Rumor: Avs Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents 18-19 part XXVII|Crosby+MacK = Tim's Empire

[Foppa2118]

I'm well aware. We wont rehash that one but that's certainly not how the conversation went aside from the fact that yeah Girard gave up a very high number of HDCA.


You might be a fan of them individually(And lets not kid ourselves you're not a big fan of Barrie by any means), but you have always maintained that two smaller guys cant work well together. Despite Cousin Eddie very convincingly laying out every possible stat you could look for to suggest they have gotten off to a great start in the very brief time spent on a pairing together. You brushed those off completely and instead picked out three very weak "mistakes" to try and suggest they dont work well together.

Either you completely disregard advanced stats entirely(Which is another major issue in and of itself), or you are just trying to push that angle of yours about two small puck moving guys not being able to play together. Since I dont believe it is the first one its gotta be the second one.

Ignoring the mischaracterization of how I view Barrie and smaller defenseman paired together, lets talk about the stats.

Firstly, ten minutes together is way too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions from. Secondly, even with that sample, there are stats that both support and refute the idea that they're better together.

- 16 shot attempts for and 9 against.

This is a corsi stat. There’s not a big enough sample to put much into this, but I wouldn’t dispute it’s good when they’re together. It went up a little to 64% when together, but to my point about hurting the other defensive pairs, check out the number without both Makar and Barrie. It’s 50.23%. Nemeth with Makar is 62.79% and Barrie with Zadorov is 57.25%.

- 9 scoring chances for and 5 against.

Their SCF% is 64.29% together. Makar with Nemeth is actually higher at 68.18%. Barrie with Zadorov goes down a bit to 59.68%.

Their SCA% when Barrie and Makar are together is 35.71%. Makar with Nemeth is actually lower at 31.82%. Barrie with Zadorov is 40.32%

Again, too small a sample with only 10 minutes together to draw much of a conclusion from, but even within this sample, the same stats suggest that the other defense pairs are much worse without Barrie and Makar with them, and Makar and Nemeth are actually better in SCF and SCA, then Makar is with Barrie.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Ignoring the mischaracterization of how I view Barrie and smaller defenseman paired together, lets talk about the stats.

Firstly, ten minutes together is way too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions from. Secondly, even with that sample, there are stats that both support and refute the idea that they're better together.

- 16 shot attempts for and 9 against.

This is a corsi stat. There’s not a big enough sample to put much into this, but I wouldn’t dispute it’s good when they’re together. It went up a little to 64% when together, but to my point about hurting the other defensive pairs, check out the number without both Makar and Barrie. It’s 50.23%. Nemeth with Makar is 62.79% and Barrie with Zadorov is 57.25%.

- 9 scoring chances for and 5 against.

Their SCF% is 64.29% together. Makar with Nemeth is actually higher at 68.18%. Barrie with Zadorov goes down a bit to 59.68%.

Their SCA% when Barrie and Makar are together is 35.71%. Makar with Nemeth is actually lower at 31.82%. Barrie with Zadorov is 40.32%

Again, too small a sample with only 10 minutes together to draw much of a conclusion from, but even within this sample, the same stats suggest that the other defense pairs are much worse without Barrie and Makar with them, and Makar and Nemeth are actually better in SCF and SCA, then Makar is with Barrie.

To the first bold. I can agree.

As for the rest, and again the sample size is too small. But it essentially is boiling down to a pretty quick picture which is that Nemeth/Zadorov simply aren't great Defenseman. Nemeth is decent Defensively but provides very little offensively. When Barrie and Makar are on the ice together they create a tonne of offense from the back end. The sample size is small but its already starting to paint a pretty good picture. Especially as Makar gets more comfortable in the NHL.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Tyson Barrie and Cale Makar have been on the ice together for a grand total of 10 minutes 5v5.

In those 10 minutes they have
- 3 goals. 0 against.
- 16 shot attempts for and 9 against.
- 12 shots on goal for and 6 against.
- 9 scoring chances for and 5 against.
- 6 high danger shot attempts and 2 against.

I don’t care if they’re 6’5 or 5’6. Until this pairing stops working I’m putting them together every shift other than those that begin with a faceoff in our own end. In fact, I’d like to see them start a few in our end. They may even surprise a few people by transitioning the puck from the D zone to the O zone.

I like these stats. Do you have giveaways and takeaways for their pairing, too?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I like these stats. Do you have giveaways and takeaways for their pairing, too?

I dunno the stats for the two while they're together. But Makar has 0 giveaways and 6 takeaways in his 3 games so far while Barrie is at 2 and 2.

So, they're very likely quite good numbers together as well.

 

[Papa Francouz]

I dunno the stats for the two while they're together. But Makar has 0 giveaways and 6 takeaways in his 3 games so far while Barrie is at 2 and 2.

So, they're very likely quite good numbers together as well.

Makes sense. Cale’s 0 giveaways in 3 playoff games as a 20-year old defenseman is nuts. It’ll be interesting to see how he changes his game against SJ or Vegas.

 

[Foppa2118]

To the first bold. I can agree.

As for the rest, and again the sample size is too small. But it essentially is boiling down to a pretty quick picture which is that Nemeth/Zadorov simply aren't great Defenseman. Nemeth is decent Defensively but provides very little offensively. When Barrie and Makar are on the ice together they create a tonne of offense from the back end. The sample size is small but its already starting to paint a pretty good picture. Especially as Makar gets more comfortable in the NHL.

I don't think we view Zadorov the same, but I'm glad we can find common ground on the sample size.

I would also like to emphasize that a big part of why I'd prefer Makar and Barrie on separate pairings (outside a need for a big goal) is because of the effect on the other pairings. That is equally, if not a bigger reason why I have that preference.

If you pair two of your best puck movers together full time or nearly full time, then the other two pairs suffer. EJ, Cole, Zadorov, and Nemeth have to handle the puck more, and that's the kind of blueline the Avs had a few years ago when it was their biggest weakness. The addition of Girard and now Makar have improved the team a great deal, thanks to them being able to help the more defensive guys with passing and puck mobility.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Makes sense. Cale’s 0 giveaways in 3 playoff games as a 20-year old defenseman is nuts. It’ll be interesting to see how he changes his game against SJ or Vegas.

It's certainly better to see him with 0 giveaways then to have 5 or 6 giveaways no doubt.


But, giveaways and takeaways aren't the most reliable stat to look at. They're tracked by employees at each individual arena and the criteria for a takeaway or a giveaway are often times very arbitrary from one arena to the next. Its why a few years back you would see almost every season like 5-6 NYI players at the top of the league for takeaways, because the NYI employee tracking the stats was extremely generous as to what constituted a takeaway.


While on the other hand Corsi stats are more reliable because they generally have the same criteria from bulding to building.

 

[Foppa2118]

Makes sense. Cale’s 0 giveaways in 3 playoff games as a 20-year old defenseman is nuts. It’ll be interesting to see how he changes his game against SJ or Vegas.

I think Makar's transition has been great, and I don't have a lot of concerns over his defensive ability going forward.

That 0 giveaways stat isn't correct though. He's got at least one in the video I posted. I feel like there was another on the breakout too, but I can't remember. Nothing that you wouldn't expect from him jumping straight into the playoffs though.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I don't think we view Zadorov the same, but I'm glad we can find common ground on the sample size.

I would also like to emphasize that a big part of why I'd prefer Makar and Barrie on separate pairings (outside a need for a big goal) is because of the effect on the other pairings. That is equally, if not a bigger reason why I have that preference.

If you pair two of your best puck movers together full time or nearly full time, then the other two pairs suffer. EJ, Cole, Zadorov, and Nemeth have to handle the puck more, and that's the kind of blueline the Avs had a few years ago when it was their biggest weakness. The addition of Girard and now Makar have improved the team a great deal, thanks to them being able to help the more defensive guys with passing and puck mobility.

But the better solution quite frankly is just to move Nemeth and Zadorov for upgrades. That's maybe not realistic but you shouldn't split up something great because it makes a couple other guys worse.

It's like the 9296 line for a long stretch of time this season. Putting those 3 together made the rest of our forwards look a lot worse. But those guys were doing so damn well together that you simply couldn't break them up.

Well, Makar and Barrie are showing some very early signs of potentially being an elite pairing together very soon. It's just not a great idea to split them up because it makes two of our depth guys worse. Just play Barrie and Makar more and the two of those guys less. Or better yet since Nemeth especially does seem to have strong defensive numbers, pair him with Zadorov and give them those shut down minutes to really allow Makar and Barrie to run wild with some great opportunities to create offense together.


If anything, IMO the summer plan would be to let Nemeth go and replace him with a better puck mover so that way you can pair that new Puck mover with Zadorov on the 3rd pairing, and run Makar/Barrie/Girard/EJ in the Top 4.

I think Makar's transition has been great, and I don't have a lot of concerns over his defensive ability going forward.

That 0 giveaways stat isn't correct though. He's got at least one in the video I posted. I feel like there was another on the breakout too, but I can't remember. Nothing that you wouldn't expect from him jumping straight into the playoffs though.

I mean... It is. You can look at any site, they all show he has 0 giveaways. As I said earlier that play(If we're talking about the first play) was not on him, it was on the forwards.

 

[Foppa Frossa]

I wonder how NSH fans feel about PK Subban's contract. Wonder if they'd trade him for a 2nd line player.

PK's top season is 60 points, and let's not forget he had Michal Bournival on his team at that time

 

[Foppa2118]

I mean... It is. You can look at any site, they all show he has 0 giveaways. As I said earlier that play(If we're talking about the first play) was not on him, it was on the forwards.

I know it's listed that way, but stats like giveaways and takeaways can be subjective, or sometimes just missed. It's part of the human element of tallying these stats on the score sheet, and then other sites and aggregators relying on them.

I wasn't referring to the first play in the video, but the third where Makar lost the puck along the wall. They might not have scored this a giveaway because he didn't have control long enough, but to me that's a giveaway since he didn't have anyone on him.

This one for sure is a giveaway though. Not that it's a big deal. He's going to have these hiccups in his first regular season let alone the playoffs.

 

[lonelybadger]

I don’t know if you guys know this but I’ve played hockey at the highest level and I say Makar is the best.

And by highest level I mean nhl 94 emulator on my phone during a flight.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I wonder how NSH fans feel about PK Subban's contract. Wonder if they'd trade him for a 2nd line player.

If they are regretting Subban's contract. Then some people have some serious Crow to eat with their comments about the Weber trade.

 

[Balthazar]

If they are regretting Subban's contract. Then some people have some serious Crow to eat with their comments about the Weber trade.

Subban has been rumored to be on the trade block for a while now. Dallas just eliminated them in round 1, some changes have to be made and he's likely at the top of the list.

 

[Papa Francouz]

It's certainly better to see him with 0 giveaways then to have 5 or 6 giveaways no doubt.


But, giveaways and takeaways aren't the most reliable stat to look at. They're tracked by employees at each individual arena and the criteria for a takeaway or a giveaway are often times very arbitrary from one arena to the next. Its why a few years back you would see almost every season like 5-6 NYI players at the top of the league for takeaways, because the NYI employee tracking the stats was extremely generous as to what constituted a takeaway.


While on the other hand Corsi stats are more reliable because they generally have the same criteria from bulding to building.

Yeah, that’s a good point. I just wanted to see his takeaways more than anything else, and figured I could check out giveaways while I’m at it. I know they’re just raw totals and don’t signify much of anything, but my curiosity needed to be satiated.

I think Makar's transition has been great, and I don't have a lot of concerns over his defensive ability going forward.

That 0 giveaways stat isn't correct though. He's got at least one in the video I posted. I feel like there was another on the breakout too, but I can't remember. Nothing that you wouldn't expect from him jumping straight into the playoffs though.

You don’t think the Vegas forecheck is going to have an impact on him, if the Knights take the series? SJ seems to not press as hard, but with Vegas skating the way they do and their physical play, I think it’d be much different for Makar than the Calgary series. I don’t doubt he’ll adjust, but I’m wondering exactly what he’ll have to adjust to play better in the series.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Subban has been rumored to be on the trade block for a while now. Dallas just eliminated them in round 1, some changes have to be made and he's likely at the top of the list.

There is part of me that thinks they would have been better off with Jones than either of Weber or Subban if they could have used them to trade for a center. Just saying lol..

For all of the love Nashville has gotten they haven't always made the right move in hindsight.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Yeah, that’s a good point. I just wanted to see his takeaways more than anything else, and figured I could check out giveaways while I’m at it. I know they’re just raw totals and don’t signify much of anything, but my curiosity needed to be satiated.



You don’t think the Vegas forecheck is going to have an impact on him, if the Knights take the series? SJ seems to not press as hard, but with Vegas skating the way they do and their physical play, I think it’d be much different for Makar than the Calgary series. I don’t doubt he’ll adjust, but I’m wondering exactly what he’ll have to adjust to play better in the series.

I think even Calgary was hammering us with their hits. We are always going to get dominated physically.

 

[Barklez]

I wonder how NSH fans feel about PK Subban's contract. Wonder if they'd trade him for a 2nd line player.

Subban has been rumored to be on the trade block for a while now. Dallas just eliminated them in round 1, some changes have to be made and he's likely at the top of the list.

Barrie for PK. Everybody wins but MacK.

 

[Gabe the Babe]

Barrie for PK. Everybody wins but MacK.

I’d rather have Barrie. Easily.

 

[Foppa2118]

You don’t think the Vegas forecheck is going to have an impact on him, if the Knights take the series? SJ seems to not press as hard, but with Vegas skating the way they do and their physical play, I think it’d be much different for Makar than the Calgary series. I don’t doubt he’ll adjust, but I’m wondering exactly what he’ll have to adjust to play better in the series.

I think it could happen, but I don't know if it will. That's what's so interesting about watching how he adapts to the NHL playoffs right off the bat. He's doing something by jumping straight into the playoffs, that very few prospects can do, and he's holding his own and contributing in a lot of ways.

I think no matter who the opponent is he'll be tested on the forecheck. Adjusting to how quickly the opposition jumps on you in the NHL, is the biggest adjustment for young defenseman. It forces you to react quicker than you're used to, and sometimes it leads to mistakes.

That said, Makar has a real good awareness to his game. He has a real good read on where everybody is at on the ice, and what they're doing. Plus he has the wheels to get himself out of danger, as soon as he senses it. So the only thing he needs to do is hone that awareness to realize you can find yourself in trouble in the NHL quicker than you're used to ever happening in a hockey game.

I don't think it will take him too long to figure that out though, and adjust to the quicker pace. Whether that happens fully this year in the playoffs, I'm not sure, but I also wouldn't be that surprised to see him just get better and better each game, and (hopefully) each series.

 

[AvsCOL]

I’d rather have Barrie. Easily.

I agree. Barrie is cheaper, younger, produces around the same, and comes without the baggage.

Barrie > Subban for this team and it's not even close.

 

[MarkT]

I'm not arguing to only have smurfs on the blueline like we had prior to the EJ-trade...at least not right away ...I'm just rebuking the notion that we couldn't survive with 3 of them next to Zads / EJ / Cole / Nemo / Meloche / Timmins(?) or that a pairing of two of them doesn't benefit the team a lot more than they give up when on the ice.

Sure they might get burnt on occasion, but I'd rather get burned occasionally then be stuck in our own zone for much longer because we couldn't get to loose pucks fast enough or get out of the zone once we did get the puck, like we saw happen to the Cole-EJ pairing on some shifts. Yes we take on a little more risk, but we do so for a significant benefit which decreases our risk on the whole; which happens to be the best way for a team to gain competitive advantages on its peers in a league as obsessed with parity as this one.

EDIT:
There was a similar debate in world football in the 2000s, when the game went through another one of its major evolutions as the brightest minds in the sport realized that "managing risk" didn't mean avoiding it at all costs. And developed new strategies & tactics that took advantage of the better training & athletes that modern players received/were. A similar thing also happened recently with Basketball; where the on-going 3volution should've become a thing the instant you had kids who had grown up with a 3-pt line, but because it felt riskier this change only happened after the GSW dynasty took power.

Hockey is entering a similar phase were teams are realizing that speed & puck control have a massive net benefit even if it comes with some uptick in risk, which is why we keep seeing players getting smaller, faster, & more skilled...this doesn't mean that a balance is no longer important nor that big, fast & skilled players aren't awesome to have...but that is a wave which some teams will ride to glory, and others will be left behind by. And between the blueliners we've got coming together & our top line, we have a great opportunity to land amongst the former.

Uhhh... you may want to focus more on reading than ranting...

I think people are kidding themselves if they think that Avs can just build a defense of smallish offensive defensemen and think it will produce winning hockey. I think the ideal setup is 3 offensive-minded guys and 3 defensive-minded guys, with all 6 capable of playing at least solid defense and capable of at least making a good first pass. And the two spares should fit that mold as well. That's the ideal the Avs should be building towards.

And I didn't even write that as a reply to you.

 

[Patagonia]

Barrie for PK. Everybody wins but MacK.

Why?

Trade Barrie group wants him gone due to either: contract demands or expansion draft. RHD is the deepest position. Getting Subban is at best, lateral move.

Painful to admit, I rather keep Barrie than trade for that awful contract and immature player.

 

[MarkT]

Subban in an Avs jersey would be a real serious test of my Avs fandom vs my hatred of that player. I hope Sakic doesn't put me through that, and to be honest I don't think he will given how focused he is on guys who "play the right way".

 

[lonelybadger]

I can see Barrie sticking around for a 4-5 year deal at around 7 million a year. He seems to like it here, is finding success and gets to stay with his best friend.

Are there any other teams in the NHL that can offer cap space, fit, and playoffs?