Rumor: Avs Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents 18-19 part XVII| Are We Sellers?

[lonelybadger]

Keller has regressed a bit this year after having a strong year. But I mean it’s possible, its just a big risk to put all our marbles in draft picks. I mean if we can use our pick to get a 2nd liner we might as well go for it.

1 Draft Pick 3 Players!!!

 

[Meeqs]

Nashville had a 6 game losing streak with Laviolette who took them to the SC finals a couple years ago, and Poille is just as loyal, if not more so than Sakic to his coaches. Look how long Trotz lasted. They were also 1st or 2nd still in the Central, not a wild card team like the Avs.

The Pens had a 5 game losing streak this year, and won back to back Stanley Cups with Mike Sullivan, before losing to the eventual Cup winners in Washington last year.

Neither are examples of a coach surviving an 8 game losing streak, nor are they comparable to the Avs situation where they haven't won anything recently, and were in a good playoff position earlier, only to have it start slipping away.

There's a limit to the losing streak that any coach can get away with, and luck is not at all the reason for why the Avs have been playing like crap. They've been playing like crap because they're playing like crap. Luck is not the reason they've been making tons of mental errors, bad passes, and taking bad penalties.

Again, I'm not saying that Bednar will or should be fired, but coaches have been fired for less than an 8 or a 6 game losing streak. Saying, "No coach has ever been in trouble over 6 games" just isn't accurate.

Which coaches over the past lets say 5 years (as that's pretty much every coaches current window with each team) has been fired after coming off a great year but hitting a 6 game losing streak but still in a playoff spot. You say they exist, I say they don't so if I am wrong let me know the names I am forgetting.

The Avs DO have a low PDO over the past handful of games and hockey is largely a game impacted by luck. Thinking other wise is delusional.

So you're saying coaches with better teams who are going through the exact same thing are less in the hot seat than a coach with a worse roster? Seems backwards. My point has been that no coach has ever been on the hot seat because of a losing streak. The only time its an issue is when teams are massively underperforming or are coming off a really bad entire season and then get off to a slow start. The Avs are neither of those things and if anything the Avs have to date far surpassed preseason expectations.

This talk of Bednar being in any kid of hot seat are just a figment of fans imagination and not based in reality in the slightest. Its simply how they are choosing to cope by using him as a scapegoat for their frustrated emotions on this common bad luck streak.

 

[Meeqs]

So again, we agree, just maybe not quite on the speed that it needs to happen. That lineup wouldn't have Soda in it by the time it is ready.

I don't think we're going to agree on the timeline, and that is actually a fairly common argument right now. You could be right, but I think your timeline takes a lot more luck.

If Soda (who imo is so so underrated for all he has done for the team) is still doing well they can resign him, other wise Bowers has looked great and so has Compher. There will be a lot of options there.

Also I think there is a difference between luck and uncertainty. Hockey is definitely a business about calculated risk and finding the optimal way to balance risk vs reward within the structure of the league.

 

[Meeqs]

Keller has regressed a bit this year after having a strong year. But I mean it’s possible, its just a big risk to put all our marbles in draft picks. I mean if we can use our pick to get a 2nd liner we might as well go for it.

In the NHL today success is pretty much all about D & D. You simply have to build your core through the draft and you HAVE to be successful with you high rounders and 1st rounders. That's just the way things are. The Avs already have a lot of pieces and top 20 picks are usually impact players and top liners dropping down exponentially depending on the year but to only need a 2nd line with a top 10 and mid 1st rounder is incredibly likely.

 

[CobraAcesS]

If Soda (who imo is so so underrated for all he has done for the team) is still doing well they can resign him, other wise Bowers has looked great and so has Compher. There will be a lot of options there.

Also I think there is a difference between luck and uncertainty. Hockey is definitely a business about calculated risk and finding the optimal way to balance risk vs reward within the structure of the league.

Yep and I think you're flipping a coin hoping to fill that line in with just prospects. My personal opinion is they need to do both.

It is also easier for these young forwards to make an impact quicker on the wing. My ideal outcome is something like Hughes & Stone, or Hayes & Kakko. Something where you can be competitive while the young high upside guy gets going, and not have so much inexperience and risk of things not panning out.

Those might be ideal/pipe dreams, but it also works the same way with other guys in the top 10 as well. Say you draft Dach, but hes not going to be ready for a year or two. At least if you had Compher, Kerfoot, Kaut, and someone reliable like Stone or Hayes you could have reasonable expectations of being a perennial playoff team without that player the next year or two.

I also don't really like Kerfoot on this team beyond next year for the money he is going to cost. I think they should bridge him for two years, and then move him with a year left. Or simply trade him this off-season depending on if that top pick looks like a player who should be in the NHL next season.

 

[Meeqs]

Yep and I think you're flipping a coin hoping to fill that line in with just prospects. My personal opinion is they need to do both.

It is also easier for these young forwards to make an impact quicker on the wing. My ideal outcome is something like Hughes & Stone, or Hayes & Kakko. Something where you can be competitive while the young high upside guy gets going, and not have so much inexperience and risk of things not panning out.

Those might be ideal/pipe dreams, but it also works the same way with other guys in the top 10 as well. Say you draft Dach, but hes not going to be ready for a year or two. At least if you had Compher, Kerfoot, Kaut, and someone reliable like Stone or Hayes you could have reasonable expectations of being a perennial playoff team without that player the next year or two.

I also don't really like Kerfoot on this team beyond next year for the money he is going to cost. I think they should bridge him for two years, and then move him with a year left. Or simply trade him this off-season depending on if that top pick looks like a player who should be in the NHL next season.

I don't worry so much about the Draft picks as I think they all have a very high chance of being impact players.

The interesting and complicated part is when we talk about UFAs and who is core and who is not. UFA's are almost always a bad idea out side of depth. Look at all the guys who were signed every year and instantly was a mistake. This year is a little different and the players are much better but still just as old and will be higher risk reward as the contracts are bigger. Its just very nuanced. I do think Hayes is a trap player and that he will get overpaid and the team will regret it.

When it comes to who is core and who isn't it gets harder the further out you go, as things like what players the Avs draft and returns from possible trades (i.e Barrie) massively shift the orgs needs. I mean look a year or 2 ago when D was an issue and now its a strength. Atm Kerfoot is needed and I am not sure he will be as expensive as people think, but in 2 years from now he could be expendable. I personally like depth charts which help a lot. With things like this. But atm I think the Avs are in a wait and see mode until the draft when things get interesting.

 

[Pokecheque]

They're not re-signing Soda. He will be 35 years old by the time his contract expires. In fact, I'm almost 100% certain they'll deal him before that happens. Roy was the only guy who used him properly anyway, so it's probably just as well.

 

[Meeqs]

They're not re-signing Soda. He will be 35 years old by the time his contract expires. In fact, I'm almost 100% certain they'll deal him before that happens. Roy was the only guy who used him properly anyway, so it's probably just as well.

Soda has been carrying an insane load under Bednar and they don't really have a replacement. It wouldn't shock me to see him get a 1 or 2 year deal if he keeps playing at his level, granted it would be for less money but they guy came into the NHL pretty late so it wouldn't shock me for him to play a bit longer than he did.

I know he doesn't get the line mates he deserves but he has become one of the better shutdown 3cs in the game. Even if you disagree how Beds uses him there is no question he has excelled in his role. Guy has been so underrated since he came here.

In terms of dealing it him would purely depend on the market. Some years its possible and some years its not.

 

[The Abusement Park]

In the NHL today success is pretty much all about D & D. You simply have to build your core through the draft and you HAVE to be successful with you high rounders and 1st rounders. That's just the way things are. The Avs already have a lot of pieces and top 20 picks are usually impact players and top liners dropping down exponentially depending on the year but to only need a 2nd line with a top 10 and mid 1st rounder is incredibly likely.

And the Avs D&D outside of top 5 picks has been pretty horrible. I definitely wouldn’t want our lack of ability to develop players be the reason we miss out on a contention window.

This isn’t me saying trade away all our picks, but if we can get some established 2nd liners that fit our cores age without using the OTT pick we 100% should look into it.

 

[Pokecheque]

Soda has been carrying an insane load under Bednar and they don't really have a replacement. It wouldn't shock me to see him get a 1 or 2 year deal if he keeps playing at his level, granted it would be for less money but they guy came into the NHL pretty late so it wouldn't shock me for him to play a bit longer than he did.

I know he doesn't get the line mates he deserves but he has become one of the better shutdown 3cs in the game. Even if you disagree how Beds uses him there is no question he has excelled in his role. Guy has been so underrated since he came here.

In terms of dealing it him would purely depend on the market. Some years its possible and some years its not.

I'm just gonna keep saying it until I'm blue in the face: Soda is not a shutdown center. He's not even that great a penalty killer, to be honest.

His defensive numbers aren't that great. His value is in putting up points. Roy realized that, Bednar has not.

And I don't buy this "But who else would you put there!?" argument. They could stack the top two lines, roll out a 3rd line that would do decent defensively, and be fine.

If they don't have a viable replacement (or better yet, upgrade!) by the time a 35-year-old Soda is up for a new contract, then that is an abject FAILURE by management. There has to be a decent option at 3C between Compher, Kerfoot, Jost, Bowers, Kamenev,

 

[Foppa2118]

Which coaches over the past lets say 5 years (as that's pretty much every coaches current window with each team) has been fired after coming off a great year but hitting a 6 game losing streak but still in a playoff spot. You say they exist, I say they don't so if I am wrong let me know the names I am forgetting.

The Avs DO have a low PDO over the past handful of games and hockey is largely a game impacted by luck. Thinking other wise is delusional.

So you're saying coaches with better teams who are going through the exact same thing are less in the hot seat than a coach with a worse roster? Seems backwards. My point has been that no coach has ever been on the hot seat because of a losing streak. The only time its an issue is when teams are massively underperforming or are coming off a really bad entire season and then get off to a slow start. The Avs are neither of those things and if anything the Avs have to date far surpassed preseason expectations.

This talk of Bednar being in any kid of hot seat are just a figment of fans imagination and not based in reality in the slightest. Its simply how they are choosing to cope by using him as a scapegoat for their frustrated emotions on this common bad luck streak.

Just this year there are 4 examples of coaches being fired for less than a 6 game losing streak:

• John Stevens was fired after a win. Before that the Kings were 1-1, and before that they had a six game losing streak.
• Mike Yeo was fired after a 2 game losing streak. Before that they won a game. Before that they had a two game losing streak, and before that they had a two game winning streak.
• Joel Quenneville fired after a 5 game losing streak.
• Todd McLelan was fired after a 2 game losing streak. Before that they won a game, and before that they had a four game losing streak.

Even if you’re using “coming off a great year" as a qualifier there, it’s not accurate. The Kings finished higher with three more points than the Avs last year and fired their coach after a win this year. The Blues missed the playoffs by one point fewer than the Avs and fired Yeo after a 2 game losing streak.

The Avs didn’t have a great season last year either. They made the final wild card spot by one point, and then lost in the first round. If that gives Bednar any rope over a coach that missed the playoffs, it isn’t much at all.

I don’t think the still in the playoffs qualifier saves coaches much either. The Oilers were just outside the playoffs when they fired McLellan, but they were also tied with Arizona for a playoff spot as 3rd in the Pacific.

Whether they’re in the wild card spot, or just outside the wild card spot, isn’t going to make a ton of difference anyway. The losses, mistakes, and the uninspired play of a team are always the biggest factors.

I’m not sure why you keep bringing up PDO. Is PDO responsible for the uninspired starts to every game? Is PDO responsible for the constant bad turnovers? Is PDO responsible for the bad passes? Is PDO responsible for the bad penalties? Is PDO responsible for the PP and PK looking out of sync? This is what is killing the team lately.

And we don’t need to keep going back to the idea of scapegoating Bednar, because I’ve already stated multiple times that I don't think he's the problem, and I’m not saying he should or will get fired, just that he’ll be on the hot seat if he keeps losing.

 

[cgf]

Not fast enough? Hughes would likely play next year and a player like Cozens could be ready in 1-2. Hell even Turcotte could drop to the Avs pick and be ready in the season after next. Guys are coming in younger and younger and making an impact and the Avs window doesn't even start until next year when Makar, Kaut, etc make the jump up to the team. Then they have a window for the next 8 years.

This year doesn't matter, the Avs have the skill to win a round, maybe 2 but they don't have the depth to win it all unless players really over excelled.

Ready to play in the NHL =/= ready to anchor a cup winning 2nd line. If we don't get Hughes, odds are that that pick won't be a difference maker until their draft+3 season, at best...

That's why we can't bank on the lotto gods solving our 2nd line. If they do, awesome, but there had better be another plan in motion for the likely event that we don't end up getting a top 2 pick from OTT. And whoever we get with our own pick is most likely to affect our cup window as trade bait, or in trying to extend our window beyond the great cap cull that's coming by the summer of 2024.

This team doesn't have the skill to beat Nashville or Winnipeg as constructed. But add Makar once he's adapted to the NHL & a 2nd reliable scoring line, and they'd have the talent to win it all once they got some playoff experience. Add a 2nd reliable scoring line and they could win a series this year to start gathering that experience. That's why this year most certainly does matter. It's 1 of 5 we have before our top line starts costing us 30M a year.

If you think we have depth problems now, just wait until these 5 years that we have left, are up.

But they wouldn’t be cup caliber 2nd line centers in their first two years. Well Hughes would, but the chances of those guys being cup caliber 2nd liners by their D+2/3 season is a bet I wouldn’t want to make.

This, my friends, is a bingo...

You don't have to. I was just for the sake of argument.

If he liked the prices though, and was open to a trade, wouldn't he have done so by now though? Feels like he either doesn't want to give up assets for a top 6er period (the first option), or he doesn't like the asking price right now (the second option).

Would he? This is Joe "lemme get back to you next wee...month?" Sakic we're talking about. If he started negotiating a trade right now, there's no guarantee that it would be completed before the end of the decade

 

[Foppa2118]

Would he? This is Joe "lemme get back to you next wee...month?" Sakic we're talking about.

I know, I think we joke about Sakic being indecisive, but I don't think he's really just sitting there with no idea what to do. I think it stems from not liking the asking price, or the offers for his players like Duchene.

 

[Patagonia]

Would he? This is Joe "lemme get back to you next wee...month?" Sakic we're talking about. If he started negotiating a trade right now, there's no guarantee that it would be completed before the end of the decade

Sakic might be slow, but he is effective.

 

[cgf]

The Avs currently don't have a legit 2nd line. The current 2nd line has middle 6ers, the 3rd line has 2 4th liners and the 4th line is AHL guys when injured. The trickle down effect is real. The Avs need a high end 2c and possible a wing and then they are set and then its just adding depth on depth from there. Also once/if both Makar and Timmins get in the line up next year that is a major boost to the offense.

I mean if you have:

God line
Kerf/Cozens/Kaut
JT/Soderberg/Jost
Nieto/Sven/Kam/Calvert

That is 2 players added and a WORLD of difference. Really put in whoever you want, when you add in a legit 2nd line player like a Stone for example it makes all the lines better.

The bolded is how I know you haven't really thought your timelines through on this. What year is this magical lineup supposed to ever actually play together? Soda will be expired before Cozens is ready for the NHL, much less being the 2c on a cup winner in the NHL. Or are you suggesting that we pay a 35 year old Soderberg to do the job that Kamenev & Bowers are being groomed for?

This fusion of present & future might look pretty if we imagine them all being at the height of their powers at the same time, but that's not the reality we're stuck with.


Even on our deep blueline there's potential for us to run into similar problems as well...as EJ is already looking shakier than ever before & Cole finishing his contract playing as well as he is right now is still far from guaranteed.

Although there the timelines mesh a lot better since Makar is already in his draft+2 year, so he should be able to hit the ground running a lot faster than any non-Hughes or Kakko forward and we need a lot less from him than we do from any forward we bring in to "solve" our 2nd line. Similarly, EJ & Cole's aging shouldn't be that troubling with Barrie, Girard, Makar, Zadorov, Meloche & Timmins already in the organization either already filling or being groomed to become top 4 caliber guys.


PS I can't wait to see how many NHL games it will take folks to turn on Kaut like they have Jost...it's almost like setting unrealistic expectations for how quickly prospects will reach their potential, while banking on that potential to fill current holes, might not be the most sound approach to roster-construction or talent-development

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Ready to play in the NHL =/= ready to anchor a cup winning 2nd line. If we don't get Hughes, odds are that that pick won't be a difference maker until their draft+3 season, at best...

That's why we can't bank on the lotto gods solving our 2nd line.

This is not even close to being true. Forwards picked in the top 5 often make the NHL very early. Just look at last years draft, the first 3 forwards all are good players in their D+1 season. Its very unlikely that its going to take that many seasons for Cozens, Dach and Kakko to become really good players.

 

[shadow1]

Pierre Lacroix in the olden days would swing a big trade if he felt things were trending downward with the team, it usually did the trick. The Avs turned it completely around in the wake of the Bourque deal (Ray, not Gabriel if you were, y'know, wondering), and the trade for Konowalchuk more or less saved that season. Of course that was when the core of the team was still generationally elite with Sakic and Forsberg still in the mix. It's obviously not as easy

There's also the fact that some teams that should be selling *coughrangerscough* are staring down the rest of the league before they even think about parting with valuable assets, or even expiring ones they have no intention of bringing back.

I think we will see a couple deals as the deadline approaches, but nothing earth-shattering in Colorado.

The Konowalchuk trade was a good one...

To stray off topic for a minute, I'd argue 2003-2004 is the year Lacroix's aggressive trading cost the Avalanche a better chance at the cup. As mentioned, the Konowalchuk trade was solid, but that was six games into the season. The Avalanche were first in the NHL with 32 wins on Valentine's Day.

Then, on February 20th, Lacroix made the first of seven (!) trades he'd make between then and the March 9th deadline. The two biggest (read: dumbest) trades he made were:

• Tom Gilbert <-> Tommy Salo
• Derek Morris and Keith Ballard <-> Chris Gratton and Ossi Vaananen

Colorado won only 8 games after February 14th, failing to win the division for the first time in franchise history, and getting bounced by San Jose in the second round.

 

[Patagonia]

The bolded is how I know you haven't really thought your timelines through on this. What year is this magical lineup supposed to ever actually play together? Soda will be expired before Cozens is ready for the NHL, much less being the 2c on a cup winner in the NHL. Or are you suggesting that we pay a 35 year old Soderberg to do the job that Kamenev & Bowers are being groomed for?

This fusion of present & future might look pretty if we imagine them all being at the height of their powers at the same time, but that's not the reality we're stuck with.


Even on our deep blueline there's potential for us to run into similar problems as well...as EJ is already looking shakier than ever before & Cole finishing his contract playing as well as he is right now is still far from guaranteed.

Although there the timelines mesh a lot better since Makar is already in his draft+2 year, so he should be able to hit the ground running a lot faster than any non-Hughes or Kakko forward and we need a lot less from him than we do from any forward we bring in to "solve" our 2nd line. Similarly, EJ & Cole's aging shouldn't be that troubling with Barrie, Girard, Makar, Zadorov, Meloche & Timmins already in the organization either already filling or being groomed to become top 4 caliber guys.


PS I can't wait to see how many NHL games it will take folks to turn on Kaut like they have Jost...it's almost like setting unrealistic expectations for how quickly prospects will reach their potential, while banking on that potential to fill current holes, might not be the most sound approach to roster-construction or talent-development

Why are you so negative?

Sens pick is likely Top 5 and any of them are likely to be on the team (unless they elect the remain another year) on the team. You also failed to consider the possibility of trades and UFAs being added to the roster.

Landy - Mack - Rants (locked)
Jost - Sens Pick - Compher
Kamenev - Compher - Kaut
Lewis/Saigeon - Bowers - AVs Pick

Girard - EJ
Zadorov - Makar/Timmins
Graves - Cole

Barrie traded.

AVs players are still incredibly young and prone to mistakes along with highs/lows in their game. This season is reflective of the swings in the win/loss streaks. There is no guarantee all prospects hit their peaks at the same time, but building enough depth widens the window of opportunity for a long competitive run.

 

[CB Joe]

I hope the Avs do something with the defense other than trade Barrie. If Barrie goes the Avs should add at least 1 experienced top 4 defenseman.

 

[agentblack]

I hope we do nothing till draft day and beyond.

 

[cgf]

This is not even close to being true. Forwards picked in the top 5 often make the NHL very early. Just look at last years draft, the first 3 forwards all are good players in their D+1 season. Its very unlikely that its going to take that many seasons for Cozens, Dach and Kakko to become really good players.

Kakko isn’t a Center, though that’s on me for the poor wording to specify that I was still talking about the Center prospects in that post.

Dach’s skating can’t possibly improve enough in one year for him to be a difference making 2C as a draft+1, and Cozens needs time & polish as well as he’s still growing into his body and has a lot to learn about playing center.

So I suppose I could have written draft+2 if we assume that Dach & Cozens will both develop faster than expected, but even that would require them to be cup caliber 2Cs as rookies...which the odds are against...

 

[cgf]

Why are you so negative?

Sens pick is likely Top 5 and any of them are likely to be on the team (unless they elect the remain another year) on the team. You also failed to consider the possibility of trades and UFAs being added to the roster.

Landy - Mack - Rants (locked)
Jost - Sens Pick - Compher
Kamenev - Compher - Kaut
Lewis/Saigeon - Bowers - AVs Pick

Girard - EJ
Zadorov - Makar/Timmins
Graves - Cole

Barrie traded.

AVs players are still incredibly young and prone to mistakes along with highs/lows in their game. This season is reflective of the swings in the win/loss streaks. There is no guarantee all prospects hit their peaks at the same time, but building enough depth widens the window of opportunity for a long competitive run.

Because the salary cap exists.

Unless that pick is Hughes or we’re trading Barrie+++ for Drai, that’s not a cup caliber lineup

 

[AvsFanInMichigan]

Landy - Mack - Rants (locked)
Jost - Sens Pick - Compher
Kamenev - Compher - Kaut
Lewis/Saigeon - Bowers - AVs Pick

Girard - EJ
Zadorov - Makar/Timmins
Graves - Cole

MacKinnon- Landeskog-Rantanen
Silfverberg/Panarin/Stone-Avs Pick-Jost
Kaut-Kerfoot-JTC
Nieto-Soderberg-Calvert
Johnson-Makar
Zadorov-Barrie
Timmins-Girard

 

[Foppa2118]

I hope the Avs do something with the defense other than trade Barrie. If Barrie goes the Avs should add at least 1 experienced top 4 defenseman.

I could see them bringing in someone cheap on a one year deal as a Nemeth replacement.

I think it will depend on a few different things though. If Timmins comes back and how he looks? How they feel about Meloche's NHL readiness? And how Graves plays the rest of the year.

Graves has looked real solid to me, and I'm not sure he's just playing over his head. He's got good mobility, and isn't terrible moving the puck. If he can keep playing steady defense, he might carve out a role.

 

[CB Joe]

I could see them bringing in someone cheap on a one year deal as a Nemeth replacement.

I think it will depend on a few different things though. If Timmins comes back and how he looks? How they feel about Meloche's NHL readiness? And how Graves plays the rest of the year.

Graves has looked real solid to me, and I'm not sure he's just playing over his head. He's got good mobility, and isn't terrible moving the puck. If he can keep playing steady defense, he might carve out a role.

When Cole steps in and is one of your best defeseman all year, you know you need upgrades.