Avs44
Registered User
- May 16, 2011
- 21,709
- 10,260
Oh I don't believe he will be a 60+ point player into his late 30's, but that still really has nothing to do with the Gomez argument that began this. Gomez fell off a cliff over night. A player peaking in their mid 20's, plateauing, then entering a slow and gradual decline up until the point of retirement is pretty much the path of every good forward in the league. If this HabsGorgeous fellow wants to argue that Duchene is going to follow that path he can knock himself out. A boring and self-obvious argument, but a likely correct one nonetheless based on what most NHLers do. But what he's basically saying is that right after the trade happens, just like the McDonagh / Gomez swap, is that Duchene will quickly turn into Gomez, Sergachev will quickly turn into McDonagh, and boom, another terrible trade for the Habs. He's essentially arguing that Duchene is done within the next 1-2 years here or so based on the entire comparison he's drawing.
ROR is not a brilliant skater, but obviously it's passable and he's smart enough to make it work. But slow him down significantly from where he is now and I don't agree that he still makes it work to nearly the same extent, or that he could manage to be nearly as effective at both ends of the ice. He would have to overcompensate somewhere, and that would either result in a significant drop in his defensive play or offensive zone play. If you slow him down significantly he can't keep enough to backcheck the way he does, and he couldn't have his feet keep up with his mind reading and cutting off plays, while also playing down low offensively. At some point he couldn't manage that anymore and he either becomes neutered offensively, or useless defensively. I acknowledged that of course McDavid would still be excellent, but take away his speed significantly, a still excellent skater, and he would lose a bit of an edge that he currently has. His ability to move at top speed with the puck turns most defenders into a pretzel. There's nobody in the league who has his combination of speed, talent, and intelligence, and his intelligence allows him to maximize that speed to the point of being unstoppable.
I don't really think it's that shocking to think that Duchene has peaked and is now plateauing. Based on his age that is where he should be right about now. I could see him having one more 'great' season within the next few years if he gets out of here, but he certainly won't get consistently better. Obviously if he drastically slows down that changes everything - but as I believe, that argument can be said for every player, which in turn means it's not a valid argument - but if you just take away a bit more speed I think he makes it work quite comfortably. All I really see is him, if that does happen, transforming from an offense generator who runs a line to someone who becomes more of a 1B player on his line with a really good linemate - possibly with Duchene on the wing even - and he transforms into more a goal scorer who excels down low. He's quite strong on his feet, is shifty, and has really good hands with the puck and in terms of finishing. I think he can make that transition, and I don't think you're giving him quite enough credit for his intelligence. His game has changed quite a bit since his rookie season, and he has shown an ability to change his game in a fairly impressive fashion in my view. The goal scoring Duchene of last year when he was on MacKinnon's wing for a bit was completely different from his normal style. I really don't see him having any drastic fall off unless something happens and his speed just collapses, but that is a risk with practically anyone in the league regarding an unforeseen circumstance.
