is awful, it also doesn’t account for linemates or player role. It is not a good argument.